Does it take too long for clubs to rebuild their lists?

[rado]

A re-build including drafting/trading can only be successful if the club is well run and has a good core onfield leadership group, otherwise the club has to wait for draftees/trades to form a strong leadership group which can take years.

Prior rebuilds at the RFC we threw many top draft picks at a club poorly run and poorly led onfield, which wasn’t the best environment for elite talent to reach it’s potential.

This is why many later draft picks at strong clubs thrive and reach their full potential, including careers that surpass many earlier draft selections.

It’s not rocket science and every club knows it, the challenge is knowing how long to stay with the same staff and players and knowing when and where to adjust.

 

[Mr.X]

Let me know when Carlton have rebuilt.

16 years and counting ....

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Let me know when Carlton have rebuilt.

16 years and counting ....

49 games and counting.

 

[TheSunGod]

Can’t answer this question from my club’s perspective as we have never completed one.

 

[Blue1980]

49 games and counting.

Apparently we were rebuilding making finals between 09-13

 

[Blue1980]

It was funny listerning to SEN this morning with all the Carlton fans ringing in to say they had to start to rebuild when GC & GWS entered the comp.
We where actually in a worse spot than Carlton in those years.
High draft picks mean s**t all.
Development is the key.
From our 2017 Premiership team-
Lambert-rookie (previously on Carlton's VFL team)
Butler-picked in the 60s
Grimes-Pre season draft
Broad-pick 67 out of the WAFL
Graham-pick in the 50s
Townsend-traded pick 70 odd to get him
Astbury-pick 35
Castagna-Rookie pick
McIntosh-pick in the 30's

Yes we have our stars in Martin ect but all those players about would slip into most AFL sides.

You are correct, we were a finals team when the new sides came in, so that’s complete BS

Didn’t help we picked Watson and Bootsma with our first picks in those compromised drafts either.

 

[R00StaR]

But if you're down the bottom, is throwing big money at a 26-year-old or 27-year-old free agent really the right move?

Surely the smarter long-term move is loading up on draft picks and hopefully getting them right, so you have a core of players who come through together.

If clubs get that wrong, they almost panic and start sniffing around for a quick fix via free agency. But if you don't have that core in place, that quick fix likely won't work.

My theory: The clubs taking along time have gone for full rebuilds. I think what we're seeing is the gap between pick 1 and 10,11,12 depending on the year has closed substantially. Perhaps getting a top 3 pick isnt quite as big of an advantage as it was 10 years ago, so getting a couple is unlikely to do much for a club in full rebuild.

 

[threesixpio]

Nope

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Quivorir that’s two threads now denying a rebuild

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Are Carlton getting better?

 

[tigerT]

A full rebuild takes way too long and I would argue never work cases in point us, carlton, melbourne - teams like hawks, syd, geel, north, wce are masters at quick rebuilds.

 

[loki04]

But if you're down the bottom, is throwing big money at a 26-year-old or 27-year-old free agent really the right move?

Surely the smarter long-term move is loading up on draft picks and hopefully getting them right, so you have a core of players who come through together.

If clubs get that wrong, they almost panic and start sniffing around for a quick fix via free agency. But if you don't have that core in place, that quick fix likely won't work.

You need to build a core group through draft picks then trade in experienced talent around that to help them.

No point in having a team full of kids as that is how you end up in shitville cycle as they get smashed and lose confidence then struggle to develop.

Has to be a balance of mature bodies and a core group quality youth, I agree with your earlier post in that you ideally need to nail 2-3 consecutive drafts to build that core from.

IMO removing the PP was a mistake they just needed to change the qualifiers to stop the negative press re tanking maybe a 3 year stint in the bottom 4. Not many teams would be willing to tank 3 years straight for 1 extra pick, if you are finishing down that long you need help.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Can’t answer this question from my club’s perspective as we have never completed one.

Year|Pos|Avg Age|Age Rank
\2018|15th|24.30|16th
\2017|17th|23.95|17th
\2016|15th|24.08|16th
\2015|16th|23.32|17th
\2014|12th|22.93|17th
\2013|14th|23.02|17th
\2012|17th|22.70|17th
\2011|17th|22.36|17th

Stark lack of progress post-McKenna.

