DONT TRADE CARLTONS PICK

[GROTTO]

I think you will find Brad Crouch is right up there in all Australian conversations right at this time. I also think when he gets into the team- Fogarty is going to be something special (go back and look at his U18 higlights)

Brouch started the year as a $5000 odds Brownlow winner now into $67 (ahead of his brother at $126

Would have taken a crafty astute judge to have taken an advantage of these odds.

Brouch is probably about 6 games away of being a lock for the AA, where he will sit on the bench.



GreyCrow

 

[Murray2503]

If you look carefully over the entire Crows list there is one thing missing - pure class.

We have built a team on not great draft picks, on trades and on rookie drafts. We have players that are good battlers and players that are good in certain roles. But we have very little class in the team. I'd say the only player with pure class on our list is Milera (you could also argue Betts but he's nearly finished).

There is NO WAY I'm trading the pick. If I can get a class midfielder out of it, who has a combination of skill and speed, I'm grabbing it and never looking back.

1 classy player will not solve our problems. It will help our midfield but our spine is ageing quickly.

 

[SuperBashBros]

At present, GWS have Essendon pick - No9 and it looks like they'll need points to get Green who could well be bid on at 3. Wondering if we'd swap our two second rounders for this - 19 and 29. Would be slightly overs pointswise (1601 > 1469) and I know is an even draft after first three but with a number of youngsters already in SANFL side might be good to put all focus on one player we really want/need.

Would be looking at doing this and going for whatever Norwood lad is left at that pick.

 

[Grenville]

Good teams like Hawks, Cats trade their 1sts for proven elite talent instead of taking risks in the draft.

Hawthorn core of elite was built through the draft mate. The top-ups came later, and in fairness is much easier to attract players once the list is recognized as a contender.

Hodge/Mitchell in 2001
Roughead/Franklin/Lewis in 2004 (Priority pick gave them 3 in the top 7. 3x priority picks handed out pushed us to 8!)

Thats not taking anything away from them, who worked the list incredibly well from there.

Geelong much the same (2001 draft was amazing for both), although with more F/S bonus along the way.

 

[Grenville]

1 classy player will not solve our problems. It will help our midfield but our spine is ageing quickly.

A core of 4-5 would though. That you can build around

 

[Deaneus!]

Sounds like a plan but you’re only going to get another Jones at 10 when we need a Dangerfield/Martin quality mid.

Where was Dangerfield drafted again?

 

[Murray2503]

Where was Dangerfield drafted again?

10 2007.

 

[ad victoriam]

Good teams like Hawks, Cats trade their 1sts for proven elite talent instead of taking risks in the draft.

They only trade their 1st rounders when they are in the teens, Rarely do good teams trade Picks 1-4.
These days with all work put into select talent keeping your 1-4 picks is the rule.

 

[GROTTO]

10 2007.

Even forgetting about hindsight, he should have been drafted earlier than 10, maybe 5-8 ?

Im talking about at the time not looking back at the best from that year.

 

[GROTTO]

They only trade their 1st rounders when they are in the teens, Rarely do good teams trade Picks 1-4.
These days with all work put into select talent keeping your 1-4 picks is the rule.

I would love to see though the top 5 picks from every year from about 4 years ago and a sample of 5 drafts to make a proper decision.

I would also like to see retrospective drafts positions. Im tired of hearing how good Rowell is. I would be interested if the Top 3 players from the draft would still make the top 3 years later.

I dont want to look at drafts from the 2000s, it wasnt at all professional as it is conducted today in 2019.

 

[marty36]

Good teams like Hawks, Cats trade their 1sts for proven elite talent instead of taking risks in the draft.

Geelong have clearly capitalised on hime grown talent and its actually been the secret to their success the F/S rule have seen them with Ablett Hawkins Scarlett and then they managed to convince Danger to come home for well unders in both Salary and Picks

should ADELAIDE play on that home ground advantage, they should at every opportunity

 

[Magma]

still believe we should get grundy with it. to me, take the certainty over the prospect. grundy is an elite footballer, we already know that. play the percentages. what if grundy decides next year to re sign with collingwood? and using pick 1 on a vic metro kid doesnt exactly put me at ease.

