Draft pick 12

[RUNVS]

I would love for the Swans to get one of these guys

Lewis Johnston – 192cm, 87kg – North Adelaide.
Bottom aged tall forward who starred in a couple of games for SA. Playing CHF or FF he took numerous contested marks in a few of the games and kicked for goal well. Kicks mainly left foot but does have a right side. His pace is ok and he works well on his leads and does lead to the right spots on the ground, works the angles well on his leads and is not just a straight up leading player.
Needs to work on stopping his opponent running off up the ground and getting involved and he also gave away some silly free kicks at times during the champ series.
Prediction – pick 8 to 30.

Aaron Cornelius – 192cm, 84kg – Glenorchy/Tasmania
The go to man in the Tassie forward line. Played a mixture of CHF and FF and was Tasmania’s best forward. Is not overly quick but is a good contested mark and works to the right areas on the ground. He is a pretty long right foot kick and his kicking skills are pretty good. His set shots from a distance where a bit patchy at times during the champs. Does a lot of things right. The only real concern I have is at his pace if he is not taking marks and dominating in the air he could turn into an also ran at AFL level.
Another who could sneak up into the first round but will surely be picked up somewhere in the second round or third round.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=480905&highlight=profiles

 

[grimlock]

Judging from past history and the comments made by Roos post-season I would be very surprised if we drafted a KPP with our first rounder. I would be looking at another highly skilled midfielder a la Veszpremi.

 

[RUNVS]

Judging from past history and the comments made by Roos post-season I would be very surprised if we drafted a KPP with our first rounder. I would be looking at another highly skilled midfielder a la Veszpremi.

Id be annoyed as hell if the Swans go for another midfielder. Half our list are midfielders and we are seriously lacking in young KP forwards.

 

[ssfc0203]

Id be annoyed as hell if the Swans go for another midfielder. Half our list are midfielders and we are seriously lacking in young KP forwards.

I won't be, really. The whole point of the draft is to draft the best possible talent, whether it be a midfielder or a tall. Drafting talls high in the draft is as hit and miss as it is if you rookie list them - sometimes you end up with players like White and Cox rubbing shoulders, of glaringly different drafting backgrounds.

 

[RUNVS]

I won't be, really. The whole point of the draft is to draft the best possible talent, whether it be a midfielder or a tall. Drafting talls high in the draft is as hit and miss as it is if you rookie list them - sometimes you end up with players like White and Cox rubbing shoulders, of glaringly different drafting backgrounds.

Normally i would agree but we could have the most talented midfield in the competition but without a decent forward line we still wont win games. This draft instead of drafting the best player available we have to draft to fix holes in our list.

Im just worrying that by 2010 we will have 20 midfielders on our list and we wont have Hall and O'Loughlin and because Roos refused to draft a KP Forward our most damaging forward will be Henry Playfair.

Drafting KP players using our first pick can be a risk but in my opinion looking at our list it is a risk we need to take.

Here is our list as it currently is

Forward Line
1. Matthew Beckmans
2. Henry Playfai
3. Michael O'Loughlin
4. Ryan O'Keefe
5. Nick Davis
6. Barry Hall
7. Brendan Murphy


Midfield
1. Dean Terlich
2. Patrick Veszpremi
3. Daniel O'Keefe
4. Nick Smith
5. Matthew O'Dwyer
6. Brett Meredith
7. Tim Schmidt
8. Ryan Brabazon
9. Jarred Moore
10. Amon Buchanan
11. Brett Kirk
12. Kristin Thornton
13. Jude Bolton
14. Matthew Laidlaw
15. Luke Ablett
16. Kieren Jack
17. Craig Bird
18. Nic Fosdike
19. Jarrad McVeigh
20. Adam Goodes
21. Ed Barlow


Defence
1. Aaron Bruce
2. Paul Bevan
3. Lewis Roberts-Thomson
4. Martin Mattner
5. Ted Richards
6. Peter Faulks
7. Leo Barry
8. Tadhg Kennelly
9. Nick Malceski
10. Luke Brennan
11. Craig Bolton
12. Heath Grundy

Ruck
1. Darren Jolly
2. Daniel Currie
3. Jake Orreal
4. Mike Pyke

The forward line and defence should have similar numbers but as you can see our defence has 12 players while our forward line only has 7 players.

