Does anyone really win longterm?

[Oaksnaf]

How would you manage that?

Quite easily. By punting trifecta's, F4s, Quinella's.

If only you had just stuck to backing winners.....

 

[Ill Chicken]

Apologiies to all, especially Ill Chicken.


The withdrawal amounts (average weekly) I stated months ago were severely under-stated.

Again, re-visiting the "gist" of this thread - do people consistently win?


Yes. And massively. Although they would seem to be in the smallest of minorities.

How's the office cleaning going?

 

[Jan Juc]

How's the office cleaning going?

Really good thanks, my speed and efficiency has picked up that much that they have entrusted me with packing / unpacking the dishwasher daily - time permitting.

Can't be bothered dredging up old stuff, but if I called you a pickle when you couldn't get your head around my first estimates (given they have turned out to be on the low side), you sir are now a fully-grown gherkin.

 

[asanque]

Jan Juc - can you disclose what sports this person is winning on?
I.e. is it all horse racing or is there a range?

 

[Duritz]

Of course people win long term. The person Rosebud is talking about is not only Australia's biggest punter, he's the world's biggest punter.

There's some articles on him on that punting ace website linked to earlier in the thread.

 

[Ill Chicken]

Really good thanks, my speed and efficiency has picked up that much that they have entrusted me with packing / unpacking the dishwasher daily - time permitting.

Can't be bothered dredging up old stuff, but if I called you a pickle when you couldn't get your head around my first estimates (given they have turned out to be on the low side), you sir are now a fully-grown gherkin.

Ha. Prove it. Oh wait you can't.

 

[INSIGHT]

There is only one way and one way only you can win long term and it is simple probability equation.


If you are playing 2 up there is only possiblities a head or a tail so the odds are even money. If some one gave you 2.10 a head and 1.90 a tail overtime you must win by backing heads because you have a mathematically advantage. Just the same as a casino.

Converting this to horse racing the only way you can win is by pricing your market and betting accordingly. Unlike two up no one knows the true odds but if your market/opinion is more accurate than the available odds you win. Of course this not easy when you markets tab and fixed oods are set at around 118% meaning if you back every horse to take out exactly $100 you will $118.

If you bet best odds available with a sports bookies you may get this down to 110%. You need discipline and you only bet went you think the odds are in your favour that is the horse is at a beter price than your price, quite often you back more than one horse in race. I was moderately successful for period of time i.e showed a profit. No longer have time or passionate to put the work in and only bet for a bit fun and loose more often than I win.

 

[danielz_23]

This thread is just depressing guys - put your hand in your pocket and back that next winner

 

[Jan Juc]

The basics of it is that Jan Juc's is talking shit. Anyone can come along and say hey I work for a betting agency, bookie, tab and there is this guy, this person this horse, Phar Lap, pulls out a 100k every week. We don't do anything about it because hey, I don't know, I can't answer that, because all I do is answer phones for 10/10 each way bets.

If anyone is a pickle Jan Juc it is you.

Apologies to all, especially Ill Chicken.


The withdrawal amounts (average weekly) I stated months ago were severely under-stated.

Again, re-visiting the "gist" of this thread - do people consistently win?


Yes. And massively. Although they would seem to be in the smallest of minorities.

An article for Ill-Chicken:

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/ne...es-an-australian/story-e6freuy9-1225829857479

 

[krisholio14]

I've been betting solid on AFL, Tennis and Cricket for just under 12 months now, and am doing very well.

I decided after round 6 last year to bet 100 bucks a week on games I liked and ended up 2k ahead on that. I also ended up winning around 1k on the Ashes. I piled all of that on Geelong for the first week of the finals at 1.90 straight up and basically doubled up.

So if you include my win with Del Potro at the US Open and a couple of other small tennis bets I ended up 6k ahead for an initial 100 dollar outlay.

My tips for giving youself a good chance of finishing ahead....

Stick to betting on things you know a fair bit about.

Don't overthink things. If you see something you like and you think it's value, back it.

Always look for those bets where the bookies are literally giving money away. An example of this was the last day of the Ashes series. Australia was trying to win a game from a position that no team in the history of the game had ever won from. And that includes first class AND test level. The bookies still had the Poms out as far as 1.40 for the win. I put the entire contents of my betting account on it, and made the easiest 500 bucks or so i'm ever going to make in my life.

NEVER bet after you've had a few.

Stay away from large multi's and exotics.

And the most important thing.....

DON'T BE GREEDY!

I'm happy to have 4 separate straight up bets, win a couple of them and win 60 bucks, than put them all into each other for added 'value' and wind up with **** all.

A small profit is better than a loss.

 

[Ill Chicken]

An article for Ill-Chicken:

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/ne...es-an-australian/story-e6freuy9-1225829857479

Again, what does this prove?

 

[GoOsH]

I reckon this bloke is probably ahead
http://www.perthnow.com.au/lifestyl...er-is-australian/story-e6frg3pl-1225829956487