Draft vs Doozy

[SpudsLoveChild]

The whole doozy concept is a zero sum game.

Unless you get a Dangerfield scenario (wanting to move to a specific club), the only way you get a gun player is to pay for it. And then the same people getting bent out of shape about 'pass marks' for the trade period will be twisting off that we consequently have shit picks in the draft.

We played the game trading for name players in the past (Kane Johnson, Brown, etc) and we paid overs. There's a lesson to be learned in that.

Yarran doesn't fuss me either way and surely JOM has knees that are shot. I am happy to just trade any player who wants to leave us and back ourselves in the draft.

Hawks have picked up plenty of quality ready made players that have lifted them to the dominant force they are now. It's a shame we're not as appealing as the Hawks were when Burgoyne, Gunston, etc. made their move.

 

[TigerTime3]

Draft Picks >>>>> Doozies

 

[Tiger2709]

Now this is a real Doozy

 

[The Goon]

Doozy would be good, but only at the right price.

We've also been a bit unlucky the last two years. Trengove would have been a top pick up and that was almost across the line, but we dodged a bullet there. Bennell looked strongly linked but if the rumours are true we didn't really have a choice to drop him. History will tell if we dodged a bullet there too. Treloar is the main one that bugs me but the reported price of two firsts was pretty steep.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

The way i see it so far before Trade week starts:
Would Yarran won us the EF?-Maybe
Would the Doozy-Yes
Would CEllis-Not this years,But future maybe.
This year would have been ideal to give up our 1st for a Dozzy.(Dare say other clubs would have been of the same opinion hence they would want more)
Next year keep our picks and look at FA.

 

[blxx]

Not too fussed about Chris Yarran especially if he is going to cost us pick12 – PULLLEEEESE!!! Whenever his name pops up I immediately think of those missed goals a few years back that could of sunk us in round 1. Was I glad he missed them back then? HELL YEAH! Am I now? Hmmmm… I wouldn't be upset now if all he cost us is a second round downgrade.

If we secure Jacob Townsend for pittance I’d be over the moon! North exposed our lack of contested ball winners and having Townsend support Cotch and Milesy will instantly improve us for very little cost! He ain’t the perfect 190+cm powerful mid I was hoping for but if he has a strong preseason and breaks into our team early he could well be the sting in our tail that we've been craving!

I have a lot of hope for a few of our young guns too. Of course C.Ellis and C.Menadue come to mind but I’m really excited about Dan. Although he had an injury interupted end to his first year I just have a nagging suspicion he will be one to watch next year. A super quick tackling machine that can kick goals would definitley help solve our small forward dilemma.

All in all, we don’t need a doozy if we end up Yarran/Townsend and another quality Pick 12.

I'm down with that.

 

[Tiger2709]

Not too fussed about Chris Yarran especially if he is going to cost us pick12 – PULLLEEEESE!!! Whenever his name pops up I immediately think of those missed goals a few years back that could of sunk us in round 1. Was I glad he missed them back then? HELL YEAH! Am I now? Hmmmm… I wouldn't be upset now if all he cost us is a second round downgrade.

If we secure Jacob Townsend for pittance I’d be over the moon! North exposed our lack of contested ball winners and having Townsend support Cotch and Milesy will instantly improve us for very little cost! He ain’t the perfect 190+cm powerful mid I was hoping for but if he has a strong preseason and breaks into our team early he could well be the sting in our tail that we've been craving!

I have a lot of hope for a few of our young guns too. Of course C.Ellis and C.Menadue come to mind but I’m really excited about Dan. Although he had an injury interupted end to his first year I just have a nagging suspicion he will be one to watch next year. A super quick tackling machine that can kick goals would definitley help solve our small forward dilemma.

All in all, we don’t need a doozy if we end up Yarran/Townsend and another quality Pick 12.

I'm down with that.

I feel much the same , would have loved Bennel, Treloar or Danger but it wasnt to be and its not as though we were the only clubs in for them that missed out.

Many of those supporters from other clubs that said we lacked ambition last year, got less out of thier expensive recruits than we got from some of our drafts, we are moving forward, slowely but surely and you cant pay overs to bring in a trade while asking your existing players to take unders, this isn't a problem for a Hawthorn as players now all think they can do a Frawley and pick up an easy flag, but for us it restricts who we can take.

If we get Townsend at a good price and he can have anywhere near the impact of Miles we will be winners, as for Yarran only at the right price, a pick 12 with nothing back is too much for a player that the bottom side Carlton, doesnt want and didn't play.

 

[BF Tiger]

I'd like a doozy to hurry the process along. Some players can be drafted who make an immediate impact, others will take time and some will be duds meaning the club has to go to the next trade/draft to improve. In two of those scenarios our list has aged. Ideally that brings across the board improvement in the young guys, but with the older guys maybe tailing off.

