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Scodog10

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Jul 25, 2008
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I did actually say that we all need to determine how rewarding his posts are vs the self promotion side of things.

I have no doubt how the vast majority of readers think, we love him and we will welcome and go to his stuff with great anticipation.
He's better than any of the other phantom draft posters for instance.
He's not always right but he doesn't claim to be as far as I know.

He would have let Josh D go though, I think, from a Hine sight / hind site article!!!
I hope I remembered that one right.

But I'm happy still with Hine in that if you look at every first round selection he has had since 2005 - he's hardly missed.
I don't recall the 2013 draft.
He is a bit spineless though (sic)!

But, as we all know,
List management has been the great stuff up and that no one will take ownership of it.
Same people that were running Hotel quarantine is my guess.
To clarify. I don’t disagree with what you posted I only think it’s unfair to speculate in the context of the Collingwood board. When Knight posts here I get the sense that he’s like the rest of us nuffies whereas his thread on the draft board is entirely different.

One point I wholeheartedly agree on is our list management. We have royally stuffed it and Knight is a prime example of how even very astute judges can get swept up in it. Only a thought, but perhaps it’s time we look externally for how we go about it and ignore footy heads? I’m thinking PHD’s in mathematics or economics who have no real sense of who is or isn’t a good footballer so they look only at factors like numbers and cultural fit.

Think former Wallaby Ben Darwin and the work he’s doing on team chemistry.
 

sr36

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To clarify. I don’t disagree with what you posted I only think it’s unfair to speculate in the context of the Collingwood board. When Knight posts here I get the sense that he’s like the rest of us nuffies whereas his thread on the draft board is entirely different.

One point I wholeheartedly agree on is our list management. We have royally stuffed it and Knight is a prime example of how even very astute judges can get swept up in it. Only a thought, but perhaps it’s time we look externally for how we go about it and ignore footy heads? I’m thinking PHD’s in mathematics or economics who have no real sense of who is or isn’t a good footballer so they look only at factors like numbers and cultural fit.

Think former Wallaby Ben Darwin and the work he’s doing on team chemistry.
It's a dangerous time for list management. With the AFL tendency to copy what the current Premiers are doing. I think paying enormous money to your top few is really flawed, but the Tigers have pulled it off because they have just drafted so well recently that when they lose players because they can't afford to give pay rises to players who improve, they've been able to replace them in the team with cheap recent draftees.
 

sideswipe

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It's a dangerous time for list management. With the AFL tendency to copy what the current Premiers are doing. I think paying enormous money to your top few is really flawed, but the Tigers have pulled it off because they have just drafted so well recently that when they lose players because they can't afford to give pay rises to players who improve, they've been able to replace them in the team with cheap recent draftees.
Whilst at the time it seemed devastating, the early retirement of Rance must have ended up as a huge bonus in terms of freeing up cap space for others.
 

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Scodog10

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It's a dangerous time for list management. With the AFL tendency to copy what the current Premiers are doing. I think paying enormous money to your top few is really flawed, but the Tigers have pulled it off because they have just drafted so well recently that when they lose players because they can't afford to give pay rises to players who improve, they've been able to replace them in the team with cheap recent draftees.
Spot on. My read is that clubs over the next few years will need to confront the old school mentality of keeping them all. St Kilda, the Bulldogs and Carlton are the ones I’d be targeting as clubs with good players come off contract. You know their mentality will be “we have to keep the group together” so you target the likes of King, Clark, Mackay, Cripps, Bont and Smith knowing full well you won’t get them, but they skew their cap in the process and others spill out. Clubs need to get smarter about spilling guys out and as Sidey pointed out Rance retiring probably saved the Tigers cap...
 

pablo disco bar

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Might also have added Jarryd Lyons for a late pick rather than spending two first rounders for Dayne Beams? I was strong at the time, spending as much as one first round pick is irresponsible for someone of Beams' durability, at his age and with his mental health issues.

