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No SPIN

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 14, 2009
6,322
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Vic
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Collingwood
I've actually completed a video just last night covering my top-100 players from the 2016-2020 drafts. To give a spoiler, the Pies are the only club without a player I categorised as top-50 during that period of time. With a few of the past Pies who have moved inside my top-100 in Stephenson and Phillips, both of whom I still rate.

Through the draft, Collingwood's involvement has actually been minimal. Lots of F/S picks, lots of NGA picks. Lots of trading out of early picks. Nick Daicos who is coming through this year is another in that long line of picks that are chosen for us and means again minimal involvement expected again this offseason.

My understanding of Collingwood's recruiting department is that it's smaller in size than the vast majority of clubs which won't have helped with results and suggests to me Derek probably doesn't have enough support around him.

I'm not necessarily down on Collingwood's drafting as much as Collingwood's salary cap management and trading/free agency decisions - both in those coming and going. I see that as where Collingwood has gotten absolutely killed over this recent stretch of years. Be it the Beams trade (back in), Treloar trade (out), Stephenson (out), Phillips (out), Witts (out). I could go on, and did in my: The Fundamental List Management Mistakes Collingwood have made and need to learn from video.

My view with Collingwood's list at the present time is there are roughly 13 worthwhile best-22 players with the rest of the 22 consisting of guys I'd rather not have to see play in a given week. My hope is a lot of the youth helps with that and a few of those from the last two drafts come through and prove to be additional worthwhile pieces.

As a general strategy, as I feel clubs put too many resources into scouting the u18s, relative to rival talent and state league talent, I'd like to see a redistribution of resources. Absolutely know the early draft talent inside out and know who of those is best, use those those early picks, but from there late and rookie draft I see routinely value in mature agers, and I'm also seeing underutilised players on rival lists everywhere who could slot into Collingwood's best-22 along with many of others, without coming at any major cost. If you know how to find those guys, you can really quickly and at little cost to the salary cap or in terms of assets (picks/players) improve your list, and also do so not just over the short term, but also the medium and long term.
let’s hope Graham Wright makes some adjustments.
 

Scodog10

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Jul 25, 2008
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I like his write ups but he gets as many wrong as anyone else.
Darcy Moore + Jamie Elliott and 2018 1st for Jack Lukosious is one that will forever be etched in my memory bank. One thing I’ll say about Knight is that like an actual recruiter when he falls for what a player offers he falls ******* hard!!
 

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Apex36

Hall of Famer
Mar 26, 2014
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Sorry I'm going to pass in terms of looking it up. I was a Hine fan for a long time too, but:

Here's a very basic overview of 2012-2018. (Too early for the last two drafts.) Only looking at open draft not academy types.
Off the top of my head he had these picks 5,6,6,10,18,19,20 - a fair few in the 30s and a million late picks.
From that he got the following hits: Langers, Maynard, Phillips, JDG, Mihocek, Stepho, Grundy.

We've since lost 3 of them. There's the hole in our team right there - we currently have only 4 blokes that we drafted in the open draft over the years that should be the core of our team. Yes it's a very simple overview that doesn't factor in the strength of each draft year, or whether some of it was just bad luck, but I struggle to see how anyone can think we got value for our picks over that time frame.
That has absolutely nothing to do with drafting though. Don’t act as though the fact we’ve lost players through injury and poor cap management has something to do with Hines talent ID.
 

TradeDraft

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Oct 18, 2009
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That has absolutely nothing to do with drafting though. Don’t act as though the fact we’ve lost players through injury and poor cap management has something to do with Hines talent ID.
That has nothing to do with Hine. Though Hine was List Manager for awhile not sure IF he had anything to do with the Contracts we are talking about now. He has nothing to do with Injuries
 

Albert Parker

All Australian
Aug 17, 2018
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You are correct, he is not in the top 3 or 4 in the league, if he was we would have won more than one flag in his time. Actually, I thinkl he seems to be past his use by date well and truely.
I think measurement of a flag is a single, blunt instrument to measure a recruiters success.
We've been consistently one of the best performed teams in the past decade as measured by finals access and even wins.
I think that Wells at Geelong deserves his heady reputation but don't think there are too many who have proven more astute than Hine.
West Coast and Richmond have also been consistently good, although Richmond only in the past 5 years of that and have capitalised on their window.
By contrast, take a look at what SOS has done at GWS and Carlton and delivered with continual top 10 picks and the relative success of that.
 

