Drafting Tall Fowards Outside the First Round

[DustinsGuns]

Is it a waste of time to draft a tall/KP forward out of the first round or even say top 10?

It seems like it's almost as safe as houses that of you draft a tall forward later than this, they simply won't make it.

Guys like Franklin, Roughead, Patton, Pavlich, Riewoldt (x2), Danniher, Hogan, T Lynch (x2) were all top 15 picks and then there are players like Hawkins, Cloke and Walker who would have all gone top 10 in their drafts if not for scholarship picks and father sons.

Even a lot of journey men or unestablished tall forwards like Vickery, Jones and Watts are very all high picks. And the best young tall forwards running around in Weitering and Moore are high picks too. There are some outliers in Gunston, Westoff and I'm sure a couple of others I've missed

Has recruiting tall forwards become the most exact science in drafting and is it a waste of time picking a key position forward outside the first round?

 

[bradburygold]

Its simple mate: is the kid tall? Did he kick lots of goals as a junior?

If the answer is NO to either it makes it very unlikely they will ever succeed as a tall fwd. other positions like ruck and defence, running off half back and kicking skills, can be learned.

So it makes it very hard for them to slip past pick 20.

Who was the last power forward to not have an excellent record as a junior? There are almost none

 

[cardje]

Ben Brown went a pick in the 40s and he's handy! But we grabbed him at 20 or so was a bit older. Generally yes either grab them young in first round or steal them from others

 

[captainMyCaptain]

That's pretty much the case with the only exceptions being guys like Lobb and Tippett who didn't really go thru traditional pathways for the most part and were both picked up as 2nd round selections.

 

[dlanod]

The leading goal kickers since 2013 fit into this pretty well, with a couple of exceptions:

First Round - Kennedy, Franklin, Daniher, Lynch, J. Riewoldt, Darling, N. Riewoldt, Roughead, Schulz, Pavlich
Concession - Cameron, Hawkins, Daniher, Dixon, Walker, Bruce, Hogan, Cloke
Exceptions - Sam Reid, Jenkins, Gunston, Tippett, Petrie

So unless your pick is a bit under-sized or a ruck-sized player that ends up a better forward, it's first round or bust.

 

[King Kunta]

Mitch McGovern at 43 looks the goods. They're harder to find no doubt but there's still gems outside the first round.

 

[Ambrosia]

Cale Hooker has been excellent up forward since moving there in 2015. He went pick 55 or so.

 

[Turbocat]

It happens but probably due to slow development or late start. Pods for instance or Jenkins. Generally the premium types stand out as young players and never escape attention. Occasionally a players slips for a perceived flaw like Darling.

 

[Silent Alarm]

I think the issue is that the media or local coaches will hype up and overrate anyone with passable skills if they're over 6'4. If someone is tall at a young age they don't even have to impose themselves – other kids will shirk the contest – so they can coast by. Even drafting a tall in the first round is still a lottery simply because they're hugely overhyped as kids.

 

[pinot]

Hasnt worked out for the Blues drafting quality talls outside round 1 -- but Patrick Kerr something about him so time will tell if we break our horrid trend

 

[Some Idiot]

Its simple mate: is the kid tall? Did he kick lots of goals as a junior?

If the answer is NO to either it makes it very unlikely they will ever succeed as a tall fwd. other positions like ruck and defence, running off half back and kicking skills, can be learned.

So it makes it very hard for them to slip past pick 20.

Who was the last power forward to not have an excellent record as a junior? There are almost none

You think?

 

[eastfreo75]

I think the issue is that the media or local coaches will hype up and overrate anyone with passable skills if they're over 6'4. If someone is tall at a young age they don't even have to impose themselves – other kids will shirk the contest – so they can coast by. Even drafting a tall in the first round is still a lottery simply because they're hugely overhyped as kids.

like who?

 

[Silent Alarm]

like who?

A classic was Josh Bootsma.

As a kid, he was never anything special. His younger brother was really really short and wasn't really any good. Obviously Josh was tall and rakey but he was never rated nor notable. His old man and whatever else helped him to get to South Fremantle but (as he was in the zone) Claremont didn't give many shits about him. He slipped into the backline of the best colts team in the WAFL and in his half a dozen games barely conceded a goal.

So on paper he was barely having a goal kicked on him, was tall, and had some okay skills.

Dickhead Mike Sheahan went typical AFL draftee sycophant/hyperbole-trotter and was saying how he was the next Dustin Fletcher. Which was insane. They were both tall, skinny, gawky, and played centre half back. That was it. Fletcher had played about 300, 350 games at that point as well. It was an insult.

He got drafted to Carlton at pick 21 and I was shocked. Crazy. I told the Blues board he was nothing special (tried to be half complimentary) and they all had a go at me and said I was jealous Freo didn't get there first. About two years later he was outed as bad and became a competition wide joke. He was never as bad as anyone said but he was by no means worth a pick that high and he probably didn't deserve to be drafted at all. The guy couldn't hack the pressure or the lifestyle and towards the end he was resenting being a professional footballer at a big club and was actively trying to get out of playing (ala his beach trip when he said he was sick, up on the Gold Coast, with his girlfriend).

It happens a lot. Anyone who has played with a few guys who didn't get drafted/did and should not have has seen this. Or, anyone who isn't a total suckhole.

I think it's Charlie Curnow. Is he from Geelong? The one at Carlton. About two years ago he was barely playing the game and a year ago was a no one. One article gets written and because he's tall he ends up that high in the draft. Maybe it's an Ed or something. But the point remains. This comes from two people from the Geelong Falcons TAC team.

 

[class78]

I think the issue is that the media or local coaches will hype up and overrate anyone with passable skills if they're over 6'4. If someone is tall at a young age they don't even have to impose themselves – other kids will shirk the contest – so they can coast by. Even drafting a tall in the first round is still a lottery simply because they're hugely overhyped as kids.

see lewis young as a prime example of the 'jeez he was playing basketball 4 years ago so now he's going to be a dean cox/buddy franklin hybrid' overhyped junior.

 

[bradburygold]

You think?

I did say its a simple question!