DT 2011 Mids Thread

[Dunn - Well Done]

FWIW, Boak scored 78 DT Points playing only half the game V Richmond.

Was that against there VFL side??

If i remember Stanton score 174 against them last year, so nothing special.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Stats dont lie in dream team mate, you cant argue he averaged 95 last year playing with half a groin. Name me any midfielder thats $395 000 or less and we will see who averages the most come round 22.

Massive upside to this bloke, will be a star.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/injury-hurt-boak-in-2010/story-e6frecjc-1225948187349

Thats my point, he is going to put up keeper numbers. I could name 5 players around 100~ who will increase the difference in DT avg between them and him.

Why? Anthony's score? Don't read too much into it.

More with J.Lewis what position did he play??

 

[Benno_900]

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?p=20275375&highlight=lewis

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

^ Thanks, i should probably be reading every game review on bigfooty if i was serious

 

[Valli]

Was that against there VFL side??

If i remember Stanton score 174 against them last year, so nothing special.

I agree, I'm not going to convince anyone about Boak because he is a gem and he will most likely be in my team. He can do well with a tag and may not even have to worry about one with Pearce and Hartlett* being more damaging players.

*assuming the wind doesn't injure him first

 

[azza7071]

hey just curious, what are people's thoughts on Houli. could be a good midpricer like a Martin and could easily make you some cash...

 

[Crow-mo]

hey just curious, what are people's thoughts on Houli. could be a good midpricer like a Martin and could easily make you some cash...

here's the thing, Houli will certainly make you money.

what is far from certain whether it will be very much, and whether it will be worth it? if he makes you 30-40K say, is that worth the trade and the fact that he might not be at a sufficient price to just switch to a fallen premium.

its not enough to just ask if he will make you money, its about how much, context, options etc.

a high risk, and you have to decide if he will deliver enough to justify that

 

[azza7071]

here's the thing, Houli will certainly make you money.

what is far from certain whether it will be very much, and whether it will be worth it? if he makes you 30-40K say, is that worth the trade and the fact that he might not be at a sufficient price to just switch to a fallen premium.

its not enough to just ask if he will make you money, its about how much, context, options etc.

a high risk, and you have to decide if he will deliver enough to justify that

yea true should have mentioned that...but what do people think of him nearing the 350k-400k mark and swapping straight to a premium or use one trade to a premium with very little cash needed. we saw wat he could do at the bombers with knights destroying his confidence and always dropping him, and at times limited TOG. also i think he would receive very little attention still if he does start performing quite well..

 

[Crow-mo]

yea true should have mentioned that...but what do people think of him nearing the 350k-400k mark and swapping straight to a premium or use one trade to a premium with very little cash needed. we saw wat he could do at the bombers with knights destroying his confidence and always dropping him, and at times limited TOG. also i think he would receive very little attention still if he does start performing quite well..

350-400K I'd say a very small chance.

yeah it COULD happen, but a unlikely.

just remember this, you're more likely to hit 170 points between a gun & rookie, than you are to get 2 mid pricers going to 85 each. they'll cost the same

 

[KR37]

What are peoples thoughts on Liam Anthony?

Currently have him as my 4th mid behind Swan, Boyd and J.Selwood.

Has proven in the past he can average close to 100, but I'm a bit unsure of his preseason to date..

 

[yogibbear]

What are peoples thoughts on Liam Anthony?

Currently have him as my 4th mid behind Swan, Boyd and J.Selwood.

Has proven in the past he can average close to 100, but I'm a bit unsure of his preseason to date..

When he plays he will be a DT ****. Whether he can play 22 games and maintain his fitness (i.e. not get injured, his fitness is fine AFAIK) is another question. I think he is worth a punt if you are strapped for cash. However, he is going to finish the year as your sixth midfielder. So if you see him averaging 105 then JUMP ON. If not, I'd play it a little safer.

 

[ManWithNoName]

hey just curious, what are people's thoughts on Houli. could be a good midpricer like a Martin and could easily make you some cash...

He was at Essendon for years. We had a shit midfield for years. And he still couldn't get a game.

