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List Mgmt. Draft Discussion 2016

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Hayes4PM said:
People are losing their minds over Taranto, I don't get it, yeah he's had a great year and definitely rocketing up the order but I'd prefer guys that have shown a lot for a long time. Brodie, SPS, Scrimshaw etc. Guys that aren't just having a breakout year but have had excellent years for a long time. Nakia Cockatoo had a great finish to his draft year and jumped up to 10. Give me any of the 5 blokes taken right after him 110%. I know every case is different, but people get swept up in improvement sometimes. I rate Taranto for what it's worth, but if he goes before our pick and we keep pick 10, I'm happy with that.

Peter Wright was rated super high for a long time and then a few kids had good draft years and he slipped to 8. I would take him before Garlett, Ahern and Marchbank. De Goey questionable.
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Jack Billings is an example of someone who had years of good performances on the board, while Bontempelli is an example of someone who, like Taranto, came home really hard late in his draft year. We went the safe option and took Billings at 3 and WB took the punt of Bont at 4 and he's now looking like someone who could make 8 AA teams, win 3 Brownlows and lift his team to a few flags. JB may end up really good, but he's got his work cut out to have anywhere near the career Bont is likely to.

Last year it was Clayton Oliver who came home really hard and got picked up at pick 4 or so and he is another who looks like being a bloody ripper once he builds a tank.

The year before Bont is was Jack Macrae who came home really hard and went at pick 6 and he then quickly became the youngest to pick up 40 disposals in an AFL game and last night he had 39 in a final, against the 3 time reigning premiers.

As for Cockatoo, he is not someone who just came from nowhere, as he'd played a lot of top notch footy in previous years, but then missed all bar the GF in his draft year with injury, so he was no different to say Jake Lever- who missed his whole draft year with an injury, but was still picked high due to how well he'd performed prior to that.

Western Bulldogs for instance are a club who apparently put a lot of stock in whether someone really improves in their draft year and their drafting of late would have to be clearly the best in the league, so I reckon they'd rate Taranto really highly this year and probably be right again.
 
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aussierulesrules said:
Jack Billings is an example of someone who had years of good performances on the board, while Bontempelli is an example of someone who, like Taranto, came home really hard late in his draft year. We went the safe option and took Billings at 3 and WB took the punt of Bont at 4 and he's now looking like someone who could make 8 AA teams, win 3 Brownlows and lift his team to a few flags. JB may end up really good, but he's got his work cut out to have anywhere near the career Bont is likely to.

Last year it was Clayton Oliver who came home really hard and got picked up at pick 4 or so and he is another who looks like being a bloody ripper once he builds a tank.

The year before Bont is was Jack Macrae who came home really hard and went at pick 6 and he then quickly became the youngest to pick up 40 disposals in an AFL game and last night he had 39 in a final, against the 3 time reigning premiers.

As for Cockatoo, he is not someone who just came from nowhere, as he'd played a lot of top notch footy in previous years, but then missed all bar the GF in his draft year with injury, so he was no different to say Jake Lever- who missed his whole draft year with an injury, but was still picked high due to how well he'd performed prior to that.

Western Bulldogs for instance are a club who apparently put a lot of stock in whether someone really improves in their draft year and their drafting of late would have to be clearly the best in the league, so I reckon they'd rate Taranto really highly this year and probably be right again.
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There are examples of each, I'm still VERY skeptical of Oliver at pick 4, don't know how you can back that selection over Parish and half a dozen others after him (Gresh being one!). And Jack Macrae was always rated pretty high wasn't he? And Cockatoo was rated nowhere near top 10 until he had a few good games at the end of his draft year. I listed several that supported my argument and so did you for yours. For the Dogs it worked out, GWS not so much; Pickett (4), Marchbank (6) and Ahern (7) ahead of a guy long rated as a potential pick 1 in Wright. Bont is the trophy boy/textbook example of a guy who clicked and just skyrocketed his development in his final year and then continued onwards. But you've got to be careful of overvaluing a players draft year and disregarding other who have had injuries or an interrupted draft year IMO.

Jake Lever would go top 5 now, he'd have to. He is a genuine slider at pick 14. He's solid as a rock down back as a tall defender at the age of 20. I think Burton is another that people will look back on and go "How the **** did he slide to 19?" when he missed a lot of his draft year. Jy Simpkin could be the one this year, if he goes past pick 15ish.
 
