List Mgmt. Draft Discussion 2016

[SaintsSeptember]

From say the first time I saw him play his kicking didn't stand out to me as being technically bad. There are some that you watch where the way they drop the ball onto their boot is really poor and it sticks out immediately, but I didn't go away from my first viewing or two of him remembering him being a terrible kick of the footy (having not heard of him prior to that game, so I wasn't expecting or not expecting anything).

Not having watched him super-closely to really analyse it, but to me I suspect a lot of his poor kicks are more as a result of poor decision making than a technically poor kick. Like "why the hell did he kick it there?" sort of thing. He probably blazes away a bit too often. He may also be technically poor, but again, it didn't stick out to me as something I remembered, although that may just be because the thing that really stuck in my mind about him was the way he broke the lines with seriously good run that had me thinking, "wow, we could really do with some of that!!".

Obviously it's far from ideal for him to either have poor decision making or a poor kick, but when you're picking at 23, pretty much everyone is going to have holes in their game of some sort, so it's just a matter of whether he brings enough of the things you want to the table and doesn't do too much of the things you don't, to make it not worth picking him.

If you're picking him, it's not because he's perfect, but because he's a "difference maker". He makes things happen, can bust games open and really stands out and is physical, aggressive and big. He is I imagine the type of guy who could lift his team in big moments and is meant to have good leadership qualities.

Again, Gilbo came top 3 in our B&F in a GF year in 2010 for a lot of similar reasons and Harry O'Brien was probably a similar sort for Collingwood. He would just blaze away with long bombs most of the time, but he regularly broke games open with his run, gained his team a lot of meterage and made an AA team in a premiership year as a result. You wouldn't necessarily want 22 of them in your team, but one or two can really have their place and make a difference.

With the way we like to play and really move the ball quickly and take the game on, I reckon we could really do with someone like SPP. On the other hand, we may think we already have him, in Mav.

Edit: Speaking of Mav, one thing that SPP does have going for his kicking is that, like Mav's, it's powerful and he can kick it long. Prior to this year I would have said that Mav is a powerful kick who can kick it with penetration up to 60m, but that he missed far too many short targets (which is probably what you'd say about SPP), but this year Mav's kicking improved considerably- so much so that I'd now pretty much call it a weapon- so maybe we'd be able to get SPP's kicking to improve a similar amount, if Gilbee gets a hold of him.

OK i'm on the SPP wagon. If we get him and end up with all of the Saints fans on big footy bemoaning his disposal..... I'm blaming you. ( that's fair isn't it )?

 

[Mighty_sainter]

Talk is that West Coast are heavily into Bolton and SPP, possibly hoping to get Bolton at 12 and PP at 29.

Having seen SPP play in some of the televised champs games both this year and last and seen his numbers and write-ups about him and so-on, I would certainly suggest that he's got a higher level of talent than Nathan, more versatility and much more of an attacking/offensive game.

Needs to be remembered that while SPP doesn't rack up huge numbers, Wrighty never has and from memory only averaged about 13 or 14 disposals per game off HB in the champs in his draft year. Nothing has changed.

Aside from his very first AFL game, when he had 22, he has never had more than 16 in his 29 games since and this year he only reached 10 disposals twice, from his 10 games. At VFL level things aren't much different, as from memory he rarely if ever has more than about 22 touches (the most he had in 6 games there this year) and he's never that I'm aware of shown any inside midfield capabilities.

SPP on the other hand has shown that he can play HBF, HFF and on the ball and like Wrighty, played off HB in the champs last year (his underage year) and according to an article earlier in the year, rated "above average" for disposals and metres gained: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...n/news-story/d6edbe29b3055f1dfcbff852fb0bdf9a.

So it sounds like he was getting more of the ball and probably gaining more meterage in the champs in his underage year than Nathan did in his draft year, playing the same role. That to me is pretty clear evidence that he is on a higher level, especially since he continued to play good footy this year, in more difficult positions. Everyone knew about SPP 18 months out from his draft, whereas I doubt many had heard of Nath until about 6 months out from his, because he's just not as good/talented.

At colts level this year SPP had one game of 25 disposals and 5 goals and had 22, kicked 4 goals and laid 7 tackles in the grand final (most dispsosals he had in a game was 28). I doubt very much that Wrighty ever had games anything like these in TAC Cup footy and having just looked up his TAC Cup stats from his draft year, he had 24 disposals and 1 goal, 13 disposals, 16 disposals, 15 disposals, 11 disposals and 2 goals, 22 disposals and 5 disposals, in his 6 games for Dandeong Stingrays in his draft year. He just struggles to find the footy, doesn't have a midfield game and doesn't hit the scoreboard anywhere near as heavily as SPP does or can.

Wrighty went at pick 24 of his draft, but it needs to be remembered that that was a compromised draft, that would have otherwise had JOM and Brad Crouch in it, Dayle Garlett was considered a top 5 talent, who didn't get picked up at all and Jack Viney went at 26, after being bid on at 7. So 24 was more like 28 and having a look at it, that was a bloody ordinary draft after the first 7 (or 8, if you include Viney), whereas this year's draft is meant to be a very good one up until at least 30-35. Knowing what we do about who's in this year's draft pool and that Nathan played HBF in his draft year, didn't get much of the ball and is a terrible kick, I doubt very much he'd go in the top 40 of this year's draft, whereas SPP could go anywhere from about 15-30.

