Does the AFL have a blowout problem?

[AlwaysHawks15]

I'm always interested to know what easy ride the Cats have had this year? They played 6 of the top 8 sides currently in the first 9 rounds of 2025? They play their 6th interstate game next week, who should they play?

We have 3 interstate trips in the last 6 rounds if you want to compare. Have been to every state to play including NT. Had to play in Adelaide twice. Played all the bottom 4 once only. Think that's where the comments regarding your draw comes from, other contenders are doing the hard yards.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

I could have never imagined not watching every game of football if I'm at home, have been switching off more and more. Even the games I look forward to have somehow managed a blowout.

Sadly doesn't do much for the spectacle.

Netflix getting a good workout this year when I switch off halfway through the 3rd quarter most weeks.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Dogs, Cats and Crows. Dogs and Crows have been ultra consistent every week whether they have won or lost hence why there percentages are so high. No smashing when they lose and more smashing of other teams than others. All 3 play an ultra attacking game style due to the talent on their lists.

Oh yeah Dogs too. Isn't it ironic the Dogs have had no smashings, as their defence is considered one of the weakest.

 

[archereleven]

Netflix getting a good workout this year when I switch off halfway through the 3rd quarter most weeks.

3rd quarter?
I'm barely able to watch my own rabble and cant bring myself to watch any neutral football at all.

Shocking umpiring, blow-outs and inconsistencies throughout every facet of the game have done me in. If it continues, I cant see myself following the comp at all soon.

 

[JackFlash]

We have 3 interstate trips in the last 6 rounds if you want to compare. Have been to every state to play including NT. Had to play in Adelaide twice. Played all the bottom 4 once only. Think that's where the comments regarding your draw comes from, other contenders are doing the hard yards.

You're making too much out of it, it's more about the Geelong envy than anything else. Geelong have traveled too and still have to travel next week. They play 17 other teams just like everyone else including Brisbane, GWS, Adelaide and Sydeny away. You still have to win!

 

[Astro35]

Yes there's a blow-out problem. This is what happens when the AFL abandons equalisation and compromises the draft every year.

 

[Cleric]

I dont get it. I like watching an in form team just crushing another team with excellent play as much as watching a close game. As a Crows supporter I would much rather watch them destroy a team than get beaten by one point after the siren.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

I dont get it. I like watching an in form team just crushing another team with excellent play as much as watching a close game. As a Crows supporter I would much rather watch them destroy a team than get beaten by one point after the siren.

Sure, but if the Crows are the ones getting pumped; or for games you're watching as a neutral?
Carlton getting whallopped beyond oblivion is always funny, and if Hawthorn could go a few decades losing by a couple of hundred points a game that would be nice (as a Crows fan you possibly say that about Port); but beyond that?

When its not your team handing out the smashing, or a despised or comedy team losing, woukd you watch four quarters of a close one or a blowout? The vast bulk of people will prefer the close one provided its not too turgid a shutdown and nothing else game.

 

[Cleric]

Sure, but if the Crows are the ones getting pumped; or for games you're watching as a neutral?
Carlton getting whallopped beyond oblivion is always funny, and if Hawthorn could go a few decades losing by a couple of hundred points a game that would be nice (as a Crows fan you possibly say that about Port); but beyond that?

When its not your team handing out the smashing, or a despised or comedy team losing, woukd you watch four quarters of a close one or a blowout? The vast bulk of people will prefer the close one provided its not too turgid a shutdown and nothing else game.

Of course.
What I will say is this, the way the game is played today, with the 6,6,6, interchanges, zones etc, if a team is 20% off then the score against is much higher than it used to be.
The AFL wanted more free flowing, higher scoring games, and have made changes to the rules, the way the umpires decide things etc, and the result is what we see today. In the old days teams could flood, have 20 people around the ball, deliberately send the ball out of bounds, rush behinds from anywhere on the ground, hold play up by chipping it around and winding down the clock etc.
Today's if things are getting a bit congested the umps will find a free kick to award to move the ball out of the area.
Umpired are far stricter on what defenders can do against forwards, so more free kicks in the goal square.
I could go on, but I personally think this is now they way the game is.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

Oh yeah Dogs too. Isn't it ironic the Dogs have had no smashings, as their defence is considered one of the weakest.

