Prediction Do you think we make finals?

[Mr MysteryGuest]

6 games we will be heavy favourite - West Coast twice, Richmond, Kangaroos and Melbourne - that is 5 so who is the 6th?

Second showdown should be a 5+ goal win. It’s our home game and ports season will be over by then

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Why Melbourne?

The last 5 H2H is with the Dees winning 4-1, similarly with the Tigers too. Nicks history suggests we will struggle against these teams.

Sure we may go in as favourites? But heavy? Wowee. Sure we may win, but its not a lock.

In fact I would even argue, there is probably only the two Eagles games are deadset locks for us to win. Dont underestimate the Roos in that final H&A game at Marvel, as that will be "their" GF for the year.

All those games should be locks , even for a mediocre coach

 

[WetCrow1991]

Are we not far off repeatedly, or do the top sides do just enough to beat us?

Based on our record it is very likely the latter.

 

[Dangarman]

We were awful against Fremantle. Never in control that night.

Just my luck to pick our worst game of the year to be there at the stadium.

 

[Samcro24]

Are we not far off repeatedly, or do the top sides do just enough to beat us?

Based on our record it is very likely the latter.

Yep.

We set ourselves for these games, play out of our skins. Opposition gets it done when it matters, as good sides do. It’s not a big matchup for them, it’s only a team that generally finishes in a spot ending in “teenth”.

Also explains why we tend to struggle against the middle of the pack.

 

[Freomaniac]

I will stick with my original prediction I said to my crows mates.

Crows will make finals with 14 wins and 9 losses. A home Elim final and a finals win.

The crows have a draw in round 14 or 15. The draw is interesting after the crows bye. At least 3 away games are "winnable" vs tigers, eagles and North Melbourne. I expect crows to win the showdown in round 20 as well

 

[Freomaniac]

Way too early to say, but going to be touch & go.

There will be decent sides miss finals this year.... hopefully we are not one of them.

I think the crows will sneak in to a finals spot. Crows toughest part of the draw was between rounds 1 to 10.

Crows have a few winnable games after the crows round 15 bye

 

[AFC979810]

Are we not far off repeatedly, or do the top sides do just enough to beat us?

Based on our record it is very likely the latter.

Huh? They are not mutually exclusive.

Considering we have lost by very small margins to the top sides over the past couple of years - we are not far off and the top sides do just enough to beat us.

 

[Doctor B]

Nicks is in his sixth year. He has a good list, ranked seventh by age.
Recruited three first 18 players.
Given an easy draw, ranked equal thirteenth hardest by the AFL.
Had a good run with injuries after 10 rounds.
The club hired him a director of coaching.
We have had the best high performance manager in Australia since 2022.

The expectation needs to be we will definitely make finals.

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[moogerfooger]

I'm bullish about our chances. The draw is about to open up for us a bit.

This has always been my rule of thumb -

Home state is least a 3 goal advantage against a comparable team. We're currently 6th, which I think is about right given our draw so far. We should expect to beat anyone outside the top four at home. Against top four, I think we're 50/50 at home, expect to lose away. Against sides 9-14 we should expect to win at home and 50/50 away. Against 15-18 we should expect to win home or away. Showdowns are always 50/50.

For a club in our position, the Geelong game is the only outlier so far. As badly as we played, losing to Freo away should still be considered an expected result. From here, a lot is going to depend on who gets who at a good time in terms of injuries and form.

A v WC - win
S v A - 50/50
A v B - 50/50
H v A - loss
R v A - win
A v M - win
WB v A - loss
A v GC - 50/50
A v PA - 50/50
A v H - 50/50
WC v A - win
A v Co - 50/50
NM v A - win

We're currently 6-4. Split the 50/50 and we should end up with a minimum of 14-9 which last year would have been enough to finish 6th, in other words right where we are now. Brisbane won the flag after finishing 14-8-1 and Collingwood missed the eight with the equivalent of 13-10 so it shows how slim the margins are.

 

[SugarShane]

Second showdown should be a 5+ goal win. It’s our home game and ports season will be over by then

Should be. They've been known to get up for their Grand Final though. Especially if they have nothing else to play for.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Should be. They've been known to get up for their Grand Final though. Especially if they have nothing else to play for.

Not really. Maybe 15 years ago.

There are a bunch of myths about the Showdown people repeat that don't really bear scrutiny

 

[Coopers]

Squiggle ladder predictor has us finishing on 14 wins in 6th spot. An elimination final against Hawthorn in Adelaide.

Christ, imagine playing Hawthorn in a final.

AFL will need a lot of time to get through all the umpiring apology statements. They better start drafting them now.

 

[Dangarman]

Fun fact - After last night, the Dogs have played every team we have played so far, and have exactly the same record against them:

Dogs have played one extra game against Brisbane, for a loss.

