DT 2011 Backs Thread

[Dunn - Well Done]

I would think the club would just want him to around and play normally. eg: he is still learning the strengths of his team mates, so tagging them and having him focus purely on one player isnt a good idea. He needs to still know what side a player is going to trun, how far he can run away from an opponents kick eg: distance/penetration.

Alot of the teams seem to make one strong team vs a weaker team it seems just from reading a few write ups. Puopolo is just about assured best 20. I cant see another quality small defender at the club, which is why i think Sewell should play a defender small this year, but thats if i was coach.

Im actually considering starting 5 rookies in the backs this year with the quality that seems to be there. Can only find 3 good premiums im happy with down back and still have concerns over Grimes, Duffield, Broughton. Enright seems to pricey for my current structure.

 

[Thorgils]

I think Bruce would be better suited to the Hodge role of past setting up play from the backlines but that's only my opinion, his elite fitness and sound disposal would provide something in the backs that we havent had for some time and might be finally possible without confining Hodge to the backlines. I think it would be a waste of his god given talent to tag. Anyone with elite fitness can tag but if he has the skills why not use them.

I'm sure there are other players out there that could tag, Sewell has got through pre-season this year and apparently looks fit. Once again he has been missing with injury for a lot of 2010 so perhaps he is capable of tagging as well as playing as an inside midfielder like he has in the past.

Puopolo seems groomed to be the Campbell Brown of 2011, he has great run and carry as well as the ability to play purely as a stopper. Once again something we currently do not possess in our backlines at the moment. A run and carry player in the backlines is something we have not had since 08. Ready made player with a body that could stand the rigors of AFL straight away, an interesting prospect.

 

[Hannabal]

I think Bruce would be better suited to the Hodge role of past setting up play from the backlines but that's only my opinion, his elite fitness and sound disposal

How does one post that "not sure if serious" photo ?

 

[Thorgils]

How does one post that "not sure if serious" photo ?

He had a efficiency disposal of 80% in 2009 the 2nd highest in the AFL ???

Cross with 83% was first.

 

[Hannabal]

He had a efficiency disposal of 80% in 2009 the 2nd highest in the AFL ???

Cross with 83% was first.

I prefer to use my eyes.

Can't say I'll miss the scrubber kicks, the slow flying floaters, or the hospital handballs to teammates under more pressure.

I suppose the latter counts as an efficient handball if the poor bugger takes it ?

I'm surprised that you didn't say great disposal rather than "sound" if you were so wedded to the great stats.

And no, I don't need to know his 2010 stats.

 

[Lakey91]

I think cross with 83% says it all. The only time he kicks is when its a dinky 20m kick sideways or backwards to a man 40m on his own. And even then he only hits them 83% of the time!

 

[Ollies]

I prefer to use my eyes.

Can't say I'll miss the scrubber kicks, the slow flying floaters, or the hospital handballs to teammates under more pressure.

I suppose the latter counts as an efficient handball if the poor bugger takes it ?

I'm surprised that you didn't say great disposal rather than "sound" if you were so wedded to the great stats.

And no, I don't need to know his 2010 stats.

We are talking DT here. They all count.

 

[Thorgils]

I prefer to use my eyes.

Can't say I'll miss the scrubber kicks, the slow flying floaters, or the hospital handballs to teammates under more pressure.

I suppose the latter counts as an efficient handball if the poor bugger takes it ?

I'm surprised that you didn't say great disposal rather than "sound" if you were so wedded to the great stats.

And no, I don't need to know his 2010 stats.

If you say so.

 

[terminators]

Similar to something I posted in the mids last week I've done a quick summary of a few of the key defender premiums. The factors I've looked at are the following:


Scoring history: Scoring history for the past 3 years for the player concerned. Looking at trends, value and captain option. 2011 listed first and work back from there.

Durability: History for the past 3 years. Vital for obvious reasons but even more so this year with byes to be covered. To win DT you must have your premiums on the field. 2011 listed first and work back from there.

Age: Age is relevant to DT as 70% of the top 20 DTrs every year are between 26 and 28 years old. This is the sweet spot.

Impact of draw / byes: Look at the players byes and whether this will impact selection of them based on others in the team and whether playing for league / overall.

Changes in 2011: This will cover changes to role for the player or changes to team personnel which may impact (+/-) on the players prospects.

Price Fluctuations history: With forwards and defenders having higher SDev it's important to know who are the most consistent and who will have swings in price and can be traded in later.



A couple of factors different to the midfielders here. Team success is not as important for defenders so it has been left out. 7 of the top 20 defenders by average last year were from teams out of the 8. Price flucs history is far more important for defenders than mids due to more scoring variance, hence this has been included.