That's because they score so heavily they are never out of games even if they are getting scored against alot. They lost to the Crows the other week, were outplayed yet still nearly kicked 100 points against 1 of the best defences in the comp this year. We kept them to 8 goals which looking back was an amazing effort considering what they are kicking most weeks.

 

[Makeshift Park]

https://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/afl-boss-andrew-dillon-blames-2025-blowouts-on-injury-lists/news-story/f7b06e599cfd3df1662d9ede8c3d3120

AFL boss Andrew Dillon concedes there have been “too many” lopsided games in 2025 but says lengthy injury lists and not fixture imbalances are to blame.

 

[kickazz]

There has always been blowouts.

What is different now, in their enablement of footy addiction and stopping us from doing other things wit hour spare time, is that there is very little overlap between games. So if you get a shit game you are stuck watching it.

Make2 games on Friday a regular thing, and then you can flick over to the good game.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Maybe the AFL should use better tyres if they do not what blowouts.

 

[iameviljez]

There has always been blowouts.

What is different now, in their enablement of footy addiction and stopping us from doing other things wit hour spare time, is that there is very little overlap between games. So if you get a shit game you are stuck watching it.

Make2 games on Friday a regular thing, and then you can flick over to the good game.

There have always, in particular, been blowouts at this time of year.

Young sides get injuries, they get exhausted, they get sore, they lose momentum as the finals are gone. That's why this end of the year is what results in a lot of smashings.

 

[TwoDivisions]

Here's the solution.

Split the league into two divisions with automatic relegation for last place in Div 1 and automatic promotion for first place in Div 2. Have a knock-in final system between 5th v 8th/6th v 7th with the losers contesting for a second relegation spot in a relegation final. 1st to 4th play off for the Premiership Flag.

In Div 2, f1-2nd v 3rd/f2-4th v 5th with Lf1 vs Wf2 in the preliminary final playing off for the promotion final with WF1.

6th-10th play off for a single relegation spot with the state leagues sending their grand finalists to an end of season carnival playing off for a single promotion spot to Div 2, winner takes all.

Home and away regular season would last for 18 rounds with a two-week mid season break containing a single All-Star mid-week fixture. Captain of the reigning premiers vs Captain of the runners up. Captains get to pick their side one player at a time from both divisions.

Why this works: Every game has something riding on it. Tanking for draft picks would disappear and there would be far fewer mismatches.

Why Australian Rules fans would reject this solution out of hand: Because it's too much like soccer and everyone knows that only Sheilas, Wogs and ****ters play soccer.

The AFL is a shit product as a consequence. Come at me...

 

[Obeanie1]

The AFL have come up with a revolutionary system to elevate bottom teams up the ladder and level the playing field -

Its called 'equalisation'

I'm not sure how it works, but I'll be sure to let you know when I see it...

Yep.

Equalisation where the team wining back to back flags gets more assistance with access to gun players than the team finishing last for years.

Never mind teams constantly playing finals with strong lists also benefiting from poorly devised policies ahead of teams struggling.

Like what could possibly go wrong. Not difficult to see why the comp now has two tiers and uneven games are becoming the norm.

AFL House are a bunch of amateurs only interested in their Christmas bonus and TV right deals.

 

[Obeanie1]

Here's the solution.

Split the league into two divisions with automatic relegation for last place in Div 1 and automatic promotion for first place in Div 2. Have a knock-in final system between 5th v 8th/6th v 7th with the losers contesting for a second relegation spot in a relegation final. 1st to 4th play off for the Premiership Flag.

