Double-Death-Riding Carlton 2019 Edition - READ THE OP

How many games will Carlton win?


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WaynesWorld19

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Nah, too many terrible teams below and Mitchell isn't a crippling loss.

Will hurt Hawthorn though, and probably solidifies them as a 9-13 team.
You don't thinks so ?? .....who's Hawthorn's inside mid going to be ?? ......not O'Meara, or Wingard! ......Shiel? but who else
 

Golumless

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You don't thinks so ?? .....who's Hawthorn's inside mid going to be ?? ......not O'Meara, or Wingard! ......Shiel? but who else
Dunno, though, I'd question how important a pure inside midfielder is to a setup as a whole seeing there has been plenty of times a side has had one dominate and it not translate to anything. After all, the best pure inside midfielder in the league plays for a side that went 2-20. All they'd need to do is find one who'd break even on the regular and you've counteracted a large chunk of the damage, and a lot of journeyman level inside players can do that. Or platoon two of them, if you can't break even on one, and try to break even on numbers though that naturally harms elsewhere.

It does a fair bit of damage to the chance of Hawks making finals, as Hawks have the feel of a over-performed mid table team before this injury. It won't cripple them and make them drop to the bottom 5 however seeing it's able to be worked around.
 

Carmo

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Crows with a top 2/3 pick I am hoping grab Rankine end of 2019. Someone 'in the know' on the drafts board recently said he is not settling in well at Suns. Surely its only a matter of time before he returns home.
Crows supporter, neutral or Suns supporter?
 

kulak

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I knew he wasn’t 100%, but didn’t realise it was that bad.
It’s also that his one elite afl talent is two way running. Half fit Tom Scully isn’t an elite player.

Play a handful of games late this year, full pre season, watch out 2020. They will give him time like they did O’Meara.

They took a gamble on their medicos and his professionalism. If he was going as a free agent and we had committed that salary offer then I would be concerned, although we aren’t known for elite medicos.
 

kulak

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Dunno, though, I'd question how important a pure inside midfielder is to a setup as a whole seeing there has been plenty of times a side has had one dominate and it not translate to anything. After all, the best pure inside midfielder in the league plays for a side that went 2-20. All they'd need to do is find one who'd break even on the regular and you've counteracted a large chunk of the damage, and a lot of journeyman level inside players can do that. Or platoon two of them, if you can't break even on one, and try to break even on numbers though that naturally harms elsewhere.

It does a fair bit of damage to the chance of Hawks making finals, as Hawks have the feel of a over-performed mid table team before this injury. It won't cripple them and make them drop to the bottom 5 however seeing it's able to be worked around.
The loss of Mitchell will hurt but not as much as some think.

In my view high possession low hurt factor players are not as influential as their possession count makes it appear.

O’Meara steps up, Sicily plays a full year, Wingard returns to his AA quality half forward level, Shiels gets a bit more of the ball.

Clarko famously places little store in contested possessions. They are really going to struggle there.

Can they be the first team to routinely lose clearances by 20 and win anyway?

They will struggle against teams who can smash them in the clearances AND with the skill and system to take advantage. I had them as an outside chance of the flag but it’s hard to see that happening now.
 

Crow till I die

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Quite amazing that a potential wooden spoon team in rebuild mode doesn’t own either of their first or second round picks

Or that the same team, a contender, owns both of them.

How does that happen? Seriously
I posted on the stocker thread in the draft and trade section that SOS would have been better off trading 2018 pick 1 to us for 8 & 13. He could have taken caldwell who could be as good as walsh anyway and then got stocker at 13. That would mean their 2019 pick 1 or 2 coukd be used to try and trade for josh kelly who would be infinitly better for them than our 2019 1st that might be between 15 and 20 after academy / father son bids etc
 

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Pea Nut

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I think that's a reasonable assessment. Carlton most likely down the bottom but do pass your mind as a team that could potentially develop and improve in 2019.

Not so sure about Freo being tucked over on the other side of the world though :p
Carlton will play 22 games in 2019. Hard not to improve after only winning 2 games in 2018. Doesn't mean they won't be bottom 3.
 

GROTTO

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I posted on the stocker thread in the draft and trade section that SOS would have been better off trading 2018 pick 1 to us for 8 & 13. He could have taken caldwell who could be as good as walsh anyway and then got stocker at 13. That would mean their 2019 pick 1 or 2 coukd be used to try and trade for josh kelly who would be infinitly better for them than our 2019 1st that might be between 15 and 20 after academy / father son bids etc

Hmmm amazing how for SOS in hindsight that fool should have traded Pick 1 of theirs for our picks 8 and 13 and as you mention keep their 1st and 2nd.