 

[Tiger2709]

I'd like a doozy to hurry the process along. Some players can be drafted who make an immediate impact, others will take time and some will be duds meaning the club has to go to the next trade/draft to improve. In two of those scenarios our list has aged. Ideally that brings across the board improvement in the young guys, but with the older guys maybe tailing off.

Fair comment but our age group of players is for the most just entering the stage where we are of the age that wins flags, maybe selling the farm to bring in a doozy this year is a year too soon and may result in a Spud Frawley situation?
We dont want too end up like Carlton with a maxxed cap and a team full of spuds, weve already tried that route.

 

[TheProwler]

Draft Picks >>>>> Doozies

Absolutely.

Okay let's speak hypothetically for a moment and say we traded in a doozy giving up pick #12 & our first pick next year #18. Yes we get a doozy but lose the opportunity to draft in two potential doozy's. Now let's go a step further and imagine just for a moment the doozy does a Nathan Brown (past doozy) and our new doozy is forced to watch on as the two draft picks we lost run around for a few years developing into two AFL players. It's this reason I have more faith in drafting in two kids than trading in a doozy that may or may not work out.

If a doozy comes along in FA and we effectively get for nothing more than salary cap hit then so long as we can afford it then let's go that way I say. **** selling the farm for kids chasing money and focus on developing a our1st round pick into a top footballer.

 

[TheProwler]

Fair comment but our age group of players is for the most just entering the stage where we are of the age that wins flags, maybe selling the farm to bring in a doozy this year is a year too soon and may result in a Spud Frawley situation?
We dont want too end up like Carlton with a maxxed cap and a team full of spuds, weve already tried that route.

I would be happier to bring in a bloke like Stevie J for a year or two tops that costs nothing but some salary cap. If it doesn't work out then so be it but we haven't had to give up draft picks for him.

 

[Livonski]

I reckon draft picks are ridiculously over valued. Chances are they take 2-4 years to kick in. That's if they work out.
When you are Carlton or Bris...yep, draft for talent, you're going to be 4-6 years from serious action.
When you're Rich, Nth, etc you've already got a strong core. Why not give that a big boost by bringing in a ready made best 22 upgrade?

I rate a Yarran above a pick 12 kid that might turn out, for example.

 

[Foley#41]

If you knew Doozy,
Like I know Doozy....

 

[Tiger2709]

I would be happier to bring in a bloke like Stevie J for a year or two tops that costs nothing but some salary cap. If it doesn't work out then so be it but we haven't had to give up draft picks for him.

He would be worth the risk, be nice to have someone that knows how to win finals and would come cheap so no real risk and no picks lost.

 

[Grockadoc]

I think a balance of both is essential.

Without bringing in quality kids and investing in the "now" rather than the "later" we will end up in a position like St. kilda in the late 2000's where we will go from a strong team to a cellar dweller because we invested too heavily in getting a flag to look at how to build for sustained success.

However, without bringing in quality established players or "doozies", we have to play players who are not up to being best 22 AFL players in Flag Contention sides, which in turn have a negative impact on potential finals success.

I think we have TRIED to get the balance of both over the years, but the fact we have been unable to land any player who is not only young enough to be a future player, but good enough to be a star means we had to go through the draft.

By not securing any player who will give us another edge, and drafting kids, it means by the time most of them are ready to play senior footy, we are back to square one, when some of our better and older players are on the wane of their careers (Lids, Jack etc.)

 

[pazza86]

When will lids be moved to vets lists?

 

[the push up king]

Every year everyone loses it because we didn't land a rumoured player. The only reasons, from what I can see is different this year is that;
1. The club made it very clear that landing a big fish was their full intent, and have been preparing for years.
2. Players like lids, taking pay cuts with idea of landing a big name, and then not( that is to say if we don't).
That would piss you off as a seasoned player that has gone through a lot of tough times and is putting the clubs success over his own financial reward.
I feel that possibly this might also have something to do with lennon's contract talks taking so long. Here's a kid who has yet to truely prove himself, yet potentially wants more money then he is worth( I could be jumping to conclusions here, just an assumption). So if you put that along side lids taking a pay cut, it wouldn't sit well with players or the football dept.

2nd for yarran
3rd for Townsend
Dfa - Stevie j
Take pick 12 to the draft

For a team that was 1 and a half wins from 2nd place, is it all really that bad?

 

[NZ_Tiger]

So it's day 2 of free agency and everyone is melting because we haven't landed a big fish yet, so it might be a good time to make this thread.

Every year we get meltdowns over our inability to land the big fish. Every year we keep our first rounder. Yet every year we come away with another quality player with our first rounder. That doesn't stop people from complaining about the lack of doozy though.

