Does it take too long for clubs to rebuild their lists?

[Frank Grimes]

I think there should be some sort of restriction to the FA compo. Even in the draft coming up West Coast and Essendon are looking at getting a first rnd compo with Oscar Allen

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Oscar Allen

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and Draper leaving. That will two additional picks in the top 5 picks pushing everybody else back.

The compo should not be any earlier than before the first draft pick of the teams who made finals imo.

What's more is clubs often hope that the player walks so they can get the additional pick and don't really fight to retain the player. They offer the player a contract more to make the club pursuing the player offer enough to ensure band 1 compo. I honestly think the West Coast supporters would be more disappointed if Oscar Allen

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Oscar Allen

Age

26

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196cm

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96kg

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9.8

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6.6

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3.2

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3.8

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2.4

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1.1

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No current season stats available

D

8.6

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5.8

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2.8

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3.8

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2.0

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signs on rather than leave.

 

[Soggy2112]

I think there should be some sort of restriction to the FA compo. Even in the draft coming up West Coast and Essendon are looking at getting a first rnd compo with Oscar Allen and Draper leaving. That will two additional picks in the top 5 picks pushing everybody else back.

The compo should not be any earlier than before the first draft pick of the teams who made finals imo.

What's more is clubs often hope that the player walks so they can get the additional pick and don't really fight to retain the player. They offer the player a contract more to make the club pursuing the player offer enough to ensure band 1 compo. I honestly think the West Coast supporters would be more disappointed if Oscar Allen signs on rather than leave.

The simple solution would be to remove free agency compensation from restricted free agency. If clubs want something back they have the option of matching the offer and forcing a trade.

 

[GhostofJimJess]

The simple solution would be to remove free agency compensation from restricted free agency. If clubs want something back they have the option of matching the offer and forcing a trade.

At the very least the compo should be based on the highest rejected offer of that free agent's departure club, rather than the accepted offer of the destination club.

 

[Soggy2112]

At the very least the compo should be based on the highest rejected offer of that free agent's departure club, rather than the accepted offer of the destination club.

Sounds like a decent compromise. Although I’m not sure if the AFL would be privy to all the offers that are on the table. Seems like something that would be incredibly easy to rort.

 

[Lavender Bushranger]

I think there should be some sort of restriction to the FA compo. Even in the draft coming up West Coast and Essendon are looking at getting a first rnd compo with Oscar Allen and Draper leaving. That will two additional picks in the top 5 picks pushing everybody else back.

The compo should not be any earlier than before the first draft pick of the teams who made finals imo.

What's more is clubs often hope that the player walks so they can get the additional pick and don't really fight to retain the player. They offer the player a contract more to make the club pursuing the player offer enough to ensure band 1 compo. I honestly think the West Coast supporters would be more disappointed if Oscar Allen signs on rather than leave.

Agree. I don't think there should be any compo.

But, of course this means that clubs should also be able to trade players against their wishes.

 

[Soggy2112]

Agree. I don't think there should be any compo.

But, of course this means that clubs should also be able to trade players against their wishes.

I’m still not a fan of trading against players wishes.

You sign a contract, I think it’s fair to be able to expect to see out that contract.

 

[dean33]

This team should highlight more than anything that the league has got its player movement and list management system wrong.

Go back to the mid 2000s and there was no free agency, and pretty restricted movement of players (trade only). We also had priority picks which had a big impact.

Consider: a footy team needs roughly 30 competent players (23 plus reserves).

Back in 2005 (the last year of the old priority pick rules), the team that finished last got picks 1, 4, 20 and 36, lost no players, and added two mature veterans via a cheap trade and the pre-season draft (which was the only way for out-of-contract players to move). The team that won the premiership got picks 19, 35 and 51. They lost three players to other teams, and added one mature replacement (which cost 19 and 35) and one fringe prospect via PSD, while drafting with picks 51, 54 and 59

16th = two solid role players, picks 1, 4, 20, 36
1st = lost (net) one player, picks 51, 54, 59
You can make a case that 16th made up FIVE players worth of gap on the premier in that draft... By 2009 the team that had finished last had jumped to 7th, while 1st had fallen to 12th

Now have a look at 2024. Suddenly we have academies, free agency, players just walking and demanding trades, trading future picks, etc. There's also 18 teams so even the second, third and fourth picks that the bottom team gets are pushed back. What was the 2024 outcome?