Again most serious DTrs probably looking at 4 premiums to start the year in defence. I will look at the most popular 8-10 premium options based on the criteria above:





BRENDAN GODDARD

Scoring history: 113, 103, 90

Durability: 21, 21, 20

Age: 25

Price Fluctuations history: Highly consistent. 17 tons from 21 games. 1 score under 88 for the year.

Impact of draw / byes: Cluster bye with Dogs / Lions in Rd 4, Rd 14 bye.

Changes in 2011: Role basically unchanged in 2011. Will pinch hit up forward, float down back and continue to be the comps premier utility player.

Summary: Similar to Swan in the mids, Goddard ticks every box. Age, SDev, durability, role, scoring capacity, proven history. Will be at least 10 points clear of the rest of the backs and will be tough to get in cheap later so essentially a must have from the get go. Lock.


BRYCE GIBBS

Scoring history: 96, 107, 87

Durability: 22, 22, 21

Age: 21

Price Fluctuations history: Price flucs and SDev were high last year with role deep in defence (see changes). 7 scores under 90 and scores as high as 166. Through the midfield in 2009 he had 1 score under 80 (74).

Impact of draw / byes: Byes in Rd 8 and 23. Rd 23 is PF for league matches.

Changes in 2011: Gibbs played basically all of 2010 in defence and it has been well documented he will play through the midfield in 2011. 2009 therefore provides a better sample of what to expect however he now has another 2 years experience. Also expect more attention this year with the 2nd tag behind Judd going to Murphy or Gibbs.

Summary: Gibbs also has a lot going for him. Good scoring history, underpriced from previous midfield time, great durability and consistent scoring when last through the midfield. Good byes unless you are going for league win. Only worry may be how he handles attention as a young player if he does start getting tagged which could result in scoring flucs. Overall though looks very solid.


DANIEL CONNORS

Scoring history: 92, 36, 66

Durability: 14, 2, 4

Age:22

Price Fluctuations history: From 14 games last year had 1 score under 70 and 4 tons

Impact of draw / byes: Rd 11 solo and Rd 19 with Sydney / Brisbane

Changes in 2011: Should continue in same role as running HB pushing up to the wing / middle

Summary: Connors doesn't tick a lot of boxes and is really the smokey of the premiums. His durability is actually OK, his 8 missed games last year were for off field issue which have historically been a problem. His disposal is a bit ordinary, tends to bomb away, but for DT that's not always a bad thing. He does have 2 solid advantages over some others though. Firstly, his byes are excellent. Secondly he will receive absolutely no attention. Lids will get the number one fwd tag which will often leave Connors as the available outlet and he loves getting lateral to the contest for the cheap sideways mark. Would certainly be unique, not a big enough sample for me but wouldn't be surprised at all if he backed up 2010.



BRETT DELEDIO

Scoring history: 89, 96, 98

Durability: 22, 22, 22

Age: 23

Price Fluctuations history: 7 games under 80 last year, 3 under 70. 6 tons but none over 114

Impact of draw / byes: Rd 11 solo and Rd 19 with Sydney / Brisbane

Changes in 2011: Will continue in sweeping / rebounding role off HB

Summary: Lids ticks plenty of boxes. Has proven he can score in the mid 90s so under priced, a good age and exceptional durability. That said, he will continue to receive plenty of attention at HB so will not pick up any monster scores as showed last year. A safe pick with some upside but not massive. Byes are also good for overall and league.


GREG BROUGHTON


Scoring history: 89, 88.

Durability: 15,15 - Had a hamstring last year and foot injury in 2009.

Age: 24

Price Fluctuations history: Generally very consistent with only 4 scores below 80 last year, 2 of these in his first 2 weeks back from injury. 4 tons, highest score 120

Impact of draw / byes: Cluster in Rd 6 with Hawks / Cats, cluster in Rd 16 with Crows / Dees

Changes in 2011: Some talk he may push more upfield through the midfield but this has been stated for many Freo players, expect the running HB role to continue in the main.

Summary: Plenty of coaches deciding between Broughton / Duffield for their number 4 defender. Looks a great option if going for the league win with both byes in non game rounds and away from finals. Durability is a concern with the need for players on the park in 2011. Erratic disposal at times should mean Duffield gets more attention and Broughton may be freed up to provide run. Loves to get lateral and pick up cheap marks, age is good. Doubts for mine are 2 cluster byes and durability.



PAUL DUFFIELD

Scoring history: 88, 89, 64

Durability: 22, 21, 11

Age: 25

Price Fluctuations history: Pretty inconsistent. 8 scores below 80 last year and 6 tons, price can jump around a bit.