What does that tell you?

 

[footylover18]

350-400K I'd say a very small chance.

yeah it COULD happen, but a unlikely.

just remember this, you're more likely to hit 170 points between a gun & rookie, than you are to get 2 mid pricers going to 85 each. they'll cost the same

Perhaps but this year there are other things that are arguably as important as scoring potential, namely job security.

The guns + rookie approach looks sexier because you have a guaranteed "keeper" and it always looks nice to have that uber gun in your lineup but the guns and rookies approach isn't always better than the mid priced approach. Firstly, this year where we have byes to worry about in addition to injuries/suspensions/droppings etc, job security is of paramount importance. Rookies generally don't have the best job security, they can wear out, they are at risk of injury and they can get dropped, i would argue that they are at higher risk of these things than seasoned campaigners. Would be very irritating having a rookie get dropped during one of the group byes resulting in potential zeroes.

I do agree, you don't want to go overboard on the mid pricers but i think avoiding them is also a mistake. For example, give me Liam Anthony + Nathan Foley over Matthew Boyd + Shaun Atley.

 

[footylover18]

What are peoples thoughts on Liam Anthony?

Currently have him as my 4th mid behind Swan, Boyd and J.Selwood.

Has proven in the past he can average close to 100, but I'm a bit unsure of his preseason to date..

A fine choice. I believe he leads the AFL in ppm (points per minute) so we know he can score with the best of them. Is certainly underpriced and will score close to 100ppg which is fine.

 

[Benno_900]

A fine choice. I believe he leads the AFL in ppm (points per minute) so we know he can score with the best of them. Is certainly underpriced and will score close to 100ppg which is fine.

Not if you want to win the comp. There'd be at least 15 mids with higher averages.

 

[footylover18]

Not if you want to win the comp.

Rubbish.

 

[Benno_900]

Rubbish.

Go on ...

 

[DB10]

I'm not going to win the car so it's not a factor for me.

 

[footylover18]

Go on ...

Ok, well i just think that the idea of achieving the perfect team is a nice thing to aim for but in reality doesn't happen. Particularly this year, the focus really should be on minimising donuts, not necessarily getting the top 6 mids, top 7 backs and forwards and top 2 rucks etc. I'll use the example of Sandilands, it might make you feel like your team looks better if you have Sandilands in your lineup but if Sandilands misses 3 games on the year (highly likely), then are you really better off? Let's say he averages 95, but misses 3 games, that's 1805 points, or i could pick say Jolly who history would suggest is highly likely to play 22 games, if he averages 85 but plays 22 games he would produce 1870. A simple example, and i do recognise that with DP and a good backup that the numbers for sandilands could change slightly but the point remains. You don't necessarily need the highest scoring averages, you need the most total points.

Another example of why the perfect team is not going to be achieved. Take Malceski and Waters of last year. I bet pretty much every team that finished very highly had those two players starting for them in the backline, yet neither of them finished in the top 7 backs (i dont think). It's not like anyone would've upgraded them to get the "perfect" backline. Malceski and Waters were both far more valuable than say Gilbert even though Gilbert finished with a higher average and the #2 overall back. The money saved in going with Malceski/Waters was what made them so key, this brings me to my next example.......

A second point i'd like to raise is that you don't need the best 6 midfielders. Going on last years' numbers there are probably 3 midfielders that are head and shoulders above the rest. I'm not counting GAJ because i feel his situation has changed too much and i'm not counting Chappy because he's also a forward. Now, i said that Anthony could average say 100ppg and you said that that isn't good enough because there are probably 15 midfielders that may average more than him. This is true, there probably will be around 15 guys that average more than 100ppg and if you're targeting the "perfect team" then that isn't good enough. However, as i said, i don't worry about the perfect team too much. For the sakes of this argument, i'll say that i think Anthony will average 100ppg this year. I could pick say someone like Murphy or Stanton etc who are priced at 100ppg, around 415k, or i could pick Anthony priced at 355k. Anthony is priced at 85ppg, so essentially i'm getting the same output as Murphy/Stanton etc for 60k less. That 60k is essentially worth 15ppg. I've noticed a lot of people on here say that they want their 6th midfielder to be averaging 105ppg. That's fair enough, but i've managed to get my 6th midfielder to average 100ppg but i've only spent 85ppg on him if that makes sense? I've therefore got 15ppg in cash saved (in this case 60k) to spend elsewhere on my team. So the 5ppg i'm "losing" as my 6th midfielder i can make up (and more) elsewhere with the saving i made by picking a player who will improve.