18th = lost FOUR best 22 players to other clubs, shuffled picks around, drafted with 1, 7, 12, 14, 21, 23, 36
1st = lost one fringe player, added a fringe player via PSD, drafted with 5, 25, 42


What is the net result? 18th had a huge haul of draft picks, but even if you are generous and consider anything in the top 30 a 'good enough to play' candidate, they are only up TWO players on their 2025 list (ie: replace Bolton, Graham, Rioli, Baker with, say, 7, 12, 14, 21)
Meanwhile, the premiers, also added picks 5 and 25 and are thus up TWO players on their list.

In 2024, you can make the case that Richmond made up no ground at all on Brisbane - they certainly got further away from 2025-2028, and the ability of Brisbane to add TWO academy prospects in the top 25 of the draft, and slot them into a premiershi plist, is just concerning. The crazy thing is that if you just look at pre-trade draft picks, Brisbane had TWO
picks before Richmond had their second natural pick. Richmond had to sell the farm to have any chance of making up ground via the draft, but were also completely unable to add aynthign via free agency...

This has swung way too far imo - and it is a big reason why teams like Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood are able to stay up year after year. You have to really mess up to fall from the top, and you have to really nail it to get off the bottom.

Good post, interested to know what you think richmomd should have done differently to avoid our free fall from premiers to spoon in the space of 4 years?

 

[Freomaniac]

Compensation picks from free agency literally dilute the draft hand of rebuilding clubs. In its current form, free agency rewards those involved in the transaction (one with a player and the other with a compensation pick) and punishes every club that isn't involved in the transaction in the form of weakening their draft hand.

You get a few academy players, father sons, and free agents drafted and you end up in a position where the wooden spooner's 2nd pick is at #30 (like West Coast in 2023). It's absolutely farcical and does impact on a teams ability to rebuild.

You are only saying that because west coast eagles have never been in this type of a long term rebuild like this current one.

Dockers spent 6 years rebuilding from 2016 to 2021.

Eagles like the crows, had short plug and play rebuilds that meant 2 or 3 years in a row of no finals.

2000-01 was only 2 years. You got guys like Kerr, Judd and Sampi. But it wasn't an ageing squad. The rebuild wasn't as bad, you just needed a couple of gun wa kids.

Then you made finals for 6 years from 2002-07. Eagles made a grand final in 2005, won the flag in 2006

Then comes west coast 2008-10 rebuild where you got guys like Nick Nat in 2008, Sheppard in 2009, then gaff, Lycett and Darling in 2010.

Again.... It wasn't a bad rebuild. West coast got a few decent wa kids.

Again....eagles squad in 2008 wasn't ageing. They did lose, Judd and Cousins in their prime.

Then the eagles made finals in 2011-12. Off the back of the 2005-6 grand final vets of Embley, Kerr, Lynch, Glass and Cox.

Then another 2013-4 plug and play rebuild which got young guys like Dom Sheed.

Then you had that 2015-2020 finals run. Made a grand final in 2015, won a flag in 2018.

This rebuild was gonna be a long one for 2 reasons.

1. Your west coast 2021 squad was an ageing squad compared to 2000, 2008 and 2013 it was moderate or in the middle in age wise, which wasn't a bad thing.

2. There's 18 teams fighting for 8 finals spots. You can't turn this all around in 2 or 3 years

 

[Freomaniac]

Yeah I'm not aware of a season that's been so close. Teams have definitely caught up to each other and there's fine margins in it now with the best sides able to produce slightly higher quality in patches compared to the team's just behind them. The best teams need a good run and for a lot of things to go their way. Long gone are the days a great Geelong or Hawks side can stroll into finals without any real concerns which we have seen in the recent past. That is a big postive for our game but what will be the most interesting thing is if that means we get more results like the 2016 Bulldogs or will we still have a relatively consistent top 4 with one of them teams winning the big dance.

And this 2025 season is weird too

 

[YeoShuey]

Just look at North and Freo who have been rebuilding for a decade...