 

[Hooley McBoob]

We should put Pyke in the forward line.

 

[RW]

Gee, as much as it'd be a great story if Pyke played senior footy for us next year, I think there's a fair way to go yet before that happens!

As one who was a fan of Vogels when he arrived in 2005 and was disappointed when he got delisted, I can't help but be a little cautious on this one.

Playfair has turned out better than I expected though (apart from his goalkicking). He's generally provided a contest and leads to the right spots.

 

[Porps_is_HOT_loz]

Just like WC would NEVER get Hurn or Ebert.

Players slide.

Hmmm... I highly doubt it this year

 

[grimlock]

Gee, as much as it'd be a great story if Pyke played senior footy for us next year, I think there's a fair way to go yet before that happens!

As one who was a fan of Vogels when he arrived in 2005 and was disappointed when he got delisted, I can't help but be a little cautious on this one.

Playfair has turned out better than I expected though (apart from his goalkicking). He's generally provided a contest and leads to the right spots.

Actually I wouldn't be too surprised if Pyke does get a debut next year. Unlike recent Irish imports, he's older and mature than them, has the physical build to play in a key post and would be more familiar with the oval ball than say a Murphy or Orreal when they first joined. Plus, playing as a rugby fullback, I would expect he would be an above average mark.

 

[BarneyBent]

Normally i would agree but we could have the most talented midfield in the competition but without a decent forward line we still wont win games. This draft instead of drafting the best player available we have to draft to fix holes in our list.

Im just worrying that by 2010 we will have 20 midfielders on our list and we wont have Hall and O'Loughlin and because Roos refused to draft a KP Forward our most damaging forward will be Henry Playfair.

Drafting KP players using our first pick can be a risk but in my opinion looking at our list it is a risk we need to take.

Here is our list as it currently is

Forward Line
1. Matthew Beckmans
2. Henry Playfai
3. Michael O'Loughlin
4. Ryan O'Keefe
5. Nick Davis
6. Barry Hall
7. Brendan Murphy


Midfield
1. Dean Terlich
2. Patrick Veszpremi
3. Daniel O'Keefe
4. Nick Smith
5. Matthew O'Dwyer
6. Brett Meredith
7. Tim Schmidt
8. Ryan Brabazon
9. Jarred Moore
10. Amon Buchanan
11. Brett Kirk
12. Kristin Thornton
13. Jude Bolton
14. Matthew Laidlaw
15. Luke Ablett
16. Kieren Jack
17. Craig Bird
18. Nic Fosdike
19. Jarrad McVeigh
20. Adam Goodes
21. Ed Barlow


Defence
1. Aaron Bruce
2. Paul Bevan
3. Lewis Roberts-Thomson
4. Martin Mattner
5. Ted Richards
6. Peter Faulks
7. Leo Barry
8. Tadhg Kennelly
9. Nick Malceski
10. Luke Brennan
11. Craig Bolton
12. Heath Grundy

Ruck
1. Darren Jolly
2. Daniel Currie
3. Jake Orreal
4. Mike Pyke

The forward line and defence should have similar numbers but as you can see our defence has 12 players while our forward line only has 7 players.

Heath Grundy, Ed Barlow, Jarred Moore and Patrick Veszpremi can all be considered forwards or potential forwards, if you ask me. Moore and Vespa might wind up in the midfield, but at the moment they are playing as forwards, and doing well at it. Grundy played forward against the Lions, and showed a lot of promise, and I think Barlow would be a perfect agile tall forward.

And, as was pointed out, Pyke may wind up playing forward as well.

But yeah, we still seem to lack some quality KP players. I'd rather trade for a 20-22 year old one than draft one though. Leave the gambling to other clubs, we'll just take the ones we've seen perform at the top level!

 

[ssfc0203]

Hmmm... I highly doubt it this year

Happens every year.. How will this year be an exception?

 

[ssfc0203]

Ooh, and RUNVS. I'd rather have a super talented midfield feeding to a crappy forward line rather than have a talented forward line being fed by a crap midfield.

 

[RUNVS]

Ooh, and RUNVS. I'd rather have a super talented midfield feeding to a crappy forward line rather than have a talented forward line being fed by a crap midfield.

Maybe so but those arent the Swans options. Currently our options are

a. Talented midfield and horrible forward line
b. Reasonably midfield and reasonable forward line.