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Hayes4PM said:
There are examples of each, I'm still VERY skeptical of Oliver at pick 4, don't know how you can back that selection over Parish and half a dozen others after him (Gresh being one!). And Jack Macrae was always rated pretty high wasn't he? And Cockatoo was rated nowhere near top 10 until he had a few good games at the end of his draft year. I listed several that supported my argument and so did you for yours. For the Dogs it worked out, GWS not so much; Pickett (4), Marchbank (6) and Ahern (7) ahead of a guy long rated as a potential pick 1 in Wright. Bont is the trophy boy/textbook example of a guy who clicked and just skyrocketed his development in his final year and then continued onwards. But you've got to be careful of overvaluing a players draft year and disregarding other who have had injuries or an interrupted draft year IMO.

Jake Lever would go top 5 now, he'd have to. He is a genuine slider at pick 14. He's solid as a rock down back as a tall defender at the age of 20. I think Burton is another that people will look back on and go "How the **** did he slide to 19?" when he missed a lot of his draft year. Jy Simpkin could be the one this year, if he goes past pick 15ish.
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You can't have a lot of doubts on Oliver after his debut year. Was brilliant found plenty of the ball. Think he had 14? CP on has debut.

As for Cockatoo I think that has been a poor selection, especially with the proven Weller available.
Taranto has done more than a great game of gf day
 
Just watching the Collingwood Footscray VFL final Collingwood 61, Footscray 181. Nearly over. Ben Long has been very impressive for Footscray.
 
Hayes4PM said:
Barrels is a hack, flog, Ainsworth-loving campaigner. Just ask Knightmare what he thinks.
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Ainsworth relatively I feel is rated more highly than he should be. Most have him inside their top 3-5 to average out the views of recruiters.

He has his fans, so I won't burn them for liking him. Very dynamic player. High leaper with an incredible vertical. Super strong hands overhead. Can push through the midfield, win it well enough and has some explosiveness.

My problem with his game is his sometimes unreliable conversion in front of goal (though improved late season) and as a sub 180cm midfielder his production is good, but not to the level that he looks like he will become a full time midfielder.

Top five for me personally is higher than I'd pick him. Top 10 is fine if needing a forward who offers what Ainsworth does.
 
JG22 said:
You can't have a lot of doubts on Oliver after his debut year. Was brilliant found plenty of the ball. Think he had 14? CP on has debut.

As for Cockatoo I think that has been a poor selection, especially with the proven Weller available.
Taranto has done more than a great game of gf day
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Luke Dunstan smashed it in his debut game and was fantastic. I wouldn't take him pick 4 though. You look for guys who can do those things with silky skills and marking etc etc.

Don't get me wrong, I think Oliver will be a good player at minimum, I just wouldn't take him at 4. Think he was more like pick 8-10 and Melbourne got swept up in his draft year form. I guess we'll have to wait and see in a few years what it works out like.
 

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Hayes4PM said:
There are examples of each, I'm still VERY skeptical of Oliver at pick 4, don't know how you can back that selection over Parish and half a dozen others after him (Gresh being one!). And Jack Macrae was always rated pretty high wasn't he? And Cockatoo was rated nowhere near top 10 until he had a few good games at the end of his draft year. I listed several that supported my argument and so did you for yours. For the Dogs it worked out, GWS not so much; Pickett (4), Marchbank (6) and Ahern (7) ahead of a guy long rated as a potential pick 1 in Wright. Bont is the trophy boy/textbook example of a guy who clicked and just skyrocketed his development in his final year and then continued onwards. But you've got to be careful of overvaluing a players draft year and disregarding other who have had injuries or an interrupted draft year IMO.

Jake Lever would go top 5 now, he'd have to. He is a genuine slider at pick 14. He's solid as a rock down back as a tall defender at the age of 20. I think Burton is another that people will look back on and go "How the **** did he slide to 19?" when he missed a lot of his draft year. Jy Simpkin could be the one this year, if he goes past pick 15ish.
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Is this the same Clayton Oliver who came 8th in the Rising Star award (5th for those in their first years), despite playing just 13 games (and averaging just 67% game time), who had seven 20+ disposal games (including 3 with goals, with a best of 26 disposals (13 contested), 2 goals and 7 clearances) and who on debut had 22 disposals (15 contested!) and game-high's for both clearances (7) and centre-clearances (5)?

