Opinion Drafting since 2003 (taken from the Myers thread)

[rines]

Our Top 10 picks for last 8 years:

2005- Ryder - Question Mark on whether he is a 'superstar', however he was definately 'best available' at the time.. and I think I would have him ahead of the next 10 picks in that draft.
2006- Gumbleton - Fail/Cross
2007- Myers - Fail/Cross
2008- Hurley - Question Mark, and I would have picked a couple of other players ahead of him... still VERY hopeful he will be a J Brown style franchise player.. so please don't get me wrong... but at THIS stage he hasn't quite hit the 'heights' we hoped/others from this draft has reached... still has PLENTY of time.. (others that I had ahead of Hurley include Rich, Davis, Ziebell, Sidebottom, Beams, Shuey (whom I realise I may be alone in rating!),
2009- Melksham - Question Mark, player I had ahead of Melksham at time of draft include: Lucas, Jetta, Menzel, Fyfe and Bastinac.. all of whom it could be argued have achieved more to date..
2010- Heppell - Massive WIN
2011- none
2012- Daniher - To Early to tell.

out of 7 picks I have 1 win, 2 Question Marks, 2 Fails and 1 too early to tell

That is a lot less than 60% winners so far.....

 

[Ben the Gooner]

Ok, fine. If that's how you want to define pass and fail, name a club who's got 60%.

I'd have 3 ticks, 3 question marks and a too early to tell. That's about the standard recruiters should be held to. Hurley is a tick, regardless of whether Beams or Sloane or someone picked in the 5th round turns out better. Ryder is unquestionably a tick.

I'm not heavily into writing players off before they play their 50th game.

 

[Old Campaigner]

Our Top 10 picks for last 8 years:

2005- Ryder - Question Mark on whether he is a 'superstar', however he was definately 'best available' at the time.. and I think I would have him ahead of the next 10 picks in that draft.
2006- Gumbleton - Fail/Cross
2007- Myers - Fail/Cross
2008- Hurley - Question Mark, and I would have picked a couple of other players ahead of him... still VERY hopeful he will be a J Brown style franchise player.. so please don't get me wrong... but at THIS stage he hasn't quite hit the 'heights' we hoped/others from this draft has reached... still has PLENTY of time.. (others that I had ahead of Hurley include Rich, Davis, Ziebell, Sidebottom, Beams, Shuey (whom I realise I may be alone in rating!),
2009- Melksham - Question Mark, player I had ahead of Melksham at time of draft include: Lucas, Jetta, Menzel, Fyfe and Bastinac.. all of whom it could be argued have achieved more to date..
2010- Heppell - Massive WIN
2011- none
2012- Daniher - To Early to tell.

out of 7 picks I have 1 win, 2 Question Marks, 2 Fails and 1 too early to tell

That is a lot less than 60% winners so far.....

And what percentage do you come up with when you allow for the fact that Myers and Gumbleton have suffered injuries that could not have been predicted when they were recruited?

Unless you deliberately pick someone like Stringer or Troy Menzel with known injury issues you can hardly say we've been slack when your top picks struggle to live up to the hype due to lack of fitness. For all we know a fit Myers might have wiped the floor with Dangerfield.

 

[rines]

On the question of % of success vs failure of top 10 picks:

2005:

Murphy: Win
Thomas: Win
Ellis: Win
Kennedy: Win
Pendlebury: Win
Dowler: Question Mark
Ryder: QM
JOH: Epic Fail
Clark: QM
Drum: Epic Fail

5 wins, 3 QM, 2 fails

2006:
Gibbs: Win
Gumbleton: Fail
Hansen: Win (according to NM board)
Leuenberger: Win
Boak: Win
Thorp: Fail
Selwood: Win
Reid: Win
Armitage: Win
Brown: Win

8 wins, 2 fails

2007:
Kreuzer: Win (according to Carlscum fans.. although I would say QM)
Cotchin: Win
Masten: Win
Morton: QM
Grant: Fail
Myers: Fail
Palmer: QM
Henderson: QM
McEvoy: Win
Dangerfield: Win

5 wins, 3 QM and 2 fails

 

[Ben the Gooner]

How is Hansen a win yet Hurley a question mark? How is Myers a fail yet Dowler a question mark?

Who in their right mind would consider Morton a better pick than Myers?

 

[Old Campaigner]

Gumby and Myers are still young enough to have a decent career ahead of them if they can stay fit, they should be question marks as well imo.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

Especially if Dowler's still a chance to come good.

And who'd take Ellis over Ryder?