I personally would prefer option b. Our midfield isnt going to collapse any time soon as most of our midfielders are quite young but in afew years time if we arent careful our forward line will be almost nonexistent.

 

[grimlock]

I think if we had a pick in the Top 8, for example's sake, the story might be different. The top line KPPs are definitely However, we've only had picks 11+ onwards during Roos's tenure.

Perhaps another way of looking at it is seeing the players we could have picked instead of Willoughby, DOK or Veszpremi (the 3 first rounders we've actually kept)

2003
#16 Willoughby
#17 Billy Morrison (COL) - delisted. 0 games
#18 Llane Spaanderman (BRL/WCE) - delisted. Playing in the WAFL. 3 games
#24 Chad Jones (KAN/WCE) - just delisted. 13 games.
#27 Adam Campbell (FRE) - requesting trade from Freo. 10 games.

No obvious misses there.

2006
#15 O'Keefe
#16 Mitch Brown (WCE) - 5 games. Crippled by injury. I know Jeffers was keen on him instead of DOK. Jury still out.
#17 Shaun Hampson (CAR) - 12 games. Struggling to oust pseudo-ruckman Cam Cloke.
#24 Brent Renouf (HAW) - 7 games. Finally ousted Simon Taylor from the number 2 ruck spot. Looks to have a solid future.

Renouf looks to have talent but was never considered in the top 15 of the so-called superdraft. You only have to look at the KPPs before DOK - Scott Gumbleton, Lachlan Hansen, Matthew Leuenberger, Mitch Thorp, Nathan J.Brown, Andrejs Everitt, James Frawley, Jack Riewoldt and James Sellar. Hansen, Leuenberger, Brown, Riewoldt are the only constants in their respective sides. Very hit and miss.

2007
Too early to tell but some of the names drafted after Vesz include Robbie Tarrant, Harry Taylor, Matthew Lobbe, Alex Rance, Tony Notte. Taylor is a mature age selection who was well known to Geelong after playing with their VFL team. Vesz has played more games than any of the rest and while I'm definitely biased, I would have him any day of the week over the others.

Even in the intervening years, looking at the names drafted around the mid teens to mid 20s - Adam Pattison, Cameron Wood, Ryan Willits, Max Bailey, Adam Hartlett, Cleve Hughes, Wayde Mills - hardly has me cursing the club for not drafting them.

 

[scottwade]

2006
#15 O'Keefe
#16 Mitch Brown (WCE) - 5 games. Crippled by injury. I know Jeffers was keen on him instead of DOK. Jury still out.

That is the glaring error.
It was then and it is now.

DOL is an outside midfielder, of which there is a plethora each draft.
Mitch Brown is a courageous talented KPP, who can play forward or back.

That particular year I watched a number of TAC/Championship games (I've seen virtually none since, so I can't comment on this year's players) and it remains amazing to me that we took DOK over Brown.

Depending on trade week I also wouldn't be holding my breath for a KPP with our first pick this year. In the 5 drafts under Roos our highest tall picks have been Ericksen (#47) & Currie (#49).

The talls that have come in (Jolly, Chambers, Richards, Everitt, Playfair) have all been traded for.

It appears a philosophy of Roos that he will not select talls in the 1st 2 rounds of the draft.

As a matter of interset this is what Roos had to say after last year's draft;

http://www.realfooty.com.au/news/ne...ay-knight-fever/2007/11/25/1195975871152.html

There had been suggestions the Swans should have gone for key position players to prepare for the retirements in coming years of Michael O'Loughlin, Leo Barry, Peter Everitt and Barry Hall, but Roos said those matters had been addressed during the past year with the recruitment of Jake Orreal, Irishman Brendan Murphy, Peter Faulks, Luke Brennan, former Geelong tall Henry Playfair, and the emergence of 196-centimetre Ed Barlow.

As I said at the time
To put those guys in perspective;
Barlow has played 4 AFL games
Orreal & Murphy have played a total of 3 Aussie Rules games between them
Faulks, to date, has shown no likelihood of stepping up
Playfair spent the season in Geelong's reserves, playing 1 senior game in 2007
Brennan stands 186cm and plays no taller.

Lets remember who Roos sees those guys replacing; Barry, Everitt, Hall & O'Loughlin.

