DT 2011 Forwards Thread

[bombermick]

Only thing you have to think about re: Sylvia is his durability. If you think he's over his troubles pick him, if not, don't. Simple.

 

[Athomas]

So, Melbourne come 8th and Sylvia can average 100 but if they come 10th he can't? Absolute garbage.

Pretty much what's being said is if Melbourne win 12 games it's possible but if they only win 11 he's not going to average 100. It makes no difference. Now, if you said Melbourne were going to win 16+ then that's a different story.

Taking it a bit too literally for mine. If Melbourne are a good team pushing for the 8 (more preferably in the top 6-7) then they will be getting more of the ball and racking up more DT points (usually).

If they are dwelling in 10th-17th then they won't be scoring as well. This is proven that the top 8 sides not only average better DT wise but the top players come from top 8 sides (18/19 or whatever it was).

I hope other pick Sylvia personally, I just see him as too undurable. When people start saying that it's his first preseason and the two byes might help him, sure they might, but it's still very likely he will miss 3+ games at the minimum imo.

 

[stylz]

Not sure why everyone is all pumped with sylvia.. for a few extra $k you can get Green. Albeit not a DP player but a hell of a lot more enticing than colon.

 

[S3XDONS]

guys i need to pick 2 of Mckernan, Tapscott and Darling... help me out? who's the best job security, score potential, etc?,

 

[stylz]

Darling definitely
I think mckernan has more js but tapscott has a higher ceiling.. if tapscott is named id go him.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

So, Melbourne come 8th and Sylvia can average 100 but if they come 10th he can't? Absolute garbage.

Pretty much what's being said is if Melbourne win 12 games it's possible but if they only win 11 he's not going to average 100. It makes no difference. Now, if you said Melbourne were going to win 16+ then that's a different story.

Taking it way to literally.

I can only see an increase in attention/tags. A plateau from melbourne. And his durability has to have question marks all over it, although its very overrated how bad it is. Im sure in his last 6-7 years he wouldve completed a full preseason, and he has missed 4+ games on every occasion avg missing 6 a year.

This is how i sit with the whole situation. I believe he is the 5th best premium forward as we speak. But im only taking 4 premium forwards, just not enough quality there that i can rely on. Only 3 have little to no question marks and im picking them all as my 3 premium top end forwards.

 

[Jolldo87]

Taking it a bit too literally for mine. If Melbourne are a good team pushing for the 8 (more preferably in the top 6-7) then they will be getting more of the ball and racking up more DT points (usually).

Melbourne had more DT points last season than pretty much every side excluding the top 4 so even if they stagnated in 12th (worst case scenario imo) they're still getting more than enough ball to have someone average 100+.

If they are dwelling in 10th-17th then they won't be scoring as well.

They won't be scoring as well as they potentially good but comparatively they will still score well as shown last season.

This is proven that the top 8 sides not only average better DT wise but the top players come from top 8 sides (18/19 or whatever it was).

Top 8 sides average more than bottom 8 sides. But this isn't really relevant to Melbourne. However do sides 5-8 average more than sides 9-12? I'd don't have the facts on this one however I suggest that if there is any difference it would be negligible.

18 players averaged 100 last year. 13 were from top 4 sides who scored more total points than Melbourne. 2 were from Carlton who scored more total points than Melbourne. 1 each from Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and Fremantle who scored less total points than Melbourne.

This shows that it is definitely possible for Sylvia to average 100, even if Melbourne don't improve albeit unlikely. However, even an improvement of a couple of wins could be enough for Sylvia to improve his average. Not to mention the fact that he could have some natural development left in him.

I hope other pick Sylvia personally, I just see him as too undurable. When people start saying that it's his first preseason and the two byes might help him, sure they might, but it's still very likely he will miss 3+ games at the minimum imo.

Yep, and that's all fine. I'm not saying that he will or won't be a good pick because no one knows that at this stage.

The point is, the notion that Melbourne have to come 5th-8th for Sylvia to be a good option this year is ridiculous imo.

 

[Jolldo87]

Taking it way to literally.

I can only see an increase in attention/tags. A plateau from melbourne. And his durability has to have question marks all over it, although its very overrated how bad it is. Im sure in his last 6-7 years he wouldve completed a full preseason, and he has missed 4+ games on every occasion avg missing 6 a year.

The fact he hasn't played in Round 1 since 2006 suggests he's always carried injuries into a season. I'm aware one year he missed Round 1 suspended so that is potentially the only time he's actually completed a full preseason previous.

Has he missed 4+ games every season though? My stats say he hasn't.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Hodge and Mitchell scored above 100 for hawks. Fremantle, Hawks and Cartlon were those sides around 5-8 that you mentioned. 5 players came from these teams that avg above 100.

So yes i would say they go alot better in regards to 100+ scorers than teams that finish 9-12th. Who avg 100+ from those teams??

