Does anyone really win longterm?

[Ill Chicken]

Silly comment. Think about who else he could be talking about. The TAB isn't the only place this could happen.

Who said anything about the TAB being the place that it happened? You ever heard of retailing? I'm not trying to guess who it is. What I am saying is that if a company listed on the ASX is letting someone take 100k off them a week for the last 104 weeks, then they're not actually holding any of the bets.

 

[Jan Juc]

Just plain wrong.

Incorrect.

No.

 

[Ill Chicken]

I am right.

Completely correct..

Yes.

 

[Jan Juc]

You my friend, seem to be a fool.

An internet forum is not the place for me to be having this conversation with somebody who seems to display certain pickle qualities.

Gist of this thread was along the lines of "are there any long-term winners?" or "do people actually win at this game?".

I've intimated YES - and the levels at which the big guys do win would blow yours, my, and everybody's mind.


I've said enough - I can hear Keyzer Soze hunting me down.....

 

[Ill Chicken]

Yeah way to seal your argument. Anybody could come in and spout the same crap and not be held accountable, which is exactly what you've done and then try and belittle anyone who questions them because they can hide behind the facade that they work for a bookie and can't disclose any information because it would breach client confidentiality.

Where have I suggested that there aren't any punters who win consistently? What I am contesting is that someone is winning 100k week in week out for two years and that you've got nothing on how the bookie can afford to let this person keep going for the same amounts unless he has pumped 15 million into the joint before going on this hot streak.

 

[CAS79]

Ive tried laying horses and making books on horses on betfair and its damn hard work to make moneyfrom, it would need all your time and I cant give it.

Sport laying on betfair such as Soccer, Cricket and Tennis and American football still needs a fair bit of time but if you don’t chase quick fortunes and stay disciplined you can make some money.

But its hobby income not your work income.

 

[Jan Juc]

Yeah way to seal your argument. Anybody could come in and spout the same crap and not be held accountable, which is exactly what you've done and then try and belittle anyone who questions them because they can hide behind the facade that they work for a bookie and can't disclose any information because it would breach client confidentiality.

Where have I suggested that there aren't any punters who win consistently? What I am contesting is that someone is winning 100k week in week out for two years and that you've got nothing on how the bookie can afford to let this person keep going for the same amounts unless he has pumped 15 million into the joint before going on this hot streak.

I'm not having an argument, you may be, and that's your prerogative.

I'm telling you there are people out there winning mind boggling amounts. Well, one in particular is mind-boggling anyway. Others are still big fish.

I think you need to get this fascination with "bookies" or your "bookmaker" mentality out of your head - if you think there's people pulling the figures I've quoted out of "bookies" then no wonder you're scratching your head.

FWIW, I don't "spout crap" and I don't "deal in facades".


You've quoted two things - $15m and a hot streak. Neither is ball park. Volume is massively under-stated, and relying on streaks doesn't play a part at all.

 

[Almost Famous]

IllChicken,
Ever heard of Betfair? Pretty sure they couldn't care less how many million an individual punter wins. Feel free to apologise whenever you like you ignoramous.

 

[Daytripper]

I've worked on and off for a well known Vic sports bookie for over a decade.

Bets that are publicised are massively overstaed IMO. Its generally a big PR stunt.

I have difficulty believing Jan Jucs story as no bookmaker or corporate could withstand those sort of losses unless he is dumping those bets straight afterwards around Australia.

A 30k bet on an Aussie Rules or NRL match (which is where all the liquidity is for these guys) is considered a big bet.

Not many bookies could wiithstand a 50K bet without seriously considering laying it off - and if he is a winning punter then you would definitely be getting rid of the bet....

Then its a matter of getting set when betting back. No bookie worth his salt would consistently be betting back at under the price the punter originally took.

Not saying its not possible - but improbable.

 

[Jan Juc]

Bets that are publicised are massively overstaed IMO. Its generally a big PR stunt.

Agree 110% - one of my bugbears to tell you the truth. $1 million on Lonhro here, $1 million on Diva there - yet accounts that win consistently get shut down or cut back until it becomes unviable.

I have difficulty believing Jan Jucs story as no bookmaker or corporate could withstand those sort of losses unless he is dumping those bets straight afterwards around Australia.

I do not tell stories. Never once have I mentioned bookmakers or corporates. Question to the non-believers, does anybody think for a second that Australia's smartest punter would play Tattslotto for a living? Poker machines? Even the TAB exclusively? Hmmmmm.

 

[haywood jablome]

Why are you being so secretive about it all? We don't expect you to tell us his name and address or where you work, instead of defending yourself why don't you tell us a bit more about it, try and be more specific and not use so many sarcastic questions.

 

[Daytripper]

I do not tell stories. Never once have I mentioned bookmakers or corporates. Question to the non-believers, does anybody think for a second that Australia's smartest punter would play Tattslotto for a living? Poker machines? Even the TAB exclusively? Hmmmmm.

Poker ?

If that was the case I could believe that.

 

[Daytripper]

I do not tell stories. Never once have I mentioned bookmakers or corporates. Question to the non-believers, does anybody think for a second that Australia's smartest punter would play Tattslotto for a living? Poker machines? Even the TAB exclusively? Hmmmmm.

Actually i know SB is a big Betfair player. Is that what you are inferring ?

 

[Jan Juc]

Small time in comparison.

 

[haywood jablome]

This is like Cluedo crossed with Guess Who...

Question: Does he have red hair?

 

[Oaksnaf]

Should we care? Not really.