Who would have guessed Jarryd Lyons as what eventually would turn out to be a delisted free agent would be more valuable than Beams?

On Lukosius though. I'd still cough up the trade chips required to get him, if indeed it was possible. He remains the player I would start a team with first, if I had the opportunity to start a team with any player in the competition. Would I give up Darcy Moore for Lukosius? Any day of the week I would!

Why would I give up Moore for Lukosius? And I spoke about this at length at the time. Availability is the best ability. Moore is a 25-year-old and has only once played 20 or more games in a season and he averages 14.83 games per season. That's a poor return for someone who has played on a team that has played a good amount of finals footy! It would have been nice to have Moore in that 2018 Grand Final wouldn't it? But when you have a guy with what at the time appeared to be persistent hamstring issues. Why pay up big money for that? I'd rather have someone I'm not only high conviction on, but won't cost as much from the salary cap and don't have any major injury concerns around (always has been the question with Moore and Elliott respectively where you can't rely on either of them to be available for 20+ games year on year).
Elliott of course at 15.375 isn't great either for games per season, and not surprisingly he's hurt again. *These games per season numbers don't include 2021 for fairness of analysis.

And of course that first round pick in 2018 wasn't needed given Quaynor was on his way and the club were committed to him and could match regardless.

This is the separating factor that people don't talk about enough. If you have the choice between two great players. Give me the guy who doesn't miss games (Lukosius has missed so far one senior game) and plays a style of game that is sustainable and suggests a very long time horizon for success. And with his skillset, he's a 15+ year player for the purposes of AFL play and should be a 300+ gamer. Am I taking that? Or following the end of 2018 something more like 150 games if we're lucky from Moore, maybe 100 games if we're really lucky from Elliott following 2018. And I'm seeing an equitable if not a favourable trade still by securing Lukosius, particularly given the longer time horizon and the opportunity cost that allows for other list positions to be filled with other pieces (who hopefully have superior durability to Moore and Elliott respectively).

Moving into today though.

If Moore has an All-Australian season this year, I'd more than happily flip him in a trade and cash in while his value is high.

Same goes with De Goey. If De Goey has an All-Australian season this year, I'd more than happily flip him also. 16.3 games per year? Not good enough either if he's expecting a high salary.

It would provide Collingwood with an incredible amount of salary cap space and allow Collingwood to build a best-22, rather than a best almost-15 able footballers if either/or/both were moved (assuming some level of competency through the trade period).

Elliott at this age/stage no longer offers meaningful trade value, so he's someone who you may as well retain, as at least when he's on the field he's around that 10-13 on list quality piece.
Very aggreseive moves...if it worked hailed a master if it failed all credibility would be lost .


Risks win premierships...


🥴🤔
 

Timmy from Thomastown

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On Lukosius though. I'd still cough up the trade chips required to get him, if indeed it was possible. He remains the player I would start a team with first, if I had the opportunity to start a team with any player in the competition. Would I give up Darcy Moore for Lukosius? Any day of the week I would!

Why would I give up Moore for Lukosius? And I spoke about this at length at the time. Availability is the best ability. Moore is a 25-year-old and has only once played 20 or more games in a season and he averages 14.83 games per season. That's a poor return for someone who has played on a team that has played a good amount of finals footy! It would have been nice to have Moore in that 2018 Grand Final wouldn't it? But when you have a guy with what at the time appeared to be persistent hamstring issues. Why pay up big money for that? I'd rather have someone I'm not only high conviction on, but won't cost as much from the salary cap and don't have any major injury concerns around (always has been the question with Moore and Elliott respectively where you can't rely on either of them to be available for 20+ games year on year).
Elliott of course at 15.375 isn't great either for games per season, and not surprisingly he's hurt again. *These games per season numbers don't include 2021 for fairness of analysis.

And of course that first round pick in 2018 wasn't needed given Quaynor was on his way and the club were committed to him and could match regardless.