PP is probably not as good defensively (very few would be), but I think he'd still be very capable defensively, given his size, aggression, competitiveness and speed and I fully expect he'll be much more of a threat offensively and much more versatile, with the ability to rotate through the guts and be a real impact type in there. He's also listed at an inch or so taller (188cm in some places) and may still have a bit of growth in him, so could end up a big, powerful, explosive wrecking ball.

To me he's much more like a cross between Wrighty, Mav and Dustin Martin than a Wrighty clone.

Couldn't of said it any better

 

[Dr Spaceman]

OK i'm on the SPP wagon. If we get him and end up with all of the Saints fans on big footy bemoaning his disposal..... I'm blaming you. ( that's fair isn't it )?

That's a fair boot you're displaying there yourself [emoji12]

 

[SaintsSeptember]

That's a fair boot you're displaying there yourself [emoji12]

To be honest i don't mind the poor disposal as much as all the Saints fans bemoaning it.

 

[Gangnam Saint]

From say the first time I saw him play his kicking didn't stand out to me as being technically bad. There are some that you watch where the way they drop the ball onto their boot is really poor and it sticks out immediately, but I didn't go away from my first viewing or two of him remembering him being a terrible kick of the footy (having not heard of him prior to that game, so I wasn't expecting or not expecting anything).

Not having watched him super-closely to really analyse it, but to me I suspect a lot of his poor kicks are more as a result of poor decision making than a technically poor kick. Like "why the hell did he kick it there?" sort of thing. He probably blazes away a bit too often. He may also be technically poor, but again, it didn't stick out to me as something I remembered, although that may just be because the thing that really stuck in my mind about him was the way he broke the lines with seriously good run that had me thinking, "wow, we could really do with some of that!!".

Obviously it's far from ideal for him to either have poor decision making or a poor kick, but when you're picking at 23, pretty much everyone is going to have holes in their game of some sort, so it's just a matter of whether he brings enough of the things you want to the table and doesn't do too much of the things you don't, to make it not worth picking him.

If you're picking him, it's not because he's perfect, but because he's a "difference maker". He makes things happen, can bust games open and really stands out and is physical, aggressive and big. He is I imagine the type of guy who could lift his team in big moments and is meant to have good leadership qualities.

Again, Gilbo came top 3 in our B&F in a GF year in 2010 for a lot of similar reasons and Harry O'Brien was probably a similar sort for Collingwood. He would just blaze away with long bombs most of the time, but he regularly broke games open with his run, gained his team a lot of meterage and made an AA team in a premiership year as a result. You wouldn't necessarily want 22 of them in your team, but one or two can really have their place and make a difference.

With the way we like to play and really move the ball quickly and take the game on, I reckon we could really do with someone like SPP. On the other hand, we may think we already have him, in Mav.

Edit: Speaking of Mav, one thing that SPP does have going for his kicking is that, like Mav's, it's powerful and he can kick it long. Prior to this year I would have said that Mav is a powerful kick who can kick it with penetration up to 60m, but that he missed far too many short targets (which is probably what you'd say about SPP), but this year Mav's kicking improved considerably- so much so that I'd now pretty much call it a weapon- so maybe we'd be able to get SPP's kicking to improve a similar amount, if Gilbee gets a hold of him.

Now that we're not doing 30 pages a day I actually get to read your posts.
You have me interested in SPP now.
Good post.

 

[Southseas]

really good point!

i wonder if a club before our pick will take zac fisher, the numbers for his size scream select me and develop me. plus you know with his elite disposal that he can really really hurt sides, so it gives those numbers the extra WOW factor. he's one that i can see really climbing the mock draft rankings as info starts to get out on who clubs are interested in

he is really slight though! a club would have to feel comfortable in their ability to bulk him up a bit

he could be a gaff type but with elite disposal and possession that just kills sides. him on the wing with that boot getting ti 25-30 times a game would be very very handy

hey where are the combine results for this year?

Was told Carlton keen with their second pick on fisher so could sneak him.

 

[Rors]

Carlton will take Patrick Kerr. Grandfather is a Blues legend & his grandmother is their #1 female ticketholder

 

[Fyfe2Shenton]

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/17958126/knightmares-afl-list-analysis-does-your-club-need

Thoughts on this?

Personally, I don't understand why he thinks we need to draft another ruckman and the subtle dismissal of Billings' talent irked me, but I think the rest is fairly accurate.

 

[Sir Skid]

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/17958126/knightmares-afl-list-analysis-does-your-club-need

Thoughts on this?

Personally, I don't understand why he thinks we need to draft another ruckman and the subtle dismissal of Billings' talent irked me, but I think the rest is fairly accurate.

No way will we be taking a ruckman. We have 4 on the list and a heap of other talls so makes no sense.
Billings is developing fine. Injured and will make his mark this year IMO.
2 x Mids and a Dempster replacement for mine.