I by no way am saying its impossible for Sylvia to avg 100+ if melbourne finish 9-12th but the odds and past history are against him which i am simply showing.

Also have a look at melbournes NAB cup, there scoring is poor to say the least. Im actually going to do a write up on it, so stay tuned.

 

[Chunky]

I have a question for the Sylvia nay-sayers ...

can you name a forward premium who doesn't have questions marks about them in 2011? this is really rather irrelevant because you can argue against every single one of them with some very solid and valid points for each other. for instance;

Chapman: no pre-season, going into the season injured with soft tissue injuries, reputation to be injury-prone, almost 30, has a finals bye, and the third most expensive player in the game

Goodes: now 31-years-old, notoriously slow starter, likely to see less midfield time now under Longmire?

Pavlich: last year suggested his form and days as a mega-scorer might be behind them with a number of sub-80 scores, which isn't what you want for his price tag

it's no different with Sylvia. every single one of these guys has counter-arguments to picking them, that's primarily because the forward premiums aren't very good this year. there is a risk with all of them, even Riewoldt, so ... what's wrong with Sylvia?

You make a good point. Which is why I will be loading up on midpricers in the forward line because I simply cannot trust the majority of the premiums.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

The fact he hasn't played in Round 1 since 2006 suggests he's always carried injuries into a season. I'm aware one year he missed Round 1 suspended so that is potentially the only time he's actually completed a full preseason previous.

Has he missed 4+ games every season though? My stats say he hasn't.

Dont know what stats you are using but, he has never played more than 18 games in a H&A season when the DT season is run.

He has been suspended for the start of the season on a few occassions. Club suspension IIRC and also that one round he missed due to suspension in that given year.

He has played round 2 on most occasions which suggest he hasnt been that to unprepared.

 

[Jolldo87]

Hodge and Mitchell scored above 100 for hawks. Fremantle, Hawks and Cartlon were those sides around 5-8 that you mentioned. 5 players came from these teams that avg above 100.

So yes i would say they go alot better in regards to 100+ scorers than teams that finish 9-12th. Who avg 100+ from those teams??

I by no way am saying its impossible for Sylvia to avg 100+ if melbourne finish 9-12th but the odds and past history are against him which i am simply showing.

Also have a look at melbournes NAB cup, there scoring is poor to say the least. Im actually going to do a write up on it, so stay tuned.

My bad, I did leave Mitchell off.

The 100+ scores could be due to the fact that Fremantle, Hawthorn have Carlton have a couple of superstars in their team that the likes of North Melbourne and Adelaide lack rather than the fact that it's easier to score in teams 5-8. In terms of total points scored in 2010 though, there's nothing to suggest a Melbourne player is any less likely to average 100 than Hawthorn player of similar ability. Now, wether Sylvia has that ability is the vital question imo.

 

[Jolldo87]

Dont know what stats you are using but, he has never played more than 18 games in a H&A season when the DT season is run.

Sort of. I'll let you figure out what I meant.

He has been suspended for the start of the season on a few occassions. Club suspension IIRC and also that one round he missed due to suspension in that given year.

Once he's missed with a club Suspension. That was 2008. I could be wrong but I don't believe he's missed round 1 in any other year due to suspension.

He has played round 2 on most occasions which suggest he hasnt been that to unprepared.

I guess different people will interpret that differently. That's the beauty of the game, it's impossible to know exactly what's behind these issues.

 

[WCE9]

Hey DWD considering what u have said, would u consider goodes a better pick than sylvia. I think they will average similar but goodes will more likely play 22 games. This becomes especially important i ur gonna take a risk on a higgins or knights. Like u i plan on having 3 premiums, and other than buddy and voldt, i havent seen many other options. For me its down to goodes v stevie j, but i cant decide haha

 

[Benno_900]

Go Johnson. Looks set for a big year.

 

[DB10]

you'd want to win your first finals game and finish in the top 4 then.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Whether Sylvia misses games through injury or suspension, it still equates to missing games.

If i had to pick between a top 4 team player with the same ability as Sylvia from a 10-12 team than i would definitly pick the player from the top 4 team based on history and proven facts.

The higher your team, the more points you score and the more 100+ scorers you have. I cant see how people cant see that. The stats are in front of them.

Amount of 100+ scorers

Collingwood - 2
Geelong - 4
Stkilda - 4
Western Buldogs - 2
Sydney -
Freo - 1
Hawks - 2
Carlton - 1
North
Port - 1
Adelaide
Melbourne
Brisbane
Essendon
Richmond
West Coast

17 players avg 100+, 12 came from top 4 teams, 16 came from top 8 teams. Kornes was the only player to avg 100+ that was bottom 8.

