Prediction Do you believe the AFL will ever be the same again?

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

At least Eddie was using their own money. The AFL are using everyone’s money.
But what Eddie didn’t get and never seemed to get, was sure he had a big club, but if Collingwood gets all the best time slots eg ANZAC day, Queens birthday etc is that they can leverage off that AFL gift every year. How in any sporting competition is that fair?

They try and even it out by AFL distributions but I totally agree.

 

[Breretonisahood]

In terms of a rounded competition it would be ideal to have 2 clubs in both New South Wales and Queensland. It won't be easy to keep it that way though.

It will be if the NRL collapses due to its precarious financial position. That would be THE time to capitalise on the money spent to keep GWS and GCS afloat. Either way, I don’t think the AFL will fold any clubs. They will simply allocate whatever reduced funds are available and if some clubs are so financially shot that they can’t continue or even compete at AFL level, they will die a natural death.

 

[RUNVS]

It will be if the NRL collapses due to its precarious financial position. That would be THE time to capitalise on the money spent to keep GWS and GCS afloat. Either way, I don’t think the AFL will fold any clubs. They will simply allocate whatever reduced funds are available and if some clubs are so financially shot that they can’t continue or even compete at AFL level, they will die a natural death.

Reading over the NRL articles it seems like the Titans are one of the most vulnerable clubs in terms of going under. If the AFL can somehow keep the Suns afloat they could end up being the only professional football club in the city.

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

Reading over the NRL articles it seems like the Titans are one of the most vulnerable clubs in terms of going under. If the AFL can somehow keep the Suns afloat they could end up being the only professional football club in the city.

Exactly why the GC will be kept and I bet secretly the AFL will be having their fingers crossed the Titans fail.

 

[Damon_3388]

Also if I am right I have no idea what is going to happen with player contracts as technically players are contracted to the AFL, not their clubs, so if the AFL goes belly up then every AFL contract will be null and void, so while majority of clubs will be back in 2021 I think there is a real chance each clubs list will be vastly different as it is like every player all at once becoming an unrestricted free agent.

Sidebar - Of the bolded was already the case, why is there so much fuss made about contracted players being traded?

 

[deltablues]

They try and even it out by AFL distributions but I totally agree.

Ask the TV mandarins.

 

[deltablues]

Exactly why the GC will be kept and I bet secretly the AFL will be having their fingers crossed the Titans fail.

And in that context it's reminiscent of 2 bald men arguing over a comb.

 

[Toump Ass]

So the TV rights deal is valued at $418 million a year.

What do you think is a reasonable price for an on-demand service? At $200 a year you'd need 2 million subscriptions to match that revenue. Kayo was able to get 400k subscribers after a year at $25/month (so $300 a year) but that includes a heap of other sport on top of the AFL. Now of course if you ripped the AFL off FTA and put it on-demand only you'd see a spike. But could you get to 2 million?

The broadcasters can pay $418 mil because of advertising. An on-demand service with all live games as the alternative to Foxtel or Kayo could probably get a fair bit of advertising meaning they'd need less subscribers but even then remove kayo and Foxtel from the picture (who literally wants Foxtel for anything aside from AFL?) and you'd have a few.

There's 1 million AFL members as it is, I'm sure the AFL could mandate a subscription with a membership

+ Blockbusters games (ANZAC Day, finals) etc. could still be on FTA, along with a small number of games (on delay or whatever).

I reckon the AFL could make it work.

 

[legend166]

The so-called small Melbourne clubs are still massive in a national sense and quite large still in a world wide sense. Their memberships are huge. Their supporters numbers are massive too. They get dudded on the fixture, that’s where the compensation comes in. If we get a fair ‘draw’ not a FIXture things would be much better for them.
The bleeding of money the AFL waste on expansion teams, AFLW, corporate salaries and corporate functions etc is not sustainable. The old adage of saving when the going is good and spending when not good, can’t happen, because we spent when things were good.

I'm all for a fairer fixture, but I think you're being a bit naive if you think it's the only thing stopping the smaller Melbourne clubs from being fully financially independent (well, as much as any club is since everyone gets money from the AFL). There's nothing 'huge' or 'massive' in a national sense about

The smaller Melbourne clubs basically survive off two things - higher than average AFL distributions, and increased crowds from playing against the bigger Melbourne clubs. When you look at the crowd averages against non-Victorian teams, 16/17k is pretty much the norm. That's a much more accurate indicator of support than being able to draw 20k Collingwood or Tigers fans to a game. There's a reason these are the games that get sold around the country.

