Opinion Drafting since 2003 (taken from the Myers thread)

[Yoda_]

Ok; let me reterm my question..

How many of our first round draft picks are in the top 5% of there field? On output, not development and potential?

Ryder possibly.. Stanton could push the top 5% midfielders, but there are 20 midfielders better than him IMO

 

[Yoda_]

lol, Myers thread has turned into another bash Essendon drafting thread, strangely with a mod doing the derailing.

How dare I have an opinion different to the masses.. More so on BigFooty than any other Internet forum.. My apologies.!

 

[lamaros]

Ok; let me reterm my question..

How many of our first round draft picks are in the top 5% of there field? On output, not development and potential?

Ryder possibly.. Stanton could push the top 5% midfielders, but there are 20 midfielders better than him IMO

How many of ANY first round draft picks are?

It's a stupid bloody question. Why would anyone bother answering it?

 

[Red Black and Blue]

You don't get it - Ryder was selected at pick 7 in 2005 - he was the first ruck selected - When you pick rucks early you want them to become dominant in their position - Ryder has yet to prove that he is dominant - He still has time.

Meeson, Lobbe, McEvoy, Wood, Hampson, Kruezer, Leuenberger, these are the rucks taken in the first round two years either side of Ryder. I don't know about you, but that makes me pretty happy that we drafted Paddy.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

Ok; let me reterm my question..

How many of our first round draft picks are in the top 5% of there field? On output, not development and potential?

Ryder possibly.. Stanton could push the top 5% midfielders, but there are 20 midfielders better than him IMO

Let me rephrase your stupid question.

How many of our picks in the top 20-25% of any given draft are in the top 5% of the competition?

 

[Kong]

Ok; let me reterm my question..

How many of our first round draft picks are in the top 5% of there field? On output, not development and potential?

Ryder possibly.. Stanton could push the top 5% midfielders, but there are 20 midfielders better than him IMO

How many of ANY first round draft picks are?

It's a stupid bloody question. Why would anyone bother answering it?

Agree with lamaros.

Why 5%?

5% of the (approx.) 700 listed AFL players leaves you with 35 players.

Considering there's generally been 16-18 first round picks per year for this entire time period (that's 16 x 10 = 160), you'd be hard pressed to fit 160 into 35.

I don't really understand Yoda's reasoning.

 

[lamaros]

Agree with lamaros.

Why 5%?

5% of the (approx.) 700 listed AFL players leaves you with 35 players.

Considering there's generally been 16-18 first round picks per year for this entire time period (that's 16 x 10 = 160), you'd be hard pressed to fit 160 into 35.

I don't really understand Yoda's reasoning.

It's worse, because champion players can play towards 15 seasons - giving you 240 players who are first round draft picks who would be playing at any given time if they were all well selected.

If you're in the top 50% of first round draft picks, IE, better than average, you'd still be only top 120 in the league.

And that's before we count the 70-90+ other picks taken each year for 'smokies'...

 

[Ben the Gooner]

It surely couldn't be an arbitrary number designed to exclude David Myers and therefore provide Yoda with a sense of self-satisfaction at having proven that a 45 gamer isn't in fact in the top 35 players in the comp.

 

[Kaiser Powser]

I think we need to look at some of these draft numbers a bit more realistically. If a player is say pick 7, you can't say he's a fail if he is not in the top 7 players from his draft. It just doesn't work like that.

 

[Kong]

It surely couldn't be an arbitrary number designed to exclude David Myers and therefore provide Yoda with a sense of self-satisfaction at having proven that a 45 gamer isn't in fact in the top 35 players in the comp.

To be fair, I misread his post.

He did say 5% in their field.

So.

Assuming Myers is classified as a midfielder, I'll do a quick number crunch:

10 midfielders in a team of 22 (including bench & flankers that rotate through)
10/22: 45%
45% x 700 (league players) = 315
315 midfielders in the league
5% x 315 = 15.75

So really Myers needs to GTFO if he's not in the top 16 midfielders in the league right now.

In fact while we're at it, Travis Boak, Daniel Rich, Jack Trengove, Dustin Martin, Nat Fyfe, Dyson Heppell, Luke Shuey and Andrew Gaff can GTFO.

 

[Yoda_]

Let me rephrase your stupid question.

