Rumour Draft Rumours 2025

[ctwenty1]

I'm surprised this seems to be the strong consensus, I don't think we finish better next year than this year, we had a pretty good draw this year with not many of our away games against the good teams.

IMO Carlton would jump at this deal, but I think you are right that there needs to be a bit more negotiation, say all the rest of Adelaide's points this year (currently pick 48 and 55 - both which will come in for more points than current position) - and maybe a f3 or f4 back to Adelaide. Would that be enough?

This deal can't be the answer to all your points needs, Carlton would have to still push futures around to get this done.

BTW this is reported in the paper today, not my made up rumour!

I know pick valuing using points isnt quite perfect but 9 and 11 (2560 points) is equivalent to (6 and 16). So that is to say next year you would need to finish 13th.

If crows finish the same as this year (ie pick 16) then that is 712pt diffirence or equivalent to pick 22

Obviously there is more than just point matching when trading picks but that gap is just too large so something else will need to be added.

Maybe throw in your 2027 first as well - we seem to be collecting those too

 

[GWS Goose]

Adelaide will offer pick 16 and F1 for Carlton pick 9 and 11 if Schubert is still available on the night, particularly if a bid comes in before pick 9.

Carlton get their man Dean and instead of sliding to pick 20+ with pick 11, they get valuable points for 2026 to guarantee Cody Walker should he go top 2.

And get to death ride crom.

cant imagine Carlton making that deal.

 

[LoBu]

I know pick valuing using points isnt quite perfect but 9 and 11 (2560 points) is equivalent to (6 and 16). So that is to say next year you would need to finish 13th.

If crows finish the same as this year (ie pick 16) then that is 712pt diffirence or equivalent to pick 22

Obviously there is more than just point matching when trading picks but that gap is just too large so something else will need to be added.

Maybe throw in your 2027 first as well - we seem to be collecting those too

I understand that next year's draft is better than this years so that needs to be taken into account, i.e. nobody else is offering a future first to get into this year (yet).

You also need to account for the fact that pick 9 will be pick 13, so is pick 13 this year better than a pick 14-18 next year? My feeling is no - based on the commentary. I think Adelaide's likely range is 6-7th at the end of next year, which is a pick of 13-14.

I could be way off, perhaps the F2 is needed to, but I feel it's in Carlton's interest to do whatever they can to get Dean and a future first with their draft hand.

 

[ctwenty1]

I understand that next year's draft is better than this years so that needs to be taken into account, i.e. nobody else is offering a future first to get into this year (yet).

You also need to account for the fact that pick 9 will be pick 13, so is pick 13 this year better than a pick 14-18 next year? My feeling is no - based on the commentary. I think Adelaide's likely range is 6-7th at the end of next year, which is a pick of 13-14.

I could be way off, perhaps the F2 is needed to, but I feel it's in Carlton's interest to do whatever they can to get Dean and a future first with their draft hand.

Would be nice to know what next's years rules will be for bid matching, but thats another issue...

I have no idea what Carlton want to do - if we are happy with Dean as our first pick then absolutely a trade with yoursleves could make sense and maybe the addition of f2 with 16 and f1 would be enough, but probably also need more points for this year too (Ison matching). Depends also on how keen the crows are on the players available at 9 and 11 (or whatever the picks become) so may pay (slight) overs.

From my perspective, would be disspointed if all Carlotn did was take 9 and 11 to the draft with no pick trading. I think we can do more with 9 and 11 than just match a Dean bid, use the subsequent late first to pick another player, and then match any bid on Ison. We either trade to get up the draft order, or trade down for points to get another 2026 f1.

 

[LoBu]

Would be nice to know what next's years rules will be for bid matching, but thats another issue...

I have no idea what Carlton want to do - if we are happy with Dean as our first pick then absolutely a trade with yoursleves could make sense and maybe the addition of f2 with 16 and f1 would be enough, but probably also need more points for this year too (Ison matching). Depends also on how keen the crows are on the players available at 9 and 11 (or whatever the picks become) so may pay (slight) overs.