 

[GhostofJimJess]

Good post, interested to know what you think richmomd should have done differently to avoid our free fall from premiers to spoon in the space of 4 years?

Knock Mitch Robinson's block off before he could send Dusty to hospital that day and effectively end his reign as the most dangerous player in the comp.

 

[Freomaniac]

Just look at North and Freo who have been rebuilding for a decade...

And to a lesser degree.... Carlton lol

 

[YeoShuey]

And to a lesser degree.... Carlton lol

Sure but we just have a shit coach.

 

[btdg]

Good post, interested to know what you think richmomd should have done differently to avoid our free fall from premiers to spoon in the space of 4 years?

I'm not the expert on Richmond but I think it is probably summed up as 'got too young too fast'

From that peak you didn't really manage to plug holes with veterans. Instead, it was the opposite - you initially lost some good solid guys, lost more to retirement, paid too much for the only replacements that came in.

From what I can see in 2019 you lost Rance, Ellis, Grigg, Townsend and Butler and replaced them with only draft picks

Lost Markov and Higgins in 2020 and gained only draftees

In 2021lost Chol and CCJ and gained Tarrant, while Astbury retired

In 2022, went and got Taranto and Hopper, but that cost som useful draft picks and you had Edwards, Lambert, Caddy retire.

In 2023, lost Soldo, gained Kositchke, and had Cotchin, Riewoldt, Castagna, Tarrant retire.

In four years, I make that a net 'out' of FOURTEEN veterans - that is, you list had 14 less veterans than before, and replacing with draftees only meant that even the oldest of those was only 23 (and all drafted pick 20-odd onwards they don't tend to impact early). Across that run you signed zero free agents, only one cheap trade for a player (and that was quite a young one). Sometimes the worst move is making no move at all... And I think that is my take on it. You just weren't active enough in bringing in solid role players, which had been such a strength in building the premiership (see Nankervis, Caddy, Grigg, Houli, even Lambert). Went from one of the deepest teams around, to weak depth and then just too many young guys.

Also some bad luck - no father/son or academy picks of note. A couple of guys hit injury or early retirement. The league changes rules that impacted your gameplan. Hardwick had some off field stuff and seemed to check out a bit, then left.

But really I think Richmond lost it through inertia. Just not being active enough.

 

[Soggy2112]

I'm not the expert on Richmond but I think it is probably summed up as 'got too young too fast'

From that peak you didn't really manage to plug holes with veterans. Instead, it was the opposite - you initially lost some good solid guys, lost more to retirement, paid too much for the only replacements that came in.

From what I can see in 2019 you lost Rance, Ellis, Grigg, Townsend and Butler and replaced them with only draft picks

Lost Markov and Higgins in 2020 and gained only draftees

In 2021lost Chol and CCJ and gained Tarrant, while Astbury retired

In 2022, went and got Taranto and Hopper, but that cost som useful draft picks and you had Edwards, Lambert, Caddy retire.

In 2023, lost Soldo, gained Kositchke, and had Cotchin, Riewoldt, Castagna, Tarrant retire.

In four years, I make that a net 'out' of FOURTEEN veterans - that is, you list had 14 less veterans than before, and replacing with draftees only meant that even the oldest of those was only 23 (and all drafted pick 20-odd onwards they don't tend to impact early). Across that run you signed zero free agents, only one cheap trade for a player (and that was quite a young one). Sometimes the worst move is making no move at all... And I think that is my take on it. You just weren't active enough in bringing in solid role players, which had been such a strength in building the premiership (see Nankervis, Caddy, Grigg, Houli, even Lambert). Went from one of the deepest teams around, to weak depth and then just too many young guys.

Also some bad luck - no father/son or academy picks of note. A couple of guys hit injury or early retirement. The league changes rules that impacted your gameplan. Hardwick had some off field stuff and seemed to check out a bit, then left.

But really I think Richmond lost it through inertia. Just not being active enough.

I actually think Richmond have probably done quite well.

They tried to hang on to the top with Hopper and Taranto, hindsight will suggest that was a mistake, but I think worth a try.