How many of our picks in the top 20-25% of any given draft are in the top 5% of the competition?

Which is exactly why our drafting in the mid 2000's is a detriment on our recruiting staff..

I'll even give you a maximum leeway of 20% and see how you go with the numbers then.!

For some people on here, Myers may not necessarily be in the best 22 come seasons end.

I don't mind Myers, as a player now.. Some on our list are going to go past him soon enough if he cannot get continuity into his game, consistency and form wise..

 

[bombermick]

Yoda's reasoning is simplistic, but he's got a point. I'd argue that besides Heppell and Hurley (when he plays back) are the only guys who could be superstars in their position. Other clubs have picked up the Fyfes (also picked Pav), Franklins (also picked Rioli) and Pendleburys of this world, but our picks are generally solid, rather than superstars.

Luck plays a part, but it's not the whole story ...

 

[Yoda_]

How many of ANY first round draft picks are?

It's a stupid bloody question. Why would anyone bother answering it?

Most clubs would have one in there field.. We have none.!

I'm only going on with it because the top end is where the best players come from..

 

[lamaros]

Yoda doesn't have a clue, about maths or drafting.

As well as picking up Fyfe Fremantle also picked:

Marcus Drum at 10.
Rhys Palmer at 7.
Morabito at 4.
Jayden Pitt at 20.
Thomas Sheridan at 16.

Pick a club. ANY CLUB. I will show you that most are worse than us, some as good.

Hawthorn picked up Mitch Thorp and Beau Dowler, FFS. Where are they playing now?

 

[Kong]

How many clubs would have first round draft picks in the top 5% midfielders in the comp?

That's the top 16, remember.

Adelaide: Dangerfield, Thompson
Brisbane: Nil
Carlton: Judd, Murphy
Collingwood: Pendlebury
Essendon: Nil
Fremantle: Nil
Geelong: Selwood
Gold Coast: Nil
Hawthorn: Nil
Melbourne: Nil
North Melbourne: Nil
Port Adelaide: Nil
Richmond: Cotchin, Deledio
St Kilda: Dal Santo (?)
Sydney: Nil
West Coast: Nil
Western Bulldogs: Griffen

That's 10 of the 16. The others being Swan, Watson, Ablett, Mitchell, Swallow, Hayes, Kennedy (OK, 7)

Obviously it's a bit subjective, but when you actually break it down Yoda_, it's not as simple as you're making out.

 

[Yoda_]

Yoda's reasoning is simplistic, but he's got a point. I'd argue that besides Heppell and Hurley (when he plays back) are the only guys who could be superstars in their position. Other clubs have picked up the Fyfes (also picked Pav), Franklins (also picked Rioli) and Pendleburys of this world, but our picks are generally solid, rather than superstars.

Luck plays a part, but it's not the whole story ...

I guess I'm disappointed we keep picking run of the mill type players when there are genuine stars to be drafted..

 

[Doss]

The lesson here is, among other things, don't use random and arbitrary statistical measures in arguments, especially if they don't actually fit the parameters you're dealing with.

 

[lamaros]

I guess I'm disappointed we keep picking run of the mill type players when there are genuine stars to be drafted..

Put up or shut up. I have provided a detailed breakdown of our first round drafting that demonstrates we have done better than average with those picks. If you wish to keep spouting this crap then prove me wrong.

Every single club in the league has 'missed out' on players. If you want to cast aspersions on our recruiters you need to prove a lot more than you are at the moment.

 

[HULK HOGAN]

Just wondering, good drafting , bad drafting whatever, when was the last time we won a final?? It's obvious the coaching staff are starting to identify players who are not up to it, We are on the move up and if we hit a few pot hole on the way so be it.
Dwelling on our drafting at the moment isn't worth worrying about ATM, I'd rather talk about who's spots are up for grabs and who's is going to replace them. If Melksham doesn't fire up, can Kav or Merret grab his spot? Can Davey recapture his form or will Del rep up, if not what do we do?

 

[rines]

Whilst I don't agree that a pick needs to become a top 5% player to become a 'successful' pick.. I agree with the general principle raised. I would say that Heppell is, on demonstrated skill/talent/output, our best first round draft pick in the last eight years and the only guy that you could lock in as a clear cut 'WIN' for EFC. That is NOT to say our other draft picks have all been failures, far from it, but unfortunately our lack of 'star' power from recruitment has hurt and continues to hurt us.