From my perspective, would be disspointed if all Carlotn did was take 9 and 11 to the draft with no pick trading. I think we can do more with 9 and 11 than just match a Dean bid, use the subsequent late first to pick another player, and then match any bid on Ison. We either trade to get up the draft order, or trade down for points to get another 2026 f1.

Agreed, Adelaide may not be the best option, but it would be a first if Carlton use pick 9 to match a bid - when every other club in history has moved the equivilant pick to the future and used junk picks to pick up their man.

Carlton in a unusual position though, with not many options in the 20s to pick up, a new points scale, uncertainty as to next year's rules, a second first rounder thanks to the FA rules, all combined with a weak draft caued by an anomalous lack of high end Vic metro talent.

 

[Stamos]

BTW this is reported in the paper today, not my made up rumour!

Yeah, surely the Hun isn't telling the full story.
We would need more points back this year, or another future pick that we could trade back in to match for Ison.

 

[LoBu]

Yeah, surely the Hun isn't telling the full story.
We would need more points back this year, or another future pick that we could trade back in to match for Ison.

yeah, I think Carlton would want a bit extra to make it happen.

I'm sure you guys are looking a lots of options to maximise things, either get up ahead of a bid or get a future pick.

 

[Stamos]

Agreed, Adelaide may not be the best option, but it would be a first if Carlton use pick 9 to match a bid - when every other club in history has moved the equivilant pick to the future and used junk picks to pick up their man.

Carlton in a unusual position though, with not many options in the 20s to pick up, a new points scale, uncertainty as to next year's rules, a second first rounder thanks to the FA rules, all combined with a weak draft caued by an anomalous lack of high end Vic metro talent.

Yeah, it's a unique year.
Hard to know what we'll do.

 

[Crow till I die]

Would be nice to know what next's years rules will be for bid matching, but thats another issue...

I have no idea what Carlton want to do - if we are happy with Dean as our first pick then absolutely a trade with yoursleves could make sense and maybe the addition of f2 with 16 and f1 would be enough, but probably also need more points for this year too (Ison matching). Depends also on how keen the crows are on the players available at 9 and 11 (or whatever the picks become) so may pay (slight) overs.

From my perspective, would be disspointed if all Carlotn did was take 9 and 11 to the draft with no pick trading. I think we can do more with 9 and 11 than just match a Dean bid, use the subsequent late first to pick another player, and then match any bid on Ison. We either trade to get up the draft order, or trade down for points to get another 2026 f1.

Can we trade an F2 with an F1 without having a replacement pick? or has that rule changed?. If so, then yeah, that might be where its headed, although this would absolutely be one of those possible deals that is a real time on night play IF both Adelaide and Carlton are in the position for it to work and if no bid has come in for Dean early, then Carlton might be able to use pick 9 themselves and then trade out 11 after that

 

[Stamos]

Can we trade an F2 with an F1 without having a replacement pick? or has that rule changed?

Yes, for the next year you can trade out all your picks, but the 1st or all others still applies to 2 years out.

 

[Crow till I die]

Yes, for the next year you can trade out all your picks, but the 1st or all others still applies to 2 years out.

Cheers for that. So if Carlton were keen, a deal like that might fly then as they may then have a side deal to trade an F2 back into this draft for points for Ison.

 

[bigman]

cant imagine Carlton making that deal.

Id imagine it would involve our F2 and maybe some later pick swaps as well.

Seems a long shot though.

 

[Mutineer]

Id imagine it would involve our F2 and maybe some later pick swaps as well.

Seems a long shot though.

Said the same earlier on our board, cannot see a deal for 9 & 11 not getting done without it.

Like you I don't think it happens.

 

[bigman]

Said the same earlier on our board, cannot see a deal for 9 & 11 not getting done without it.

Like you I don't think it happens.

Carlton wouldn’t be talking to us if they didn’t think we could benefit them in some way.

16 and a F1 alone doesn’t do that.