10 All-Australian guernseys, 4 B&Fs, 8 leading goalkicking awards, 983 AFL games.

And they are going to be replaced by guys like Orreal & Murphy who in their lifetime have played 3 games of Aussie Rules football.

BIZARRE.

Of course next year we can add a Canadian rugby player to our emerging talls.

 

[Dudley]

I would love for the Swans to get one of these guys

Lewis Johnston – 192cm, 87kg – North Adelaide.
Bottom aged tall forward who starred in a couple of games for SA. Playing CHF or FF he took numerous contested marks in a few of the games and kicked for goal well. Kicks mainly left foot but does have a right side. His pace is ok and he works well on his leads and does lead to the right spots on the ground, works the angles well on his leads and is not just a straight up leading player.
Needs to work on stopping his opponent running off up the ground and getting involved and he also gave away some silly free kicks at times during the champ series.
Prediction – pick 8 to 30.

Aaron Cornelius – 192cm, 84kg – Glenorchy/Tasmania
The go to man in the Tassie forward line. Played a mixture of CHF and FF and was Tasmania’s best forward. Is not overly quick but is a good contested mark and works to the right areas on the ground. He is a pretty long right foot kick and his kicking skills are pretty good. His set shots from a distance where a bit patchy at times during the champs. Does a lot of things right. The only real concern I have is at his pace if he is not taking marks and dominating in the air he could turn into an also ran at AFL level.
Another who could sneak up into the first round but will surely be picked up somewhere in the second round or third round.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=480905&highlight=profiles

I would be annoyed if we went for another mid to undersized KPP.

Take the best available

 

[RUNVS]

As I said at the time
To put those guys in perspective;
Barlow has played 4 AFL games
Orreal & Murphy have played a total of 3 Aussie Rules games between them
Faulks, to date, has shown no likelihood of stepping up
Playfair spent the season in Geelong's reserves, playing 1 senior game in 2007
Brennan stands 186cm and plays no taller.

Lets remember who Roos sees those guys replacing; Barry, Everitt, Hall & O'Loughlin.

10 All-Australian guernseys, 4 B&Fs, 8 leading goalkicking awards, 983 AFL games.

And they are going to be replaced by guys like Orreal & Murphy who in their lifetime have played 3 games of Aussie Rules football.

BIZARRE.

Of course next year we can add a Canadian rugby player to our emerging talls.

Its amazing isnt it. Paul Roos just flat out refuses to draft talls with our early picks. Unfortunately by the 3rd or 4th rounds (when we usually start drafting tall) all the good potential KP players are gone.

Paul Roos dosent seem to realise that teams are not going to trade their star tall players to us which means that the best we as a club can hope for is fringe tall players from other clubs and hope when they get traded to us we can improve them.

If we want really good talls we are going to have to draft them ourselves as we cannot rely trading with other teams in order to fill such important roles like CHF, FF and FB.

 

[RUNVS]

I would be annoyed if we went for another mid to undersized KPP.

Take the best available

192cm is not undersized (remember Tony Lockett was only 191cm). Also since both Lewis Johnston and Aaron Cornelius are young its reasonable to assume that they will grow another few centimetres.

 

[ssfc0203]

192cm is not undersized (remember Tony Lockett was only 191cm). Also since both Lewis Johnston and Aaron Cornelius are young its reasonable to assume that they will grow another few centimetres.

Yep, but how many Tony Lockett's have we seen? Its hit and miss whether you rookie them or draft them, so its much better to go for the best possible talent rather than taking a risk and having it blow up in your face. The downside associated with a rookie not living up to expectations is far less than a top shelf draft pick not living up to it, sadly.

Top picks are to recruit best talent, not your needs. You can have more freedom for selection in rookie drafting as talls take the same time to mature whether they're rookied or drafted.

 

[Dudley]

192cm is not undersized (remember Tony Lockett was only 191cm). Also since both Lewis Johnston and Aaron Cornelius are young its reasonable to assume that they will grow another few centimetres.

Yes it is, Lockett in todays footy is a dinosaur, as great as he was in his time.

There are very very few current KPP's at or under 192cm, Pav is the obvious standout.

When you recruit, you play the numbers, IMHO you dont get a Pav at pick 12.

You are right that they may grow though, but again, you play the numbers and take the best available player, not he best available KPP after pick 12.

