DT 2011 Backs Thread

[Wheedus]

Jolldos right, his price might rise a little but nothing special and not worth it.

However if he is to avg maybe 70 each week or 75 than his price will start to rise a fair bit.

Remember the magic number (if there is such a thing) doesnt drop to much. IIRC its about 4152 this year, so it might at around R6 or R8 still be around 3900 or 4000 still. NP people would have a better idea on this as they have followed it over the past few years, But thats a fairly accurate guestimate i think.

So by round 8 lets say he avgs 70 and the magic number is 4000 than he would be around 280k at that time. Thats a 43k gain.

However players like Harris for example is priced at something like 28.5 IIRC. So by round 8 assuming MN is 4000 aswell and he is avg 70 than he will be at around 280k making a massive climb in price of his 115k starting price. I think thats sort of how it works, obviousily this is assuming these players score 70 each week and that wont happen and the calculations would be off a bit, but just trying to give a general guide.

Dogs,Tarquin or Walesy could explain it alot better

The MN is real - just ask Dr Dream Team - even he (sort of) gets it now. It's just not the best way to understand the price fluctuations. It's all about the total value of all players - that number never changes from week to week. It was approx $160million a couple of years back. Haven't bothered to work it out this year but it's easy enough to do if you can be bothered dumping every players price into a spreadsheet. As Jolldo said, as new players increase their average from what they're priced at, they eat into the total cash pool. The money has to come from somewhere so established players with realistic prices based on actual averages suffer. This is the reason why pricing a rook at a 27 avg skews everything. Also the reason why Guns & Rooks works so well.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

What are your thoughts on Sidebottom & Shuey from the mid price mids?

Yeah i was going to add Sidebottom and Mclean and Foley aswell (more and more just came to my head). But i actually think Sidebottom is the best one of the lost. I can see him reaching keeper or 6th best mid status. He could avg 100-105 IMO.

Super DTer and would never get attention next year, suits the collingwood better than any other play just about. Will be used alot more guts next year with new rule, so add plenty of midfield time into him, as well as his ability to play off hbf or forward. For me he is going to be one of those players (C.Cornes, Goddard, Swan, Ablett, Cox) players that are going to be must haves in 2 years time every year.

Im actually strongly going a little midprice option with my 4th mid so i can fit in 2 premium rucks, 4 prem backs and 5 prem forwards. Because i cant do that at the moment with 2 prem rucks instead of one prem and one midpricer.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

The MN is real - just ask Dr Dream Team - even he (sort of) gets it now. It's just not the best way to understand the price fluctuations. It's all about the total value of all players - that number never changes from week to week. It was approx $160million a couple of years back. Haven't bothered to work it out this year but it's easy enough to do if you can be bothered dumping every players price into a spreadsheet. As Jolldo said, as new players increase their average from what they're priced at, they eat into the total cash pool. The money has to come from somewhere so established players with realistic prices based on actual averages suffer. This is the reason why pricing a rook at a 27 avg skews everything. Also the reason why Guns & Rooks works so well.

Great post and well said.

Yeh i like that last comment im still trying to get persuaded into this whole guns rookie but i like my theory so far as its back up by numbers.

Like is a rookie priced at 27 that avgs 42 going to go up in price the same as a 65 avg player who avgs 80? I think that answer is no??? not sure but.

assuming MN drops to 4000
112 100 (27) avgs (42) = 168 000

As to

269 900 (65) avgs (80) = 320 000

did i get that right, really need an experienced dter to tell us more about it and explain it well, but as i showed sort of, i think the cheaper players rise in more money even if they increase there avg by the same compared to more expensive players.

 

[KruZin]

Yeah i was going to add Sidebottom and Mclean and Foley aswell (more and more just came to my head). But i actually think Sidebottom is the best one of the lost. I can see him reaching keeper or 6th best mid status. He could avg 100-105 IMO.

Super DTer and would never get attention next year, suits the collingwood better than any other play just about. Will be used alot more guts next year with new rule, so add plenty of midfield time into him, as well as his ability to play off hbf or forward. For me he is going to be one of those players (C.Cornes, Goddard, Swan, Ablett, Cox) players that are going to be must haves in 2 years time every year.

Im actually strongly going a little midprice option with my 4th mid so i can fit in 2 premium rucks, 4 prem backs and 5 prem forwards. Because i cant do that at the moment with 2 prem rucks instead of one prem and one midpricer.

Thanks DWD you just talked me into getting Sidebottom. At this rate, I may well have the greatest mid price team of all time assembled before Rd1.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Thanks DWD you just talked me into getting Sidebottom. At this rate, I may well have the greatest mid price team of all time assembled before Rd1.

Remember if all your 22 starters improve there avg by 15 than youll win the car based on last years numbers.

eg: Swan at 123 improves by 2, Swallow 40 improves by 40 than together they improve by 21 each.

Dont just back my judgment but i think he is a very good pick i would consider more if i didnt already have the 2 best magpie mids.

 

[Jolldo87]

DWD, I find the best way to do those price calculations is by plugging the numbers into TooSerious rather than calculating them myself.