This is the separating factor that people don't talk about enough. If you have the choice between two great players. Give me the guy who doesn't miss games (Lukosius has missed so far one senior game) and plays a style of game that is sustainable and suggests a very long time horizon for success. And with his skillset, he's a 15+ year player for the purposes of AFL play and should be a 300+ gamer. Am I taking that? Or following the end of 2018 something more like 150 games if we're lucky from Moore, maybe 100 games if we're really lucky from Elliott following 2018. And I'm seeing an equitable if not a favourable trade still by securing Lukosius, particularly given the longer time horizon and the opportunity cost that allows for other list positions to be filled with other pieces (who hopefully have superior durability to Moore and Elliott respectively).

Moving into today though.

If Moore has an All-Australian season this year, I'd more than happily flip him in a trade and cash in while his value is high.
Very harsh on Moore and you are severely over-exaggerating his injury record. He had one bad year (2018) and had a minor recurrence in 2019 but still managed 17 games, played finals, and hasnt had an injury since. In 2020 he won AA and is probably AA in 2021 if the team was selected today. Suggesting we trade a back-to-back All Australian for somebody who might turn out to be as good or even slightly better ir maybe not as good is quite frankly...madness. We'd want some serious gold plated steak knives for that trade to work.

Apart from 2018 it was only his debut season that Moore managed less than 17 games.

Or another way of looking at it.... Moore got injured in his fourth season. Lukosius has only played two.
 

Knightmare

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I did actually say that we all need to determine how rewarding his posts are vs the self promotion side of things.

I have no doubt how the vast majority of readers think, we love him and we will welcome and go to his stuff with great anticipation.
He's better than any of the other phantom draft posters for instance.
He's not always right but he doesn't claim to be as far as I know.

He would have let Josh D go though, I think, from a Hine sight / hind site article!!!
I hope I remembered that one right.

But I'm happy still with Hine in that if you look at every first round selection he has had since 2005 - he's hardly missed.
I don't recall the 2013 draft.
He is a bit spineless though (sic)!

But, as we all know,
List management has been the great stuff up and that no one will take ownership of it.
Same people that were running Hotel quarantine is my guess.
I indeed would have let Daicos go through at the time (in hindsight with his breakout 2020 he's someone you'd want - and I'll add on top of that my suggestion at the end of 2019 which I'm sure I've mentioned somewhere online to delist Daicos, having not to that point shown much in the way of signs of life before what for a sub 180cm player was a shock fourth year breakout season last year). I thought at the time of the draft that Daicos was soft and didn't think he'd make the grade. I would also have let Callum Brown, Tyler Brown, Quaynor, Kelly and Atu go into the draft, not rating them relative to their draft positions. It was a simple case of I saw others available at their picks I rated more highly at the time. And having not had an interest in going for any of them, it would have enabled greater trading flexibility and also getting into parts of the draft I would have liked to maximise value of each pick. It's a personal preference thing, but I like as much flexibility as possible both through the trade period and during the draft. In a lot of ways, having the obligation to take NGA and F/S guys can do more harm than good, particularly if the discount is negligable and they're not clear-cut best availables at their picks.

*Quaynor looks like a ripper and of the others maybe Kelly given he's a late bloomer and may have some development to come still could also prove me wrong. The others I remain a skeptic on though until/unless they have a Daicos level breakout year.

On list management though. Collingwood's have been the worst since Carlton's 2010-2014. From trading, to salary cap management. It has been embarrassing. The only element I can't be critical of from a list perspective is drafting, and that's mostly because the club haven't had the early picks to take anyone much outside of the father-son and NGA processes. Collingwood really need to learn from those mistakes and move forward from them.

Very aggreseive moves...if it worked hailed a master if it failed all credibility would be lost .

Risks win premierships...

🥴🤔
When going as bold as I did with my suggestion around a move for Lukosius you have to know the talent and be high conviction in the talent. Otherwise you simply can put so many valuable assets forward in a trade offer.

