Double-Death-Riding Carlton 2019 Edition - READ THE OP

How many games will Carlton win?


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Squiba

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Yeah. Don’t have much choice though do we, the supporters with negative tendencies have generally fallen off after the clubs driven them mental for years only really leaving those mainly positive ones and stubborn fools. No idea what I am cause I’m only 25 and have never seen a sustainably good Carlton....

I do reckon Adelaide can finish anywhere from 4th-12th and we can finish anywhere from 14th to 18th.

Just curious what everyone believes break even in the deal would look like?
Purely for picks, break even may be around pick 8 and 19 for your pick 3ish

Lots of player selections or trades to happen afterward and years of development to see who benefited most though, as always.
 

tinman

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Yeah. Don’t have much choice though do we, the supporters with negative tendencies have generally fallen off after the clubs driven them mental for years only really leaving those mainly positive ones and stubborn fools. No idea what I am cause I’m only 25 and have never seen a sustainably good Carlton....

I do reckon Adelaide can finish anywhere from 4th-12th and we can finish anywhere from 14th to 18th.

Just curious what everyone believes break even in the deal would look like?
Firstly, stick with your club through thick and thin, the remaining Carlton supporters deserve some kudos for hanging in there in lean years. Eventually success will come as the AFL equalisation rules and the draft rewards failure. There'll be plenty of bandwagoners when you do succeed (note: see Richmond).

As you are "only 25" I do hope that you see this in your lifetime ;-)

Re the break even question, it's easy to answer but it's not. Forgetting fanciful notions of Carlton finishing above Adelaide next year the simple analysis is of draft picks vs draft picks where realistically Adelaide are laughing all the way to the bank. Adelaide clear winners on the trade.

Other factors:
All drafts are not created equal;
High draft picks can be duds;
Low draft picks can become elite;
Carlton got "back in the draft" to get a player they rated;
Carlton get that player they rate a year earlier than an early pick in 2019;
Carlton stayed in the first round next year;
Adelaide look like significantly improving their first round pick;
We have Hamish Ogilvie; and
Carlton don't have Hamish Ogilvie

This is the absolute beauty of footy. We can argue all week about who wins. Who tips 8/8 every week? There are upsets every single week.

I'm sure that it's what gives Carlton fans hope and I think Carlton, as a young team is going to be inconsistent for awhile. So you have the capacity to knock off a decent team one week, give hope, and then get smashed the next week. I hope you guys knock off Essendon (drug cheats) again next year even though we're "death riding" you.

Look at the Judd trade. How much would Carlton have loved Kennedy in their team for the last few years?

Then the "what if's?" Would they have retained Kennedy anyway? The deal looked great short term but has it stood the test of time? Would Kennedy, like Gibbs be traded out anyway as part of a rebuild? etc. etc.

So honestly to answer the question about break even is difficult and although I don't go to the Carlton board, I read this board and understand the views are quite different.

In my honest opinion it will take at least three years easy to really know, and if both clubs are happy with the trade now then then the trade is even. Otherwise the trade wouldn't have been done.

It depends on Liam Stocker and whoever Adelaide pick next year. If Adelaide trade the first round pick the waters perhaps become even muddier.

In pure draft pick vs. draft pick Adelaide look like easy winners based on likely finishes next year. But Stocker could turn out the best pick in the draft (like Dangerfield was for us at 10). Who knows?

Opinion, I do think that for this to become anywhere close to break even for Carlton Stocker needs to become a very, very solid A grade player (not necessarily elite) for this to become a win for Carlton and Adelaide need to pick a first round spud. And at the 2019 draft Carlton end up using "Adelaide's" first rounder end up with a better player than Adelaide's "Carlton pick".

Pick vs. pick = Adelaide win
Player vs. player who knows?

It will take years to really know "break even" or "win".

I do know I'm feeling confident as I have faith in Ogilvie and the club in selecting and developing the best talent.

And next year we are likely to have the best ever draft pick in the club's history (for a Carlton supporter just let that sink in).

If Crows are happy with the trade, and Carlton are happy, it's a good trade.
 

jumboprince

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Not that the Aus media is allowed to tell us.
They have kept that to themselves well didn't they?

"Oi, someones been a naughty boy but the Australian press can't tell you but the worlds press can"

Interesting threat 40 years ago but with the internet you were just like...oh, him hey?
 

SkyhorseTamer

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Firstly, stick with your club through thick and thin, the remaining Carlton supporters deserve some kudos for hanging in there in lean years. Eventually success will come as the AFL equalisation rules and the draft rewards failure. There'll be plenty of bandwagoners when you do succeed (note: see Richmond).

As you are "only 25" I do hope that you see this in your lifetime ;-)

Re the break even question, it's easy to answer but it's not. Forgetting fanciful notions of Carlton finishing above Adelaide next year the simple analysis is of draft picks vs draft picks where realistically Adelaide are laughing all the way to the bank. Adelaide clear winners on the trade.