Not sure if you've checked it out before but it will definitely answer that question for you. (the one about increasing their average by 15)

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

DWD, I find the best way to do those price calculations is by plugging the numbers into TooSerious rather than calculating them myself.

Not sure if you've checked it out before but it will definitely answer that question for you. (the one about increasing their average by 15)

Oh yes forgot about good old TS.

However i dont know how to use the new outlook and cant even log in for some reason.

 

[Scootyb]

How come i haven't seen one team yet with Sam Fisher?
He's usually a great scorer with St Kilda's defensive style gameplan, and if Gilbert spends more time forward will it mean Fish will spend more time in the sweeping, attacking position?
Only downsides i see are age (he'll only be 29 this year) and him having to do a job on an opponent at times??

 

[Jolldo87]

Oh yes forgot about good old TS.

However i dont know how to use the new outlook and cant even log in for some reason.

I think it got reset and everyone had to register again.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

How come i haven't seen one team yet with Sam Fisher?
He's usually a great scorer with St Kilda's defensive style gameplan, and if Gilbert spends more time forward will it mean Fish will spend more time in the sweeping, attacking position?
Only downsides i see are age (he'll only be 29 this year) and him having to do a job on an opponent at times??

massive unique but i actually see gilbert moving forward (if it eventuates, reckon it will last till round 3) affecting his scores in a negative manner.

 

[Scootyb]

How do you figure DWD, more likely to attract a forward tag?

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

How do you figure DWD, more likely to attract a forward tag?

Yes thats my thinking

See Collingwood have 3 or 4 players who can share the tag around in defence next year, although Shaw will still be the main man tagged back there if hes playing in defence.

But if you look at richmond clubs will be deciding who to tag at of Connors and Deledio. Last year it was only Deledio that mindset will change a little and I see Deledio attention decreasing and Connors attention increasing next year compared to the year before.

It might just be me but if Fisher is the only good creating back in the stkilda back line (i dont see a whole lot else) surely gram will spend time in the middle or wing mainly (having said that if he plays a permanent half back role than he may attract attention). than i would tag Fisher.

 

[normski]

Remember if all your 22 starters improve there avg by 15 than youll win the car based on last years numbers.

eg: Swan at 123 improves by 2, Swallow 40 improves by 40 than together they improve by 21 each.

Dont just back my judgment but i think he is a very good pick i would consider more if i didnt already have the 2 best magpie mids.

I'm not actually sure if this argument is sound. For example, say you had 11 eleven premiums and 11 mid pricers. The midpricers all go up 30 points and you win the car. But its not that simple as you also have 8 bench players (last year) generating cash which allow you to upgrade, and quite clearly you're better off upgrading swallow half way through the season to someone that's averaging 100. So rather than starting off with 22 players who increase in value by 15, you want to choose a squad of 33 (this year) of whom twenty 22 starting players each week will increase in avergae by 15 across the season, taking into consideration that fact that average of each player across the season is influenced by when and whom their upgraded to. This in turn makes the line of though much more complex, and highlights how important it is get your bench options right. Hopefully this makes sense.

 

[swanton]

How come i haven't seen one team yet with Sam Fisher?
He's usually a great scorer with St Kilda's defensive style gameplan, and if Gilbert spends more time forward will it mean Fish will spend more time in the sweeping, attacking position?
Only downsides i see are age (he'll only be 29 this year) and him having to do a job on an opponent at times??

a few reasons why he might not be that popular so far could be:

1 ) most people would have chosen to start with goddard and would not want to have two saints players in the one position

2) like clock work over the last 3 years or so, by rd 8-9 fisher's price would have dropped to arnd the $320 mark, making him an easy upgrade target for the likes of otten and heppell

3) st kilda have suspended their fullback dawson (cant remember how long) so its highly likely that fisher will play a more negating role

 

[Jolldo87]

I'm not actually sure if this argument is sound. For example, say you had 11 eleven premiums and 11 mid pricers. The midpricers all go up 30 points and you win the car. But its not that simple as you also have 8 bench players (last year) generating cash which allow you to upgrade, and quite clearly you're better off upgrading swallow half way through the season to someone that's averaging 100. So rather than starting off with 22 players who increase in value by 15, you want to choose a squad of 33 (this year) of whom twenty 22 starting players each week will increase in avergae by 15 across the season, taking into consideration that fact that average of each player across the season is influenced by when and whom their upgraded to. This in turn makes the line of though much more complex, and highlights how important it is get your bench options right. Hopefully this makes sense.

The point DWD was making that based on last years results if you had 22 players increasing by an average of 15ppg each (doesn't matter if it's 11 by 30 and 11 staying the same) then you wouldn't have needed to trade and you still would've won the car. Injuries become a factor but with 20 trades they're very easy to cover.

Obviously a near impossible task to do this but a good way of thinking nonetheless.

 

[KruZin]

The point DWD was making that based on last years results if you had 22 players increasing by an average of 15ppg each (doesn't matter if it's 11 by 30 and 11 staying the same) then you wouldn't have needed to trade and you still would've won the car. Injuries become a factor but with 20 trades they're very easy to cover.

Obviously a near impossible task to do this but a good way of thinking nonetheless.

