Competitions Draft Prediction - 23 & 28

[Obeanie1]

There has been quite some talk about Jordan Murdoch and West Coast, not just from Emma Quayle. Definitely some truth to the rumours.

Left foot, 190cm, agile running HFFer who tackles well.

I wouldn't mind another one of those I suppose, the last right footer we got is comng along quite nicely.

With the introduction of the sub and now resting / using rucks forward much more I wondered if this would mean the evolution in playing more 190cm running forwards rather than having two or more bigger lumbering KP forwards who are 192cm> 200cm.

I can see a set up with one big KP forward over 190cm, a resting 200+cm ruck plus two 190cm rotating forwards like Darling and Murdock working quite well. These more agile leading forwards can give you both marking and running power up forward and down to the half back line. Means you can add another running mid onto the bench.

 

[Obeanie1]

I too think Manson is perhaps being a bit over-hyped i would much rather Lockyer at 23.

OK changed my mind again, agree, Manson just has too many question marks over his commitment and ability to stick it out in a big city environment.

Better off to let an interstate team waste a pick on him and in a couple of years grab him in the rookie draft. If he's available when our rookie pick comes up sure grab him. If he wanted to go to the Eagles he should have stayed home and not played NTFL, his recent exposure now has him as an over priced flight risk.

Lockyer + Newman

Murdock or Talia would be good pickups as well.

Still dreaming Devon Smith might slide

 

[beatlesmith]

Talia's attributes of strength defensively and aerially, along with his erratic skills remind me of Mackenzie.
Would prefer someone like Schade or Lockyer who are more clean and creative with the ball in hand, as having two offensive liabilities down back is not ideal.

One of Crozier, Newman, Murdoch, Smith or Markworth on a HFF/FP would be nice, and I wouldn't be totally against picking up Manson considering the club would know about him and his situation much more than us.

 

[Icanwalk]

Talia's attributes of strength defensively and aerially, along with his erratic skills remind me of Mackenzie.
Would prefer someone like Schade or Lockyer who are more clean and creative with the ball in hand, as having two offensive liabilities down back is not ideal.

One of Crozier, Newman, Murdoch, Smith or Markworth on a HFF/FP would be nice, and I wouldn't be totally against picking up Manson considering the club would know about him and his situation much more than us.

Do see the Mckenzie comparison with regards to Talia, but only with their similarity in strength. Mackenzie is a far far better kick than Talia whose field kicking is in the Kurt Tippet throw it on a spasmodic leg mould. Mackenzie is actually a nice kick when balanced and in space. It is when under pressure that his skills and decision making let him down.

Mackenzie is also much taller than Talia who is undersized. IIRC he's only 192 cm. If we're interested in an undersized tall, Lockyer is surely the best option. His skills and athleticism put Talia to shame. He's also far more versatile and could have a run through the midfield.

But Schade is certainly the best of the lot. At 196 and 80kg, he still has some growth in him and has beautiful skills on his left. Provides as much run from defense as Talia if not more. But perhaps not as good an overhead mark as Talia but do think that will come with size. As for such a light KPD, he is already strong in a 1-1 and with an extra 10 kg he'll be fully capable of playing on all sized forwards. Talia at his height would be more of a third tall wouldn't he?

So long as we don't get Frost, I'll be happy with any of the highly rated KPD.

What does everyone think of McIness? Local lad but haven't seen much of him tbh.

 

[WCE_phil]

Do see the Mckenzie comparison with regards to Talia, but only with their similarity in strength. Mackenzie is a far far better kick than Talia whose field kicking is in the Kurt Tippet throw it on a spasmodic leg mould. Mackenzie is actually a nice kick when balanced and in space. It is when under pressure that his skills and decision making let him down.

Mackenzie is also much taller than Talia who is undersized. IIRC he's only 192 cm. If we're interested in an undersized tall, Lockyer is surely the best option. His skills and athleticism put Talia to shame. He's also far more versatile and could have a run through the midfield.

But Schade is certainly the best of the lot. At 196 and 80kg, he still has some growth in him and has beautiful skills on his left. Provides as much run from defense as Talia if not more. But perhaps not as good an overhead mark as Talia but do think that will come with size. As for such a light KPD, he is already strong in a 1-1 and with an extra 10 kg he'll be fully capable of playing on all sized forwards. Talia at his height would be more of a third tall wouldn't he?

So long as we don't get Frost, I'll be happy with any of the highly rated KPD.

What does everyone think of McIness? Local lad but haven't seen much of him tbh.