Other factors:
All drafts are not created equal;
High draft picks can be duds;
Low draft picks can become elite;
Carlton got "back in the draft" to get a player they rated;
Carlton get that player they rate a year earlier than an early pick in 2019;
Carlton stayed in the first round next year;
Adelaide look like significantly improving their first round pick;
We have Hamish Ogilvie; and
Carlton don't have Hamish Ogilvie

This is the absolute beauty of footy. We can argue all week about who wins. Who tips 8/8 every week? There are upsets every single week.

I'm sure that it's what gives Carlton fans hope and I think Carlton, as a young team is going to be inconsistent for awhile. So you have the capacity to knock off a decent team one week, give hope, and then get smashed the next week. I hope you guys knock off Essendon (drug cheats) again next year even though we're "death riding" you.

Look at the Judd trade. How much would Carlton have loved Kennedy in their team for the last few years?

Then the "what if's?" Would they have retained Kennedy anyway? The deal looked great short term but has it stood the test of time? Would Kennedy, like Gibbs be traded out anyway as part of a rebuild? etc. etc.

So honestly to answer the question about break even is difficult and although I don't go to the Carlton board, I read this board and understand the views are quite different.

In my honest opinion it will take at least three years easy to really know, and if both clubs are happy with the trade now then then the trade is even. Otherwise the trade wouldn't have been done.

It depends on Liam Stocker and whoever Adelaide pick next year. If Adelaide trade the first round pick the waters perhaps become even muddier.

In pure draft pick vs. draft pick Adelaide look like easy winners based on likely finishes next year. But Stocker could turn out the best pick in the draft (like Dangerfield was for us at 10). Who knows?

Opinion, I do think that for this to become anywhere close to break even for Carlton Stocker needs to become a very, very solid A grade player (not necessarily elite) for this to become a win for Carlton and Adelaide need to pick a first round spud. And at the 2019 draft Carlton end up using "Adelaide's" first rounder end up with a better player than Adelaide's "Carlton pick".

Pick vs. pick = Adelaide win
Player vs. player who knows?

It will take years to really know "break even" or "win".

I do know I'm feeling confident as I have faith in Ogilvie and the club in selecting and developing the best talent.

And next year we are likely to have the best ever draft pick in the club's history (for a Carlton supporter just let that sink in).

If Crows are happy with the trade, and Carlton are happy, it's a good trade.
More logic, sense and ability to express oneself intelligently than is normally seen on Bigfooty. Thanks for the reply.
 

tinman

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More logic, sense and ability to express oneself intelligently than is normally seen on Bigfooty. Thanks for the reply.
And BTW IMO Arrow isn't a troll. He just doesn't know who to ignore on BigFooty, and responds to all posts.

I read his posts here but (strangely) don't see all responses
;-)
People need to get past the thing that a discussion board isn't the football field. Wins and losses don't take place on BigFooty, they happen on football ovals.
 

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This thread is OUT OF CONTROL! we need order people. Back to the basics please....
1: Carlton are all spuds
2: 18 of their starting 22 are spuds
3: Bolton is a spud
4: SOS is a royal spud and untouchable
5: Carlton supporters are delusional spuds and CANNOT be reasoned with.
6: irrationality from said spudlings will follow most reasonable and logical posts

Please follow these guidelines and enjoy the tread. Please post responsibly people. Thankyou
 
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Firstly, stick with your club through thick and thin, the remaining Carlton supporters deserve some kudos for hanging in there in lean years. Eventually success will come as the AFL equalisation rules and the draft rewards failure. There'll be plenty of bandwagoners when you do succeed (note: see Richmond).

As you are "only 25" I do hope that you see this in your lifetime ;-)

Re the break even question, it's easy to answer but it's not. Forgetting fanciful notions of Carlton finishing above Adelaide next year the simple analysis is of draft picks vs draft picks where realistically Adelaide are laughing all the way to the bank. Adelaide clear winners on the trade.

Other factors:
All drafts are not created equal;
High draft picks can be duds;
Low draft picks can become elite;
Carlton got "back in the draft" to get a player they rated;
Carlton get that player they rate a year earlier than an early pick in 2019;
Carlton stayed in the first round next year;
Adelaide look like significantly improving their first round pick;
We have Hamish Ogilvie; and
Carlton don't have Hamish Ogilvie

This is the absolute beauty of footy. We can argue all week about who wins. Who tips 8/8 every week? There are upsets every single week.

I'm sure that it's what gives Carlton fans hope and I think Carlton, as a young team is going to be inconsistent for awhile. So you have the capacity to knock off a decent team one week, give hope, and then get smashed the next week. I hope you guys knock off Essendon (drug cheats) again next year even though we're "death riding" you.