Scodog10

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Jul 25, 2008
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Kinnear Beatson goes alright too Albert Parker
He does, but priority access to half of NSW is a bit of a leg up. It basically guarantees you a jet every second year. You get one of those then have a shitful year (like they did in 2020) and you bounce back pretty quickly. Dalrymple was the one I always thought was underrated. Bailey Smith aside he built that Bulldogs team and then went up to the Swans...
 

ToonAussie

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And??
What’s the problem with KM prompting his site?
Rhetorical I presume?

One needs to make your own mind up as to
whether KM's posts are a service to us or oppurtunistic self promotion
(or of course a bit of both).

Advertising works but the truth can be "blurred" / exagerated to get us there......!
 

No SPIN

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 14, 2009
6,322
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Rhetorical I presume?

One needs to make your own mind up as to
whether KM's posts are a service to us or oppurtunistic self promotion
(or of course a bit of both).

Advertising works but the truth can be "blurred" / exagerated to get us there......!
Really? KM is considered good enough to be contribute to ESPN so I think his competence on the issue is established.
Not sure why you have a problem with him trying to make a living.
 

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Knightmare

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Sep 22, 2010
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Darcy Moore + Jamie Elliott and 2018 1st for Jack Lukosious is one that will forever be etched in my memory bank. One thing I’ll say about Knight is that like an actual recruiter when he falls for what a player offers he falls ******* hard!!
Might also have added Jarryd Lyons for a late pick rather than spending two first rounders for Dayne Beams? I was strong at the time, spending as much as one first round pick is irresponsible for someone of Beams' durability, at his age and with his mental health issues.

Who would have guessed Jarryd Lyons as what eventually would turn out to be a delisted free agent would be more valuable than Beams?

On Lukosius though. I'd still cough up the trade chips required to get him, if indeed it was possible. He remains the player I would start a team with first, if I had the opportunity to start a team with any player in the competition. Would I give up Darcy Moore for Lukosius? Any day of the week I would!

Why would I give up Moore for Lukosius? And I spoke about this at length at the time. Availability is the best ability. Moore is a 25-year-old and has only once played 20 or more games in a season and he averages 14.83 games per season. That's a poor return for someone who has played on a team that has played a good amount of finals footy! It would have been nice to have Moore in that 2018 Grand Final wouldn't it? But when you have a guy with what at the time appeared to be persistent hamstring issues. Why pay up big money for that? I'd rather have someone I'm not only high conviction on, but won't cost as much from the salary cap and don't have any major injury concerns around (always has been the question with Moore and Elliott respectively where you can't rely on either of them to be available for 20+ games year on year).
Elliott of course at 15.375 isn't great either for games per season, and not surprisingly he's hurt again. *These games per season numbers don't include 2021 for fairness of analysis.

And of course that first round pick in 2018 wasn't needed given Quaynor was on his way and the club were committed to him and could match regardless.

This is the separating factor that people don't talk about enough. If you have the choice between two great players. Give me the guy who doesn't miss games (Lukosius has missed so far one senior game) and plays a style of game that is sustainable and suggests a very long time horizon for success. And with his skillset, he's a 15+ year player for the purposes of AFL play and should be a 300+ gamer. Am I taking that? Or following the end of 2018 something more like 150 games if we're lucky from Moore, maybe 100 games if we're really lucky from Elliott following 2018. And I'm seeing an equitable if not a favourable trade still by securing Lukosius, particularly given the longer time horizon and the opportunity cost that allows for other list positions to be filled with other pieces (who hopefully have superior durability to Moore and Elliott respectively).

Moving into today though.

If Moore has an All-Australian season this year, I'd more than happily flip him in a trade and cash in while his value is high.