 

[Scorpus]

The people saying to take the best available talent no matter where they are from, I just feel that's a bit dated and lacks nuance in this instance.

Is it though?

The retention rate for players drafted to a different state actually seems quite good, even in the top 5 picks. Here is the list over the last few years.

Stayed
1 - Cam Rayner - 4 year contract
2 - Andrew Brayshaw 4 year contract
5 - Adam Cerra - 4 year contract
2 - Tim Taranto - 4 year contract
3 - Hugh McCluggage - 5 year contract
4 - Ben Ainsworth - 6 year contract
2 - Josh Kelly - 8 year contract
1 - Lachie Whitfield - 8 year contract
1 - Jon Patton - 9 year contract
2 - Stephen Coniglio - 9 year contract
5 - Matt Buntine - 8 year contract
1 - David Swallow - 14 year contract
3 - Sam Day - 9 year contract
4 - Andrew Gaff - 14 year contract
2 - Jack Trengove - delisted after 8 years
5 - Travis Boak - 13 year contract


Left and Went to a Different State
5 - Will Setterfield - actually a GWS academy player
2 - Josh Schache - left after 2 years
4 - Jarrod Pickett - left after 2 years, played 0 games, injured and also wasn't traded to his home state
1 - Tom Boyd - left after 1 year for one of the biggest contracts in history, now retired
5 - Kade Kolodjashnij - left after 5 years, significant injury concerns, home is Tasmania
2 - Jon O'Rourke - left after 2 years, played 9 games and delisted after 21 games
3 - Lachie Plowman - left after 3 years and 20 games
4 - Jimmy Toumpas - traded for a packet of chips
3 - Dom Tyson - left after 2 years but traded for Josh Kelly
4 - Will Hoskin-Elliot - traded after 5 years, last two years played just 13 games
2 - Harley Bennell - traded after 5 years, can't get on the park, off field issues
5 - Jared Polec - traded home after 3 years and 16 games, then traded out of home
4 - Cale Morton - traded after 5 years of spudding it up for a packet of chips
1 - Bryce Gibbs - traded after 11 years
2 - Scott Gumbleton - traded after 7 years for a packet of chips
4 - Matt Leuenberger - free agent after 9 years
4 - Josh Kennedy - traded after 2 years for Chris Judd
3 - Ryan Griffen - traded after 10 years for Tom Boyd
4 - Richard Tambling - traded after 6 years for not much
5 - Lance Franklin - left after 9 years and didn't return home

Left their Home State
1 - Tom Scully
1 - Jack Watts
5 - Jarrad Grant - delisted
3 - Xavier Ellis
1 - Brett Deledio

Left to a Team in the Same State
5 - Jake Stringer

Stayed in their Home State
Many

And that pretty much covers the players drafted in years which are still active.

Obviously lots of player movement. BUT a significant number of the players that left were spuds. Of the 20 top 5 draft picks to leave their club since 2004, I'd say 5 of them are spuds (Pickett, O'Rourke, Toumpas, Morton, Tambling). Another 3 left after significant injury issues (Kolodjashnij, Gumbleton, Setterfield). And then several others left after not really cementing their position (Hoskin-Elliot, Plowman, Leuenberger), and several others simply left to not go home.

So of the players that were significant losses to their clubs, we're left with this group:

2 - Josh Schache - left after 2 years
1 - Tom Boyd - left after 1 year for one of the biggest contracts in history, now retired
3 - Dom Tyson - left after 2 years but traded for Josh Kelly
5 - Jared Polec - traded home after 3 years and 16 games, then traded out of home
1 - Bryce Gibbs - traded after 11 years
4 - Josh Kennedy - traded after 2 years for Chris Judd
3 - Ryan Griffen - traded after 10 years for Tom Boyd
5 - Lance Franklin - left after 9 years and didn't return home

In almost all of these cases, the players leaving delivered the club significant currency. Kennedy traded for Judd, Tyson traded for Kelly, Griffen for Boyd, Boyd for high picks. Three players left after 9 or more years, giving significant service to their draftee club. The stingers being Polec and Schache who were traded for not much, with the jury heavily out on Schache as a player.

