Prediction Do you believe the AFL will ever be the same again?

[Cuzz09]

Membership numbers next year will be huge!

Membership prices will be huge too and add in people struggling for money/jobs the resurgence may not be as great as expected.

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[RUNVS]

On "On the Couch" they even suggested the AFL might need to be only Semi-Professional again for the next few years.

 

[Cuzz09]

On "On the Couch" they even suggested the AFL might need to be only Semi-Professional again for the next few years.

Hey they've been reading BigFooty. I suggested that the other day

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[RUNVS]

Hey they've been reading BigFooty. I suggested that the other day

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I would rather a pay restructure to avoid that.

So for instance the salary cap gets reduced to $5 million per year but the minimum salary stays at $55,000. It means the rookies are paid enough so they don't need a second job and while the middle tier and top tier players won't be on nearly as much they would still be making very good money compared to the general community.

 

[Cuzz09]

Sounds good. Let's do it.

Ok. Now this virus. Ummm... just vacuum it out the air

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[legend166]

Kinda feel that selling broadcast rights to television & streaming networks is an outdated model... if the AFL had their own on-demand service they'd still have a revenue stream.

Might be something to look at while you've got some downtime Gil.

So the TV rights deal is valued at $418 million a year.

What do you think is a reasonable price for an on-demand service? At $200 a year you'd need 2 million subscriptions to match that revenue. Kayo was able to get 400k subscribers after a year at $25/month (so $300 a year) but that includes a heap of other sport on top of the AFL. Now of course if you ripped the AFL off FTA and put it on-demand only you'd see a spike. But could you get to 2 million?

Would you then also be willing to give up the exposure that FTA brings? Something that is in 90% of homes? We've seen what happens to sports worldwide when things go behind a paywall - the rusted on fans stick around but the sport has trouble growing because there's a huge barrier. Look at cricket in the UK for a great example.

The other thing is signing a long term TV rights deal gives huge certainty (well, it did until we had a once in a 100 years viral pandemic). The AFL can easily forecast revenues, which help them set the TPP, football department spending, etc.

Sure, selling rights might not be the thing to do in 20, 30 years. But as long as they're willing to pay the money I don't see why you'd stop at this stage.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Optimistic if the powers that be finish doing what they want with the virus then footy returns by July and the AFL exploit it doing s**t they've always wanted by making games shorter mid week footy and GF at home team venue.Geelong get KP final(Can no longer argue they give a s**t about it being the people's game or maximum attendance when they played in front of no one)
Pessimistic If it drags to a mid 2021 return than contracts cut and the AFL won't be able to bail everyone out. Bye bye suns giants possibly st Kilda north and lions.
Tassie get a team as the AFL won't have the luxury of playing silly buggers with 30 year generation plans and would need a new lean team who could spend minimal amounts yet generate instant support.

VIC clubs will die before Giants and Suns.

 

[ziad]

Hey they've been reading BigFooty. I suggested that the other day

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I think Mr Healy is the only one on the show that can read

 

[RUNVS]

VIC clubs will die before Giants and Suns.

In terms of a rounded competition it would be ideal to have 2 clubs in both New South Wales and Queensland. It won't be easy to keep it that way though.

 

[ziad]

VIC clubs will die before Giants and Suns.

The potential audience hence revenue is, nationally, proportional the the corona virus numbers - thats ths future.

 

[ziad]

I would rather a pay restructure to avoid that.

So for instance the salary cap gets reduced to $5 million per year but the minimum salary stays at $55,000. It means the rookies are paid enough so they don't need a second job and while the middle tier and top tier players won't be on nearly as much they would still be making very good money compared to the general community.

One problem - I would not pay to watch a rookie - only the guns draw crowds

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Don't think any club will die, they'll all lay dormant for a time.

 

[RUNVS]

One problem - I would not pay to watch a rookie - only the guns draw crowds

They do, but we need to avoid going semi-professional as that would be a MASSIVE step backwards.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

I'm expecting the AFL to bounce back with minimal long term damage.

In the end it could work great for them. Other sports down the relevancy list will be decimated.

 

[Byron_Clanger]

Where the hell did all the money go?

This is what happens when they AFL have to keep forking over money to the poverty clubs, starting a random woman's national competition that nobody asked for (I was fine with the women's state league comp until actual talent comes through) and giving 25 MILLION to the Gold Coast last year, a team that'll be dead in 7 or 8 years because no one cares about them.

Just pissing away money left and right

 

[Run n Spread]

VIC clubs will die before Giants and Suns.

There would be a riot. Only reason giants and suns exist is due to the tv revenue they bring in due to the extra game as a result. (Clubs agreed to having them totally on the AFL teat in exchange for some welfare)But they are totally bankrolled by the AFL. More than any of the Vic clubs. If the AFL have to cut the purse strings and some go under than suns and giants are first.

