Does it take too long for clubs to rebuild their lists?

[Foxman98]

It hasn’t taken us 8 years to rebuild. This is Nicks sixth year in charge. 2017 we made the GF, 2018 we missed finals, but kept Pyke, he tried to bounce back but it didn’t work.

Pyke was sacked, Eddie Betts, Sam Jacobs, Hugh Greenwood, Alex Keath, Josh Jenkins and Cam Ellis-Yolmen left. Andy Otten and Richard Douglas retired. That’s when our rebuild started.

For arguments sake, let’s use 50 games as the mark when players are about ready to start making consistent impact. That means that the players from the 2021 draft which is the 3rd draft of our rebuild will have only just hit that mark heading into the sixth season of our rebuild. If you’re doing a draft based rebuild which is generally the best way to go, it would be unreasonably to expect a team to be ready to go before then. We’ve been able to speed up our rebuild a little bit with the inclusions of Dawson, Rankine, Cumming, Peatling and ANB, but the core has still come from the draft: Worrell (2019), Thilthorpe, Berry (2020), Rachele, Soligo (2021), Michalanney (2022) and Curtin (2023). It really would be unreasonable to expect a rebuild to go much quicker than that.

This is the part he keeps missing,

If you get the core group in 2-3 years of good drafting you can trade in the older guys and improve reasonably quickly

West Coast/North have drafted poorly for a long time hence they’re where they were at

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Eagles supporter started this. I think he knows the answer. At least they won a flag in 2018 though.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

This is the part he keeps missing,

If you get the core group in 2-3 years of good drafting you can trade in the older guys and improve reasonably quickly

West Coast/North have drafted poorly for a long time hence they’re where they were at

Huh? From the last 3 years Adelaide had 4 players only in last weeks team (Michalaney, Curtin, Soligo, Taylor)

The team they have is the most spread out group of players you will ever see. Its why it took them so long to rebuild. They didnt hit or win any draft at all. They picked up 1 or 2 good players in each season then traded in the rest

 

[Foxman98]

Huh? From the last 3 years Adelaide had 4 players only in last weeks team (Michalaney, Curtin, Soligo, Taylor)

The team they have is the most spread out group of players you will ever see. It’s why it took them so long to rebuild. They didnt hit or win any draft at all. They picked up 1 or 2 good players in each season then traded in the rest

Worrell 24 Murray 24 Keane 25 Thilthorpe 23 Fogarty 25 Berry 23 Pedlar 23 Taylor 22 Soligo 22

9/23 drafted in and hitting the 75-100+ game mark together

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Worrell 24 Murray 24 Keane 25 Thilthorpe 23 Fogarty 25 Berry 23 Pedlar 23 Taylor 22 Soligo 22

9/23 drafted in and hitting the 75-100+ game mark together

9/23 from 2019 to 2024 is wild. I thought it would be more. That isnt helping your cause btw. 5 drafts to get 9 players would suggest it does take too long to rebuild a list

 

[Foxman98]

9/23 from 2019 to 2024 is wild. I thought it would be more. That isnt helping your cause btw. 5 drafts to get 9 players would suggest it does take too long to rebuild a list

That’s a 3 year period don’t know if you worked that out

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

That’s a 3 year period don’t know if you worked that out

Its 2016 to 2021....

EDIT : Oh sorry Fogarty was 2017 not 16. In any case I went back to 2016 and they drafted 7 players with 0 on the list still. Feels a bit dumb to ignore that one cos it helps your argument

 

[Soggy2112]

9/23 from 2019 to 2024 is wild. I thought it would be more. That isnt helping your cause btw. 5 drafts to get 9 players would suggest it does take too long to rebuild a list

There are 11 players from our 2019 list remaining. That means 3/4 of our list has been acquired in 6 years. Of those 11 players, 6 are either fringe players or likely to be delisted.

We’ve acquired 21 of our regularly used players this season in the last 6 years.

Btw, the Crows were able to attract Rankine and Dawson because we had the money to as a result of being in a rebuild phase.

 

[Cleric]

The only reason it takes too long is because of the academies and father/son situation of the last 5+ years.

If you replace Sheezel and Wardlaw with Will Ashcroft and Sam Darcy we are not having this conversation its fair to say

So Adelaide and Hawthorn didn't have to compete against academies and Father Sons when they rebuilt?
With the Northern states taking kids from their academies it leaves the kids from Vic, SA and WA available for the SA, WA and Vic clubs to take.
There are issues with the draft, but its not all about the academies. For instance, why is Qld producing more top talent than WA is at the moment? There are issues with the Jr development in WA that the AFL needs to address quick smart. But, that's off topic.

As for father sons, WC got an AA one real cheap, and I bet if I go over your posts when he was available for WC you wernt saying its unfair that the other clubs can't take him over WC.