If i was to pick a 5th forward it would be between Goodes vs Harvey vs Sylvia. Harvey could be quite a nice unique and may finally start to get less attention with the improvment of Swallow and hopefully increased games into Anthony and Wells could also help. Id probably pick Goodes ahead of Sylvia at this stage. Goodes is a renowned slow starter but it seems he has had a superb preseason and been very good in the NAB cup. So his slow starts are unlikely to occur. Id be much more confident if i got to watch the swans play more, i still think he is required up front and i dont like the fact that Jack isnt going to play his own game - it still seems like he will play roles. Because if he plays his own game than he takes the number 1 tag through the middle and anything to reduce attention from Goodes is a good thing and can only improve his numbers.

However i likely wont take the risk with any of them.

 

[pillager]

I don't mind if DWD talks down Sylvia as a good prospect.

He is doing my team a service.

Sylvia certainly has missed games in the past due to injury, but If I recall last year he had a broken jaw? I put that more down to bad luck than being prone to injury.

What will happen if Sylvia plays all games with a full pre-season behind him in an improving Melbourne side? At the age of 25 he is certainly primed to go.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I don't mind if DWD talks down Sylvia as a good prospect.

He is doing my team a service.

Sylvia certainly has missed games in the past due to injury, but If I recall last year he had a broken jaw? I put that more down to bad luck than being prone to injury.

What will happen if Sylvia plays all games with a full pre-season behind him in an improving Melbourne side? At the age of 25 he is certainly primed to go.

All good points and its an opinion, yours is different obviously but i dont see melbourne improving. Without that jaw injury Sylvia wouldve still only played 18 games, no where near enough for a 97 priced player.

 

[pillager]

All good points and its an opinion, yours is different obviously but i dont see melbourne improving. Without that jaw injury Sylvia wouldve still only played 18 games, no where near enough for a 97 priced player.

I agree there is an element of risk.

I think the positives outweigh the negatives.

Considering what Sylvia did from round 15 to rnd 22 (avg 111), I think he has at least 5 points of upside in him and DP adds a little more value.

If I was to be optimististic and believe he can manage an injury free 2011 then I think I am being too conservative with my estimate.

 

[54Dogs]

Sylvia has all the tools to average 100. Would not surprise me if he did. The problem is there are just so many red flags the downside if it goes south is huge. With that many red flags you'd be looking for him to come in priced at around 85 initially IMO.

The other thing not mentioned a lot is his inconsistency. Can be shut out of games quite easily leading to big flucs in scoring. Last year had scores of

68, 49, 48, 63 and 78

plus some huge scores .


I'm not overly worried about his off field issues. He's mid 20s now and was good after the start of last year. I am a touch worried about his injuries, more impact related than anything else. He sticks his head in the middle of packs and finds places where impact injuries can occur with his bash and crash style. Some people are more suspect to impact injuries, similar to Dangerfield.

I'm just not sure what people are hoping for. 22 games at 100 would be absolute best case so maybe a 3 point increase on average. Only the absolute best DTrs average a ton in lower ranked teams, Cox and Kornes the only 2 in the last 3 years outside the 8. If the Dees stagnate he could struggle for an increase. He'll get the 2nd tag behind Davey so that could result in more low games if he struggles to wok through it.

If DTs a game of risk / reward the risk far outweighs the reward for me. But I wouldn't at all be surprised if it went the other way, he has all the attributes.

 

[Hannabal]

I'm not overly worried about his off field issues. He's mid 20s now and was good after the start of last year. I am a touch worried about his injuries, more impact related than anything else. He sticks his head in the middle of packs and finds places where impact injuries can occur with his bash and crash style. Some people are more suspect to impact injuries, similar to Dangerfield.

He'll get the 2nd tag behind Davey so that could result in more low games if he struggles to wok through it.

I've watched Sylvia for years and he's never tagged. He spent more time in the midfield last year, but he's far from an accumulator.

And as far as "impact injuries" go, the only one he's ever had was preseason last year when Kennedy cleaned him up off the ball when shepherding a WC player. He hardly put his head in a dangerous place and there's been no other "impact" injuries in his career to date.

 

[Cat for Life]

Dogs how many of those games came before he got over his mid season injury? I think once he recovered from the toe he was pretty consistent.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Some great discussion on a player that was almost the notion of a lock in so many teams, yet he had never been talked about or discussed and who started it?? ahahah

Happy i made people think twice about it and realise he aint a lock in like so many saw him as.

Great post by Dogs.

@Hannabal you misread the post. Dogs is saying Sylvia will get the number 2 tag which i think will be the number 1 midfield tag/defensive tag. Where as Davey will likely get the midfield/offensive HFF tag.

 

[Lazarus]

I don't watch many Melbourne games, so this may be a stupid question but I'm gonna ask it anyway.
Where do Sylvia's points come from? He doesn't kick that many goals, does he? ...and someone just said he wasn't an accumulator.
Is he a big tackler?