Prediction Draft rumours

[Hodgy]

Are we really going to drag this silliness into yet another thread? GC's problems are on field, they're going just fine off field and the AFL isn't going to move them anytime soon. This point is a distraction and not useful.

Sorry mate I wasn’t aware this was something that had been thrashed. I wasn’t having a go at GC by the way, more making the point that of all the clubs, they need to see quick results more than anyone else.
I assume that guys like Lynch and May didn’t leave because of culture or homesickness, it seems more likely that they felt they would go through their whole career without success if they didn’t move.
The problem now is all their 25 year olds who if they see the club drafting for success in 5 years will feel the same and look elsewhere before that happens. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy that can only be reversed by seeing progress now.

 

[RUNVS]

The great unknown here is are there multiple players GC want that will be there in the teens? and if a 2019 pick was included then it also serves their interests for next season in terms of loading up for another assault at the draft or to target players. Not saying any of this happens but until draft night your guess is literally as good as mine or anyone else's

To me I think Adelaide will need to play overs to get pick 2, but it is a case of just how much do you want Lukosius because in 5 days there could be a video on the Adelaide website where Lukosius is saying how excited he is to be joining the Crows.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Sorry mate I wasn’t aware this was something that had been thrashed. I wasn’t having a go at GC by the way, more making the point that of all the clubs, they need to see quick results more than anyone else.
I assume that guys like Lynch and May didn’t leave because of culture or homesickness, it seems more likely that they felt they would go through their whole career without success if they didn’t move.
The problem now is all their 25 year olds who if they see the club drafting for success in 5 years will feel the same and look elsewhere before that happens. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy that can only be reversed by seeing progress now.

You're all good, it just tend to infect a lot of unrelated Gold Coast discussions. Maybe yes and maybe no, all I know is Swallow recently re-signed and Martin hasn't made any noises about leaving yet.

 

[Crow till I die]

To me I think Adelaide will need to play overs to get pick 2, but it is a case of just how much do you want Lukosius because in 5 days there could be a video on the Adelaide website where Lukosius is saying how excited he is to be joining the Crows.

You need to become a PR salesman

 

[Hodgy]

To me I think Adelaide will need to play overs to get pick 2, but it is a case of just how much do you want Lukosius because in 5 days there could be a video on the Adelaide website where Lukosius is saying how excited he is to be joining the Crows.

For some reason everyone assumes that all trades happen because the team trading up is the instigator and the team trading down reluctantly agree. In the NFL there are more trades initiated by a team looking to trade down than wanting to trade up. It totally depends on motivation.
In this case it could easily be GC, or more likely Carlton, ringing Adelaide and Port trying to engineer a deal.

 

[RUNVS]

For some reason everyone assumes that all trades happen because the team trading up is the instigator and the team trading down reluctantly agree. In the NFL there are more trades initiated by a team looking to trade down than wanting to trade up. It totally depends on motivation.
In this case it could easily be GC, or more likely Carlton, ringing Adelaide and Port trying to engineer a deal.

Possibly, but I think in this case Adelaide really want Lukosius. I mean Walker is at an age where you need to start planning his replacement and the benefit of Lukosius from an Adelaide point of view is there is no risk of any go home factor. Draft Lukosius and odds are he will be a Crow for life.

 

[Hodgy]

Possibly, but I think in this case Adelaide really want Lukosius. I mean Walker is at an age where you need to start planning his replacement.

Totally true, and we lost McGovern. Adelaide are definately motivated to trade up.
I also feel though that if I was GC or Carlton list managers, I would be looking at the best draft in 15 years and thinking I really need to get as many picks in this as possible. Therefore They should be motivated to trade down.
There is probably a lot of bluffing going on and quite likely a crap load of activity will happen last minute.
Should be fun.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Suns to take Ben King with pick 6

Interesting, sounded like they’ve been choosing between Rozee and Caldwell

Good source?

 

[footyfan000001]

Not really a rumour but Ben King spotted at Whitten Oval today plus apparently Bailey smith and his family currently there meeting Sam Power.

 

[RUNVS]

Interesting, sounded like they’ve been choosing between Rozee and Caldwell

Good source?

Random question but have you considered changing your username in the last few years? Apart from the fact that Walker is married, Dangerfield is no longer at Adelaide.

 

[Crow till I die]

Possibly, but I think in this case Adelaide really want Lukosius. I mean Walker is at an age where you need to start planning his replacement and the benefit of Lukosius from an Adelaide point of view is there is no risk of any go home factor. Draft Lukosius and odds are he will be a Crow for life.

Darcy Fogarty is the one to take Tex's spot long term - he is going to be an absolutely super player. Lukosius would be able to interchange with Fogarty through FF / CHF and also roam down the wing and swing into defence if needed. We also have Himmelberg coming through and he shows promise. Lukosius would be a very very nice get if it turned out that way

 

[RUNVS]

Darcy Fogarty is the one to take Tex's spot long term - he is going to be an absolutely super player. Lukosius would be able to interchange with Fogarty through FF / CHF and also roam down the wing and swing into defence if needed. We also have Himmelberg coming through and he shows promise. Lukosius would be a very very nice get if it turned out that way

How is Himmelberg coming along? I know his brother at GWS played some good football in 2018.