I hope that comes across as i intended? Sounds confusing.

I guess the main points i want to get across are:

1. total points is obviously more important than averages
2. perfect team is pretty much not going to be achieved
3. value is important. the best mix of value and spending your cap will produce the best team.

 

[JBrooker03]

@footylover18 +1 for a great (if not slightly long) explanation of your point! and i agree, not necessarily on Liam Anthony, but on the points in that post. Good stuff.

 

[footylover18]

@footylover18 +1 for a great (if not slightly long) explanation of your point! and i agree, not necessarily on Liam Anthony, but on the points in that post. Good stuff.

I'm glad you could make sense of it. Anthony was used as the example. The point is, the best 6th and 7th backs and forwards or the best 6th mids etc aren't necessarily the 6th and 7th highest averaging players, quite often they are the guys who were bought for unders who went on to average well above their price and close to elite (ie Malceski, Waters, Podsiadly, etc). The money saved there is what allows you to get the guys that aren't "value" but produce a huge average (Swan, Sandilands etc).

 

[Benno_900]

Good post, I actually agree with most of what you said there.

In a normal season, picking a 100 ppg mid is like an 85 ppg forward. That was moreso my point regarding midfielders in general, not really aimed at Anthony's value.

 

[Ollies]

FL I agree with your general points about value but the question was raised about Anthony and I don't think he holds up well as an example.

Last year we picked Malceski and Waters with little expectation of them becoming keepers. We picked them because with their large discounts they were worth the risk for the reward they potentially offered. Became keepers....bonus!

Anthony is $355k and has only a 10% discount. To select him you would have to be selecting him as a keeper. He has played 10 and 7 games in his 2 years in AFL.

For $355k I would rather select a durable back or forward keeper.

 

[dee64]

FL I agree with your general points about value but the question was raised about Anthony and I don't think he holds up well as an example.

Last year we picked Malceski and Waters with little expectation of them becoming keepers. We picked them because with their large discounts they were worth the risk for the reward they potentially offered. Became keepers....bonus!

Anthony is $355k and has only a 10% discount. To select him you would have to be selecting him as a keeper. He has played 10 and 7 games in his 2 years in AFL.

For $355k I would rather select a durable back or forward keeper.

To do that you would have to substitute Anthony for a starting rookie mid. Bearing in mind all the factors at play this year, I found it really difficult to find backs and forwards in the $350k range. The durable high scoring players are all in the $400k range.

Injuries are a dream team fact of life, and assuming that a player has a full preseason injury free and is performing well, and don't see any reason in not picking him.

BTW, great post FL18.

 

[Ollies]

To do that you would have to substitute Anthony for a starting rookie mid. Bearing in mind all the factors at play this year, I found it really difficult to find backs and forwards in the $350k range. The durable high scoring players are all in the $400k range.

Injuries are a dream team fact of life, and assuming that a player has a full preseason injury free and is performing well, and don't see any reason in not picking him.

BTW, great post FL18.

Why do you say you need to replace Anthony with a rookie? There are several mid pricers well wworth considering in the mids including Zaharakis and Fyfe who both come with the added benefit of being DP meaning when it comes time to upgrade them you can upgrade in either position to take advantage of the best target assuming you have the linkage in place.

There are also several backs and forwards around the $350-360k mark who are more likely to score at keeper average in those positions for the full year than is Anthony in the mids imo. Duffield, Newman ROK spring to mind.

Your point about injuries being a fact of life is correct but given that unexpected injuries will hit other members of your team, in my opinion it is foolhardy to consciously pick players with a history of durability issues as keepers.