The list of players that have stayed is actually quite impressive. Of course there have been question marks on these players leaving, as is the case with most elite players, but most are either committed long term as of today, or have already played for 8+ years.

So in summary, my thoughts on the matter are that in general, good top 5 draftees do not leave their club. If they do leave, they are likely to deliver either significant currency in a trade, or have played a significant portion of time at the original club, or both.

I think we are biased to believe that top-tier draftees often walk out because our drafting retention record is worse than average for a non-Victorian club, when we really should be backing ourselves in to retain them like many other clubs have managed to do.

I also don't see any significant difference in player movement between the last 5 years and say, 10 years ago

 

[GROTTO]

Geelong have clearly capitalised on hime grown talent and its actually been the secret to their success the F/S rule have seen them with Ablett Hawkins Scarlett and then they managed to convince Danger to come home for well unders in both Salary and Picks

should ADELAIDE play on that home ground advantage, they should at every opportunity

They will if not already be calling for Doedee.

I agree these are the blueprints to win a flag.

 

[ad victoriam]

We need to remember in the last few years Drafting and the levels clubs go with the drafting has excelled greatly, We cannot use examples from 10 years ago every example from 5 years would be a reach.
The work the AFL has put into preparing these Kids to leave home has improved,
Player these days leave clubs for Money first. the go home only helps them decide which state to go too. After they have good offers.
And contrary to popular belief the Crows lose more players for Money than Go Home.
So I stand with taking the best talent that suits your team, to me at this time that is Anderson. make him Elite ASAP and he stays the course because the Crows will be fighting for wins in September every year. Worry about him in 5-6 years when he chasing Money like any player no matter what state they come from.

 

[GROTTO]

Hawthorn core of elite was built through the draft mate. The top-ups came later, and in fairness is much easier to attract players once the list is recognized as a contender.

Hodge/Mitchell in 2001
Roughead/Franklin/Lewis in 2004 (Priority pick gave them 3 in the top 7. 3x priority picks handed out pushed us to 8!)

Thats not taking anything away from them, who worked the list incredibly well from there.

Geelong much the same (2001 draft was amazing for both), although with more F/S bonus along the way.

Mate, that was 20 years ago. Today the draft is so much different and professional run, studied and examined.

Its an irrelevant discussion those 2000s drafts.

Lets look at 2010 to 2015 drafts at least and begin the discussions from there.

 

[GROTTO]

We need to remember in the last few years Drafting and the levels clubs go with the drafting has excelled greatly, We cannot use examples from 10 years ago every example from 5 years would be a reach.
The work the AFL has put into preparing these Kids to leave home has improved,
Player these days leave clubs for Money first. the go home only helps them decide which state to go too. After they have good offers.
And contrary to popular belief the Crows lose more players for Money than Go Home.
So I stand with taking the best talent that suits your team, to me at this time that is Anderson. make him Elite ASAP and he stays the course because the Crows will be fighting for wins in September every year. Worry about him in 5-6 years when he chasing Money like any player no matter what state they come from.

Its really the double blow of "go home and money" almost always hat causes us to bleed players.

 

[ad victoriam]

I would love to see though the top 5 picks from every year from about 4 years ago and a sample of 5 drafts to make a proper decision.

I would also like to see retrospective drafts positions. Im tired of hearing how good Rowell is. I would be interested if the Top 3 players from the draft would still make the top 3 years later.

I dont want to look at drafts from the 2000s, it wasnt at all professional as it is conducted today in 2019.

It hard to use Data from 10yrs ago as the Recruiting by AFL club has excelled Greatly in the last few years, the research, standard of interviews is nothing like it was 10 years ago, even compared to 5 years ago, The testing they do has improved, But to me the biggest Jump has been in the training these kids are getting, designed to prepare them and give recruiter a view into the future.
Add that to the gut feeling of a good recruiter. and early picks will not fail if your club does the right thing in development. which is just as important. And the one area where some Clubs with fail top picks.