As a talent, I'm certainly right in my assessment with Lukosius on quality - or at least I believe, albeit his talent has manifested into a different position than expected. The component of the equation that has surprised me since 2018 is Moore - with his availability better than it was at the time of my original analysis (an average of 13.5 games over those first four seasons) and having grave concerns about his hamstrings.

Elliott also since 2018 has been healthier than his career average, which typically as you go deeper into careers doesn't occur, but he is hurt again, so maybe he reverts back to the mean.

The curious point of discussion on my proposed trade of the time is, had Moore and Elliott been moved, how much more salary cap space would we have had to play with? And no Beams on top of that with Lyons in his place? The salary cap stress might have been relieved. Could that have meant Treloar, Stephenson and Phillips may have been retainable with no need for the fire sale we had last offseason where the club got taken advantage of? And/or if still offered up for trade due to Buckley not wanting them on his team anymore - at least I would imagine the club wouldn't be bent over at the trade table and as a result attract a more equitable return, as there is less stress in moving them on.

Very harsh on Moore and you are severely over-exaggerating his injury record. He had one bad year (2018) and had a minor recurrence in 2019 but still managed 17 games, played finals, and hasnt had an injury since. In 2020 he won AA and is probably AA in 2021 if the team was selected today. Suggesting we trade a back-to-back All Australian for somebody who might turn out to be as good or even slightly better ir maybe not as good is quite frankly...madness. We'd want some serious gold plated steak knives for that trade to work.

Apart from 2018 it was only his debut season that Moore managed less than 17 games.

Or another way of looking at it.... Moore got injured in his fourth season. Lukosius has only played two.
I'm no doctor, but having seen re-occurring hamstrings with Freeman, I was fearful for Moore's future at that time. I'm glad it's gone at least to this point the way it has, but I do remain somewhat fearful he'll have another hamstring issue at any time having seen him pull out of games enough time with it.

As per my earlier post, Moore is playing to a best on list standard. So he's killing it right now. His value will never be higher than it is at this point. Just flying for and intercepting everything. So he's obviously an asset. I do still worry he'll do another hammy though, so if the offer was right - and a Lukosius for me would be that right offer, I'd pull the trigger on a deal.

The opportunity cost in hindsight would be the following. Moore while he's good (Collingwood not in window). Or get someone for the longer term in Lukosius who you can build a long term core group around. By retaining both Moore and Elliott there is a salary cap hit in doing so. By them moving, space opens up to sign other talents, and it may have meant the retention of Treloar/Phillips/Stephenson could have been possible - or if, and as people know well I'm a fan of all three, the club were desperate to get rid of all three, at least you'd assume a better return would be possible as Collingwood's salary cap situation wouldn't be as dire.
 

Markfs

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i watched the gold coast game last week or most of it. Lukosius seems to hang out on the other side of the ground and wait until his mates win the ball. I was told that he was a great kick but I saw him blast it downfield to opposition players on a number of occasions. He's young. If we ever recruited him, I hope we recruit players who can get the ball... but i dont know anything about footy.
 

sr36

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Very harsh on Moore and you are severely over-exaggerating his injury record. He had one bad year (2018) and had a minor recurrence in 2019 but still managed 17 games, played finals, and hasnt had an injury since. In 2020 he won AA and is probably AA in 2021 if the team was selected today. Suggesting we trade a back-to-back All Australian for somebody who might turn out to be as good or even slightly better ir maybe not as good is quite frankly...madness. We'd want some serious gold plated steak knives for that trade to work.

Apart from 2018 it was only his debut season that Moore managed less than 17 games.

Or another way of looking at it.... Moore got injured in his fourth season. Lukosius has only played two.
His ceiling is nowhere near Moores ceiling.
 

Vicky Park

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Rantall bianco and Ruscoe won’t be on an Afl list in 3 years.
They may no longer be on a list before three years. That’s drafting for you, and disappointing if it happens. But it happens at all clubs.

TG, do you have any thoughts or suggestions as to who we should have drafted in place of those three?