 

[loki04]

A full rebuild takes way too long and I would argue never work cases in point us, carlton, melbourne - teams like hawks, syd, geel, north, wce are masters at quick rebuilds.

Hawks did a full rebuild back in buddy rough etc drafts. They then added to the nucleus with savvy trading, this is what Carlton and Melb (of the 00s) etc have struggled to do.

 

[loki04]

Year|Pos|Avg Age|Age Rank
\2018|15th|24.30|16th
\2017|17th|23.95|17th
\2016|15th|24.08|16th
\2015|16th|23.32|17th
\2014|12th|22.93|17th
\2013|14th|23.02|17th
\2012|17th|22.70|17th
\2011|17th|22.36|17th

Stark lack of progress post-McKenna.

At least they are consistent.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Apparently we were rebuilding making finals between 09-13

Obviously you were. And it's obvious that Ratten's team was more precocious than Bolton's.

Year|Pos|Avg Age|Age Rank
\2018|18th|24.65|14th
\2017|16th|24.56|16th
\2016|14th|25.32|6th
\2015|18th|25.37|6th
\2014|13th|25.69|6th
\2013|8th|25.37|5th
\2012|10th|24.73|8th
\2011|5th|24.41|7th
\2010|8th|23.70|13th
\2009|7th|23.66|14th
\2008|11th|23.25|16th
\2007|15th|23.59|16th
\2006|16th|24.19|15th

 

[Ron The Bear]

Hawks did a full rebuild back in buddy rough etc drafts. They then added to the nucleus with savvy trading, this is what Carlton and Melb (of the 00s) etc have struggled to do.

Hawthorn is the best example of all of a rapid grass-roots rebuild, executed as it was with a rare collection of young talent.

Year|Pos|Avg Age|Age Rank
\2018|9th|26.04|1st
\2017|12th|26.14|2nd
\2016|5th|26.49|2nd
\2015|1st|26.82|1st
\2014|1st|25.85|4th
\2013|1st|26.09|2nd
\2012|2nd|25.10|5th
\2011|3rd|24.98|5th
\2010|8th|24.43|8th
\2009|9th|23.57|16th
\2008|1st|23.85|15th
\2007|6th|24.06|13th
\2006|11th|23.93|16th
\2005|14th|23.91|16th
\2004|15th|24.84|8th

Since 2013 it's been all about staying at the top, in a system designed to drag you down.

 

[Toffee Lion]

If we had of retained Polec/Yeo/Docherty, our rebuild would be much closer to completion.

All 3 are seriously talented and 2 of them are AA, they would also be filling out our middle of the age bracket a lot better.

While we still got some talent back in return, it's not the same and we essentially had to re-start our rebuild off the loss of the GH5.

Rebuilds aren't just simply wait a couple of years, there can be bumps along the way that slow the process down.

 

[TheSunGod]

Year|Pos|Avg Age|Age Rank
\2018|15th|24.30|16th
\2017|17th|23.95|17th
\2016|15th|24.08|16th
\2015|16th|23.32|17th
\2014|12th|22.93|17th
\2013|14th|23.02|17th
\2012|17th|22.70|17th
\2011|17th|22.36|17th

Stark lack of progress post-McKenna.

Or post- Ablett shoulder depending on your point of view.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Or post- Ablett shoulder depending on your point of view.

That 12th in 2014 was a very good performance if lined up against GWS's fourth season - 11th in 2015 @ 23.24 (followed by two prelim appearances). Probably several reasons why the Suns didn't go on with it, including a new coach who didn't work out and a West Coast-style "clean-up" of the club.

 

[TheSunGod]

That 12th in 2014 was a very good performance if lined up against GWS's fourth season - 11th in 2015 @ 23.24 (followed by two prelim appearances). Probably several reasons why the Suns didn't go on with it, including a new coach who didn't work out and a West Coast-style "clean-up" of the club.

