Does the on going assistance to Gold Coast and GWS (backdoor rules on the fly) still cast a shadow on the contemporary premiers?

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Pessimistic

Make me an Admin!
Sep 13, 2000
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Melbourne cricket ground. Australia
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The most recent period of AFL history is completely and utterly unprecedented and unique.

During this time the AFL simultaneously established 2 new clubs, and in doing so distorted the trade/draft situation in a monumental fashion. The effects of this enormous distortion are still being felt even today, but at the time the effects were so massive that the implications could only be equally as large.

In real terms what it meant was that several generations of the elite players went almost exclusively to just two clubs, which was further compounded by devices such as mini-drafts and compensation picks given out for unsigned stars (and on-traded, leading to further distortions) for many subsequent years.

Whilst there were many implications to this gigantic upset of the natural order one of them was plain, and inarguable: the teams who were at or about the top of the ladder at that point were, via an accident of history, gifted an unprecedented opportunity to sustain their dominance.

Quite simply, instead of getting 3-4 or more genuinely good players per year for several years, the chasing pack got only 1. This translated into a situation whereby, arguably, it became incredibly difficult, if not impossible, for the them to catch the top performers.

This is plainly illustrated in the reality that, despite all of the explicit mechanisms to promote equalisation: for the last decade the same 6 teams have shared the Premiership spoils, with the 11 cups since the inception of GC being shared between just 6 clubs. All of whom, it turns out, were either at the top or on the cusp of success precisely when GC and GWS were brought into the competition and the trade/draft environment radically distorted. This is not a coincidence.

Now, please read the preface again. This is not to downplay Contemporary
clubs achievements; rather, it's to recognise, interpret and understand the extremely unusual conditions that have lead to the current status quo.

I'd be interested in any thoughtful comments on how far people see this distortion having an effect, given the current ominous look of Greater Western Sydney.

Im interested too
 

PhatBoy

Brownlow Medallist
May 5, 2016
24,585
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As long as there is an unequal fixture, nothing else really matters. The competition is always on an unequal footing. As long as there are priority picks - the reward for making yourself s***house - the competition is always unequal.

Siphoning off the talent to two new clubs seems the least concerning aspect of equality. The worst pre-existing teams still got the pick each year of the remaining talent. Yes that lowers their scope to pick up the cream of the crop obviously but they're still getting better players than the teams finishing higher up.
 

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Underarm

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 13, 2011
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I think the fact that Richmond had to look elsewhere (later draft picks +Rookie) has helped us lowball offers and keep the list together.
 

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Topkent

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Aug 29, 2010
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From 2016-2018 there were 6 grand finalists

The first time that happened since 1995-1997

From 2013 to 2020, every team except Gold Coast and Essendon made a semi final

The league's as equal as its ever been
That's a pretty useless stat the semi final one.

Carlton, Essendon, StKilda, North, Melbourne, Bulldogs, GC. 7 of the 18 clubs haven't finished top 4.
Dogs won a flag obv but that's alot of clubs that haven't really been competing.
 

Yojimbo

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 14, 2012
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The "Elephant" in the room.
AFL Club
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Hawthorn don't get labor party funding for their planned Dingley base then all of a sudden they get federal liberal party funding proving once again that life is a party and even if you don't get an invitation to the party there is always another party around the corner.

What has this got to do with GWS and Gold Coast getting assistance ? Nothing and Everything, are we going to Hell or the EPL ?
 

PJays

All Australian
Nov 2, 2020
634
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That's a pretty useless stat the semi final one.

Carlton, Essendon, StKilda, North, Melbourne, Bulldogs, GC. 7 of the 18 clubs haven't finished top 4.
Dogs won a flag obv but that's alot of clubs that haven't really been competing.
Where you finish is more accurately defined by where you finished after finals.

North played 2 prelims. In one of them they lost by 4 goals after having questionable umpiring against them. Melbourne played a prelim. Therefore both have finished top 4.

If you're within 2 wins of a flag then you're competing.

Dogs won a flag.

Carlton and StKilda look well placed for the next few years. And arguably StKilda shouldve top 4 this year. Finished 5th (finals adjusted), after losing 5 tight games that were decided in the last 2 minutes during the season. And lost the semi by 31 to Richmond but that could've well been closer (injuries, poor kicking, and an incorrect goal review all cost St Kilda).