 

[legend166]

The broadcasters can pay $418 mil because of advertising. An on-demand service with all live games as the alternative to Foxtel or Kayo could probably get a fair bit of advertising meaning they'd need less subscribers but even then remove kayo and Foxtel from the picture (who literally wants Foxtel for anything aside from AFL?) and you'd have a few.

There's 1 million AFL members as it is, I'm sure the AFL could mandate a subscription with a membership

+ Blockbusters games (ANZAC Day, finals) etc. could still be on FTA, along with a small number of games (on delay or whatever).

I reckon the AFL could make it work.

So you want the AFL to sell an ad-supported subscription service subsidised by a significant increase in membership fees?

That's a bold strategy Cotton.

 

[Toump Ass]

So you want the AFL to sell an ad-supported subscription service subsidised by a significant increase in membership fees?

That's a bold strategy Cotton.

No significant increase necessary to memberships necessary, but a nominal fee would help. Get 1 million subscribers from Rupert and sell a small number of games FTA. My numbers check out, I can send you the spreadsheet if you like?

 

[t_94]

AFL won't be able to afford to have an 18 team comp. GWS & Gold Coast are in trouble.. The Suns and Giants cost the AFL a heap of cash to run. This could be 1989 all over again... time to rattle tins. It will take years to recover. I can't believe this is happening. It will never be the same again. The days of having up to 10+ people in the coaches box are gone... will go back to the days of head coach and assistant plus maybe 1 or 2 others. We are going to see some old school ways for a very long time.
Could we possibly play 4 extra games next year? Could we introduce a wild card round to generate extra revenue?

This will be good for footy imo. Lots of assistants, afl admin and media get paid a lot to do not much.

 

[blueblooded]

This will be good for footy imo. Lots of assistants, afl admin and media get paid a lot to do not much.

Exactly - the lot of them just over analyse the s**t of the game. if this ends up meaning less coaches and paralysis by analysis even better. We might see a return to more simple football, more player power in terms of skill and instinctive play and an outright better game in line with 90's early 2000 football which was much more enjoyable to watch on the whole. Could be the best thing to come out of this.

 

[jatz14]

Exactly.

I don't think they will get back on the park this year. But there is too much public support for the AFL and most of the clubs for it to go under. Too many people that care too much about it.

I do wonder about the AFL's financial management, given they have had two decades of ludicrous TV revenue. Surely they should have some resilience. This is a problem with our culture though, we don't dampen our spending when the times are good.

Your agreeing that they will just get on with it next year, and at the same time questioning their resilience?

You realise most not for profits suddenly losing hundreds of millions in revenue go belly up fast?

Either they aren't resilient, and it's unlikely we have a comp anything like what it was.

Or we do continue on as is, in which case their resilience for a pro sport is remarkable.

On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[jatz14]

It’s not the vaccine that’s needed. Human populations have encountered viruses for millennia, way before vaccines. It‘S heard immunity that will overcome it it. Unfortunately many will die before then. But it won’t be anywhere near 18 months.

Ok expert.

Just had a meeting with a hospital CEO, and they are being told 18 months.

We will get a peak, it will die down, but then it takes off again, and we get another smaller peak. This will keep repeating. The peak gets smaller because of herd immunity. But it will take 18 months of building herd immunity until it's enough to control the disease. That's if it's been established that covid 19 confers lasting immunity, and it doesn't mutate.

That's what he has been told, if you let me know why his advice is wrong, I will let him know.

He will probably be relieved.

On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[footy75]

I have a feeling it will come back bigger and better than ever.

 

[JM#1]

Thanks for stopping by Gold Coast, all the best.

 

[Cuzz09]

I have a feeling it will come back bigger and better than ever.

You're dreaming. Its over.

Nah you're probably right.

Or something else.

On SM-G925I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Burzum]

I have a feeling it will come back bigger and better than ever.

I think it'll be better, for sure.

Where the hell did all the money go?

This is what happens when they AFL have to keep forking over money to the poverty clubs, starting a random woman's national competition that nobody asked for (I was fine with the women's state league comp until actual talent comes through) and giving 25 MILLION to the Gold Coast last year, a team that'll be dead in 7 or 8 years because no one cares about them.