The real reason that Adelaides rebuild has gone better than North or WC, and that is trading. If we dont have Dawson and Rankine, we arnt anywhere near as good.
On top of that we brought in two delisted FAs who are now first 22 players, and one is a B&F in Keays and Hinge.

Then we bring in three players on the cheap in ANB, Peatling and Cummings who have all become first 22 players.

So on our current lists there is seven players who we brought in through FA and trades, all of them quality players.

The lack of North and WC to do this is the major factor in your long rebuilds. Taking one first round and one second rounder each year won't rebuild your team.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Geelong at the weekend had 13/23 players who they drafted from pick 20 onwards and yet are magically a flag favourite:

Guthrie 33r/Blicavs 54r/Mullin Cat B/O'Connor Cat B/Miers 57/Stewart 40/Mannagh 36/Holmes 20/Humphries 63/
Dempsey 15r/Atkins 11r/Neale 33/Close 14r

Outside of maybe Mullin name me which of these 13 wouldn't be an instant B22 player for both North and West Coast?

You've also missed Stengle and Martin as delisted free agents, Bowes as a salary dump trade and J Henry as a rookie.

Holmes, Stanley, Smith, Danger, Cameron, SDK and O'Sullivan are the only players we gave up a top 30 pick for. So only 7/23.

And Mullin would walk into both North and West Coast's team too. His defensive game is seriously good. There's no way a guy is playing in the starting 22 every game for a finals team and not being picked by a cellar dweller.

 

[Foxman98]

You've also missed Stengle and Martin as delisted free agents, Bowes as a salary dump trade and J Henry as a rookie.

Holmes, Stanley, Smith, Danger, Cameron, SDK and O'Sullivan are the only players we gave up a top 30 pick for. So only 7/23.

And Mullin would walk into both North and West Coast's team too. His defensive game is seriously good. There's no way a guy is playing in the starting 22 every game for a finals team and not being picked by a cellar dweller.

Forgot about Henry but spoke about the others later on,

But is the best example of if you keep drafting well and have crops of kids coming through you have the ability to top up every so often with high end talent

 

[Cleric]

You've also missed Stengle and Martin as delisted free agents, Bowes as a salary dump trade and J Henry as a rookie.

Holmes, Stanley, Smith, Danger, Cameron, SDK and O'Sullivan are the only players we gave up a top 30 pick for. So only 7/23.

And Mullin would walk into both North and West Coast's team too. His defensive game is seriously good. There's no way a guy is playing in the starting 22 every game for a finals team and not being picked by a cellar dweller.

Geelong really have dialed in their list management strategy.
Even without the high draft picks they have still nailed great young talent with the picks they did have.

 

[KissKiss]

Worrell 24 Murray 24 Keane 25 Thilthorpe 23 Fogarty 25 Berry 23 Pedlar 23 Taylor 22 Soligo 22

9/23 drafted in and hitting the 75-100+ game mark together

Also notable how many of that are key position players taken together and given time to grow together. Then the midfield is quicker and easier to rebuild around that

 

[sexyhunk]

Forgot about Henry but spoke about the others later on,

But is the best example of if you keep drafting well and have crops of kids coming through you have the ability to top up every so often with high end talent

i don't believe there such a thing, you get credited of drafting well if the player actually developed to their potential. A lot of people get drafting and development mixed up.

Did Essendon drafted well on ambrosio? no one give them credit for what he is now at Hawthorn, cause Hawthorn the club that developed his game. There no way he become the player he is now if he stayed another couple of years at Essendon.

 

[Foxman98]

i don't believe there such a thing, you get credited of drafting well if the player actually developed to their potential. A lot of people get drafting and development mixed up.

Did Essendon drafted well on ambrosio? no one give them credit for what he is now at Hawthorn, cause Hawthorn the club that developed his game. There no way he become the player he is now if he stayed another couple of years at Essendon.

This is part of it no doubt, playing him as a small forward was stupid

But you still have to get the right ones through the door

 

[Mr.X]

Yes, the poor clubs take too long to come good after bottoming out

Cats, hawks always don’t seem to ever drop away

 

[Soggy2112]

Yes, the poor clubs take too long to come good after bottoming out

Cats, hawks always don’t seem to ever drop away

When you say poor clubs do you mean financially or in terms of management?

If you mean financial, then the AFL already has a salary cap, and does a significant amount in terms of redistributing funds. I’m not entirely sure what else they can do, unless you start trying to handicap the rich clubs, which to me seems equally unfair.

If you mean in terms of management then so be it. It’s the AFL’s job to make sure there is an opportunity for every club to succeed, not guarantee success. If a club is poorly run and they spend a long time at the bottom as a result then so be it.

 

[Mr.X]

When you say poor clubs do you mean financially or in terms of management?

If you mean financial, then the AFL already has a salary cap, and does a significant amount in terms of redistributing funds. I’m not entirely sure what else they can do, unless you start trying to handicap the rich clubs, which to me seems equally unfair.