That leaves Essendon who screwed themselves with supplement issue. Around 2013 they had a very exciting young team but clearly ongoing cultural issues with several players requesting to leave (Daniher, Ryder, Carlisle, others) plus a lost year and draft picks and playing 3 or 4 years it going on in the background.

GC are a basketcase and I don't think a single pro club of any sport has won a title up there. Not sure why but interesting observation.
 

Topkent

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Where you finish is more accurately defined by where you finished after finals.

North played 2 prelims. In one of them they lost by 4 goals after having questionable umpiring against them. Melbourne played a prelim. Therefore both have finished top 4.

If you're within 2 wins of a flag then you're competing.

Dogs won a flag.

Carlton and StKilda look well placed for the next few years. And arguably StKilda shouldve top 4 this year. Finished 5th (finals adjusted), after losing 5 tight games that were decided in the last 2 minutes during the season. And lost the semi by 31 to Richmond but that could've well been closer (injuries, poor kicking, and an incorrect goal review all cost St Kilda).

That leaves Essendon who screwed themselves with supplement issue. Around 2013 they had a very exciting young team but clearly ongoing cultural issues with several players requesting to leave (Daniher, Ryder, Carlisle, others) plus a lost year and draft picks and playing 3 or 4 years it going on in the background.

GC are a basketcase and I don't think a single pro club of any sport has won a title up there. Not sure why but interesting observation.
Yeah you don't need to explain the rules, you're kidding yourself if you think Melbourne or North were any where near a flag.

Your finish on the ladder is a better representation of how good a side you are. Dogs have been woeful since the granny, Melbourne and North were shown up in the final series as the pretenders they were.

None of those would be favourites to make top 4 next year either so you're talking about 8 years, nearly the cycle of a whole team with these guys.
 

PJays

All Australian
Nov 2, 2020
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Yeah you don't need to explain the rules, you're kidding yourself if you think Melbourne or North were any where near a flag.

Your finish on the ladder is a better representation of how good a side you are. Dogs have been woeful since the granny, Melbourne and North were shown up in the final series as the pretenders they were.

None of those would be favourites to make top 4 next year either so you're talking about 8 years, nearly the cycle of a whole team with these guys.
The claim I originally made was that the AFL's as equal as its ever been.

When has it been more equal than the last 7 years, when we've had 9 grand finalists?

I'd imagine there's not many professional sporting leagues of any kind around the world, where 50% of the clubs have made a GF within the last 7 seasons.

The AFL is unusually equal- and that's a good thing.
 

Topkent

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The claim I originally made was that the AFL's as equal as its ever been.

When has it been more equal than the last 7 years, when we've had 9 grand finalists?

I'd imagine there's not many professional sporting leagues of any kind around the world, where 50% of the clubs have made a GF within the last 7 seasons.

The AFL is unusually equal- and that's a good thing.
Just made that stat up, the NRL and A League have more variance at the top

9 different teams have made the super bowl in the last 6 years
9 different in the last 5 years in the NHL
10 in the last 6 years in the MLB
Etc

If you are going to make sh*t up at least do a little research mate.
 

PJays

All Australian
Nov 2, 2020
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Just made that stat up, the NRL and A League have more variance at the top

9 different teams have made the super bowl in the last 6 years
9 different in the last 5 years in the NHL
10 in the last 6 years in the MLB
Etc

If you are going to make sh*t up at least do a little research mate.
Go re-read what I wrote. I asked how many leagues have seen 50% of their clubs make the GF in the past 7 years.

You ignored league sizes. Those are bigger leagues. You're comparing apples with oranges.

Not a fair comparison- when you have more teams you need to review a longer time period if you're looking at grand finals. If the same teams are making the grand finals over the last 30 years and it's only the same 10 teams in a 30 team league, that's not very equal is it.

If you want a like-for-like comparison find how far you have to go back to the point from which 50% of clubs made a GF, then compare the number of years to number of teams in the comp.

How many teams failed to make the top 3rd in those leagues? 90% of the AFL has finished in the top 3rd (semi final) in 8 years. Is that true of those leagues? I doubt it.

My point is the AFL is as equal as its ever been, and more equal than most comps.

No need for rudeness, especially if you haven't even countered that at all.
 
Last edited:

FlowersByIrene

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 29, 2012
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They need to end the assistance to Gold Coast asap. Getting pre-listing access to two first round players this season is another ridiculous concession in an extremely compromised draft.

Stop trying to make Gold Coast happen.. it's not going to happen.
 

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