The stupidity is breathtaking by SOS. Son of Stupid.
 

WaynesWorld19

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He was one of the only ones worth listening to during the trade period as well. Provides good insight and is balanced. Unlike Manure, Kornes and co.
When he started on radio /tv , he spoke too fast at a million miles an hour ...... you can hear from this snippet, he’s slowed down a lot (trained) and lowered his voice ...... improving all the time and as you’ve said provides good insight
 

Shaz2012

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I posted on the stocker thread in the draft and trade section that SOS would have been better off trading 2018 pick 1 to us for 8 & 13. He could have taken caldwell who could be as good as walsh anyway and then got stocker at 13. That would mean their 2019 pick 1 or 2 coukd be used to try and trade for josh kelly who would be infinitly better for them than our 2019 1st that might be between 15 and 20 after academy / father son bids etc
I am not sure they didnt do better than that. For starters, I would be absolutely gob smacked if Kelly chose to go to Carlton. Especially after his high quality team mates have gone to much better clubs like Essendon and Hawthorn. So if they are trading for lessor players then our pick is probably closer to the mark in value. Then you look at the fact that they got Stocker at pick 19, rather than what would have been pick 16. Also, if it came down to them taking pick 1 to the draft this year versus next year, then absolutely doing it this year was the right call.

I like the trade from their point of view. They are almost certainly not going to win it if you judge it in isolation. But factoring in how long they have been down the bottom and what the positives of splitting a future top 3 pick gives them by spending part of it a year early. I just like the deal they did personally. It might make no difference to them, but it potentially galvanizes the whole club - fans, players and management - to basically look forward and forget about the benefits of finishing last. Throw everything they have at every game they play. I think a year of that mentality will help their players develop long term as well.
 
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The loss of Mitchell will hurt but not as much as some think.

In my view high possession low hurt factor players are not as influential as their possession count makes it appear.

O’Meara steps up, Sicily plays a full year, Wingard returns to his AA quality half forward level, Shiels gets a bit more of the ball.

Clarko famously places little store in contested possessions. They are really going to struggle there.

Can they be the first team to routinely lose clearances by 20 and win anyway?

They will struggle against teams who can smash them in the clearances AND with the skill and system to take advantage. I had them as an outside chance of the flag but it’s hard to see that happening now.
The players that you mention are all good in their roles however none of those players can take the inside mid / clearance role that Mitchell provides and that is so vital in winning contested possession in order to ignite your offensive ball movement

IMO the loss of Mitchell is huge because the one gap on Hawthorn's list is natural inside mids that will then bring the likes of Smith, Shiels and Wingard into the game

I had Hawthorn missing the 8 even with a fit Mitchell, the loss of Mitchell now bookmarks Hawthorn missing the 8

A recent article had Hawthorn's midfield ranked at #15 in the league, now losing Mitchell the Hawks arguably have the worse midfield in the comp, a tough season ahead for the Hawks
 
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The players that you mention are all good in their roles however none of those players can take the inside mid / clearance role that Mitchell provides and that is so vital in winning contested possession in order to ignite your offensive ball movement

IMO the loss of Mitchell is huge because the one gap on Hawthorn's list is natural inside mids that will then bring the likes of Smith, Shiels and Wingard into the game

I had Hawthorn missing the 8 even with a fit Mitchell, the loss of Mitchell now bookmarks Hawthorn missing the 8

A recent article had Hawthorn's midfield ranked at #15 in the league, now losing Mitchell the Hawks arguably have the worse midfield in the comp, a tough season ahead for the Hawks
Top 4 minor round last year, added Wingard, and you had them missing the 8?
 

FR0GGY

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Its nice when a poster makes a comment like this. It shows the writer's opinion is based on hopes, dreams, and sparkle-covered unicorns and is easily dismissed.

No doubt makes for arousing reading while you mob play soggy sao but it just displays a lack of factual insight. Shame, because I really think you truly believe what youve posted and that in itself is a little sad.

Carry on lads :thumbsu:
How is Shiel going in the preseason?
 
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Top 4 minor round last year, added Wingard, and you had them missing the 8?
absolutely, didn't we make the GF and miss the 8 the following season

Hawks were terrible in the finals last year and got a good leg up on the back of a soft draw, I also rate Burton and think he will be a loss as I think he would have played midfield in 2019 and now they are really lacking in A grade quality mids and numbers to run through the midfield.

Not to mention the lack of top end drafting will really start to hurt Hawthorn moving forward

In my view WCE, Pies, GWS, Crows, Essendon, Richmond, Geelong, Sydney and North Melb are all ahead of Hawthorn at this stage
 
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