However hopefully with Watson, Fletcher and Goddard as genuine 'A' graders.. we can add at least 4 more this year.. I think Heppell, Ryder, Hurley, Carlisle, Zaka, Stanton are the group 'most likely' and we would need at least 4 of those guys to step up to be consider moving forward.

I just don't see Gumby or Myers ever getting to be A graders.. and I think that is the main point Yoda, and others, are trying to make.. Two top 10 draft picks that are either outside the best 22 or 'on the edge'... ideally you would have HOPED (wished, desired, desperately wanted) for both of them to become true stars of the comp.

 

[Yoda_]

Put up or shut up. I have provided a detailed breakdown of our first round drafting that demonstrates we have done better than average with those picks. If you wish to keep spouting this crap then prove me wrong.

Every single club in the league has 'missed out' on players. If you want to cast aspersions on our recruiters you need to prove a lot more than you are at the moment.

Your obviously happy with our drafting in the past 10 or so years?

Would you rather 3 players playing 150+ AFL games, or 7 players playing 70 games?

Every club seems to pick up a star, with lots of misses, we keep picking solid picks..

Dont think im spouting crap at all, but thanks for the kind words lamaros

 

[Yoda_]

Whilst I don't agree that a pick needs to become a top 5% player to become a 'successful' pick.. I agree with the general principle raised. I would say that Heppell is, on demonstrated skill/talent/output, our best first round draft pick in the last eight years and the only guy that you could lock in as a clear cut 'WIN' for EFC. That is NOT to say our other draft picks have all been failures, far from it, but unfortunately our lack of 'star' power from recruitment has hurt and continues to hurt us.

However hopefully with Watson, Fletcher and Goddard as genuine 'A' graders.. we can add at least 4 more this year.. I think Heppell, Ryder, Hurley, Carlisle, Zaka, Stanton are the group 'most likely' and we would need at least 4 of those guys to step up to be consider moving forward.

I just don't see Gumby or Myers ever getting to be A graders.. and I think that is the main point Yoda, and others, are trying to make.. Two top 10 draft picks that are either outside the best 22 or 'on the edge'... ideally you would have HOPED (wished, desired, desperately wanted) for both of them to become true stars of the comp.

And as I mentioned earlier, that is why I am a little disappointed with our recruiting. Yes we got lucky picking up a Bellchambers in the tail end of a draft (correction: PSD), but the true top end players, do come from the early rounds.

 

[Doss]

Okay, so at least we've established there is a grey area, and not just straight wins or fails.

I would look at it something like this:

2011- Kavanagh- grey- too early
2010- Heppell- win
2009- Melksham- grey
2008- Hurley- win
2007- Myers- grey
2006- Gumbleton, Jetta- both grey
2005- Ryder- win

How you could have Ryder as anything but a clear 'win' has me baffled.

 

[Yoda_]

Okay, so at least we've established there is a grey area, and not just straight wins or fails.

I would look at it something like this:

2011- Kavanagh- grey- too early
2010- Heppell- win
2009- Melksham- grey
2008- Hurley- win
2007- Myers- grey
2006- Gumbleton, Jetta- both grey
2005- Ryder- win

How you could have Ryder as anything but a clear 'win' has me baffled.

I can see Hurley's potential, but he is at such a 50 - 50 stage of his career. He hasn't quite come on as far as I would have liked, but learning a fairly new role (playing forward) gives him some credits in the bank.

I do agree Doss, Ryder would be a win, however, is that as a forward where he has played for the best part of two years? or as a ruckmen which he was recruited as?

 

[HULK HOGAN]

Okay, so at least we've established there is a grey area, and not just straight wins or fails.

I would look at it something like this:

2011- Kavanagh- grey- too early
2010- Heppell- win
2009- Melksham- grey
2008- Hurley- win
2007- Myers- grey
2006- Gumbleton, Jetta- both grey
2005- Ryder- win

How you could have Ryder as anything but a clear 'win' has me baffled.

Sadly I'm worried 2006 may be less than grey, Gumby has me really worried now and I don't know how much more scope Jetta has for improvement.