 

[liz]

Totally true, and we lost McGovern. Adelaide are definately motivated to trade up.
I also feel though that if I was GC or Carlton list managers, I would be looking at the best draft in 15 years and thinking I really need to get as many picks in this as possible. Therefore They should be motivated to trade down.
There is probably a lot of bluffing going on and quite likely a crap load of activity will happen last minute.
Should be fun.

What makes it "the best draft in 15 years"? From what I have read it is the top 6/7/8 (depending on exactly what you read) that makes this draft a stand-out. So why would a club that can access three of this group trade down so that it can't access three of this group? It's not as if the Suns have a whole heap of list spots that mean they'll still be drafting late in the draft. They'll be done by halfway through the second round.

 

[Crow till I die]

How is Himmelberg coming along? I know his brother at GWS played some good football in 2018.

How is Himmelberg coming along? I know his brother at GWS played some good football in 2018.

Slowly but he got a senior game late and showed some neat skills. A big preseason now and I hope he can push for a more regular spot. We did bid on his brother Harry in his draft year and he can certainly play

 

[Port Woolwich]

Hypothetical spanner thrown in on draft night.
What if Carlton bid on Blakey at pick 1?

Would swans match? and draft could be completely different if so.

Blakey would not be the most left field no.1 pick

 

[Danger in Texas]

Random question but have you considered changing your username in the last few years? Apart from the fact that Walker is married, Dangerfield is no longer at Adelaide.

Already changed it after Tippett left, not spending another $10 for an internet forum username change haha

 

[Pykie]

Not a chance as that is essentially three mid-teens picks for pick 2 and 24.

I mean even points wise it doesn't work as you are asking for 3400+ points and offering about the same number of points in exchange. The problem is pick 2 is always worth more than a few picks in the mid teens.

There was an article back during trade week which analyzed all the first round pick upgrade trades.

They all averaged about a 1000 pts in the favor of the team facilitating the deal over the club wanting the deal.

I imagine it's a good rule of thumb clubs are using, additional yo your point, Adelaide would have to add another 1000pts for it to be realistic.

 

[RUNVS]

Already changed it after Tippett left, not spending another $10 for an internet forum username change haha

$10 for a username change? That sounds like a massive rip off. Should be free, in fact I am surprised it isn't free.

 

[gcsunsfc]

Sorry mate I wasn’t aware this was something that had been thrashed. I wasn’t having a go at GC by the way, more making the point that of all the clubs, they need to see quick results more than anyone else.
I assume that guys like Lynch and May didn’t leave because of culture or homesickness, it seems more likely that they felt they would go through their whole career without success if they didn’t move.
The problem now is all their 25 year olds who if they see the club drafting for success in 5 years will feel the same and look elsewhere before that happens. It becomes a self fulfilling prophecy that can only be reversed by seeing progress now.

Which 25 year olds are you talking about?
David Swallow already recommitted For 5 years.
Alex sexton is a Queenslander.
Doubt witts, day, young would move for success.

Jack Martin is the only one I’d put in that category.

 

[Danger in Texas]

$10 for a username change? That sounds like a massive rip off. Should be free, in fact I am surprised it isn't free.

It was the last time I changed it (back in 2012). Had to get a premium account. Not sure if anything has changed

 

[RUNVS]

Hypothetical spanner thrown in on draft night.
What if Carlton bid on Blakey at pick 1?

Would swans match? and draft could be completely different if so.

Blakey would not be the most left field no.1 pick

Within 12 hours Ikon Park will suffer a mysterious accident.

 

[RUNVS]

It was the last time I changed it (back in 2012). Had to get a premium account. Not sure if anything has changed

Should email the admin and ask. I know he was letting Hawthorn fans for free change their Buddy usernames at the end of 2013.

 

[Hodgy]

What makes it "the best draft in 15 years"? From what I have read it is the top 6/7/8 (depending on exactly what you read) that makes this draft a stand-out. So why would a club that can access three of this group trade down so that it can't access three of this group? It's not as if the Suns have a whole heap of list spots that mean they'll still be drafting late in the draft. They'll be done by halfway through the second round.

That guy Cal Twomey on his podcast on theAFL website said it is the best draft since 2001 I think. Sheehan was on radio here the other day saying the same thing. Personally I’m not sure but it does look like there could easily be players taken from 10 to 25 that could end up elite. Hately, Jones, Butters, RCD, they could all end up A graders.

 

[Wargreymon90]

Hypothetical spanner thrown in on draft night.
What if Carlton bid on Blakey at pick 1?

Would swans match? and draft could be completely different if so.

Blakey would not be the most left field no.1 pick

Why wouldn’t they?

 

[Robertio]

Totally true, and we lost McGovern. Adelaide are definately motivated to trade up.
I also feel though that if I was GC or Carlton list managers, I would be looking at the best draft in 15 years and thinking I really need to get as many picks in this as possible. Therefore They should be motivated to trade down.
There is probably a lot of bluffing going on and quite likely a crap load of activity will happen last minute.
Should be fun.

Best draft in 15 years and we can get the best of the best why would we want to trade down?