I like talia's physicality and his marking but im in the same boat as you in that i would prefer lockyer due to his much superior skills and athleticism. I do really like schade but i have him going to one of a few clubs before our first pick and the great positive about him is that even though he is light now he will be able to play third tall as soon as his second or third season and progress to a key post later on in his career.

I still think mcinnes is the best of the key defenders talent wise but has had some injury concerns. In saying that if we do go for a tall back and he is available at 23 he would be my choice.

Overall though if available i'd still like markworth as our first pick and newman as our second. In saying that though if the club considers markworth and lockyer almost on a par we know which direction the club will go.

 

[Masto]

Talia is 194cm, which is the perfect KP height. I see him more like a young Glass than a Mackenzie. I've seen Mackenzie fluff simple kicks even under no pressure. Talia is not the best kick but neither is Glass, but he is composed and offers good rebound. He has the best KP defensive skillset in the draft. He is not an offensive liability. In fact his disposal count was above Schade (avg 16.2 to 14) so you could make the argument he is better both as a defender and as an attacker.

 

[Masto]

I like talia's physicality and his marking but im in the same boat as you in that i would prefer lockyer due to his much superior skills and athleticism.

There seems to be a general understanding on BF that Lockyer has good skills. I think that is incorrect. Yes he is generally a good kick and tested well for that but overall I would say he is a scrappy player, which is why I compared him to Beau Waters in a previous post. He is not a one touch player and when you watch him play I certainly do not think of him as a silky player to watch.

 

[WCE_phil]

There seems to be a general understanding on BF that Lockyer has good skills. I think that is incorrect. Yes he is generally a good kick and tested well for that but overall I would say he is a scrappy player, which is why I compared him to Beau Waters in a previous post. He is not a one touch player and when you watch him play I certainly do not think of him as a silky player to watch.

This is just me but i certainly dont consider lockyer to have amazing skills or decision making but his skills in comparison to talias are well.... exceptional. In fact i would say mcginnity would have better kicking than talia.

 

[Masto]

This is just me but i certainly dont consider lockyer to have amazing skills or decision making but his skills in comparison to talias are well.... exceptional. In fact i would say mcginnity would have better kicking than talia.

His kicking was inconsistent at the champs, not terrible. From all reports his kicking became more consistent towards the end of the year. But you know, a player is so much more than just kicking skills. Brent Staker was probably a better kick than Darren Glass but no one in their right mind would say he is a better player.

 

[INSANE]

Talia is 194cm, which is the perfect KP height. I see him more like a young Glass than a Mackenzie. I've seen Mackenzie fluff simple kicks even under no pressure. Talia is not the best kick but neither is Glass, but he is composed and offers good rebound. He has the best KP defensive skillset in the draft. He is not an offensive liability. In fact his disposal count was above Schade (avg 16.2 to 14) so you could make the argument he is better both as a defender and as an attacker.

Even if he was 192cm, that wouldn't matter. Three of the best FBs of the last 8 years or so are Glass, Scarlett and Rutten....Ben Reid is a very tall KD and whilst admittedly playing below peak fitness was getting a caning by Tom Hawkins in the GF....Chris Tarrant, a much smaller KD (and also playing injured) handled big Tom far better because he played smart and didn't try and wrestle.

Smarts/Talent/Competitive>>>>an extra 2cms of height. Sure, if you're a gun defender and still athletic you'd take the extra height...But everyone has a flaw(s). As for Talias kicking, he'll improve it and all he needs to do is play within himself/safe (exactly like Glass and Emac), belt it long or handball to a guy running past.

 

[jesterwester]

I really can see us taking Lockyer or talia with out first pick, mostly due to what has been said previously, those two, in terms of attack on the ball seem the most logical. The disposal level of both does concern me slightly, but, so was Mackenzie's not too long ago, he has vastly improved in that area, you can teach better disposal levels, but hunting the ball & aggression isn't.
Reading the phantoms as I do with interest, people have noted we have no real holes in our list. That really bothers me, we do have some holes to be filled, not taking high risk/high reward players. I would love to see for this draft.
23: talia
28: Newman.

 

[Avalor]

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/a/-/afl/11826404/son-of-eagle-was-bred-for-success/

Read this and you couldn't go past Lockyer - what a bloodline!

 

[DivideandMultiply]

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/sport/a/-/afl/11826404/son-of-eagle-was-bred-for-success/

Read this and you couldn't go past Lockyer - what a bloodline!

Errrrrrrrr I take no notice of thewest etc all year, but get completely suckered by these draftee puff pieces.

If only we had pick 33. Lockyer, Manson and Newman?

BTW much prefer Lockyer to Talia.