He's a great size, strong, aggressive, in your face, a "contested beast", tackles plenty, isn't slow and has very good skills (had an exceptional DE of 77%, despite half of his possies being contested!) and the only ones in that draft that I would definitely take ahead of him at this point in time would be Weitering and Schache. I'd have Oliver right up there with the likes of Mills, Parish and Hopper in the next bracket. Gresh probably a touch behind them due to his size and likelihood of being closer to his ceiling, IMO (especially compared to Oliver, who's tank is still way off it and who has been in the elite system for such a short amount of time).

He's probably better than Dunstan already (already averages 2 more disposals, more clearances, more CP's and exactly the same number of tackles) and is everything we'd like Steele to be if we get him, plus more.

I saw Cockatoo rated at around 20 in a mock draft about 12 months out from his draft, so he was definitely not someone like say Oliver who came from nowhere.

From all I saw (and I followed that draft year closely) Macrae was 100% a late "bolter", after a really strong finish to his season and that was why I predicted a long way out that Bont would be his year's version of Macrae and go top 5 or 6 the following year: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2013-trade-draft-free-agency.996592/page-162#post-29197853.

With GWS it's a very different situation I reckon. They took guys like JOR, Plowman, Pickett, Marchbank and so-on early because they have so much talent and so many picks that they can roll the dice early on those who better fit their structural needs. I don't consider them true "bolters" like Macrae, Bont, or Oliver. I consider them more "reaches", who more often than not don't work out. They didn't improve out of sight late in the year like the other guys and now Taranto did, as far as I'm aware.

Both Lever and Burton were considered top 5 picks 12 or 18 months out from their respective drafts, but both missed their whole draft year through serious injury and slid as a result.
 
aussierulesrules said:
Is this the same Clayton Oliver who came 8th in the Rising Star award (5th for those in their first years), despite playing just 13 games (and averaging just 67% game time), who had seven 20+ disposal games (including 3 with goals, with a best of 26 disposals (13 contested), 2 goals and 7 clearances) and who on debut had 22 disposals (15 contested!) and game-high's for both clearances (7) and centre-clearances (5)?

He's a great size, strong, aggressive, in your face, a "contested beast", tackles plenty, isn't slow and has very good skills (had an exceptional DE of 77%, despite half of his possies being contested!) and the only ones in that draft that I would definitely take ahead of him at this point in time would be Weitering and Schache. I'd have Oliver right up there with the likes of Mills, Parish and Hopper in the next bracket. Gresh probably a touch behind them due to his size and likelihood of being closer to his ceiling, IMO (especially compared to Oliver, who's tank is still way off it and who has been in the elite system for such a short amount of time).

He's probably better than Dunstan already (already averages 2 more disposals, more clearances, more CP's and exactly the same number of tackles) and is everything we'd like Steele to be if we get him, plus more.

I saw Cockatoo rated at around 20 in a mock draft about 12 months out from his draft, so he was definitely not someone like say Oliver who came from nowhere.

From all I saw (and I followed that draft year closely) Macrae was 100% a late "bolter", after a really strong finish to his season and that was why I predicted a long way out that Bont would be his year's version of Macrae and go top 5 or 6 the following year: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2013-trade-draft-free-agency.996592/page-162#post-29197853.

With GWS it's a very different situation I reckon. They took guys like JOR, Plowman, Pickett, Marchbank and so-on early because they have so much talent and so many picks that they can roll the dice early on those who better fit their structural needs. I don't consider them true "bolters" like Macrae, Bont, or Oliver. I consider them more "reaches", who more often than not don't work out. They didn't improve out of sight late in the year like the other guys and now Taranto did, as far as I'm aware.

Both Lever and Burton were considered top 5 picks 12 or 18 months out from their respective drafts, but both missed their whole draft year through serious injury and slid as a result.
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Yes, THAT Clayton Oliver :D No doubt Oliver is going to be good, but I think there are more skilled guys. I'd have Parish, Hopper, Mills and Gresham before him. Pick 4 is a very high pick and like you said the development and ceiling of guys has to be considered as well. I think Gresh and Parish and a few of the KPD's could be much better after a few more seasons at an AFL club.