Impact of draw / byes: Cluster in Rd 6 with Hawks / Cats, cluster in Rd 16 with Crows / Dees

Changes in 2011: Similar to Broughton some talk he may push further upfield but generally expected to rebound again off HB. Struggled with fwd tags late in 2010 so expect more of this.

Summary: Duffield ticks the age and durability boxes, his missed game in 2009 he was actually dropped. His scores jump around a bit and he struggled late last year with fwd tags. Did not have a ton from Rd 17-22 and averaged 77 coming home. Similar to Enright he can expect more of that this year as if he is allowed space he provides great run and line breaking ability. Byes are great for league but ordinary for overall with 2 clusters.



ANDREW MACKIE

Scoring history: 88, 83, 91

Durability: 21, 21, 18

Age: 26

Price Fluctuations history: 7 scores under 80 and 3 tons.

Impact of draw / byes: Cluster with Freo / Hawks in Rd 6, Rd 22

Changes in 2011: Change in coach and more defensive game plan in 2011.

Summary: Mackie actually ticks plenty of boxes in 2011. Durability used to be an issue but has improved in last 2 years. Good age, solid scoring history. I have a gut feel the change in game plan will help Mackie. Saw him lateral to the contest so many times last year but consistently ignored because of the Cats style of going fwd through the middle. Enright really struggling with tags late should also mean more freedom for Mackie in 2011. Byes are a bit funny and should be considered but creates interest and is pretty unique.



COREY ENRIGHT

Scoring history: 92, 90, 87

Durability: 21, 22, 22

Age: 29

Price Fluctuations history: Big fluctuations in 2010. 9 tons and 7 scores under 80 including 4 under 60.

Impact of draw / byes: Cluster with Freo / Hawks in Rd 6, Rd 22

Changes in 2011: Struggled badly when tagged in 2010, outstanding when freed up. Expect more attention as the difference between being tagged and not is so great.

Summary: Enright doesn't tick a huge number of boxes. His durability is excellent but he is 30 this year and struggled when he got a tight fwd tag in 2010. Rd 15-18 and the finals were an example of this. Expect opposition coaches to see this and focus more on him in 2011 which will create more scoring fluctuations. Could be a trade in option with 2-3 really poor ones in a row but the high SDev says no for the starting lineup. Byes are awkwars as well for both league and overall.







There's a few others who could be considered (Gilbert, Rawlings etc) plus those with poor PS (Lake) who may be mid year trade ins but most premiums will come from the list above, plus I'm at the word limit.

Running defenders are actually pretty easy to pigeon hole. Invariably when they are new to the role they get less attention and score in the low to mid 90s but after a while in the role they start to get sat on and flatten out to the 80s. It's rare to see running defenders who have been in the role for 2 years or more average over 90.

 

[Nothing]

You have Broughton's scores and durability the wrong way around.

Great post again.

 

[dewey13]

Very torn... Hibberd v Heppell?

 

[Wheedus]

Very torn... Hibberd v Heppell?

Heppell. Hibberd less ikely to get regular games early. Good downgrade target.

 

[Bombers_Insider]

Is Brendon Goddard Worth picking.
I mean we all know he is a out n out gun and a star. BUT
his priced at $471,000 and with the first five Round.

Cats he avgs 85
Rich 88
Ess 87
Bye
Lions 68

going by his Avgs he would of dropped $44,600 and down to $426,400
with a break even of 137.

then in the 6th round he plays Adel where he avgs a 101 with a break even of 137
then moving on to round 7 where he plays carlton avg of 82
and a massive break even of 143.

SO My point of this is come round 8 he would of dropped $95,700
and a nice price of $375,300

 

[Jolldo87]

Is Brendon Goddard Worth picking.
I mean we all know he is a out n out gun and a star. BUT
his priced at $471,000 and with the first five Round.

Cats he avgs 85
Rich 88
Ess 87
Bye
Lions 68

going by his Avgs he would of dropped $44,600 and down to $426,400
with a break even of 137.

then in the 6th round he plays Adel where he avgs a 101 with a break even of 137
then moving on to round 7 where he plays carlton avg of 82
and a massive break even of 143.

SO My point of this is come round 8 he would of dropped $95,700
and a nice price of $375,300

Why use his career averages though? He's clearly a far better player now than he was in his first season. Based on your stats he will average 84.5 over the course of the season and be a dud pick. Do you really think this is going to happen?

