Does the Ansett Cup give a true indication?

[GoEagles]

In 2000 the 4 teams that made the semi finals for the Ansett Cup ended up as the top 4 sides in the home and away season. So following on that pattern, does this mean that Port, Brisbane, Hawthorn and the Kangaroos will be the top 4 sides in the home and away season?

Personally I think they will all make the 8 but it's not clear cut they will be the top 4 teams at the end of the year.

 

[sabre_ac]

Not if your an eagles supporter

 

[GoEagles]

sabre - If those 4 teams make the final eight, then there are still 4 places to be filled... the eagles will take one of them of course

 

[JUBJUB]

Go Eagles
Do you really think that the EAGLES will make the finals or is it just wishful thinking ?

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[GoEagles]

JUBJUB - you got to be in it to win it. Although I can't see us as top class premiership material with Ken Judge as coach.

 

[WCE2000]

i think the Ansett Cup gives an indicator but not a 100% indicator.
Its probably more around a 50% indicator as to how your team will go.

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[jod23]

Port are in the final and Essendon didnt win a game, yeah the Ansett is a great indicator.

 

[Bloodstained Angel]

Some years its such a good indicator of current form that sometimes the Ansett Cup is like a mini-preview of the Home and Away season.

Other yeras you wonder if its even the same teams out there, such is the lack of true form.

A recent example is Saint Kilda of 1996. Were Ansett Cup winners but when the real stuff started they were;nt anywhere to be seen rreally.

cheers

 

[The Dutchman!]

Yes and no.

Yes, all the sides in the quarters are probably good enough to make the 8 (though there are depth problems at Port).

No, Carlton, Richmond, Geelong and hell even little ol' harmless Essendon might have something to say about the September action...

That is all
Dutchy

 

[Mudholian]

In the last 16 seasons the winner of the ansett cup has finished in the top four that year half the time and played in finals 75% of the time.

The runner up fairs worse; in the last 16 seasons half the runners of have finished between 8th and 4th.

Adelaide are the worst performed runners up finishing 14th and 11th after being consecutive pre-season runners up.

Five times out of 16 the pre-season runner up has gone on to finish top.

Teams which have done poorly in the pre-season have typically not made the finals.

The conclusion is that the pre-season is one of the most reliable guides to minor round performance.
Mud

 

[InTheBack!]

An indication of for leading into the 1st 5 or so rnds & after that??

 

[Hawkforce.]

Originally posted by Bloodstained Angel:
Some years its such a good indicator of current form that sometimes the Ansett Cup is like a mini-preview of the Home and Away season.

Other yeras you wonder if its even the same teams out there, such is the lack of true form.

A recent example is Saint Kilda of 1996. Were Ansett Cup winners but when the real stuff started they were;nt anywhere to be seen rreally.

cheers

And where did the Saints end up the next year?

The pre-season competition is less about the season we are IN, and more about the season which are about to follow.

Having said that, Lethal is certainly making a point to his players by questioning their "heart" before the Hawthorn match.

That, at least, was all about the season proper.

 

[Frodo]

For those clubs that field full strength or near full strength teams then their play can be an indicator of how things are likely to go in the season. Of course it also depends upon the oppositions strength.
We do have a clear indication of how Port, Hawthorn, Brisbane, Kangaroos, Collingwood, Dockers, etc will go. We have not seen the Eagles at all and I'm doubtful that we have seen the real Essendon and Melbourne.
The first real match of the season is often not a real indicator either, but after round 4 we should be able to start the prognosis.

GoEagles, I thought judgey was crap last year but his drafting has been good and his pre -season approach has been totally different to last year. Give the bloke a chance...at least until round 4.

 

[Mudholian]

Originally posted by Frodo:
For those clubs that field full strength or near full strength teams then their play can be an indicator of how things are likely to go in the season. Of course it also depends upon the oppositions strength.
We do have a clear indication of how Port, Hawthorn, Brisbane, Kangaroos, Collingwood, Dockers, etc will go. We have not seen the Eagles at all and I'm doubtful that we have seen the real Essendon and Melbourne.
The first real match of the season is often not a real indicator either, but after round 4 we should be able to start the prognosis.

GoEagles, I thought judgey was crap last year but his drafting has been good and his pre -season approach has been totally different to last year. Give the bloke a chance...at least until round 4.

Essendon are the team that has most often won both pre-season and AFL premierships in the same year. However that wasn't the case after their 93 success. So those who want to see patterns which might be repeating could argue you have seen exactly the real Essendon.
Mud

 

[James2]

Teams which have done poorly in the pre-season have typically not made the finals.

Very difficult to see how you can reach this conclusion considering that between 1986-1999 the pre-season competition followed a knock-out system.

Therefore you could lose one match and you are out. I doubt whether one match is paticularly good evidence on which to determine a team's performance when the "real stuff" begins.


In the last 16 seasons the winner of the ansett cup has finished in the top four that year half the time and played in finals 75% of the time.

That's nice to know. How many actually won the premiership??

In my opinion, the Ansett Cup is a good indicator of current form. However, the season is too long and the variables, too great to suggest that it is a form guide ofr who will win the competition.

Cheers.

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"Strangely enough, in the midst of change, the present course may often be the most risky one. It may only serve to perpetuate the irrelevancy."

 

[GoEagles]

Frodo - ok fair point, Round 5 or 6 is where I'll judge Ken Judge on his coaching performance. It's no secret I'm not a fan of his coaching and some of his tactics he pulled last year, but since he's coaching the team I support I'll stick behind him... for now.

