Prediction Do you think we make finals?

[I Lost My Keays]

So we only lose one game until end of season. Who do we lose to?

I didn’t specify that we will lose one game? I think we will lose to Dogs and Pies though

 

[Peter Doherty]

My worst case scenario ladder where we only win the Melbourne, Eagles and North matches from here has us finishing 8th on percentage equal with Freo in 9th.

 

[pjcrows]

If our only losses are Dogs and Pies - a big if - we'll still get Top 4 I'd say, with our percentage.

I still think Hawthorn will be very difficult.

 

[kirky]

I didn’t specify that we will lose one game? I think we will lose to Dogs and Pies though

You’ve said we will finish with a 17-6 record, we are currently 10-5.

 

[kirky]

And more stats on First Crack -

We are No 1 for contested marks

And contested mark differential is +66

Brisbane, Collingwood and Western Bulldogs are all negative on contested mark differential and Geelong is barely +ve.

We have the weapons but we can’t screw it up by having spuds in the side.

 

[rabidcrow]

Round	Date	Location	Home Team	Away Team	Result
1	16/03/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	St Kilda	W
2	22/03/25	MCG	Essendon	Adelaide Crows	W
3	30/03/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	North Melbourne	W
4	5/04/25	People First Stadium	Gold Coast SUNS	Adelaide Crows	L
5	10/04/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Geelong Cats	L
6	19/04/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	GWS GIANTS	L
7	25/04/25	Optus Stadium	Fremantle	Adelaide Crows	L
8	3/05/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Carlton	W
9	10/05/25	Adelaide Oval	Port Adelaide	Adelaide Crows	W
10	17/05/25	MCG	Collingwood	Adelaide Crows	L
11	25/05/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	West Coast Eagles	W
12	31/05/25	SCG	Sydney Swans	Adelaide Crows	L
13	6/06/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Brisbane Lions	L
14	13/06/25	UTAS Stadium	Hawthorn	Adelaide Crows	L
16	28/06/25	MCG	Richmond	Adelaide Crows	W
17	4/07/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Melbourne	W
18	11/07/25	Mars Stadium	Western Bulldogs	Adelaide Crows	L
19	18/07/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Gold Coast SUNS	W
20	25/07/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Port Adelaide	W
21	1/08/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Hawthorn	L
22	8/08/25	Optus Stadium	West Coast Eagles	Adelaide Crows	W
23	15/08/25	Adelaide Oval	Adelaide Crows	Collingwood	L
24	22/08/25	Marvel Stadium	North Melbourne	Adelaide Crows	W
				TOTAL SEASON WINS	12

How are your predictions tracking

 

[rabidcrow]

Definitely. Over the next 2 rounds there's 15 opportunities for a bottom 9 side to cause an upset. Unless I (and any other tipster not game to try to pick the upset) get two perfect rounds of tipping, there will be at least one.

Even if every favourite was a 95% chance of winning, then statistically there is only a 46% chance they all get up. (0.95^15). If you reduce that to 90%, then it is only a 20% chance.

Just hoping it's not us against Richmond or Melbourne.

Melbourne another danger game - have won 6 from 8 at AO against us

 

[kirky]

How are your predictions tracking

He has got three wrong (GWS, Sydney and Brisbane) so on target for 15 but assumes we lose to Bulldogs, Hawks and Collingwood.

Personally, we will sneak two of those three and finish on 17 wins.

 

[kirky]

Melbourne another danger game - have won 6 from 8 at AO against us

Doubt it will happen.

This isn’t the same side as any of the others - our worst performance was against Geelong after short break from Gold Coast.

 

[Amacca 23]

Doubt it will happen.

This isn’t the same side as any of the others - our worst performance was against Geelong after short break from Gold Coast.

Think we finish 3rd

 

[FR0GGY]

The bulldogs game the crucial one

 

[Amacca 23]

The bulldogs game the crucial one

Is top 2 possible if we pinch that game ?

 

[FR0GGY]

Is top 2 possible if we pinch that game ?

Think Geelong will have that.
They Only play 1 top 9 team on the run home

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Includes an umpire bias.

Must have updated after 2017

 

[MrBarry]

Doubt it will happen.

This isn’t the same side as any of the others - our worst performance was against Geelong after short break from Gold Coast.

The Freo game was the only real stinker we've played this year, for the first half of that Geelong game we looked unplayable.

 

[Moonwatcher]

Think Geelong will have that.
They Only play 1 top 9 team on the run home

That's insane

 

[FR0GGY]

That's insane

I think they’ve played more than other teams so far though, or they had a week or two ago

 

[Moonwatcher]

I think they’ve played more than other teams so far though, or they had a week or two ago

Their double ups seem fair. Brisbane the 2024 premier, Port the 2024 top of the ladder team, GWS a preliminary finalist in 2024.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

 

[SugarShane]

The bulldogs game the crucial one

Collingwood at home could get very interesting. The current top 3 all have gimme games in R24, so it's the last chance to shuffle that order. Collingwood by then could still be more than a game clear, would they rest Sidearse and Pendles to have them cherry ripe for finals? I tend to doubt it given the pre-finals bye but it's possible.

 

[BRL121]

Meaningless if Carlton is up there!

 

[SugarShane]

Think we finish 3rd

Without getting too far ahead of ourselves, I'd take us V Geelong at the G in week 1 in a heartbeat. At GMHBA, not so much.

 

[SugarShane]

Ever since 2017 I’ve never really looked at The Squiggle or put much faith in it, now I’m confused just how it rates Western Bulldogs so highly.

Yep Squiggle is mud to me. If it was accurate/reliable we'd have 4 flags.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Without getting too far ahead of ourselves, I'd take us V Geelong at the G in week 1 in a heartbeat. At GMHBA, not so much.

Geelong are very beatable at GHMBA. It's not the fortress it once was.

 

[kirky]

Collingwood at home could get very interesting. The current top 3 all have gimme games in R24, so it's the last chance to shuffle that order. Collingwood by then could still be more than a game clear, would they rest Sidearse and Pendles to have them cherry ripe for finals? I tend to doubt it given the pre-finals bye but it's possible.

Well they are more likely to rest them R23 than R24.

Now Collingwood do have a tricky draw - after this week they play Suns, Freo, bye (Richmond), Brisbane, Hawks and us. I definitely can see them losing a few amongst that - which ones I don’t know.

By the time they play us they will have played high intensity football for a few weeks.