 

[rines]

2008:
Watts: Fail
Naitanui: Win
Hill: Win
Hartlett: Win
Hurley: QM
Yarran: Win
Rich: Win
Vickery: Win
Ziebell: Win
Davis: Win

8 Wins, 1 QM and 1 Fail

2009:
Obviously it is still too early for most of these.. but on 'seen' results..:

Scully: QM
Trengrove: Win
Martin: Win
Morabito: Win
Cunnington: Win
Rohan: Win (although time will tell after injury)
Sheppard: QM
Butcher: Fail (so far)
Moore: QM
Melksham: QM

5 wins, 4QM, 1 fail

I think 2010 is still too close to call...

So 60% seems about right for your figure of 'overall' recruiting success of top 10 picks.. and we are hitting less than 60% which just highlights...??

 

[rines]

Especially if Dowler's still a chance to come good.

And who'd take Ellis over Ryder?

Well depends on what you are looking for.. Ellis was tracking towards a 26 possession mid/wing/hff before injury struck.. has a raking kick and good footy sense.

I personally would take Ryder..

 

[HULK HOGAN]

On the question of % of success vs failure of top 10 picks:

2005:

Murphy: Win
Thomas: Win
Ellis: Win
Kennedy: Win
Pendlebury: Win
Dowler: Question Mark
Ryder: QM
JOH: Epic Fail
Clark: QM
Drum: Epic Fail

5 wins, 3 QM, 2 fails

2006:
Gibbs: Win
Gumbleton: Fail
Hansen: Win (according to NM board)
Leuenberger: Win
Boak: Win
Thorp: Fail
Selwood: Win
Reid: Win
Armitage: Win
Brown: Win

8 wins, 2 fails

2007:
Kreuzer: Win (according to Carlscum fans.. although I would say QM)
Cotchin: Win
Masten: Win
Morton: QM
Grant: Fail
Myers: Fail
Palmer: QM
Henderson: QM
McEvoy: Win
Dangerfield: Win

5 wins, 3 QM and 2 fails

With all due respect Rines some of these players with ticks are nowhere near Ryder.

 

[Ben the Gooner]

2008:
Watts: Fail
Naitanui: Win
Hill: Win
Hartlett: Win
Hurley: QM
Yarran: Win
Rich: Win
Vickery: Win
Ziebell: Win
Davis: Win
8 Wins, 1 QM and 1 Fail

Ah well played, you got me. Sucked in.

 

[Old Campaigner]

2008:
Watts: Fail
Naitanui: Win
Hill: Win
Hartlett: Win
Hurley: QM
Yarran: Win
Rich: Win
Vickery: Win
Ziebell: Win
Davis: Win

8 Wins, 1 QM and 1 Fail

2009:
Obviously it is still too early for most of these.. but on 'seen' results..:

Scully: QM
Trengrove: Win
Martin: Win
Morabito: Win
Cunnington: Win
Rohan: Win (although time will tell after injury)
Sheppard: QM
Butcher: Fail (so far)
Moore: QM
Melksham: QM

5 wins, 4QM, 1 fail

I think 2010 is still too close to call...

So 60% seems about right for your figure of 'overall' recruiting success of top 10 picks.. and we are hitting less than 60% which just highlights...??

Morabito is a win? For his surgeon maybe. We have no idea how each club drafted until each player has retired and we can look back of all their careers and compare them properly. What if Melksham suffers a career ending injury tomorrow? Is he still a win? What if Watts improves this year and wins the Bownlow? Is he still a fail?

 

[daz17]

Vickery?!?!??

 

[rines]

lol.. nothing like throwing it out there BTG..

clearly vickery is QM.. and I would go back to my original original post about Ryder.. and that is that he probably gets the nod as a 'win' because there is no-one around him that I would rather have... and that is fact.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

There's some weird cognitive dissonance going on if you rate Gumbles and Myers fails, largely on the basis of their injury records, but their fellow recovery room occupants Menzel and Morabito as wins, presumably based on potential.

 

[Doss]

There's some weird cognitive dissonance going on if you rate Gumbles and Myers fails, largely on the basis of their injury records, but their fellow recovery room occupants Menzel and Morabito as wins, presumably based on potential.

Add Ellis to that, too.

 

[Donakebab]

When you have Dowler as a question mark when he was de-listed at the end of the 2010, a season in which he played zero games for a career total of 16, it's pretty clear you don't know shit.

How exactly is a dud like that ranked the same as a player like Ryder who has notched up 132 games and would get a game in any side in the league?

 

[rines]

Yes.. but I rate the 'potential' of players differently to others.. and that is the great thing about player comparison.. and discussion.. no one is 'right' or 'wrong' but somewhere in the middle...

I think Ellis, Menzel and Morabito have all shown more 'exposed' talent and consistency than either Myers or Gumby even when they are fit.

It really comes down to the fact that I don't rate Myers at all and Gumby, unlike the other 3 names mentioned, was a top 5 draft pick that has not managed to string together enough games to demonstrate any growth/development or suggestions that he could, at top flight, be a best 22 player.