In Div 2, f1-2nd v 3rd/f2-4th v 5th with Lf1 vs Wf2 in the preliminary final playing off for the promotion final with WF1.

6th-10th play off for a single relegation spot with the state leagues sending their grand finalists to an end of season carnival playing off for a single promotion spot to Div 2, winner takes all.

Home and away regular season would last for 18 rounds with a two-week mid season break containing a single All-Star mid-week fixture. Captain of the reigning premiers vs Captain of the runners up. Captains get to pick their side one player at a time from both divisions.

Why this works: Every game has something riding on it. Tanking for draft picks would disappear and there would be far fewer mismatches.

Why Australian Rules fans would reject this solution out of hand: Because it's too much like soccer and everyone knows that only Sheilas, Wogs and ****ters play soccer.

The AFL is a shit product as a consequence. Come at me...

How about we assist struggling teams at the bottom to get better faster.

And stop the assistance when teams get good and are playing finals and winning premierships.

Novel approach I know but that may just be something that would work.

Crazy I know.

 

[TwoDivisions]

How about we assist struggling teams at the bottom to get better faster.

And stop the assistance when teams get good and are playing finals and winning premierships.

Novel approach I know but that may just be something that would work.

Crazy I know.

How about the AFL starts incentivising excellence instead of rewarding failure?

Novel approach I know but what you've suggested doesn't solve the issue identified in this thread, which is the high volume of mismatches and blowouts.


Crazy I know...

 

[Makeshift Park]

Or we could just take equalisation seriously by

1) doing away with father-sons
2) making the academies AFL run, with prospective draftees available to all teams
3) devising fixtures based on fairness rather than squeezing every possible dollar out of big club fanbases
4) improving transparency, consistency and impartiality in the MRO and tribunal processes
5) stop introducing unnecessary changes to the game with the expressed purpose of increased scoring (ie allowing for more ad breaks) when the increased speed of the game is exacerbating soft tissue injuries across the comp, leaving rebuilding teams that have less depth utterly exposed

If all that was applied next season I reckon we'd see improved competitiveness.

 

[Purple Suit]

Here's the solution.

Split the league into two divisions with automatic relegation for last place in Div 1 and automatic promotion for first place in Div 2. Have a knock-in final system between 5th v 8th/6th v 7th with the losers contesting for a second relegation spot in a relegation final. 1st to 4th play off for the Premiership Flag.

In Div 2, f1-2nd v 3rd/f2-4th v 5th with Lf1 vs Wf2 in the preliminary final playing off for the promotion final with WF1.

6th-10th play off for a single relegation spot with the state leagues sending their grand finalists to an end of season carnival playing off for a single promotion spot to Div 2, winner takes all.

Home and away regular season would last for 18 rounds with a two-week mid season break containing a single All-Star mid-week fixture. Captain of the reigning premiers vs Captain of the runners up. Captains get to pick their side one player at a time from both divisions.

Why this works: Every game has something riding on it. Tanking for draft picks would disappear and there would be far fewer mismatches.

Why Australian Rules fans would reject this solution out of hand: Because it's too much like soccer and everyone knows that only Sheilas, Wogs and ****ters play soccer.

The AFL is a shit product as a consequence. Come at me...

So 10 teams in division 1 and 8 teams in division 2 since it doesn't work with 9 teams in each division?

If that started last season, Sydney and Bulldogs would be back in divy 2 and Carlton & Saints would now be in divy 1. Carlton wouldn't win a game, Bulldogs and Swans probably only losing to each other or maybe Melbourne could sneak 1 win in.

 

[Purple Suit]

Yep.

Equalisation where the team wining back to back flags gets more assistance with access to gun players than the team finishing last for years.

Never mind teams constantly playing finals with strong lists also benefiting from poorly devised policies ahead of teams struggling.

Like what could possibly go wrong. Not difficult to see why the comp now has two tiers and uneven games are becoming the norm.