I don’t, because I don’t have a clue about drafting. But it seems to be much easier in hindsight, when the players can be assessed post draft. Not sure why the club hasn’t furnished Derek Hine with a crystal ball to allow him to look into the future. Would certainly improve our drafting.
 

sr36

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They may no longer be on a list before three years. That’s drafting for you, and disappointing if it happens. But it happens at all clubs.

TG, do you have any thoughts or suggestions as to who we should have drafted in place of those three?

I don’t, because I don’t have a clue about drafting. But it seems to be much easier in hindsight, when the players can be assessed post draft. Not sure why the club hasn’t furnished Derek Hine with a crystal ball to allow him to look into the future. Would certainly improve our drafting.
THATSGOLD got it instead. It's why he can be so adamant on the future of kids he hasn't seen play.
 

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manicpie

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Does anyone know if this means that we can take an overage player midseason but he has the choice to nominate as a Next Gen come draft time. Are we able to keep them or is it only for this season?

"

Previously in 2019 when the Mid-Season Rookie Draft was reintroduced, overage prospects still involved in either Northern Academy or NGA programs could not nominate for the mid-season draft unless they cut all Academy ties.


That means the likes of Driscoll and Raak, among others, can this year elect to nominate for the Mid-Season Rookie Draft, where they could be recruited to any AFL club across the country, and still remain Academy-tied for November's NAB AFL Draft.
 

THATSGOLD

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They may no longer be on a list before three years. That’s drafting for you, and disappointing if it happens. But it happens at all clubs.

TG, do you have any thoughts or suggestions as to who we should have drafted in place of those three?

I don’t, because I don’t have a clue about drafting. But it seems to be much easier in hindsight, when the players can be assessed post draft. Not sure why the club hasn’t furnished Derek Hine with a crystal ball to allow him to look into the future. Would certainly improve our drafting.
Maybe if we hadn’t traded our first round picks for beams and Treloar we wouldn’t in such a mess with players like Rantall now.
 

SchuPie

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I just can’t work out what we’re doing with our selection bc our coaching / players are the same but we’re expecting different results
Someone summed it up in the autopsy thread - if we lost playing our kids, the mood would be completely different

Really happy with watch we did at the draft 2020 but the preceding years have hurt us badly - I’m angry about our first round picks (Beams / Treloar / Stevo) out the door

Make a play for a young gun forward like McDonald, rejuvenate the midfield, get some speed in F50
To do so, we’re going to have give something, so do it.
Do something
 

THATSGOLD

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Spot on.

I said the first 2 won't be on a list in 2 years copped some heat, perfect example of why we shouldn't get excited about this latest crop yet.
That’s what happens when you trade first round picks to get a washed up player like beams. It will hurt us long term and letting Treloar go for nothing after giving up the earth to get him in the first place.
 

sr36

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The way I see it Hine had a great first 6 years, a very mediocre next 6, which is why our depth is currently terrible. How the latest batch of a dozen unknowns develop over the next few years should decide whether or not we look elsewhere.
 

anshell

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I think Hine has had enough chances by now.It’s time to move him on,along with the rest of the football department.
 

anshell

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Just on Randall,why isn’t he getting a game by now?We’ve seen Bianco and Ruscoe,but Randall hasn’t even played in a pre season game as far as I know.He’s supposed to be a running machine isn’t?He’s been winning the time trials in the preseason,so why hasn’t he been given a go yet?He’s never even been named in the emergencies.It doesn’t augur well for his career prospects.
 

The Royal Sampler

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Just on Randall,why isn’t he getting a game by now?We’ve seen Bianco and Ruscoe,but Randall hasn’t even played in a pre season game as far as I know.He’s supposed to be a running machine isn’t?He’s been winning the time trials in the preseason,so why hasn’t he been given a go yet?He’s never even been named in the emergencies.It doesn’t augur well for his career prospects.
I don’t think there’ve been many games. Rantall apparently played in one of the VFL practice matches because he had some soreness afterwards and was limited in training a couple of days later.
 

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