If you mean in terms of management then so be it. It’s the AFL’s job to make sure there is an opportunity for every club to succeed, not guarantee success. If a club is poorly run and they spend a long time at the bottom as a result then so be it.

Poor clubs in terms of management

 

[Mr Meow]

Yes, the poor clubs take too long to come good after bottoming out

Cats, hawks always don’t seem to ever drop away

Hawthorn didn't win a final 2016-2023 and were poor for a handful of years leading into 2007 too.

 

[Morro]

Also notable how many of that are key position players taken together and given time to grow together. Then the midfield is quicker and easier to rebuild around that

Believe that is exactly what the Tigs are thinking after last years haul.

 

[THE_GUN]

Does it take too long for clubs to rebuild their lists?​

Yes it does but the AFL and its rules are totally to blame
Having a salary cap as well as limits on lists spots restricts clubs ability to rebuild quicker

Teams that are rebuilding still have to spend the exact same amount of their cap space as the top teams that are filled with talent and end up paying way overs for either young kids that are not deserving of the high salaries or to sh!t players from other clubs to fill a void of senior experience.

Solution
Allow clubs upto 12 Rookie list spots
Whats the point in limiting clubs chances to find hidden gems and develop them and increase their chance to improve faster
end of the day they still have to remain under the cap and atleast they are using the money to find players not just over paying new recruits before they deserve the increase.

Allow clubs to bank 10% of the cap rather than just 5%
after few years of bottoming out they can afford to keep their gun players with more $$ and bring in more players

Allow extra soft cap for teams that have finished bottom 4
18th extra $700k
17th extra $500k
16th extra $300k
15th extra $200k

 

[Yoda_]

Posted this on our forum but it's a pretty reasonable guide to show how long draftees take to mature and take the team to the promised land.

Every premiere has 'nailed' one draft with 3 x 100+ AFL game players

Brisbane (2024) nailed 2017 (Rayner, Bailey, Starcevic)
Collingwood (2023) nailed the 2014 draft (DeGoey, Moore, Maynard)
Geelong (2022) nailed the 2016 draft (Stewart, J.Henry, Z.Gutherie)
Demons (2021) nailed the 2014 draft (Petracca, Brayshaw, Neale~Bullen)
Richmond (2017, 2019, 2020) nailed the 2014 drafts (Short, Castagna, Lambert) and the 2009 draft (Martin, Astbury, Grimes)
West Coast (2018) filed the 2010 draft (Gaff, Darling, J.McGovern)

Western Bulldogs are the biggest outliers as they have constantly 'nailed' drafts (2008, J.Roughead, Jones, Picken, 2010, M.Wallis, Libba, Dalhousie, Jason Johanisen, 2012, Stringer, Macrae, Hunter, 2014, McLean,Dale, Daniel, Cordy)

The 2008 Hawks were lauded as being early. They still nailed the 2000 AFL Draft (Williams, Osborne, Campbell). The 2004 draft class (Roughead, Franklin, Lewis, Young) was in the right place at the right time. The 2013-15 Hawks still nailed the 2008 draft (Shiels, Shoenmakers, Breust, Suckling)

We have hardly nailed two high quality players let alone three from any Adrian Dodoro era.

Im bullish we've nailed one of the last two drafts, project that out the 8 years it looks likely taking and 2031 is the year we could hit the mark. With us contending around 2028.

The Tigers from last year should be bullish if they can nail 3 of those top 30 selections they had in 2024.


Funnily enough, the 2016 draft was the one Dodoro was set to nail but injuries have shot that down. McGrath, Ridley, Draper all taken

 

[Freomaniac]

Well it’s certainly not the sport itself...and I love Test Cricket so I do know a thing or too about ‘boring’ sports.

On topic - ‘Rebuild’ on our sport is often a convenient excuse.

It’s often beyond the list of players and more about the club itself, the standards, the expectations that exist internally and externally.

Clubs that expect success will go through ups and downs but will always bounce back relatively quickly. Same in basically every sport.

Are you enjoying the West coast eagles current rebuild?

 

[Altum Volantes]

Are you enjoying the West coast eagles current rebuild?

Random bump from 7 years ago at 3am.
Was I on your mind Freomaniac ?

To answer your question, it has been tough obviously but what I said still stands true. The club obviously dropped it's standards and expectations and have had a total clear out, top to bottom, so it's still a work in progress. I'll hang tough, what else can you do right?

Enjoy today's game, don't stay up too late.

 

[deck]

What's too long? What counts as contending? Top 4 or top 8?

The fact is if every team won a flag it would take 18 years for all teams to win one. You would play in 2 Grand Finals and 4 Preliminary finals in that 18 years. Based on a top 8 you should only play finals 8 out of 18 seasons.

But everything isn't equal and some clubs are going to have more success than those numbers meaning other clubs are having less.