 

[goodie23]

4. Young ruckman - (with Billy Longer and Lewis Pierce the only ruckmen under the age of 25, and with Longer's development stalling, a young ruckman to have developing for the long-term would be advised)

 

[Hayes4PM]

I agree re: a young key defender. We've got a few now, but N Brown realistically could only have 3 years left. Hughy is still developing and not a best 22 lock. I think one KPD on our list is a good idea.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I agree re: a young key defender. We've got a few now, but N Brown realistically could only have 3 years left. Hughy is still developing and not a best 22 lock. I think one KPD on our list is a good idea.

I think part of the strategy is to give Goddard some time.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/17958126/knightmares-afl-list-analysis-does-your-club-need

Thoughts on this?

Personally, I don't understand why he thinks we need to draft another ruckman and the subtle dismissal of Billings' talent irked me, but I think the rest is fairly accurate.

Collingwood , Geelong ,North, Sydney, West Coast, apparently the only clubs not crying out for rucks.

 

[gringo2011]

O'Shea is taller & heavier than Dempster, so not sure of the Tom Simpkin comparison

Holy shit I just looked it up he's 197 but plays shorter like Roberton or Gilbert. I have watched him play and he certainly doesn't play to his size, he seems like a mid sized running back to me but I'm no expert on him as you can tell.

 

[gringo2011]

OK i'm on the SPP wagon. If we get him and end up with all of the Saints fans on big footy bemoaning his disposal..... I'm blaming you. ( that's fair isn't it )?

You can blame me too, I love the Pepperman.

 

[Barrels]

Holy shit I just looked it up he's 197 but plays shorter like Roberton or Gilbert. I have watched him play and he certainly doesn't play to his size, he seems like a mid sized running back to me but I'm no expert on him as you can tell.

He's 193cm 91kg. The 197cm is a Wikipedia typo.

 

[goodie23]

Collingwood , Geelong ,North, Sydney, West Coast, apparently the only clubs not crying out for rucks.

Which is funny because Collingwood traded out Witts, Geelong traded out Vardy and retired Clark, North has less "rucks under 25" than we do (a twenty-one year old rookie with 0 games under his belt), Sydney traded out Nankervis and West Coast has been hemorrhaging rucks.

He may have an eye for talent but I don't trust his list assessment.

 

[gringo2011]

I can see why KM might think we should look at a back up young ruck, we seem to have a lot in the same age brackets. Any good ones in their mid 20s will want opportunity so you probably do want an age spread but I would leave it until we need to put one in, like if one leaves or is delisted.

The other stuff is probably right but doesn't take into account the potential next step of quite a few players who are close to taking a leap in quality. I actually think we probably need to address the small forward options. The way we play stacks up really well against the Dogs and Swans but both have several guys who can heavily score in the forward line but offer run around the ground. The Dogs got out of heaps of trouble with their big spread of smaller scoring options. We have Wright, Minch, Mav, Lonie and Skunk but apart from Tim none of them are regular high output players. I wish we had a pick for Ainsworth no matter how floggish he is he's what I reckon we need.

 

[Rors]

Isn't the bloke about 25 yrs old? He makes out like he's some genius talent spotter & drafting guru with decades of experience, when really he's just a kid who has a talent for writing

 

[gringo2011]

Isn't the bloke about 25 yrs old? He makes out like he's some genius talent spotter & drafting guru with decades of experience, when really he's just a kid who has a talent for writing

I didn't think he was that young, he seems to have been doing it for ages so must have been 12 when he started. He does seem pretty good at draft analysis no matter how young he is. He must devote a shit load of his time to what he does. I'm already ridiculously unproductive just reading dumb opinions on BF, I would need a second life to do what he does. He's no messiah but he's a good read even if you disagree with him.

 

[Barrels]

Isn't the bloke about 25 yrs old? He makes out like he's some genius talent spotter & drafting guru with decades of experience, when really he's just a kid who has a talent for writing

Probably younger. And talent?

 

[bergholt]

Probably younger. And talent?

Your guy at Draft Central is about 20 isn't he?

 

[RoundCubic]

KM part about small forwards shows a lack of understanding of our game plan.
RIcho wants our mids running in to crumb the ball no sitting in the forwardline clogging it up and allowing the defender to get intercept marks.
Why have 1 small crumbing forward kicking 30+ goals when we can have 4 mids kicking 20.
But maybe he's right maybe we should made a play for the Maynetrain
Stkilda was simple Mids Mids Mids and a tall defender

 

[Rors]

Probably younger. And talent?

He writes his articles well for a kid IMHO. The content is another story

 

[aussierulesrules]

Definitely under 25yo. About 21 at most. His name is on his ESPN articles and he's on Facebook (the one with the photo inside the play equipment). Would have well and truly still been at school when he started doing his phantoms.

I don't really have much issue with what he said about us except for the ruck part and I also think he's overlooked the potential of Jack Lonie in the crumbing role up forward. Thought what he said about Billings was perfectly reasonable. Given that he was talking about the outside midfield role, Jack has really only played 2 or 3 games worth talking about there, so he's far from established in that role.