The 4 drafts since free agency was introduced have been the same old story.

2012: Meltdown because we missed Dom Tyson with pick 9. We ended up getting Nick Vlastuin with that pick. Got McIntosh in the 2nd round too.

2013: Meltdown because we missed Taylor Adams. We ended up getting Ben Lennon with that pick. Funnily enough, everyone is furious that Ben might be leaving soon.

2014: Meltdown because we missed Greenwood and other assorted Doozys (Doozi?, not sure what the plural is). Ended up drafting Corey Ellis and Menadue.

2015: Meltdown before trade week has even started because we've missed Treloar, Danfgerfield, Motlop and Bennell and it's looking like there probably won't be a doozy.

Looking at that, missing out on doozys has been good for us so far and we've still managed to improve the list, and we haven't had to break the bank either.

So the question is: do we even need a doozy, or are you happy to back our recruiters in with pick 12?

Hardly compelling. I'd take Tyson and Adams ahead of Vlaustuin and Lennon. We need inside midfielder not a small defender and HFF. Greenwood, well we would never have looked at him if we had the other two.

 

[bigstyletiger]

Good OP. No doubt in my mind that we will have more sustained success due to missing on Armitage and drafting Corey Ellis last year. Tyson I think is more valuable than Vlastuin at this stage but at the same time Vlastuin finished high in our B and F and will be a rock in our side for years to come.

A lot of people complaining about the Hawks continually using their draft picks to land players but at the end of the day they didn't give up their first picks until they had the core fully built. We should be entering that position right now. If a doozy comes along who fits needs/payment structure etc now is the time as we have the foundations of long term success built.

At the same time i'm not going to melt if we don't land a doozy. Obvioulsy the addition of Yarran and a fit Conca next year, along with NATURAL IMPROVEMENT, and a good run with injury will have us challenging.

 

[theflea]

When will lids be moved to vets lists?

Vets list is going so don't worry about it.

 

[CoggaRules]

All the bitching any crying about now getting a big name player has actually turned me off coming to Bigfooty as much anymore. Good to see someone with common sense rather than a lot of the sooks on here.

Hopefully this thread stays on track. Doubtful tho

The question that keeps on keeping on is why did we take Bling when Buddy was available?

 

[CoggaRules]

Every year everyone loses it because we didn't land a rumoured player. The only reasons, from what I can see is different this year is that;
1. The club made it very clear that landing a big fish was their full intent, and have been preparing for years.
2. Players like lids, taking pay cuts with idea of landing a big name, and then not( that is to say if we don't).
That would piss you off as a seasoned player that has gone through a lot of tough times and is putting the clubs success over his own financial reward.
I feel that possibly this might also have something to do with lennon's contract talks taking so long. Here's a kid who has yet to truely prove himself, yet potentially wants more money then he is worth( I could be jumping to conclusions here, just an assumption). So if you put that along side lids taking a pay cut, it wouldn't sit well with players or the football dept.

2nd for yarran
3rd for Townsend
Dfa - Stevie j
Take pick 12 to the draft

For a team that was 1 and a half wins from 2nd place, is it all really that bad?

At the end of the day, this is pretty much the smart move forward IMO.

 

[NUFC Tiger]

I'll take stock after the trade period is done and dusted before making judgement though I normally back the club on most things.

Was funny reading last week some of the melts on social media calling for Dan Richardson's head and lamenting our trade period...even before the trade period was open!

 

[Dr Tigris]

Underlying the OP is how good is our drafting and development. Right now I'd say first rate (at least in the 1st round). So what we're asking is whether a mature A grader now is worth 1/2 potential future good players.
If we are in our window and need a specific player type - Yes!
If we are still building then No!
Right now I'd say a Treloar/Danger would move us to another level. So worth it.
Bennell was a great option, if he was serious. He looks very scary as a risk right now.

Why don't we get these guys? Because we don't overpay. Collingwood overpaid to get Treloar. At some point the club has to decide to pull up stumps. The logic behind this is that you end up paying too much for a few stars and lose depth and ability to pay talented youngsters enough to keep them. Collingwood is buying their way back right now. OK for the next couple of years then the salary cap hits them. If their youngsters are as good as they reckon then they might start losing them. Overpaying to climb into the 8 is stupid. Overpaying to win a premiership can be smart. Sydney overpaid to try and pinch a cup with Buddy etc. They look in trouble now. That's why we aren't landing the big fish. We are trying to balance Doozies and drafts with our eye on the future as well as the present. I like that we stay up and over time get stronger with good drafting and trading. Slow but might get rewards. Go big and usually you fail and fall hard.

 

[Mr Magic]

View attachment 182332

Exactly, Weitering would do nicely