 

[ad victoriam]

Its really the double blow of "go home and money" almost always hat causes us to bleed players.

The only go home is due to the amount of Vic clubs offering top money, Most are leaving for better offers and most interstate clubs are not playing the game with over the top offers,

 

[GROTTO]

It hard to use Data from 10yrs ago as the Recruiting by AFL club has excelled Greatly in the last few years, the research, standard of interviews is nothing like it was 10 years ago, even compared to 5 years ago, The testing they do has improved, But to me the biggest Jump has been in the training these kids are getting, designed to prepare them and give recruiter a view into the future.
Add that to the gut feeling of a good recruiter. and early picks will not fail if your club does the right thing in development. which is just as important. And the one area where some Clubs with fail top picks.

Yes thats what I said.

Starting from around 2011 onwards is a start. You need some sampling size to make a decent conclusion, hence several drafts need to be looked at.

One draft could easily be just an outlier.

 

[GROTTO]

The only go home is due to the amount of Vic clubs offering top money, Most are leaving for better offers and most interstate clubs are not playing the game with over the top offers,

That would depend on what comes first to that person, for some money is more important and others its family. Each is different.

Interstate Clubs struggle primarily because the AFL market in Victoria is massive. There is much more money to be made off field.

In SA and WA, its really only the best 3 players or so from each Club that make deccent money off field through sponsors etc.

Danger's official contract is a much lower offer than ours as an example.

 

[Murray2503]

Hawthorn core of elite was built through the draft mate. The top-ups came later, and in fairness is much easier to attract players once the list is recognized as a contender.

Hodge/Mitchell in 2001
Roughead/Franklin/Lewis in 2004 (Priority pick gave them 3 in the top 7. 3x priority picks handed out pushed us to 8!)

Thats not taking anything away from them, who worked the list incredibly well from there.

Geelong much the same (2001 draft was amazing for both), although with more F/S bonus along the way.

I'm recommending we go to the draft by turning pick 1 into 2 picks in the top 10 and going after a classy mid and luko. I would rather an 8 out of 10 mid combined with luko than a 9/10 mid by itself. Lets be honest using a pick on luko is essentially going to the draft as he has barely been at gc for 5 mins if he leaves end of the season. Btw if you get the pick right that 8/10 mid may be a 9.5/10.

 

[Mego Red]

I think you will find Brad Crouch is right up there in all Australian conversations right at this time. I also think when he gets into the team- Fogarty is going to be something special (go back and look at his U18 higlights)

Neither Crouch nor Fogarty are class though. They're both blunt weapons.

 

[ad victoriam]

That would depend on what comes first to that person, for some money is more important and others its family. Each is different.

Interstate Clubs struggle primarily because the AFL market in Victoria is massive. There is much more money to be made off field.

In SA and WA, its really only the best 3 players or so from each Club that make deccent money off field through sponsors etc.

Danger's official contract is a much lower offer than ours as an example.

Every Club has a cap on ASA's which include media commitments. some clubs share this around while other clubs add it to 2-3 players,
However, opportunities away from Football are greater in Vic than other states. outside the ASA, But I believe the increased use of Social Media will change the landscape of additional earning away from Football. and that is not tied to what State a player resides in.

Also, the increasing use of the older population use of social media will/has changed the go home factor, These days Kids talk to there parent for a dime, a few years ago it was costly to have a long chat and you almost needed a degree in computers to get set up and keep running. before that, it was a Phone call.
The advancement of clubs ensuring the Kids and their family are connected thru social media has improved greatly,

Time's are changing and the Go home factor is diminishing every year. thru education by the AFL and the ability to stay connected thru social media

 

[TexForPM]

I think we're looking at this the wrong way. What would it take to get pick 2 from the Gold Coast? There are only a few players of the table, Sloane obviously, anyone else? Our first 2020 and Doedee? Greenwood? For Anderson and Rowell? Gotta give something good

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Said this in another thread too.

Don't know what it costs but it sets us up long term, they're best mates and seem to compliment each other well.