Wins vs:
North H+36, H+16
Carl H+60, A+8
StK H+63, H+71
GWS H+18, A+32
Ess A+61, H+91
Port A+5, H+90

Lost to:
CWD A-10, H-6
Freo A-18, A-16
Gold Coast A-1, A-10
Geelong H-19, A-14

 

[cleanhands]

We have a finals list irrespective and of Nicks

 

[jenny61_99]

Squiggle ladder predictor now has us finishing fourth with a QF against Pies at the G.

 

[NSolis]

Squiggle ladder predictor now has us finishing fourth with a QF against Pies at the G.

For what it's worth it will give you a different result every time you run it. It's just simulating a plausible outcome for the season.

I had to run it a lot of times just now to find a result which had us finishing 4th, which was 15-8 with a 125% percentage. Involved Brisbane slipping to 6th and Hawthorn to 7th in a very close season. Looking at the results this involved us beating Brisbane (by 102 points!) and then Hawthorn to go into the bye 9-5. We got to 12-6 from there before losing to Port and finished the season with a win over Collingwood and a loss to North. You can use your own judgement about how realistic that one is...

Didn't get any results at all where we missed the 8 though - clearly sees that as fairly unlikely.

edit: Got another top 4 result. This one was wins against Sydney and Brisbane before a loss to Hawthorn, 3 losses in a row to Melbourne, WB and GC, and then 5 wins in a row to finish the season. Obviously beating Collingwood and Brisbane is the key to finishing top 4 for us.

 

[Redline]

Big win for GWS today. They should win their next two which sets them up for a real top 8 shot.

I have six 'locks' to get to 14 wins
Geelong
Collingwood
Bulldogs
Brisbane
Hawks
Suns

Starting to think GWS might get their as well. Puts us up against Freo for the last spot as I don't think the Bombers or anyone else will make it.

The Swans are good enough but looking unlikely.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Currently we have the 3rd best points for...
104.6 Bulldogs
101.3 Suns
101.2 Crows

Also, 3rd best points against...
69.6 Pies
76.6 Suns
77.5 Crows

 

[Scorpus]

Four remaining definite wins: Richmond, West Coast, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide

That gets us to 11 wins. Then we need to win two of the following

Sydney away (Nicks has never beaten them from 6 attempts, poor form)
Brisbane (1 win from 7 attempts)
Hawthorn away in Tasmania
Melbourne (1 win from 6 attempts, building form)
Western Bulldogs (2 wins from 5 attempts)
Gold Coast (1 win from 6 attempts against Hardwick)
Hawthorn at home (1 win against Mitchell from 4 attempts)
Collingwood (Nicks has never beaten them from 8 attempts)

Even if we win 2 we'd probably need to maintain a healthy percentage to make finals

 

[Billy Cart]

Could make 5th if lucky.

 

[Redline]

Big win for GWS today. They should win their next two which sets them up for a real top 8 shot.

I have six 'locks' to get to 14 wins
Geelong
Collingwood
Bulldogs
Brisbane
Hawks
Suns

Starting to think GWS might get their as well. Puts us up against Freo for the last spot as I don't think the Bombers or anyone else will make it.

The Swans are good enough but looking unlikely.

Swans are out now. I think there are two spots available between us, Freo and GWS.

Neither the Bombers or.Melbourne will win enough.

 

[kirky]

Squiggle ladder predictor now has us finishing fourth with a QF against Pies at the G.

No, not the Pies!

 

[kirky]

Four remaining definite wins: Richmond, West Coast, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide

That gets us to 11 wins. Then we need to win two of the following

Sydney away (Nicks has never beaten them from 6 attempts, poor form)
Brisbane (1 win from 7 attempts)
Hawthorn away in Tasmania
Melbourne (1 win from 6 attempts, building form)
Western Bulldogs (2 wins from 5 attempts)
Gold Coast (1 win from 6 attempts against Hardwick)
Hawthorn at home (1 win against Mitchell from 4 attempts)
Collingwood (Nicks has never beaten them from 8 attempts)

Even if we win 2 we'd probably need to maintain a healthy percentage to make finals

Our biggest loss has been Geelong (19 points).

We rarely get belted.

 

[Samcro24]

Four remaining definite wins: Richmond, West Coast, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide

That gets us to 11 wins. Then we need to win two of the following

Sydney away (Nicks has never beaten them from 6 attempts, poor form)
Brisbane (1 win from 7 attempts)
Hawthorn away in Tasmania
Melbourne (1 win from 6 attempts, building form)
Western Bulldogs (2 wins from 5 attempts)
Gold Coast (1 win from 6 attempts against Hardwick)
Hawthorn at home (1 win against Mitchell from 4 attempts)
Collingwood (Nicks has never beaten them from 8 attempts)

Even if we win 2 we'd probably need to maintain a healthy percentage to make finals

More than two of those are winnable.

Yet you couldn’t really count on us winning more than 2.