Prediction Draft rumours

[BrutThough]

So it could look like this...
Seems pretty fair all-round and everyone gets what they want:

Adelaide
in: Pick 4 (Saints), Pick 27 (Bulldogs)
out: Pick 8 and 21

St Kilda
in: Pick 7 (Bulldogs), Pick 32 (Bulldogs)
out: Pick 4, Pick 36

Bulldogs
in: Pick 8 (Adelaide), Pick 21 (Adelaide), Pick 36 (St Kilda)
out: Pick 7, Pick 27 and Pick 32

How is downgrading a top ten pick to move up 4 places in the 30s a good deal?

 

[Suma Magic]

Can you even facilitate a 3 way trade on the night. Id assume you can only offer collateral that you hold? So if the crows were bidding on pick 4, I'm not sure they can offer the dogs picks. I could be wrong of course.

Yeah why not? They would have specified if live trades were limited to two teams.

 

[DangerSloane]

It's called "mummysboy syndrome" mainly affects Vic metro kids before a draft.

Jack Gunston likes this

 

[Arr0w]

At some point you have to back your systems, your welfare, etc. These recruiters spend months and years doing research, they know more than you and me combined. I disagree with you on Rankine, think he's the one that has STAR written over him

No doubt, but they too are not immune to making mistakes. Show me a recruiter that has a 100% let alone a better than 60% strike rate

Everyone disagrees with me on Rankine, while being my number 1 in xfactor/freakishness, overall he still has many flaws that people seem blinded too

Anyway will be interesting to look back in the next 4-5 years

 

[DangerSloane]

So they should just give up?

Doesn’t seem a reasonable solution to me.

Get the right people to the club off the field and things can turn, often quickly.

It won’t be quick for the Suns but they won’t give up and nor should they.

Wasn't suggesting that, but given their position, finding players who are likely to hang around is a priority.

AFC are in a similar position in a way.

 

[DangerSloane]

The point is, right now just about every single player they select is a flight risk.

And it'll remain as such until they get things right, which they have made moves towards in recent years.

If they believe Rankine is the best player for them, they should pick him, regardless of where he is from.

Nope. If they believe he is 1% better than the next guy and the next guy is 50% more likely to stay then they should pick the next guy.

If you had seen players from interstate walk out the door consistently you'd have a different slant on it I think.

 

[DangerSloane]

I think you're missing the point a bit. They have to go for the best player, as dies every club. You dont want them leaving after two years, but if necessary you back the club to extract value from the trade.

Less and less value for players wanting to go home, esp out of contract after 2 years.
The new club realises the old club has very few options

One of the drawbacks of giving the players ultimate power and the clubs none.

 

[Crow till I die]

How is downgrading a top ten pick to move up 4 places in the 30s a good deal?

Seems odd that one. I would have thought at minimum if the Saints are downgrading that they would have to end up with 2 x 1st rounders - a top 10 and pick 21 would not even cut it I would think

 

[LukeParkerno1]

No doubt, but they too are not immune to making mistakes. Show me a recruiter that has a 100% let alone a better than 60% strike rate

Everyone disagrees with me on Rankine, while being my number 1 in xfactor/freakishness, overall he still has many flaws that people seem blinded too

Anyway will be interesting to look back in the next 4-5 years

We all make howlers. I remember the draft where Tom Swift went, and I thought jeez he should go top 3. No one gets the drafts perfect. Then you have players like Luke Parker going pick 40- drafting and recruiters will never be perfect, but they are paid big dollars to get more right than wrong.

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

"Seems pretty fair all-round" Lol. Are you serious?

St Kilda
in: Pick 7 (Bulldogs), Pick 32 (Bulldogs)
out: Pick 4, Pick 36

Our recruiting team would be sacked on the spot and be the laughing stock of the AFL.​

How about this then...?

Adelaide
in: Pick 4 (Saints), Pick 32 (Bulldogs)
out: Pick 8 and 21

St Kilda
in: Pick 7 (Bulldogs), Pick 27 (Bulldogs)
out: Pick 4, Pick 36

Bulldogs
in: Pick 8 (Adelaide), Pick 21 (Adelaide), Pick 36 (St Kilda)
out: Pick 7, Pick 27 and Pick 32

 

[Arr0w]

We all make howlers. I remember the draft where Tom Swift went, and I thought jeez he should go top 3. No one gets the drafts perfect. Then you have players like Luke Parker going pick 40- drafting and recruiters will never be perfect, but they are paid big dollars to get more right than wrong.

Interesting on Swift, had some bad injuries, but was still a gifted player. Wondering what could have been if he didn't pursue his non football career so early

 

[The Jack]

How about this then...?