I agree with Swannies though, each year posters are understandably too WA centric.

Good chance one or both picks could be an interstate kid.

 

[Masto]

BTW much prefer Lockyer to Talia.

It depends under what circumstances. As a fullback? Absolutely not. As anything else? Yes, probably.

 

[DivideandMultiply]

It depends under what circumstances. As a fullback? Absolutely not. As anything else? Yes, probably.

I just do not rate Talia's skills.

I think Lockyer could be a more than adequate KPB (positions even down back are hardly fixed). He is tall enough, but also has great pace, vertical leap and arm span to make up for any perceived deficiency.

There are only so many suspect kicks you can have in your backline if you want to be genuine top 4 material, Waters and McKenzie really bring us to this limit.

And I disagree on the Talia/Glass comparison. He just does not have Glass's smarts or "safe" decision making ability.

Schade is a taller KPD whom I would consider ahead of Lockyer, but I doubt he will be available.

 

[Masto]

I think Talia looks the most natural defender and the most composed out of the three. He looks the most assured and organises the defence. He is the best body on body and the best overhead. He is certainly the closest to Glass out of the three.

Lockyer is not that good body on body or spoiling against bigger players. I think he would be exposed at AFL level as a pure fullback. In the u18 champs, Jordan Murdoch made him look 2nd rate overhead and he is only 189cm. Despite his height, he is more of a third tall and I would really worry about him going up against bigger forwards like Dawes and Hawkins.

Schade is a project who is NQR for AFL. He might work out, after a few years in the gym, but you have to remember its easier to take a risk posting on a message board than a recruiter whose job is on the line.

 

[beatlesmith]

I think Talia looks the most natural defender and the most composed out of the three. He looks the most assured and organises the defence. He is the best body on body and the best overhead. He is certainly the closest to Glass out of the three.

Lockyer is not that good body on body or spoiling against bigger players. I think he would be exposed at AFL level as a pure fullback. In the u18 champs, Jordan Murdoch made him look 2nd rate overhead and he is only 189cm. Despite his height, he is more of a third tall and I would really worry about him going up against bigger forwards like Dawes and Hawkins.

Schade is a project who is NQR for AFL. He might work out, after a few years in the gym, but you have to remember its easier to take a risk posting on a message board than a recruiter whose job is on the line.

Are we looking for a FB? I for one think Mackenzie will take over at FB.
I think we're looking for a more creative, attacking type to play up the ground at CHB.
I reckon it would be easier to bulk a player like Lockyer up and train him how to properly deal with big forwards than it would be to teach Talia how to kick well.
As others have said; between Mackenzie, Waters, Smith and Talia, how many erratic disposers do you want in the one backline? How many players can you afford to have in the one backline that need to hand it off to a close option on a regular basis? It's not sustainable.
I also don't think we necessarily need to get a player who is ready to play from day one. We have Mitch Brown who could very well end up being the defender we need and is at worst a capable option. Glass isn't necessarily going to retire at the end of next year regardless.

 

[INSANE]

I think Talia looks the most natural defender and the most composed out of the three. He looks the most assured and organises the defence. He is the best body on body and the best overhead. He is certainly the closest to Glass out of the three.

Lockyer is not that good body on body or spoiling against bigger players. I think he would be exposed at AFL level as a pure fullback. In the u18 champs, Jordan Murdoch made him look 2nd rate overhead and he is only 189cm. Despite his height, he is more of a third tall and I would really worry about him going up against bigger forwards like Dawes and Hawkins.

Schade is a project who is NQR for AFL. He might work out, after a few years in the gym, but you have to remember its easier to take a risk posting on a message board than a recruiter whose job is on the line.

I agree. He doesn't play like a big bloke imo, and though he tested very, very well at DC I didn't watch him at the Champs and think he was a special athlete. His physical attributes on paper aren't noticeable on the ground imo. Seems like a solid type in the JoJo mould.

I reckon a lot of us have been seduced by his name and seeing his DC results. I would not be surprised to see him picked beyond 40.

 

[Icanwalk]

Talia is 194cm, which is the perfect KP height. I see him more like a young Glass than a Mackenzie.

192 cm like I originally posted, compliments of AFL website 'hot prospects' this morning. Nice way to make up stats to aid your argument.

So this kid is undersized, albeit not by much. This isn't so significant when you have the defensive ablities of a Glass/ Reid who read the high ball better than anyone in the game. Talia however, does not fit this category. You'd be kidding yourself if you thought otherwise. He'd be going top 5 in the draft if his defensive skills were on par with the elite, not around 25/35 in a compromised draft stretched for talls.