At the end of the day we're just exchanging opinions, preferences and guesses on how guys will develop. I only really started paying attention to the U18's and draftees a few years ago, but every year there's a guy where people say "geez, if he hadn't missed so much game time this year, he'd be top 5" and I always think, then ****ing take him top 5?! If clubs are allowed to see the draftee's records and medical reports then just take him where you would. Lever and Burton are going to make clubs look silly. I'm guessing Simpkin will as well if he slips outside the top 15. The last club who trusted their judgement on a kid they very highly rated but had a serious injury would be the Dogs I think with Jake Stringer. Took him at 6 despite that leg break and has definitely repaid the faith. I just think that sometimes people have short memories and put too much emphasis on the most recent history and ignore players overall history.
 
I think development plays a part in it too. The Dogs seem like their absolutely fantastic at developing their young players. It's probably why they back themselves to take the players with 'X-factor' and turn them into superstars. Drafting is only part of the equation and I personally feel development is just as, if not more, important.
 
Hayes4PM said:
Yes, THAT Clayton Oliver :D No doubt Oliver is going to be good, but I think there are more skilled guys. I'd have Parish, Hopper, Mills and Gresham before him. Pick 4 is a very high pick and like you said the development and ceiling of guys has to be considered as well. I think Gresh and Parish and a few of the KPD's could be much better after a few more seasons at an AFL club.

At the end of the day we're just exchanging opinions, preferences and guesses on how guys will develop. I only really started paying attention to the U18's and draftees a few years ago, but every year there's a guy where people say "geez, if he hadn't missed so much game time this year, he'd be top 5" and I always think, then ******* take him top 5?! If clubs are allowed to see the draftee's records and medical reports then just take him where you would. Lever and Burton are going to make clubs look silly. I'm guessing Simpkin will as well if he slips outside the top 15. The last club who trusted their judgement on a kid they very highly rated but had a serious injury would be the Dogs I think with Jake Stringer. Took him at 6 despite that leg break and has definitely repaid the faith. I just think that sometimes people have short memories and put too much emphasis on the most recent history and ignore players overall history.
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I love Oliver, he has that intangible quality that guys like Danger have, he is a bull type who just asserts himself. If he can get that draft year form at AFL level he'll be something very special.
 

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aussierulesrules said:
Jack Billings is an example of someone who had years of good performances on the board, while Bontempelli is an example of someone who, like Taranto, came home really hard late in his draft year. We went the safe option and took Billings at 3 and WB took the punt of Bont at 4 and he's now looking like someone who could make 8 AA teams, win 3 Brownlows and lift his team to a few flags. JB may end up really good, but he's got his work cut out to have anywhere near the career Bont is likely to.

Last year it was Clayton Oliver who came home really hard and got picked up at pick 4 or so and he is another who looks like being a bloody ripper once he builds a tank.

The year before Bont is was Jack Macrae who came home really hard and went at pick 6 and he then quickly became the youngest to pick up 40 disposals in an AFL game and last night he had 39 in a final, against the 3 time reigning premiers.

As for Cockatoo, he is not someone who just came from nowhere, as he'd played a lot of top notch footy in previous years, but then missed all bar the GF in his draft year with injury, so he was no different to say Jake Lever- who missed his whole draft year with an injury, but was still picked high due to how well he'd performed prior to that.

Western Bulldogs for instance are a club who apparently put a lot of stock in whether someone really improves in their draft year and their drafting of late would have to be clearly the best in the league, so I reckon they'd rate Taranto really highly this year and probably be right again.
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Must say I totally agree. Tom Swift was said to have been the most talented and well performed 16 year old the country had ever seen , and he did sweet FA. The players who come from the clouds in their draft years have a great record of success.
 
JG22 said:
You can't have a lot of doubts on Oliver after his debut year. Was brilliant found plenty of the ball. Think he had 14? CP on has debut.
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Yeah, agreed. He averaged 19 touches, 9 contested, 4 clearances, almost 5 tackles. Kicked a goal every two games. His stats were better in every way than Luke Dunstan's, for instance, but it was his first year and Dunstan's third. Oliver is going to be very very good.
 

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