 

[sabre_ac]

Originally posted by GoEagles:
Frodo - ok fair point, Round 5 or 6 is where I'll judge Ken Judge on his coaching performance. It's no secret I'm not a fan of his coaching and some of his tactics he pulled last year, but since he's coaching the team I support I'll stick behind him... for now.

The worst thing the club can do is dump Judge mid season or even at the beggining.It has no positive effect at all.The club is in a rebuilding stage, and simply doesnt have the fire power to be serious contenders to even make the 8.

Its a rebuilding stage that eagle supporters havent experienced before.So take it from a veteran, give it time.

Out of curiosity what tactics were they?

 

[GoEagles]

sabre - the club wouldn't risk sacking Judge mid-season, the more obvious option would be to just cancel his coaching contract for 2002 at the end of the season.

"take it from a veteran, give it time"

Fremantle have already started rebuilding? Apart from Dale Kickett who is still playing, Freo don't have a solid base of players who have started in 1995 and have since had to retire unlike the Eagles from lets say 1995 (Evans, Pyke, Harding, Brennan, Hart, Heady, Mainwaring, Waterman and Woosha just to name a few) unless you want to count Andrew McGovern, Jamie Merillo, Scott Watters and Tony Godden

Ok tactic wise, Judge dragged Scott Cummings a number of times during the season. I know he was struggling with form and fitness for a while, but I have a strong belief that the club should ALWAYS keep the full forward in that position so it gives the midfielders and half forwards a target to kick too. At least Drum would never drag Modra off the ground.

 

[sabre_ac]

Originally posted by GoEagles:
sabre - the club wouldn't risk sacking Judge mid-season, the more obvious option would be to just cancel his coaching contract for 2002 at the end of the season.

"take it from a veteran, give it time"

Fremantle have already started rebuilding? Apart from Dale Kickett who is still playing, Freo don't have a solid base of players who have started in 1995 and have since had to retire unlike the Eagles from lets say 1995 (Evans, Pyke, Harding, Brennan, Hart, Heady, Mainwaring, Waterman and Woosha just to name a few) unless you want to count Andrew McGovern, Jamie Merillo, Scott Watters and Tony Godden

Ok tactic wise, Judge dragged Scott Cummings a number of times during the season. I know he was struggling with form and fitness for a while, but I have a strong belief that the club should ALWAYS keep the full forward in that position so it gives the midfielders and half forwards a target to kick too. At least Drum would never drag Modra off the ground.

Fremantle have been rebuilding since neesham left the club.After a number of shocking decisions were are finally getting back on track. Bad decsisions can be as bad as an aging list.Your right about the retiring part, but they never had a solid base of players to begin with.The only real stars left the club or retired, I can think of Allan and white.

At the same time the eagles ie both the club and supporters had it so good for so long.You were gifted in the early 90's with unbelieveable young talent.All remarkably around the same age in fact from the same state team.And so you were always going to loose them all around the same time.This should have been accounted for through the draft.Then again to ever be blessed with such a crop of youngesters is unlikely to happn again.

Judge dragging cummings is called discipline and even teaching.Something that has to be done.Cummings is and was dragged because he lacked at times accountablility and even effort. Most people would understand that if players dont follow instructions no matter who they are they must be held accountable.

Drum does this to a certain extent by putting Pavlich at hafl back to teach him accountablity.
Personally i see nothin wrong with Judge.Its your fickle supporter base that has had it soo good for so long that is been given a shot of reality.

Im not taking a swipe at any eagle supporter here.But eagles supporters are nutrorious for this problem.

 

[jod23]

Cummings should never be dragged, hes a confidence player and to be dragged from the field is a stupid move.

 

[Pessimistic]

You have to take it with a pinch of salt given percieved strengths and weaknesses but I believe that Essendons run of losses and Ports run of wins, in the same AC group cannot be discounted altogether. It must have some bearing on the season.

 

[The Dutchman!]

Possibly pess but you know I actually feel more optimistic about the dons actually having some renewed motivation - ie: of we'd won everything pre-season as opposed to nothing I'd actually just be waiting for the next shoe to drop (ala Carlton 96)... time will tell but given that Johnston (J), Fletcher, Solomon and a few others have all played well and Jimmy is still in the stables - well I just reckon we might still have a pretty bloody good year...

Port I think are more interesting and probably have now demanded some respect from the footy public in general - which is good for the National game and footy generally. Still reckon they won't have the depth to make the 8 though...

 

[Frodo]

I think that taking Cummings off was a mistake but the two big mistakes were :-

1) Playing defenders up front. The Eagles were ravaged by midfield and forward injuries, but we still had a cohesive defence with Ash and Jako at the heart. Players loke Glassy had the opportunity to mesh in to that defence. But Judgey pushed both Jako and Ash forward at times and Metro too.That destroyed the whole structure and demoralised the team.
2) He bagged the players in an aftermatch interview. It was wrong and I will never forget that. However I hope he has learnt by it.

 

[The invisible mullet]

In the past the Ansett Cup has been a good indicator of likely form in the next year or 2. This year, however, most teams appear to have played more of their draft picks than other years so to an extent you can excuse fluctuating form. Nonetheless, I think we can say that Port is looking pretty good value for a spot in the 8 (and can argue that 2000 was an aberration). Another thing that can be said is that it would have been a long time since a batch of new Essendon players hadn't played in a winning side after 4-5 games. It may be only the preseason but noone likes to get used to losing. Season 2001 is looking like a much more interesting season than the one just past.

 

[GoEagles]

Exactly jod! Cummings is a confidence player and won't be able to prove to Judge he's putting in a good effort if he's warming the bench.

Frodo - Bagging the players in the Press Interview was shocking and embarressing to the club. If he wants the club to have a high moral and spirit he should be supportive and encourage the players instead of putting them down and draining their confidence away.