 

[Bombers_Insider]

Why use his career averages though? He's clearly a far better player now than he was in his first season. Based on your stats he will average 84.5 over the course of the season and be a dud pick. Do you really think this is going to happen?

My point was you could get him much cheaper with the tough start he has of course he should avg 100 for the year n be the best back. but you could also have gibbs , del , etc who could avg 85+ and do the same job and save you close to 100k and spend it else where by the round where his cheap you could cash in on one of your cash cows and make him a nice upgrade

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Because Richmond, Brisbane and Tigers are such hard teams to play. Probably top 3 for these teams.







sarcasm

 

[Jolldo87]

My point was you could get him much cheaper with the tough start he has of course he should avg 100 for the year n be the best back. but you could also have gibbs , del , etc who could avg 85+ and do the same job and save you close to 100k and spend it else where by the round where his cheap you could cash in on one of your cash cows and make him a nice upgrade

No, your missing the point. His career average are irrelevant. Goddard will average much more over the first 5 rounds than the 85 you are suggesting.

Round 1 - Geelong - 2009/2010 scores v opponent: 100, 120, 114, 96 @ 107.5
Round 2 - Richmond - 140, 138, 128 @ 135.33
Round 3 - Essendon - 115, 101, 66, 107 @ 97.25
Round 4 - Bye
Round 5 - Brisbane - 96 @ 96

Hardly a tough start at all. Can't see how the fact that Goddard scored 79, 48, 57, 51 and 50 against the Lions in the first three years of his career would give any indication of his likely scores agains the Lions in 2011 and suggest he is going to score 68.

 

[Jolldo87]

Because Richmond, Brisbane and Tigers are such hard teams to play. Probably top 3 for these teams.







sarcasm

Richmond are good, not sure about the Tigers though.

 

[Bombers_Insider]

Because Richmond, Brisbane and Tigers are such hard teams to play. Probably top 3 for these teams.







sarcasm

Was just putting it out there.....

but we all know your a know it all Dwd

"SARCASM"

 

[Bombers_Insider]

No, your missing the point. His career average are irrelevant. Goddard will average much more over the first 5 rounds than the 85 you are suggesting.

Round 1 - Geelong - 2009/2010 scores v opponent: 100, 120, 114, 96 @ 107.5
Round 2 - Richmond - 140, 138, 128 @ 135.33
Round 3 - Essendon - 115, 101, 66, 107 @ 97.25
Round 4 - Bye
Round 5 - Brisbane - 96 @ 96

Hardly a tough start at all. Can't see how the fact that Goddard scored 79, 48, 57, 51 and 50 against the Lions in the first three years of his career would give any indication of his likely scores agains the Lions in 2011 and suggest he is going to score 68.

fair point. but can he keep backing them kinda scores up

 

[Jolldo87]

fair point. but can he keep backing them kinda scores up

That's the million dollar question I guess. If he doesn't and you don't pick him you'll definitely get a big leg up on the field. I'm not trying to tell you to pick Goddard or not just making sure you're using the right facts when you're making your decision.

 

[Bombers_Insider]

That's the million dollar question I guess. If he doesn't and you don't pick him you'll definitely get a big leg up on the field. I'm not trying to tell you to pick Goddard or not just making sure you're using the right facts when you're making your decision.

I want Goddard in my team don't get me wrong. but if i can get him alot cheaper with out losing to many point by picking someone whos 100k cheaper ill be doing it. just trying to see 2 sides of Goddard to pick him or not to pick him. still 50/50 on it cause of his price , if he was around the 400,000 mark he be locked and loaded 100%

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Was just putting it out there.....

but we all know your a know it all Dwd

"SARCASM"

So you seriously think he will struggle against ess, rich, brisbane.

Give me a break if people dont know how pathetic these teams are and were last year, than you may aswell not both with a forum. You've really got no hope.

 

[Bombers_Insider]

So you seriously think he will struggle against ess, rich, brisbane.

Give me a break if people dont know how pathetic these teams are and were last year, than you may aswell not both with a forum. You've really got no hope.

I never said he would "Struggle" as bad as you make it out to be.

I was saying he more then likely won't score 100 every game to keep his price up and come down in price and then you could jump on him at a cheaper price. and spend the money else where.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I never said he would "Struggle" as bad as you make it out to be.

I was saying he more then likely won't score 100 every game to keep his price up and come down in price and then you could jump on him at a cheaper price. and spend the money else where.

And im asking why would that be, when he has scored 3/4 100s against geelong, avg 135 against tigers, 3/4 100s against dons and a 96 against the lions which is a small sample size, so doesnt really count for me.

Lets be honest you made a mistake and thought it was last years data or something not his entire career.