We can't draft a player based on the fact he resembles an established player more than his competitors. If this were a dominant train of thought, we'd have drafted Polec instead of Gaff for his resembles to Hill.

I've seen Mackenzie fluff simple kicks even under no pressure. Talia is not the best kick but neither is Glass, but he is composed and offers good rebound.

As another poster previously mentioned, we can't afford to have any more inadequate kicks form defense. Particularly in the modern era where precise kicking from defense, through a forward press goes a long way to building a premiership team. Waters and Mackenzie are bad enough, Talia makes them look like elite kicks in comparison. He is a seriously bad, bad kick. Far worse than anyone on our list. We can't have 4 players hand-passing to Hurn.

In the AFL he won't be offering any sort of rebound with that skill set and average pace.

As Beatlesmith posted, a young FB is not a priority. MacKenzie has been groomed to replace Glass as a true defender and I'd have confidence in him to play this role from round 1. Also have faith that Brown will take CHB in due time. I believe we're searching for a defensive third tall capable of playing CHB if required, who's capable of pushing forward and providing run from defense. Schade fits the bill perfectly, as does Lockyer to a lesser extent.

He is not an offensive liability. In fact his disposal count was above Schade (avg 16.2 to 14) so you could make the argument he is better both as a defender and as an attacker.

Yeah, you could make that argument, but you'd be making it rather poorly. Assuming you haven't pulled that statistic out of your arse (cbf checking) it would hardly aid your argument. The fact that Talia averages 2 more disposals than Shade does not mean he offers more rebound. If that were true, you'd have no hesitation in saying Waters provides twice as much attack from defense as Hurn, considering he regularly pips the 30 disposal mark. I'd rather the ball in Schade's hands 14 times to Talia's 16.2.

Although it is true that Talia currently surpasses Schade/Lockyer in the 1-1's and in marshalling the defense, his deficiencies outweigh his positives by a looong way. We must also remeber that Talia is nearly fully developed for someone of his size, so would be close to peaking in his contested marking capabilities. Schade at 196cm/80kg and still growing by all reports would make significant improvement in this area after a few years in the gym. With our quality list, we don't need these kids to come and perform straight away. We can afford to wait for these kids who are NQR as you put it to develop into the players we need them to be in 5 years not next year.

If we're drafting for next year, Talia. Otherwise Scahde, whose superior skills, athletisism and versatility put him above.

 

[Coast Guard]

192 cm like I originally posted, compliments of AFL website 'hot prospects' this morning. Nice way to make up stats to aid your argument.

Media (even the afl site) routinely gets these sort of stats wrong - often using older measurements or just quoting them from other sources - not checking the latest ones. Not saying your wrong. Not saying Masto's wrong. Just saying - if Mastos quoting from another article that doesnt exactly add up to making up figures.

For the record - ive also read Talia being quoted as 193cm.

Go figure.

 

[Icanwalk]

Media (even the afl site) routinely gets these sort of stats wrong - often using older measurements or just quoting them from other sources - not checking the latest ones. Not saying your wrong. Not saying Masto's wrong. Just saying - if Mastos quoting from another article that doesnt exactly add up to making up figures.

For the record - ive also read Talia being quoted as 193cm.

Go figure.

That's more than fair enough. Never realize how much of a prick you sound until you re-read in reflection

That's why it's always a good idea to provide sources in heated arguments. I'd have if I could be bothered finding out how

Either way a cm here or there is a pretty pathetic reason to insult other people over.

 

[WCE_phil]

Just one last thing on talia. From what i have seen he is a poor mans version of his older brother and while that may make him more dedicated to the cause as he's always had to be the battler it's not like his brother has jumped straight in and been a star. (albeit limited opportunities as he was only drafted a couple of years back) If you compare the draft last year to this year last year we took two guys who had no real deficiencies in their game and looked very likely to have solid - great afl careers at picks 26 and 29. This year every player likely to be drafted after pick 15 has a major deficiency in their game that makes it questionable as to whether they will make it at afl level. If we get 150 games out of this draft i would consider it a success.

 

[Masto]

Last year he was 191cm. This year he is 194cm, at least according to the AFL website.

http://www.afl.com.au/News/NEWSARTICLE/tabid/208/Default.aspx?newsId=120643

 

[Prem87]

His highlights are cringeworthy - coordination, kicking and general skills..big deficiencies. Can see him going in the 40's.

 

[The Falcon Strike]

His highlights are cringeworthy - coordination, kicking and general skills..big deficiencies. Can see him going in the 40's.

Very ugly kicking style that's for sure