Look at the Judd trade. How much would Carlton have loved Kennedy in their team for the last few years?

Then the "what if's?" Would they have retained Kennedy anyway? The deal looked great short term but has it stood the test of time? Would Kennedy, like Gibbs be traded out anyway as part of a rebuild? etc. etc.

So honestly to answer the question about break even is difficult and although I don't go to the Carlton board, I read this board and understand the views are quite different.

In my honest opinion it will take at least three years easy to really know, and if both clubs are happy with the trade now then then the trade is even. Otherwise the trade wouldn't have been done.

It depends on Liam Stocker and whoever Adelaide pick next year. If Adelaide trade the first round pick the waters perhaps become even muddier.

In pure draft pick vs. draft pick Adelaide look like easy winners based on likely finishes next year. But Stocker could turn out the best pick in the draft (like Dangerfield was for us at 10). Who knows?

Opinion, I do think that for this to become anywhere close to break even for Carlton Stocker needs to become a very, very solid A grade player (not necessarily elite) for this to become a win for Carlton and Adelaide need to pick a first round spud. And at the 2019 draft Carlton end up using "Adelaide's" first rounder end up with a better player than Adelaide's "Carlton pick".

Pick vs. pick = Adelaide win
Player vs. player who knows?

It will take years to really know "break even" or "win".

I do know I'm feeling confident as I have faith in Ogilvie and the club in selecting and developing the best talent.

And next year we are likely to have the best ever draft pick in the club's history (for a Carlton supporter just let that sink in).

If Crows are happy with the trade, and Carlton are happy, it's a good trade.
Your reason and logic disappoints big footy...
 

1970crow

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They have kept that to themselves well didn't they?

"Oi, someones been a naughty boy but the Australian press can't tell you but the worlds press can"

Interesting threat 40 years ago but with the internet you were just like...oh, him hey?
I was rolling down the Stuart Hway as this was coming out. What was funny is that not long after Pell gets sacked from his advisor spot. Based on what they could say about the suppressed event and the ‘unrelated’ news on Pell’s demotion it was clear as crystal anyway.
 

1970crow

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More logic, sense and ability to express oneself intelligently than is normally seen on Bigfooty. Thanks for the reply.
Pre-injuries I was thinking our worst case was about 6th v 14th, so 13 and 19 for 5. I think it works for us because we’ve lacked pointy end talent, but have generally done well with our teens picks. I think it’s fine for you because you’ve used 19 to get someone a fair bit higher on your talent order. Gonna be a fun year.
 

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

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I never really disliked Carlton that much. North Melbourne were always public enemy number 1 (still scarred from Carey in the wet at Footy park and that bloody holding the ball against Sean rehn). The i moved to Melbourne and met a few Carlton Supporters

Never have a met a group of more Entitled, Ill-informed, blindly optimistic and Unedeservedly arrogant bunch of supporters.

Eg last year i was trying to ratchet a bet out of a mate on how many carlton wins. he said 9 wins. 9 wins! I did the bet for 5.5 wins for 2:1 wins.

This thread is so representative of his, and others hopeless views. SOS is untouchable, the kdis are all great, McGovern is the saviour, Give bolton time, Stocker should have gone pick 6, we'll win 8-10 games but but CRIPPA, CRIPPA?!?!!

You are no good. You have no idea. Your list is crap, your coach is worse. You have one good player and he can't do it all by himself.

2-3 wins MAX. Saints to bounc, Gold Coast to suck.

Regardless of where we finish next eyar, we'll have pick 1 or 2 and pick 19-20. Suck an absolute Bag of lemons Blues. I'll be laughing and smiling at every damn loss.
Cripps played about as good a game as he'll ever play in R23 last year. 37 disposals, 23 contested possessions and 17 clearances, yet his team got flogged by 104 points. So Cripps at his absolute best is clearly not enough.
 

goBlue

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Looking forward to this season, most people think Carlton are screwed with this deal, however you need to look into specifics. When Adelaide made the final, they had the likes of Lever, Charlie cameran, Talia (will have an interrupted pre-season). Also with the likes of Betts, Walker, Lynch, Jenkins, Sloane getting quite old the forward line + midfield could suffer from injuries. Similarly Simpson, Ed Curno, murph could also go down with injuries.

We have the likes of Weitering, C Curno, Mckay, Kennedy going into 4th years. SPS, Fisher, Williamson going into their 3rd years. Moreover, these players will be removing the spuds we had to play last year, e.g. Kerridge, graham, Mullet, O'shea who would stuff up passes going into and out of 50, screwing up our chances of not looking like fools. If we scored a goal, the likes of Mullet or O'shea in the backline would almost certainly turn it over removing any hope of a close game. We also have Setterfield who could go crazy from round 1, or be just be okay. Mcgovern who still hasnt played a full season could break out 2019. So many variables for both teams.