This is sort of what I'm going to attempt this season. I've set my self the challenge of selecting a team of mid pricers who I feel each player have it in them to improve their ppg average by 10-20 points this coming season. Winning a car would be awesome, but highly unlikely. Apart from my bench no players over 420k, but no hacks either. Only picking players who I think will be in their teams best 20.

Basically, injury permitting, the goal for me is to go through the entire season without making a single trade whilst finishing in the top 1000. I think the odds of this are a zillion to one, so I expect to have to make a few forced trades to cover for long term injuries and upgrade/downgrade some bench rookies at some point. It will be an interesting experiment, either way. Will keep you guys posted on how the teams going throughout the year if you're interested.

My gut feeling with the byes and gold coast is that the premium/rookie strategy will not work in 2011, at least not for overall win. May have been able to get away with starting rookies in previous years, but I feel attempting that this year, whilst might end up with a high scoring star studded team will be coming from too far back to make up the necessary ground. The steadiest scoring team will prevail overall IMHO.

 

[normski]

The point DWD was making that based on last years results if you had 22 players increasing by an average of 15ppg each (doesn't matter if it's 11 by 30 and 11 staying the same) then you wouldn't have needed to trade and you still would've won the car. Injuries become a factor but with 20 trades they're very easy to cover.

Obviously a near impossible task to do this but a good way of thinking nonetheless.

I understand DWD is getting at, and dont disagree, but the only way I could see that it would work is as follows. Ideally, you want to buy the eleven cheapest players for your bench. Add the cost of the eleven cheapest players =a. Subtract a from the total starting salary cap =b. b is the amount of money you then have to spend on 22 starting players who will hopefully increase their average by 15 points over the season. If this happens and if they play all 22 games, you win the car.






[FONT=&quot]Cant but help think this leads people astray somewhat as its very unrealistic. In reality, what you probably want to do is select a squad of premiums, mid pricers and rookies. The premiums must all finish within the top x positions, so in reality you’re hoping that the five premium forwards you start with fall within the top 7-9 forwards at the end of the season for instance, or be the top five at the end of the season ideally. You want the rest of the squad to score optimally while being able to rapidly upgrade to players who will then be the top scorers in their positions for the rest of the season. Can see that this would cause a fair bit of grief to anyone who wants to calculate the stats throughout the season; thoroughly deserve the car if they take the time to work it all out.[/FONT]

 

[54Dogs]

The point DWD was making that based on last years results if you had 22 players increasing by an average of 15ppg each (doesn't matter if it's 11 by 30 and 11 staying the same) then you wouldn't have needed to trade and you still would've won the car. Injuries become a factor but with 20 trades they're very easy to cover.

Obviously a near impossible task to do this but a good way of thinking nonetheless.

Does this mean if I start with 11 rookies on the field who increase by 20 each and 11 mid pricers who increase by 10 each I will win the car?

I thought that would only score me 1500 each week

 

[bombermick]

Assuming you use your whole cap (or close to) I would imagine.

 

[IDIG]

Yeah was about to say the same thing.

 

[bombermick]

Trouble is it's almost impossible to get it right. Hands up who picked Rischa and Jack this time last year! Anyone? There's going to be some brillant midpricers availiable, but who's got the balls (and the wherewithal) to pick them?

 

[St Oxley]

Hell he even made Chris Judd start in the WAFL, and if Juddy didnt boot 5 goals off a wing he probably would have stayed there for a few rounds.

does anyone have footage of this? i treid a couple months back to look for it but with no success.

 

[Wheedus]

Trouble is it's almost impossible to get it right. Hands up who picked Rischa and Jack this time last year! Anyone? There's going to be some brillant midpricers availiable, but who's got the balls (and the wherewithal) to pick them?

Correct. Midpricers live in Hindsightland.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I'm not actually sure if this argument is sound. For example, say you had 11 eleven premiums and 11 mid pricers. The midpricers all go up 30 points and you win the car. But its not that simple as you also have 8 bench players (last year) generating cash which allow you to upgrade, and quite clearly you're better off upgrading swallow half way through the season to someone that's averaging 100. So rather than starting off with 22 players who increase in value by 15, you want to choose a squad of 33 (this year) of whom twenty 22 starting players each week will increase in avergae by 15 across the season, taking into consideration that fact that average of each player across the season is influenced by when and whom their upgraded to. This in turn makes the line of though much more complex, and highlights how important it is get your bench options right. Hopefully this makes sense.

Its based on last years winning total and this years salary if you have 22 players that improve by 15 you win (based on last year). If you have 11 that stay steady and 11 that improve by 30 than you also win (based on 2010).

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Does this mean if I start with 11 rookies on the field who increase by 20 each and 11 mid pricers who increase by 10 each I will win the car?

I thought that would only score me 1500 each week

Wish people wouldnt try and explain my own "food for thought". You have to spend all or most of your salary which is what everyone does anyway, just about.

Its just food for thought and to get people thinking in different ways, just trying to expand peoples thinking outside the one and only square of guns and rookies.

BOTH strategies can still win this game, any strategy can win this game. You cant really do it next year due to all the byes. But as i said just to get ppl thinking differently.