It would likely need our F2 and 48 as well. At which point it’s a lot of eggs in one basket, assuming Carlton even agree to it.

Unlike others I don’t hate this draft however so I’m not against it. Although I’d rather keep 48 as I think there could be some value there.

 

[Crow till I die]

Carlton wouldn’t be talking to us if they didn’t think we could benefit them in some way.

16 and a F1 alone doesn’t do that.

It would likely need our F2 and 48 as well. At which point it’s a lot of eggs in one basket, assuming Carlton even agree to it.

Unlike others I don’t hate this draft however so I’m not against it. Although I’d rather keep 48 as I think there could be some value there.

Tbf,if you are adding 48 it doesn't really matter as we would only be taking 3 live picks of which 2 are at the relative pointy end so pick 53 becomes our next pick. So if thats what it took at the end along with our f2, no problem

 

[bigman]

Tbf,if you are adding 48 it doesn't really matter as we would only be taking 3 live picks of which 2 are at the relative pointy end so pick 53 becomes our next pick. So if thats what it took at the end along with our f2, no problem

A fair point.

Our 64 would be superfluous as well. I’d imagine we look to trade it out. Assuming someone wants it.

 

[1990crow]

A fair point.

Our 64 would be superfluous as well. I’d imagine we look to trade it out. Assuming someone wants it.

I would ok if the trade looked something like this.

Blues give:
Picks 9, 11 and F3

Crows give:
Picks 16, Future first, 48, Future 2nd

But only if one of Cumming or Sharp is there at 9. Otherwise I don't think it's worth it.

 

[bigman]

I would ok if the trade looked something like this.

Blues give:
Picks 9, 11 and F3

Crows give:
Picks 16, 48, Future 2nd

But only if one of Cumming or Sharp is there at 9. Otherwise I don't think it's worth it.

Carlton don’t have a F3.

Likely their F4 back to replace the one we gave North.

I’m guessing you forgot to add our F1 to that deal.

 

[1990crow]

Carlton don’t have a F3.

Likely their F4 back to replace the one we gave North.

Fair. Yeh. I'd still do that.
Unless a 2027 F2 is also worth considering.

 

[THE_GUN]

I would ok if the trade looked something like this.

Blues give:
Picks 9, 11 and F3

Crows give:
Picks 16, 48, Future 2nd

But only if one of Cumming or Sharp is there at 9. Otherwise I don't think it's worth it.

Am i missing something here ?
9 + 11 +f3 for 16+48 +f2

Carlton would be totally stupid to do that deal

 

[Keystone agony]

The only way i can see it before other things move between blues and crows is

Swap of 2027 1st

Adel In: Pick 9, Blues F1(2027)

Blues In: Pick 16, 48, Crows F1(2026), Crows F1 (2027)

 

[GWS Goose]

I would ok if the trade looked something like this.

Blues give:
Picks 9, 11 and F3

Crows give:
Picks 16, 48, Future 2nd

But only if one of Cumming or Sharp is there at 9. Otherwise I don't think it's worth it.

So 9 and 11 for 16 and 46and a swap of picks late.
Carlton getting absolutely torched there.
Unless you've left out the future 1st from crows as well

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I love how people think sharp will slide the kid has been playing sanfl all year ,the best player in the u18 champs but because he didnt play in Victoria he isn't rated as high ? Didn't the SA team dominate the champs i hope he does slide and it comes back to bite sides in the ass

I dont think he should slide i rate him top 3. But I think he will he might get to hawthorn's pick.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

There is an outside chance that happens.
Richmond won't pick him.
If he gets past the 4 picks that Melbourne and Essendon have from 5-8, hell probably be there at 13.
Carlton, GWS and Hawthorn are looking for different styles of players and are unlikely to pick him.

Melbourne will pick Robey if hes there nothing surer.

 

[1990crow]

Am i missing something here ?
9 + 11 +f3 for 16+48 +f2

Carlton would be totally stupid to do that deal

My bad. Missed the F1.