Lets face it.. most of us are now considering that EVEN IF gumby comes 'good' this season injury wise.. it could be difficult for him to push past Crameri, Hurley, Hooker, Carlisle, Pears, Ryder, Bellchambers, Hille, (JD), Fletcher for a 'tall' spot in the team.. considering that in modern footy I really don't think you can carry more than 6-7 'talls' into a game.

 

[lamaros]

Needed a bit of entertainment - thanks.

Ellis: Win And you would suggest Myers is a failure? Massive lols.
Dowler: Question Mark Good one!
Armitage: Win Averaged 15 touches and had played 50 games after his 5th season. More games and less output... oh, and he hadn't had the same injury troubles either...
Masten: Win Was a massive fail only one year ago, now a sure win? Good drugs...
Morton: QM Hilarious.
Palmer: QM Wait, you're doing it again...

Good lols to be had, thread keeps delivering.

 

[rines]

Lol..

Fire Starter..

You guys are good for a laugh..

 

[bombermick]

Morton? Is that the same guy whose most famous moment on a footy field is running away from a ruck?

Apart from that ticks and fails is way too simplistic, otherwise Pendlebury and Hansen get the same rating.

 

[Doss]

rines, I find it impossible to arrive at any conclusion other than that you apply a different set of standards to Essendon players compared to players from other clubs.

Looking at players drafted the same year:

2008- Hurley a QM, yet....Hartlett, Yarran, Vickery and Ziebell as wins? No way, Jose. None of them have actually achieved any more than Hurley so far. And in the case of Vickery, way less so.

2006- Hansen a win? No, no and no. Armitage a win? Not yet. Even Gibbs as a win...he's been a little underwhelming so far, needs to be a whole lot harder. Not an unequivocal success yet.

2005- Ryder a QM, yet Ellis a win? What?

2009- Melksham a QM (which is fair enough), yet Cunnington a win? He's played one good half season in three years- too premature. Rohan a win? Not yet. Morabito a win? The guy's played one season effectively, and hasn't played a game since 2010. How about we wait and see how he goes when/if he returns before we go giving him a tick. Similar with Menzel.

2007- Cale Morton a QM but Myers a fail? That is absurd.


You are being way too harsh, and frankly, you are also applying double and quite contradictory standards.

 

[fishardansin]

You don't get it - Ryder was selected at pick 7 in 2005 - he was the first ruck selected - When you pick rucks early you want them to become dominant in their position - Ryder has yet to prove that he is dominant - He still has time.

Ryder hasn't pulled his finger out yet. However, if he was to magically start playing with 100% intensity he could become one of the best few players, of any player, in the league.

Even on cruise mode he is a VERY good player.

I still have faith that he'll get it all together and tear the comp apart. Hopefully while Watson and Goddard are still capable.

 

[fishardansin]

*Laycock - Lazy, didn't make it.
***Winderlich - Quality player, injuries have robbed him of most of his career.
*****Stanton - Possibly the best pick in his draft year.
**Bradley - Was a dud draft year, hindsight doesn't change the fact he was a reasonable choice where he was.
***Monfries - Value for his pick, never a star but a genuine player for a long time.
****Ryder - Top top ruckman in the league, still got a lot of scope to get better. Underage pick.
inj.**Gumby - Injured, still might back a miracle comeback.
inj.***Myers - Injured, still clearly a best 22 player for us, young enough to be too soon to say.
****Hurley - Quality player, like Ryder, with scope still. Wrist injury hasn't helped him.
***Melksham - Too young to call yet, coaches rate him very highly and so do I.
*****Heppell - Star already.

Kavanagh - Too soon to say.
Daniher - Too soon to say.

Of all the first round draft picks we've had only Laycock still isn't playing AFL. Only Bradley and Monfries still aren't on our list. Stanton, Ryder, Hurley, Heppell are genuine top drawer picks.

Considering how other clubs have gone with similar picks I'd say we've done pretty well indeed, apart from the luck with injuries.

Stanton is an elite work horse, if that makes sense. Gumby and Winderlich have just had bad luck. Monfries and Melksham were/are meh, probably never going to be stars but solid picks and even your first round will get some of them. Bradley was a dud. Laycock was very much injured too, obviously could have been more with a better attitude but who knows how that would have gone if his body allowed him to play.

I still have faith in Myers becoming a VERY good player, Heppell is a star and I think Ryder could be the best in the league if he gets it all right. Hurley will tear the game apart many times in his career. Kavanagh was pick 19 and after is injury in u18s needs extra time. If Daniher body allows him he will be unstopable.

I like our hit rate. I also like the balance of players chosen. We potentially have the best ruck, three midfield stars, the best KPF and the best KPD in that lot. If they can all hit high levels while Watson and Goddard are still up there this list can really go places.

 

[lamaros]

The mere fact that Bradley is still on an AFL list makes him a star from that draft. Most are long gone.