 

[grimlock]

Yes the point remains that top KPP are usually snapped up early and the remaining ones aren't worth the pick 11-19 that we usually end up with

 

[RUNVS]

you play the numbers and take the best available player, not he best available KPP after pick 12.

Alright lets look at Paul Roos's draft choices since he became coach back in 2002 (i'll lokk at the first 2 picks for each year).

2002
Pick 5 - Jarrad McVeigh
Pick 34 - Sean Dempster

2003
Pick 16 - Josh Willoughby
Pick 29 - Tim Schmidt

2004
Pick 31 - Jarred Moore
Pick 47 - David Spriggs

2005
Pick 51 - Matthew Laidlaw
Pick 54 - Kristin Thornton

2006
Pick 15 - Daniel O'Keefe
Pick 49 - Daniel Currie

2007
Pick 11 - Patrick Veszpremi
Pick 26 - Brett Meredith

So all up there those 12 players have played a total of about 150 games (and over 100 of those are Jarrad McVeigh's). Also appart from Currie every single one of those guys are midfielders.

Roo supposedly picks the best available players with his first 2 picks but i look at that list and it doesnt inspire alot of confidence in Paul Roos's drafting ability. Sure there are some good players in that list but no great players and there are also alot of players on that list who have never and probably will never play a game.

I personally think that Paul Roos idea of drafting the best possible talent is flawd as i think most other teams have seen alot more success out of their first 2 draft selections over the past 6 years than we have.

 

[Dudley]

Alright lets look at Paul Roos's draft choices since he became coach back in 2002 (i'll lokk at the first 2 picks for each year).

2002
Pick 5 - Jarrad McVeigh
Pick 34 - Sean Dempster

2003
Pick 16 - Josh Willoughby
Pick 29 - Tim Schmidt

2004
Pick 31 - Jarred Moore
Pick 47 - David Spriggs

2005
Pick 51 - Matthew Laidlaw
Pick 54 - Kristin Thornton

2006
Pick 15 - Daniel O'Keefe
Pick 49 - Daniel Currie

2007
Pick 11 - Patrick Veszpremi
Pick 26 - Brett Meredith

So all up there those 12 players have played a total of about 150 games (and over 100 of those are Jarrad McVeigh's). Also appart from Currie every single one of those guys are midfielders.

Roo supposedly picks the best available players with his first 2 picks but i look at that list and it doesnt inspire alot of confidence in Paul Roos's drafting ability. Sure there are some good players in that list but no great players and there are also alot of players on that list who have never and probably will never play a game.

I personally think that Paul Roos idea of drafting the best possible talent is flawd as i think most other teams have seen alot more success out of their first 2 draft selections over the past 6 years than we have.

Yep he has had one top 10 pick and 2 top 15's

Seriously mate, is that is a serious comment ?

 

[TheMase]

Roo supposedly picks the best available players with his first 2 picks but i look at that list and it doesnt inspire alot of confidence in Paul Roos's drafting ability. Sure there are some good players in that list but no great players and there are also alot of players on that list who have never and probably will never play a game.

I personally think that Paul Roos idea of drafting the best possible talent is flawd as i think most other teams have seen alot more success out of their first 2 draft selections over the past 6 years than we have.

Is it really "Paul Roos" or the recruiting staff? With Roos coaching the teams throughout the season, I am not sure he'd get the chance to see many under 18 matches first hand.

I am sure he plays a part, and is certainly part of the decision making, but he'd be relying heavily on advice given to him by others.

 

[Lakeside Legacy]

I personally think that Paul Roos idea of drafting the best possible talent is flawd as i think most other teams have seen alot more success out of their first 2 draft selections over the past 6 years than we have.[/quote]

I think in 2005 Roos traded our first draft pick 15 ??? to Melbourne for Jolly.

IMO, I would consider Jolly to have been fair pick up in exchange for an untried / unknown potential pick (15) ??

Schneider & Dempster to St Kilda last season 2007, although painful, allowed us to pick up Mattner from Adelaide ???

As some of our recent draft picks have indicated early picks don't always end up as being the BE ALL & END ALL.

Although I consider Vespremi to have all the makings of being something special, Would Cyril Rioli have been a better pick up than Ves and apparently was still available when we selected Vespremi despite Hawthorn's best efforts to have him stuck away and boarding / schooling at Scotch College.