AFL House are a bunch of amateurs only interested in their Christmas bonus and TV right deals.

While equalisation is a huge issue, I don't think it really fixes the blow-out problems. The more teams = bigger the difference between the best and worst sides.

Players being able to move more freely without draft capital would probably even it up more but you have to be careful not to just keep the best clubs up. As the player contracts get bigger, players could be more willing to take less money for success.

The AFL changing the rules for more goals means the scores are going back up and the margins are getting bigger. Wind back a few rules if you want to reduce the scoring and it will lead to closer games.

 

[Obeanie1]

While equalisation is a huge issue, I don't think it really fixes the blow-out problems. The more teams = bigger the difference between the best and worst sides.

Players being able to move more freely without draft capital would probably even it up more but you have to be careful not to just keep the best clubs up. As the player contracts get bigger, players could be more willing to take less money for success.

The AFL changing the rules for more goals means the scores are going back up and the margins are getting bigger. Wind back a few rules if you want to reduce the scoring and it will lead to closer games.

Being unable to defend against better sides is an issue.

666 rule
Last kick / handball OOB frees dont help weaker lists
Soft frees paid to forwards while defenders get manhandled and get nothing.
Soft arm chopping interpretation.

So yes, the AFL focus on scoring more and getting more " chicken time" ad breaks to sell advertising is a factor.

 

[joe444]

No - it's just that with every game getting its own timeslot, we notice them more.

If you want to look at AFL tables for yourself, the margins are pretty stable at slightly over 5 goals and have been that way for most of the century. The late 80s - 90s were more like 7 goals and, quite rightly, are remembered fondly. You can look yourself at the number of results per each margin bracket and, to save you the bother, there have been plenty of years in the past which were worse.

If anything, because we're one of the few pro competitions which doesn't play simultaneous games, we've got a visibility problem. We see more smashings rather than actually experience them.

 

[Obeanie1]

How about the AFL starts incentivising excellence instead of rewarding failure?

Novel approach I know but what you've suggested doesn't solve the issue identified in this thread, which is the high volume of mismatches and blowouts.


Crazy I know...

Reward excellence?

Sure. What could go wrong allowing the back to back premiers to rebuild their midfield with 3 x top 5 picks while they play off in three grand finals in a row.

The AFL set up the draft to get clubs rising and falling in cycles.

So your suggestion we should flip the draft? Premiers get pick 1 as a reward for excellence?

Sure. Great suggestion. Really well thought through.

Can't wait for the next great suggestion.

 

[TwoDivisions]

So 10 teams in division 1 and 8 teams in division 2 since it doesn't work with 9 teams in each division?

If that started last season, Sydney and Bulldogs would be back in divy 2 and Carlton & Saints would now be in divy 1. Carlton wouldn't win a game, Bulldogs and Swans probably only losing to each other or maybe Melbourne could sneak 1 win in.

Ten in Div One and ten in Div 2 with Tasmania and the Northern Territory getting their own clubs entering in Div 2.

10 (more) evenly matched sides with 18 home and away rounds with REAL jeopardy in EVERY GAME.

I'd also scrap the draft and the father-son rule in favour of an Academy system where clubs are fully responsible for the development of youth.

This idea that poor performing clubs should be treated with kid's gloves is no way to run an elite sport. Incentives for tanking should be eliminated entirely and replaced with incentives for excellence. The only "help" that poor performing clubs have any right to is dropping down a division until they start performing like they belong in the elite system.

As a West Australian football fan, nothing would make me prouder than one day seeing the East Fremantle Sharks, historically one of the most successful football clubs in the country, gain promotion to the national Div 2 league and who knows, from there their pedigree just might see them lift a premiership before my own siren sounds.

At the moment, WAFL clubs are simply feeder clubs for the big boys and that's a glass ceiling that simply MUST be smashed for the good of ALL levels of the game.