Same goes with De Goey. If De Goey has an All-Australian season this year, I'd more than happily flip him also. 16.3 games per year? Not good enough either if he's expecting a high salary.

It would provide Collingwood with an incredible amount of salary cap space and allow Collingwood to build a best-22, rather than a best almost-15 able footballers if either/or/both were moved (assuming some level of competency through the trade period).

Elliott at this age/stage no longer offers meaningful trade value, so he's someone who you may as well retain, as at least when he's on the field he's around that 10-13 on list quality piece.
 

Scodog10

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Jul 25, 2008
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Rhetorical I presume?

One needs to make your own mind up as to
whether KM's posts are a service to us or oppurtunistic self promotion
(or of course a bit of both).

Advertising works but the truth can be "blurred" / exagerated to get us there......!
I agree with the gist of your thoughts in the sense of employment with the club, but this is unfair in terms of self promotion. Knight puts in more work than anyone that’s ever posted on this site. Yeah I am critical of his list management stuff (I mean the above is just wrong), but the junior talent ID is an entirely different story and he posts on our board in a very different capacity to the draft board.
 

Knightmare

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Sep 22, 2010
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Knightmare as with most of your list management stuff you were wrong own it. The one you’ve gotten right was Lyons.
That's a bold claim to suggest 'most of my list management stuff is wrong.'

I trust with such a statement you will be coming armed with substantial evidence - examples littered through each year given I have been posting on here since 2009 with all of my opinions and thoughts in the public domain since then. A statement is empty words until it comes with adequate supporting evidence. I would be not only totally flawed but completely embarrassed if the totality of my trade/free agent/list management thoughts turned out to be as poor as what we've seen from Collingwood these past five seasons.

Your comment inspires the idea for me to do such an analysis on my YouTube going through my posting history on here, Twitter, YouTube and ESPN to count up those good and bad calls respectively. As per my draft analysis video where I went through all those biggest wins and losses, I'm more than happy to keep myself accountable and call out any misses in going through my various trade/free agent/list management ideas. It's a worthwhile reflecting, learning and development opportunity for me, and hopefully I can pass on some of those lessons to others while I'm at it as to what I've picked up over the years.

I might save such a video for the offseason when I have some time on my hands and will have good fun with it, as it's always fun going through the various hits and misses over time.

It also doesn't sounds like you don't watch much if any Gold Coast if you're not a vocal fan of Lukosius, and it's surprising to hear anyone to any extent righting him off. He was #2 in the competition for metres gained last year during the H+A season and he did that as a tall in his second year! That's unheard of! He has a case from marks/kickouts/frees to have among if not THE best kick in the competition. He's even more advanced for his age than I had predicted, albeit playing a different role/position to expected. His development has been rapid, and as I said before, and I might be on my own for valuing it, but I'll maintain this position availability is the best ability. And is the separating factor for stars. Assuming continued durability from Lukosius, and Moore averaging roughly the same number of games he has in his career to date, Lukosius will have by far the superior career. That's not to suggest Moore isn't special and playing I'd even argue best on list standard footy to open this season, but Lukosius needs to be watched in his own right. He's an A+ tier special tall by any measure. I'm not at all disappointed by his AFL play to date and continue to feel good about how I valued him in 2018 at the time of his draft. If I was to have a critique, I'd like for his marking to become stronger and if he's to play in defence for his intercept marking to ramp up a gear, but with the way he reads the game, I think that will all come.
 

Markfs

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Nov 13, 2008
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Margot Robbie's Shaving Team...
i was watching the coasters and i checked out liam ryan who went at pick 26 and then i saw above him was oscar allen at 21 or something close...

now that's what i call drafting.. both would go top 5 now
 

Albert Parker

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Aug 17, 2018
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He does, but priority access to half of NSW is a bit of a leg up. It basically guarantees you a jet every second year. You get one of those then have a shitful year (like they did in 2020) and you bounce back pretty quickly. Dalrymple was the one I always thought was underrated. Bailey Smith aside he built that Bulldogs team and then went up to the Swans...
Agreed. Would be nice to have access to Heeney, Mills, Blakey, Campbell, Gulden - the pick of NSW talent every year. Massive leg up
Fell down the ladder and now have access to Logan McDonald before picking up the pick of the NSW boys. (North looks to have screwed up taking Phillips who is a dime a dozen small mid with questionable skills.)

