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I was thinking about some of the mistakes, in my opinion, that people make when thinking about the draft selections. I thought I'd make a list and may add to it later.
1. The overvaluing of draft picks: You see this all the time during trade week. Often you will see a club pick up an experienced needs player in trade for a selection, and many people vehemently claim that the club was robbed or payed massive overs. In some cases, it's true or at least debatable. However, often the opposition to the trade comes from an overrating of draft picks. For example, the Wellingham trade. Westcoast took Wellingham for pick #18, and many claimed West Coast payed overs. The fact is Wellingham is an experienced and ready made almost 100 game premiership player, and there are definitely no guarantees that you will get anyone better at pick 18.
For instance, the 2006 top twenty contained these players, most of which aren't as good as Wellingham:
1 Bryce Gibbs
2 Scott Gumbleton
3 Lachlan Hansen
4 Leuenberger
5 Travis Boak
6 Mitchell Thorp
7 Joel Selwood
8 Ben Reid
9 David Armitage
10 Nathan Brown
11 Andrejs Everitt
12 James Frawley
13 Jack Riewoldt
14 James Sellar
15 Daniel O'Keefe
16 Mitchell Brown
17 Shaun Hampson
18 Leroy Jetta
19 Shaun Grigg
20 Tom Hislop
Sure, this was probably a particularly poor draft, but it shows that there are no guarantees when it comes to drafting, whereas trading for draft picks buys you something much closer to certainty. Moreover, in the Wellingham case, you are also paying for the years of development that has already gone into him. There is value in experience, in my opinion.
2. The overreaching fallacy: You sometimes see people claim that X team should not take player Y at their pick Q because the consensus is that player Y is not predicted to go quite that early. This may be valid in some cases. However, if a club is in desperate need of a KPD and they only have, for argument sake, pick 9 in the first round. Do you really think that they will care all that much that bigfooty rates a player like Clurey as a ~ #15? Not really, because he is the best player to fill their needs and he definitely won't last until the second round. Best available is not always the best fit for a particular club. It is not really overreaching if you are getting the player you desperately need at the only pick that you are realistically going to get him.
3. Athleticism over skill: Players stocks often shoot up during the combine. Jesse Lonergan is a great examples from this year. In Jesse's case, because he is a natural footballer, his rise in stock is arguably warranted. However, this is not always the case. For example, one of the most athletically gifted players in the AFL, Wilkinson from Gold Coast, is a fringe player in one of the youngest and worst clubs in the league. Yet he made huge waves when he went through the combine. There are plenty of examples like Wilkinson whose stocks always significantly rise during the combine period, despite lacking in other areas. Testing well at the combine does not equal deserving a high place in the draft. Sure, athleticism is important, but people tend to get carried away with it.
What are some of the fallacies you see during the lead up to the draft period?
1. The overvaluing of draft picks: You see this all the time during trade week. Often you will see a club pick up an experienced needs player in trade for a selection, and many people vehemently claim that the club was robbed or payed massive overs. In some cases, it's true or at least debatable. However, often the opposition to the trade comes from an overrating of draft picks. For example, the Wellingham trade. Westcoast took Wellingham for pick #18, and many claimed West Coast payed overs. The fact is Wellingham is an experienced and ready made almost 100 game premiership player, and there are definitely no guarantees that you will get anyone better at pick 18.
For instance, the 2006 top twenty contained these players, most of which aren't as good as Wellingham:
1 Bryce Gibbs
2 Scott Gumbleton
3 Lachlan Hansen
4 Leuenberger
5 Travis Boak
6 Mitchell Thorp
7 Joel Selwood
8 Ben Reid
9 David Armitage
10 Nathan Brown
11 Andrejs Everitt
12 James Frawley
13 Jack Riewoldt
14 James Sellar
15 Daniel O'Keefe
16 Mitchell Brown
17 Shaun Hampson
18 Leroy Jetta
19 Shaun Grigg
20 Tom Hislop
Sure, this was probably a particularly poor draft, but it shows that there are no guarantees when it comes to drafting, whereas trading for draft picks buys you something much closer to certainty. Moreover, in the Wellingham case, you are also paying for the years of development that has already gone into him. There is value in experience, in my opinion.
2. The overreaching fallacy: You sometimes see people claim that X team should not take player Y at their pick Q because the consensus is that player Y is not predicted to go quite that early. This may be valid in some cases. However, if a club is in desperate need of a KPD and they only have, for argument sake, pick 9 in the first round. Do you really think that they will care all that much that bigfooty rates a player like Clurey as a ~ #15? Not really, because he is the best player to fill their needs and he definitely won't last until the second round. Best available is not always the best fit for a particular club. It is not really overreaching if you are getting the player you desperately need at the only pick that you are realistically going to get him.
3. Athleticism over skill: Players stocks often shoot up during the combine. Jesse Lonergan is a great examples from this year. In Jesse's case, because he is a natural footballer, his rise in stock is arguably warranted. However, this is not always the case. For example, one of the most athletically gifted players in the AFL, Wilkinson from Gold Coast, is a fringe player in one of the youngest and worst clubs in the league. Yet he made huge waves when he went through the combine. There are plenty of examples like Wilkinson whose stocks always significantly rise during the combine period, despite lacking in other areas. Testing well at the combine does not equal deserving a high place in the draft. Sure, athleticism is important, but people tend to get carried away with it.
What are some of the fallacies you see during the lead up to the draft period?