I'm heartbroken that Docherty is injured, probably career ending, as its nearly impossible to come back from two knee reco's. The presence he has on field is immense organising the backline and just his general gameplay. Most Adelaide fans will not take this into account, if Carlton get slaughtered this year.

However, saying all of this Adelaide could bounce back with a fresh season and finish in the top 6, and we finish in the bottom 2. Most things all come down to injuries, whoever suffers more, loses.
 
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WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

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Jesus who pissed in your cornflakes petal?

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
So that would be a no to backing up your claim that Carlton will win enough games to finish outside the bottom 2 with any semblance of a rational argument?

The baseline from this year was 2 wins. 3 of your best 5 players are over 30, with 2 of them having missed large chunks with injury and the other just waiting to fall off the age cliff. Your 4 new recruits are ok, but none are a Lynch, Beams or Shiel type trade that could dramatically improve your side.

Rowe and Wright played 17 and 21 games last year and are now gone, so you've lost some experience there. The rest of the team are either over the hill (Thomas), B-graders at best (Bugg, Casboult, Ed Curnow, Jones) or kids.

So unless several kids dramatically improve, you're going nowhere fast. Even winning 4 more games than last year still sees you in the bottom 4 at best.
 
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Looking forward to this season, most people think Carlton are screwed with this deal, however you need to look into specifics. When Adelaide made the final, they had the likes of Lever, Charlie cameran, Talia (will have an interrupted pre-season). Also with the likes of Betts, Walker, Lynch, Jenkins getting quite old the forward line could suffer froms injuries. Similarly Simpson + Ed Curno could also go down with injuries.

We have the likes of Weitering, C Curno, Mckay, Kennedy going into 4th years. SPS, Fisher going into their 3rd years. Moreover, these players will be removing the spuds we had to play last year, e.g. Kerridge, graham, Mullet, O'shea who would stuff up passes going into and out of 50, screwing up our chances of not looking like fools. If we scored a goal, the likes of Mullet or O'shea in the backline would almost certainly turn it over removing any hope of a close game.

I'm heartbroken that Docherty is injured, probably career ending, as its nearly impossible to come back from two knee reco's. The presence he has on field is immense organising the backline and just his general gameplay. Most Adelaide fans will not take this into account, if Carlton get slaughtered this year.

However, saying all of this Adelaide could bounce back with a fresh season and finish in the top 6, and we finish in the bottom 2. Most things all come down to injuries, whoever suffers more, loses.
I think missing Doc as an organiser in defence will be a massive loss. I think most cows supporters make that point when predicting doom, not ignore it.
 
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Looking forward to this season, most people think Carlton are screwed with this deal, however you need to look into specifics. When Adelaide made the final, they had the likes of Lever, Charlie cameran, Talia (will have an interrupted pre-season). Also with the likes of Betts, Walker, Lynch, Jenkins, Sloane getting quite old the forward line + midfield could suffer from injuries. Similarly Simpson, Ed Curno, murph could also go down with injuries.

We have the likes of Weitering, C Curno, Mckay, Kennedy going into 4th years. SPS, Fisher, Williamson going into their 3rd years. Moreover, these players will be removing the spuds we had to play last year, e.g. Kerridge, graham, Mullet, O'shea who would stuff up passes going into and out of 50, screwing up our chances of not looking like fools. If we scored a goal, the likes of Mullet or O'shea in the backline would almost certainly turn it over removing any hope of a close game. We also have Setterfield who could go crazy from round 1, or be just be okay. Mcgovern who still hasnt played a full season could break out 2019. So many variables for both teams.

I'm heartbroken that Docherty is injured, probably career ending, as its nearly impossible to come back from two knee reco's. The presence he has on field is immense organising the backline and just his general gameplay. Most Adelaide fans will not take this into account, if Carlton get slaughtered this year.

However, saying all of this Adelaide could bounce back with a fresh season and finish in the top 6, and we finish in the bottom 2. Most things all come down to injuries, whoever suffers more, loses.
I guess the issue is he is not a loss when compared to last year. I don't think anyone (even honest blues fans) expected his personal input to equal 2017, but his return was going to be a source of improvement, which is no longer there.
 

goBlue

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I think missing Doc as an organiser in defence will be a massive loss. I think most cows supporters make that point when predicting doom, not ignore it.
Not necessarily saying u wont make that point now, however, over the season people will forget and say what a bad deal SoS did when he could've never predicted Docherty would get injured.
 

goBlue

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I guess the issue is he is not a loss when compared to last year. I don't think anyone (even honest blues fans) expected his personal input to equal 2017, but his return was going to be a source of improvement, which is no longer there.
It's not just his personal input to a game, its his organisation in the backline, knowing were to be at the right time. Footy smarts that some players dont have.
 
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