Just pissing away money left and right

Clubs have been living above their means for years. They never expected such a crisis to hit where the AFL wouldn't/couldn't bail them out.

 

[deltablues]

Ok expert.

Just had a meeting with a hospital CEO, and they are being told 18 months.

We will get a peak, it will die down, but then it takes off again, and we get another smaller peak. This will keep repeating. The peak gets smaller because of herd immunity. But it will take 18 months of building herd immunity until it's enough to control the disease. That's if it's been established that covid 19 confers lasting immunity, and it doesn't mutate.

That's what he has been told, if you let me know why his advice is wrong, I will let him know.

He will probably be relieved.

On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app

Noted. But deaths?

This is a beat-up.

Global infection:deaths % still less than the flu. The Italian death rate is, in Italian reports, only 8% of the total, due to Italian reporting protocol. Which is about 1.8% direct deaths excluding pre-existing illnesses.

Reported by the MSM?

No. Doesn't fit the agenda. Cuz 'Pandemic'. Chicken Little. Fomenting panic, govt imposing restrictions, panic crashing the markets. Population cowed and coralled.

80,000 Americans died from the flu in 2017. My bar remained open. My planes flew. So far CV has killed this year as many Americans who have died of the flu this year in a week.

But, hey, never waste a crisis.

PS for any respondents, ask yourself this Q - are you libertarian or authoritarian?

PPS my current restrictions here in Detroit [not so bad, so far]

[TD valign="top"] https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98159-522649--,00.html [/TD]

 

[Freshwater]

Ok expert.

Just had a meeting with a hospital CEO, and they are being told 18 months.

We will get a peak, it will die down, but then it takes off again, and we get another smaller peak. This will keep repeating. The peak gets smaller because of herd immunity. But it will take 18 months of building herd immunity until it's enough to control the disease. That's if it's been established that covid 19 confers lasting immunity, and it doesn't mutate.

That's what he has been told, if you let me know why his advice is wrong, I will let him know.

He will probably be relieved.

On moto g(6) plus using BigFooty.com mobile app

So-called experts get it wrong more than they get it correct. Historians are better to ask. To know history is the beginning of wisdom.

 

[The Blue Baggers]

Can’t see GWS, Gold Coast surviving, they are living off AFL life support, which probably won’t be there after this.

St K, North, Dogs, Dees and Lions will all be in strife too.

Yep .... maybe the Lions survive to keep selling the TV rights as a national competition

or Docklands Stadium is sold to keep the majority of clubs afloat except probably GC & Giants !!

 

[jatz14]

So-called experts get it wrong more than they get it correct. Historians are better to ask. To know history is the beginning of wisdom.

People that disagree with experts get it wrong significantly more often than that.

In debates like this, the choice isn't between the right answer, and the wrong answer, its between a wrong answer, and a worse answer.

 

[jatz14]

Noted. But deaths?

This is a beat-up.

Global infection:deaths % still less than the flu. The Italian death rate is, in Italian reports, only 8% of the total, due to Italian reporting protocol. Which is about 1.8% direct deaths excluding pre-existing illnesses.

Reported by the MSM?

No. Doesn't fit the agenda. Cuz 'Pandemic'. Chicken Little. Fomenting panic, govt imposing restrictions, panic crashing the markets. Population cowed and coralled.

80,000 Americans died from the flu in 2017. My bar remained open. My planes flew. So far CV has killed this year as many Americans who have died of the flu this year in a week.

But, hey, never waste a crisis.

PS for any respondents, ask yourself this Q - are you libertarian or authoritarian?

PPS my current restrictions here in Detroit [not so bad, so far]

[TD valign="top"] https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98159-522649--,00.html [/TD]

I do get it, Morrison, has put his whole political career on budget deficit control. The government had a medical quack come into cabinet who went boogedy boogedy boogedy, and then the government went, lets spend hundreds of billions of dollars and throw 20% of Australians out of work and wreck the economy for a decade.

Obviously they lacked someone with your keen insight and cutting intellect.

 

[jatz14]

So-called experts get it wrong more than they get it correct. Historians are better to ask. To know history is the beginning of wisdom.

And so-called experts, its a give away line of someone uncomfortable with the idea that there are people that know so much about a subject that their own opinion on that subject becomes idiotic in comparison. People are generally unable to conceive of themselves as idiots, even if its applied to a limited subject. So `so-called expert` becomes a defence mechanism.