Adelaide
in: Pick 4 (Saints), Pick 32 (Bulldogs)
out: Pick 8 and 21

St Kilda
in: Pick 7 (Bulldogs), Pick 27 (Bulldogs)
out: Pick 4, Pick 36

Bulldogs
in: Pick 8 (Adelaide), Pick 21 (Adelaide), Pick 36 (St Kilda)
out: Pick 7, Pick 27 and Pick 32

Stop it.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Interesting on Swift, had some bad injuries, but was still a gifted player. Wondering what could have been if he didn't pursue his non football career so early

Some people even though are good footballers are just not motivated to be footballers. Tom has gone on post football and is successful- thing he's a doctor from memory or something like that.

 

[Virgin Dog]

"Seems pretty fair all-round" Lol. Are you serious?

St Kilda
in: Pick 7 (Bulldogs), Pick 32 (Bulldogs)
out: Pick 4, Pick 36

Our recruiting team would be sacked on the spot and be the laughing stock of the AFL.​

Adelaide get way too good of a deal, Saints get ****ed, and Dogs downgrade their first pick in return for a pick that will likely be swallowed by a bid on Rhylee West anyway. No way Saints or Dogs would go for that

 

[Arr0w]

Some people even though are good footballers are just not motivated to be footballers. Tom has gone on post football and is successful- thing he's a doctor from memory or something like that.

Think that was the original desire, investment banker I believe

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

How is downgrading a top ten pick to move up 4 places in the 30s a good deal?

Yea, fair enough looking back at it that doesn't make much sense for the Saints does it.
I had a quick look at the picks each club has and came up with that.
Have a look yourself and tweak what I've come up with to make if fairer.
Adelaide do have 2 picks in the teens that might have to come into it.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Less and less value for players wanting to go home, esp out of contract after 2 years.
The new club realises the old club has very few options

One of the drawbacks of giving the players ultimate power and the clubs none.

That's not actually true as I see it, although a common view. We've had two a graders bail after their initial contracts inrecent years.

We got excellent value for Treloar, and the trade with Marchbank was so complicated and multi-faceted I dont think anyone will ever really know the value we extracted.

 

[DangerSloane]

No doubt, but they too are not immune to making mistakes. Show me a recruiter that has a 100% let alone a better than 60% strike rate

Everyone disagrees with me on Rankine, while being my number 1 in xfactor/freakishness, overall he still has many flaws that people seem blinded too

Anyway will be interesting to look back in the next 4-5 years

Look at our recruitment over the last 8-10 years.
Very few misses and lots of late gems.

Retention an issue, sure... but recruiting has been pretty damn good.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Think that was the original desire, investment banker I believe

Still a good profession. In the end even though we live and breathe footy, some people don't regardless of how good they are at football. I always say you have to be happy at what you do- don't do something just because you are good at it.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Yea, fair enough looking back at it that doesn't make much sense for the Saints does it.
I had a quick look at the picks each club has and came up with that.
Have a look yourself and tweak what I've come up with to make if fairer.
Adelaide do have 2 picks in the teens that might have to come into it.

What's the actual aim of the trade?

I understand Adelaide wanting to get their hands on pick 4 but I don't see why the other clubs would even look at it.

 

[JUSTWORK]

How about this then...?

Adelaide
in: Pick 4 (Saints), Pick 32 (Bulldogs)
out: Pick 8 and 21

St Kilda
in: Pick 7 (Bulldogs), Pick 27 (Bulldogs)
out: Pick 4, Pick 36

Bulldogs
in: Pick 8 (Adelaide), Pick 21 (Adelaide), Pick 36 (St Kilda)
out: Pick 7, Pick 27 and Pick 32

To give up pick 4 saints would (at minimum) want 8 and one of 13/16 from Adelaide. Even then doubtful they’d take it.

 

[DangerSloane]

That's not actually true as I see it, although a common view. We've had two a graders bail after their initial contracts inrecent years.

We got excellent value for Treloar, and the trade with Marchbank was so complicated and multi-faceted I dont think anyone will ever really know the value we extracted.

You got 'excellent value' but it retaining them could've been the difference between having a flag and not having one.
Value is one thing, but it sets back your club another 2 years because you have to go back to the draft.

You also had the ability to start a bit of a war given they wanted to go to a place with 9 teams not 2.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

To give up pick 4 saints would (at minimum) want 8 and one of 13/16 from Adelaide. Even then doubtful they’d take it.

Think they rejected 8 and 13 earlier last week, doubt anything has changed.

 

[DangerSloane]

Still a good profession. In the end even though we live and breathe footy, some people don't regardless of how good they are at football. I always say you have to be happy at what you do- don't do something just because you are good at it.

Some kids have a 'choice' and some dont.
The ones that dont seem to almost always be more hungry.

 

[tigs2010]

Not sure if draft rumors or live pick trade predictions and mummas boy thread