 

[RUNVS]

There would be a riot. Only reason giants and suns exist is due to the tv revenue they bring in due to the extra game as a result. (Clubs agreed to having them totally on the AFL teat in exchange for some welfare)But they are totally bankrolled by the AFL. More than any of the Vic clubs. If the AFL have to cut the purse strings and some go under than suns and giants are first.

another reason they exist is to expand the game.

 

[Run n Spread]

another reason they exist is to expand the game.

I know but if the league is dying the AFL won't have the luxury of speculative dreams that hemorrhage money. Suns were making progress but can't win a game and 1.5 years with no games will kill them.
Giants still struggling with crowds to spite being a top team. If this year is compromised there goes the granny momenteum

 

[RUNVS]

I know but if the league is dying the AFL won't have the luxury of speculative dreams that hemorrhage money. Suns were making progress but can't win a game and 1.5 years with no games will kill them.
Giants still struggling with crowds to spite being a top team. If this year is compromised there goes the granny momenteum

That is true. I just feel really bad for them as Gold Coast have never had any on field success and they are finally building a group of talented young players. By 2021 all those young players are likely going to be at other clubs. GWS too.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

GWS and Suns exist to expand the game. People would be angry if the 10th or 9th or 8th Melbourne club got booted but Melbourne won't stop watching.

 

[Freshwater]

Where the hell did all the money go?

This is what happens when they AFL have to keep forking over money to the poverty clubs, starting a random woman's national competition that nobody asked for (I was fine with the women's state league comp until actual talent comes through) and giving 25 MILLION to the Gold Coast last year, a team that'll be dead in 7 or 8 years because no one cares about them.

Just pissing away money left and right

The so-called small Melbourne clubs are still massive in a national sense and quite large still in a world wide sense. Their memberships are huge. Their supporters numbers are massive too. They get dudded on the fixture, that’s where the compensation comes in. If we get a fair ‘draw’ not a FIXture things would be much better for them.
The bleeding of money the AFL waste on expansion teams, AFLW, corporate salaries and corporate functions etc is not sustainable. The old adage of saving when the going is good and spending when not good, can’t happen, because we spent when things were good.

 

[RUNVS]

The so-called small Melbourne clubs are still massive in a national sense and quite large still in a world wide sense. Their memberships are huge. Their supporters numbers are massive too. They get dudded on the fixture, that’s where the compensation comes in. If we get a fair ‘draw’ not a FIXture things would be much better for them.
The bleeding of money the AFL waste on expansion teams, AFLW, corporate salaries and corporate functions etc is not sustainable. The old adage of saving when the going is good and spending when not good, can’t happen, because we spent when things were good.

AFL tried to introduce a much stricter football department cap but Eddie and a few of the other clubs got very upset at that, claiming it would somehow hurt the game or something. The AFL as an organisation would be in a lot better position now if they grew a backbone and just ignored Eddie and his self serving arguments.

 

[Freshwater]

At least Eddie was using their own money. The AFL are using everyone’s money.
But what Eddie didn’t get and never seemed to get, was sure he had a big club, but if Collingwood gets all the best time slots eg ANZAC day, Queens birthday etc is that they can leverage off that AFL gift every year. How in any sporting competition is that fair?

 

[RUNVS]

At least Eddie was using their own money. The AFL are using everyone’s money.
But what Eddie didn’t get and never seemed to get, was sure he had a big club, but if Collingwood gets all the best time slots eg ANZAC day, Queens birthday etc is that they can leverage off that AFL gift every year. How in any sporting competition is that fair?

The problem is if the football department cap was tighter it would mean clubs like St Kilda and Western Bulldogs could turn a real profit while not being disadvantaged as the bigger clubs like Collingwood and West Coast would be spending the same on their football department. Before (and even now) it was an arms race. Collingwood and West Coast spent an absolute fortune on their football departments and the smaller clubs felt they needed to spend more than they really had just to keep up.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

One positive for the AFL is the worse things get the more extreme they can be in their decisions.
Drop the salary cap by $2mil for future years. (about 15%?)
Drop the footy department spending cap by $2mil
The AFL and club headquarters find $28mil in savings PA. I imagine this will be easier then people expect.
That’s $100mil PA of savings for the industry if things go near back to near normal next season. To add to that I’m assuming the AFL were expecting to already boast huge profits before Corona came around so that would almost cover most of the potential future economic downturn. They can cover a bloody big loan without having to destroy the comp and shut down clubs.

Edit. The causal fan wouldn’t even notice a change in the competition. It is just the end of the gravy train