 

[haywood jablome]

Should we care? Not really.

Oh sorry, I didn't realise you represented the opinion of the people. I do give a shit if he has red hair, I already know you do. No one has managed to guess where he places his bets, do you want to have a guess Oaksnaf?

 

[Oaksnaf]

Oh sorry, I didn't realise you represented the opinion of the people. I do give a shit if he has red hair, I already know you do. No one has managed to guess where he places his bets, do you want to have a guess Oaksnaf?

Chill man.

Does it really matter? What affect is it going to have on you knowing or not knowing where he places his bet?

 

[Daytripper]

Small time in comparison.

I give up. PM me.

 

[shotgun_blues]

Thats not entirely true haywood jablome.

The frequency of bets depends on what your actual bet type is.

If your look at those who lay for a living. There are many, many punters out there with up to 50+ lays on any given weekend.

There are also punters who win long term that have several selections per day.




shotgun_blues... your post sort of answers your own question. Your inconsistent. And your system results are based on betting every single bet.


You should also work out, the worst run in your system. The lowest point of the balance based on $1 investments, and the highest. That way you might be able to look at it more realistically rather than just seeing 28% POT.

For the strike-rate and the average dividend that you have, it's pretty impressive. So I wouldn't be so discouraged so quickly.


I also assume that if your system threw up 15 bets in one day, when the average seems to be around 4, if this system did cover every single weekend from 2005-2008.

Have you looked at periods of time to see a pattern of profit, or loss over 05-08?

Oaksnaf,

I have a very extensive and thorough database (hundreds of filters) and am only now trying to cross the line from collating to collecting. I am strictly statistically minded so no thoughts or emotions cloud my selections and I use Poisson Confidence Intervals before applying a filter, plus no doubt within the statistics and filters a punters psychology is hidden amongst them. ie Top raters being overbet, popular horses, same distance/same track winners being overbet, same plodders running at same tracks again and again and many more I won't mention. I only do Saturdays because that is where the BIG money is to be had.

I meant I had 15 bets across all 6 systems that I use on the weekend. But the top raters have had 26 out of the 208 selections in 2009 for only 1 winner @ $3.

Normally I'd consider 208 selections returning $209 on local tote on 7 weekends on Saturday Metro racing ($230 on best tote) to be quite excellent considering the top raters are really dragging it down, and if I could make 20 units profit every 7-8 weeks (@ best tote) I'd own a Ferrari or three.

But problem is when I do invest on these (mortgage etc takes priority of course) I seem to lose my money all the time, and when I don't invest the winners come in. It was a laughing matter at first but I am really starting to believe there is some other force at work. Averages say I should be getting my money back, even if only betting a portion of them. Not getting smashed!

That is what is so frustrating.

I do believe a small minority win long term, but the patience required to overcome the setbacks in this profession is of paramount importance, and to believe in what your doing, and know what you are doing of course.

I have just completed a jockey database of Saturday Metro results (couldn't care less how they run on country/provincial tracks) and the results are quite astounding. Out of that came about 60 jockeys out of the hundreds that race on Saturdays that I would consider viable betting opportunities long term (this will change every few months of course), most of the rest should get a job at the local butcher shop, I won't be touching them with Monopoly money. When I counted the 'viable' jockeys out of the 208 selections that have run this year there were 90 selections returning $130 local. So touch wood that may be the thing that pushes me towards long term profit. Another thing I have done was check my ratings overs/unders and have now deleted extreme unders with a cutoff point. This has improved it considerably too. These are two things I never factored into my ratings or systems.

But money talks and bullsh!t walks and I ain't seeing no cash yet, so unless I start seeing some soon or at least get my money back I'll give it away real soon. I am understanding just how hard it is to turn paper profits into spending money!

I'll guess I'll just stick with it and hopefully it'll turn the corner real soon.

 

[Ill Chicken]

The basics of it is that Jan Juc's is talking shit. Anyone can come along and say hey I work for a betting agency, bookie, tab and there is this guy, this person this horse, Phar Lap, pulls out a 100k every week. We don't do anything about it because hey, I don't know, I can't answer that, because all I do is answer phones for 10/10 each way bets.

If anyone is a pickle Jan Juc it is you.

 

[haywood jablome]

But money talks and bullsh!t walks

One of my favourite quotes

 

[ECHUCABOY]

The basics of it is that Jan Juc's is talking shit. Anyone can come along and say hey I work for a betting agency, bookie, tab and there is this guy, this person this horse, Phar Lap, pulls out a 100k every week. We don't do anything about it because hey, I don't know, I can't answer that, because all I do is answer phones for 10/10 each way bets.

If anyone is a pickle Jan Juc it is you.

Maybe you should get some sleep Ill Chicken...is this discussion causing you to have sleepless nights....its ok we understand

 

[Jan Juc]

I'm not high enough up to answer the phones yet - I'm only in the office between roughly 5.45pm and 6.30pm emptying the bins, watering the plants, mopping the floors etc.

Oh yeah, and removing unwanted pickles from any of the McDonalds burgers the big guys that answer the phones don't want in their burgers....

 

[Hoffy95]

I do not tell stories. Never once have I mentioned bookmakers or corporates. Question to the non-believers, does anybody think for a second that Australia's smartest punter would play Tattslotto for a living? Poker machines? Even the TAB exclusively? Hmmmmm.

Arbitrage?

Would make sense. Particularly talking big boys. Take advantage of tiny differentials, but with a substantial outlay it would be practical and given you are essentially talking guaranteed returns...

Hmmm.