Once they realised they were finished they have bailed on it quickly and hit the draft hard, while still being able to play really competitive footy. Time we’ll tell if those picks work out, but from a list management perspective I think they’ve nailed their strategy.

 

[Cleric]

Most of the longer rebuilds like Carlton, Melbourne and North, have come down to the incompetence of those clubs.
Adelaide and Hawthorn were in just a bad shape as North but blew by them in a couple of years without the extra PPs and assistance North have received. It's not fair on the other teams that do the right thing.

 

[Foxman98]

Sure but we just have a shit coach.

No you also have a shit list

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

The only reason it takes too long is because of the academies and father/son situation of the last 5+ years.

If you replace Sheezel and Wardlaw with Will Ashcroft and Sam Darcy we are not having this conversation its fair to say

 

[Foxman98]

The majority of rebuilds are either good or bad pending on drafting,

North and in recent times West Coast have been fairly poor in this area,

Add on top the need then to trade in "known quantities" to help push this along e.g Caleb Daniel

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Caleb Daniel

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29

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21.3

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2.9

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1.4

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19.5

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11.1

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8.4

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3.6

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1.0

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16.4

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7.2

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3.4

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0.2

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for North and it is a recipe for disaster in terms of rebuild

 

[Foxman98]

The only reason it takes too long is because of the academies and father/son situation of the last 5+ years.

If you replace Sheezel and Wardlaw with Nick Daicos and Sam Darcy we are not having this conversation its fair to say

Seeing as Sheezel and Wardlaw were from the 2022 AFL draft and Daicos and Darcy were 2021 not sure the relevance,

North also could've kept pick 1 and taken Cadman in said draft and also gone the Finn Callaghan route instead of the obviously talented but huge flight risk JHF

 

[Pistol Night]

The only reason it takes too long is because of the academies and father/son situation of the last 5+ years.

If you replace Sheezel and Wardlaw with Nick Daicos and Sam Darcy we are not having this conversation its fair to say

North got JHF in that draft. How many picks they want?

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

The majority of rebuilds are either good or bad pending on drafting,

North and in recent times West Coast have been fairly poor in this area,

Add on top the need then to trade in "known quantities" to help push this along e.g Caleb Daniel for North and it is a recipe for disaster in terms of rebuild

In a rebuild the bad teams need to draft the best players in the draft. They havnt had the chance to do that really at all in the last 5 years.

2023 was the only draft which the best player was taken by the bottom side. If we go through it

2024 - Best player in Levi Ashcroft taken by the premiers Brisbane
2022 - Best player in Will Ashcroft taken by the premiers Brisbame
2021 - Best player in Nick Daicos taken by recent premiers in Collingwood. 2nd best taken by Bulldogs
2020 - Pick 1 went to Western Bulldogs in JUH. A team that played in the finals that year

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

North got JHF in that draft. How many picks they want?

Sorry I meant Will Ashcroft not Nick Daicos

Is it not a issue that in 2 of the last 3 drafts Brisbane Lions got the best player? Would that impact rebuilds of the other teams?

 

[jdisc]

The list sizes are far too small, bottom teams should be able to load up on rookies.

37-44 players for a sport where 23 are on the field is a joke.

 

[Foxman98]

In a rebuild the bad teams need to draft the best players in the draft. They havnt had the chance to do that really at all in the last 5 years.

2023 was the only draft which the best player was taken by the bottom side. If we go through it

2024 - Best player in Levi Ashcroft taken by the premiers Brisbane
2022 - Best player in Will Ashcroft taken by the premiers Brisbame
2021 - Best player in Nick Daicos taken by recent premiers in Collingwood. 2nd best taken by Bulldogs

You are acting as if they then have to pick the 20th best player with their first pick,

Lalor looks a star just as much as Levi in a poor side, FOS looks more then ready

Ashcroft isn't significantly better than Sheezel and realistically they could've kept pick 1 and taken Cadman

Finn Callaghan was available to select as well as JHF to a competent team,

Good sides are built from picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds and just doing what is required in the first,

The F/S picks may effect a St Kilda or Essendon in those drafts picking in the middle of the first round but doesn't cause North to be as shit as they have been for the best part of a decade now