I also think they bet the house on Buddy and that has weakened them. But they did that while thinking they had more money to play with than all Melbourne clubs, which was also a massive advantage. I think the AFL has generally been favourably disposed toward making them a success and they probably shot themselves in the foot with that move as the AFL wanted GWS to land him.

But he's also done well picking up guys like Papley in the rookie draft. Mike Pyke as an International.
Passed over Josh Dunkley, who is an ugly kick, but is a great size, knows how to get the ball and seems a solid citizen.
 

sr36

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Aug 20, 2009
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That has absolutely nothing to do with drafting though. Don’t act as though the fact we’ve lost players through injury and poor cap management has something to do with Hines talent ID.
Only having had 7-8 hits in the open draft since 2010 does though - and I'm not setting the bar particularly high.
 

Apex36

Hall of Famer
Mar 26, 2014
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Agreed. Would be nice to have access to Heeney, Mills, Blakey, Campbell, Gulden - the pick of NSW talent every year. Massive leg up
Fell down the ladder and now have access to Logan McDonald before picking up the pick of the NSW boys. (North looks to have screwed up taking Phillips who is a dime a dozen small mid with questionable skills.)

I also think they bet the house on Buddy and that has weakened them. But they did that while thinking they had more money to play with than all Melbourne clubs, which was also a massive advantage. I think the AFL has generally been favourably disposed toward making them a success and they probably shot themselves in the foot with that move as the AFL wanted GWS to land him.

But he's also done well picking up guys like Papley in the rookie draft. Mike Pyke as an International.
Passed over Josh Dunkley, who is an ugly kick, but is a great size, knows how to get the ball and seems a solid citizen.
Sydney only passed on Dunkley because he asked them to. He only nominated as a FS for them to avoid going to another interstate club if they bid. The agreement with them was they would pass if a vic club bid. It was borderline draft tampering.
 

ToonAussie

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I agree with the gist of your thoughts in the sense of employment with the club, but this is unfair in terms of self promotion. Knight puts in more work than anyone that’s ever posted on this site. Yeah I am critical of his list management stuff (I mean the above is just wrong), but the junior talent ID is an entirely different story and he posts on our board in a very different capacity to the draft board.

I did actually say that we all need to determine how rewarding his posts are vs the self promotion side of things.

I have no doubt how the vast majority of readers think, we love him and we will welcome and go to his stuff with great anticipation.
He's better than any of the other phantom draft posters for instance.
He's not always right but he doesn't claim to be as far as I know.

He would have let Josh D go though, I think, from a Hine sight / hind site article!!!
I hope I remembered that one right.

But I'm happy still with Hine in that if you look at every first round selection he has had since 2005 - he's hardly missed.
I don't recall the 2013 draft.
He is a bit spineless though (sic)!

But, as we all know,
List management has been the great stuff up and that no one will take ownership of it.
Same people that were running Hotel quarantine is my guess.
 

Billys Back

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Feb 5, 2020
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I doubt Lukoscious would cost anything other than a straight swap for Moore today (not that I would trade him).

I think at the time KM has a point. But fast forward and over the past 2 years, Moore now seems to have been injury free playing most games the past 2 years.

I would consider DeGoey for Lukoscious though
 

legendstatus

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 19, 2011
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Sometimes you get seduced with highlights etc but reckon I’ve had more right than wrong, problem is we’ve never been in a real great position to pick them up

I was so keen on Bont but Dogs just in front of us

The one that hurt me was Bolta, should have snapped him up

A while back I had 2MP in front of JDG but so did many, only because we needed a tall KPP ( we still do amazing )

Let’s hope the first 5 this year make up for the rubbish over the last 6-7 years


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