Up until then I believe we were tracking ahead of GWS. The midfield of Swallow, O’Meara, Prestia, Bennell, Rischitelli and Ablett, with Martin just starting out had their measure at the time.
Unfortunately the failure of the coaches / club to develop a solid foundation and culture to keep the players on an upward spiral has basically meant we’ve had two false starts already, and wasted nearly all the initial list recruiting concessions. Dew is basically starting from scratch. GWS with a better culture / foundation and improving their win-loss ratio year on year have largely retained those star players and are still well placed for some success in the near future providing they sort out their current issues.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Up until then I believe we were tracking ahead of GWS. The midfield of Swallow, O’Meara, Prestia, Bennell, Rischitelli and Ablett, with Martin just starting out had their measure at the time.
Unfortunately the failure of the coaches / club to develop a solid foundation and culture to keep the players on an upward spiral has basically meant we’ve had two false starts already, and wasted nearly all the initial list recruiting concessions. Dew is basically starting from scratch. GWS with a better culture / foundation and improving their win-loss ratio year on year have largely retained those star players and are still well placed for some success in the near future providing they sort out their current issues.

Yeah the list is still in balance. Need to keep Lynch and find a couple of stars to push up.

 

[Blue1980]

Obviously you were. And it's obvious that Ratten's team was more precocious than Bolton's.

Year|Pos|Avg Age|Age Rank
\2018|18th|24.65|14th
\2017|16th|24.56|16th
\2016|14th|25.32|6th
\2015|18th|25.37|6th
\2014|13th|25.69|6th
\2013|8th|25.37|5th
\2012|10th|24.73|8th
\2011|5th|24.41|7th
\2010|8th|23.70|13th
\2009|7th|23.66|14th
\2008|11th|23.25|16th
\2007|15th|23.59|16th
\2006|16th|24.19|15th

See we were older finishing last in 06 than we were from 07-10 when we finished higher each year?

We will be younger again next year than this year on average too as many of the stop gap experienced guys bolstering the average won’t be getting games as easily next year.

I fully expect us to be younger and better next season

 

[Ron The Bear]

See we were older finishing last in 06 than we were from 07-10 when we finished higher each year?

We will be younger again next year than this year on average too as many of the stop gap experienced guys bolstering the average won’t be getting games as easily next year.

I fully expect us to be younger and better next season

I would hope so!

Improvement typically comes as the average rises, and very rarely when it falls. The 2018 figure with a record of 1-8 isn't a standard platform to build from.

It's a question of whether to cut deep and cop hidings for a year while blooding kids, then hopefully improving every year from that point (Carlton 2008), or "churning" the list until the right mix is achieved to push forward which is what teams like Carlton and St.Kilda have been doing (and Collingwood for that matter).

Complicating things is that it's an "old" competition at the moment - compare the figure for 2011 when Carlton was the 7th-oldest team, and 2018 where it's 14th. Fielding young teams while remaining competitive is more difficult than it was a few years ago.

By 2006-07 the draft sanctions had done their damage and the list under Pagan had well and truly run aground. The 2007 average came down in the final five rounds as Carlton fielded some of the youngest teams in its history (aka tanked). But the improvement from 2008-10 was rapid and progress was well above average.

All of my thoughts on this subject are encapsulated in the table of results for older teams - the bigger the age gap, the more likely the older team is to win (all else being equal).

Age diff|P|W|L|D|Win %
\< 0.5|4800|2443|2312|45|51.36
\0.5 - 1|4094|2254|1798|42|55.57
\1 - 1.5|2844|1662|1148|34|59.04
\1.5 - 2|1788|1126|643|19|63.51
\2 - 2.5|967|642|314|11|66.96
\2.5 - 3|477|330|143|4|69.60
\> 3|311|246|62|3|79.58

young team consistently bucking the numbers = healthy list
old team consistently losing to younger teams = sick list

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Jake Niall reckons Carlton need another handout.

Assuming the club doesn't have a dramatic turnaround and it doesn't win more than four games this year, the Blues should also apply to the AFL for special assistance in the form of a priority draft pick. The AFL, based on the slightly vague criteria established for priority picks, should give Carlton an extra selection inside the top 20 in the national draft.