DT 2011 Mids Thread

[footylover18]

FL I agree with your general points about value but the question was raised about Anthony and I don't think he holds up well as an example.

Last year we picked Malceski and Waters with little expectation of them becoming keepers. We picked them because with their large discounts they were worth the risk for the reward they potentially offered. Became keepers....bonus!

Anthony is $355k and has only a 10% discount. To select him you would have to be selecting him as a keeper. He has played 10 and 7 games in his 2 years in AFL.

For $355k I would rather select a durable back or forward keeper.

Anthony was used as an example, i stated clearly that i was using him as an example and that i was assuming that he would average 100 on the year. I used that as an example because the previous poster said that 100ppg from him wasn't good enough.

 

[Ollies]

Anthony was used as an example, i stated clearly that i was using him as an example and that i was assuming that he would average 100 on the year. I used that as an example because the previous poster said that 100ppg from him wasn't good enough.

OK fair enough but when you use an example you do so to illustrate a point you are trying to make. The point you were making is that you could pick someone below 105ppg average as 6th mid and still win the car. Agree wholeheartedly and said as much in my post. What i was questionning was the selection of Anthony as a good example based on his (lack of ) durability and the close proximity of his pricing to premium pricing meaning he had to be selected as a keeper. I was trying to put the case for durability being paramount for keepers.

I was saying that at that price point it made more strategic sense to select a back or forward keeper rathefr than take the risk with Anthony.

 

[strung_out7]

swan pendlebery bartel marcmurph foley ward ( mzungu harris hibberd) for me

 

[Spider Klein]

It has been said before and it still stands true it isn't just he bargains you can find pre season it's the trading during the season that will make or break. I know the argument is whether to go for the perfect team and whether Anthony (as example) will average enough to be 6th keeper but you can take the risk pre season and then it's how you react that will determine if your choice is right or wrong in the long run.

You can take a punt on someone around the 350k price range as long as
1. you are prepared to jump off if it is clearly not going to happen. and usually jump to a rookie you missed.

2. You don't get too attached to a guy averaging 92ish and will jump ship if a proven gun premium drops too far and is a cheap upgrade (like Monty went to 420ish at one stage last year I think)


We have 4 extra trades this year so if you select well so byes aren't going to burn any you can afford to select anthony in your starting side even if he doesn't become a keeper as long as you react correctly to the situation after 4-6 rounds.

 

[azza7071]

footylover i think your examples are very valid but i have to agree with waht the others are saying, i kno its only an example but liam anthony contains a lot of question marks over durability, so selecting him as a keeper, compared to someone a bit more expensive and durable who will probably average the same as him, lets says stanton/mitchell etc for now. your are most likely paying that extra 50k knowing that they will most likely play more games than anthony. anthony could well play 24 games this season, but when your selecting keepers, do you really want to take the risk.

while we are on this, what are people's thoughts on sam mitchell. very tempted to pick him as a unique midfielder, who i can probably see increasing their average.

another questions that keeps circling in my head is beams vs sidebottom vs wellingham. surely one of them is going to really breakout this year, the problem is which one. based on the nab cup, i had wellingham in my side, however i read an article on the afl website where wellingham stated that he absolutely loved playing through the guts, however he still expects to be given defensive duties from time to tome. this really put me off of him and is currently out of myside. but watching the way he exploded last year and really improved, and now looks even beter in nab cup, he has so much potential to be a straight swap for a premium. has averaged 57, 65 and 82 to date and could breakout this year. but liek i said the defensive duties thing put me off. thoughts?

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

You would want a keeper if your picking Sidebottom, Beams or Wellingham. I would go far cheaper if you were looking to make money and off load to a premium type player. Palmer, Cotchin, Ward could be that player.

 

[54Dogs]

He was at Essendon for years. We had a shit midfield for years. And he still couldn't get a game.

What does that tell you?

Swallow was at North not getting a game in a V ordinary midfield.

I think it said more about the coach than the player

 

[54Dogs]

footylover i think your examples are very valid but i have to agree with waht the others are saying, i kno its only an example but liam anthony contains a lot of question marks over durability, so selecting him as a keeper, compared to someone a bit more expensive and durable who will probably average the same as him, lets says stanton/mitchell etc for now. your are most likely paying that extra 50k knowing that they will most likely play more games than anthony. anthony could well play 24 games this season, but when your selecting keepers, do you really want to take the risk.

You are still missing the point. Don't focus on Anthony.

Remove the words Liam Anthony and just call him PLAYER X.

That's what the post is about

 

[pillager]

Ok, well i just think that the idea of achieving the perfect team is a nice thing to aim for but in reality doesn't happen. Particularly this year, the focus really should be on minimising donuts, not necessarily getting the top 6 mids, top 7 backs and forwards and top 2 rucks etc. I'll use the example of Sandilands, it might make you feel like your team looks better if you have Sandilands in your lineup but if Sandilands misses 3 games on the year (highly likely), then are you really better off? Let's say he averages 95, but misses 3 games, that's 1805 points, or i could pick say Jolly who history would suggest is highly likely to play 22 games, if he averages 85 but plays 22 games he would produce 1870. A simple example, and i do recognise that with DP and a good backup that the numbers for sandilands could change slightly but the point remains. You don't necessarily need the highest scoring averages, you need the most total points.

Another example of why the perfect team is not going to be achieved. Take Malceski and Waters of last year. I bet pretty much every team that finished very highly had those two players starting for them in the backline, yet neither of them finished in the top 7 backs (i dont think). It's not like anyone would've upgraded them to get the "perfect" backline. Malceski and Waters were both far more valuable than say Gilbert even though Gilbert finished with a higher average and the #2 overall back. The money saved in going with Malceski/Waters was what made them so key, this brings me to my next example.......

A second point i'd like to raise is that you don't need the best 6 midfielders. Going on last years' numbers there are probably 3 midfielders that are head and shoulders above the rest. I'm not counting GAJ because i feel his situation has changed too much and i'm not counting Chappy because he's also a forward. Now, i said that Anthony could average say 100ppg and you said that that isn't good enough because there are probably 15 midfielders that may average more than him. This is true, there probably will be around 15 guys that average more than 100ppg and if you're targeting the "perfect team" then that isn't good enough. However, as i said, i don't worry about the perfect team too much. For the sakes of this argument, i'll say that i think Anthony will average 100ppg this year. I could pick say someone like Murphy or Stanton etc who are priced at 100ppg, around 415k, or i could pick Anthony priced at 355k. Anthony is priced at 85ppg, so essentially i'm getting the same output as Murphy/Stanton etc for 60k less. That 60k is essentially worth 15ppg. I've noticed a lot of people on here say that they want their 6th midfielder to be averaging 105ppg. That's fair enough, but i've managed to get my 6th midfielder to average 100ppg but i've only spent 85ppg on him if that makes sense? I've therefore got 15ppg in cash saved (in this case 60k) to spend elsewhere on my team. So the 5ppg i'm "losing" as my 6th midfielder i can make up (and more) elsewhere with the saving i made by picking a player who will improve.

I hope that comes across as i intended? Sounds confusing.

I guess the main points i want to get across are:

1. total points is obviously more important than averages
2. perfect team is pretty much not going to be achieved
3. value is important. the best mix of value and spending your cap will produce the best team.

Nice post.

I agree that the perfect team is unachievable, however...

This year we have 24 trades and more DP utility players. Despite the byes, a small percentage of teams are going to avoid donuts and use their trades very efficiently. I imagine the point differential between the top finishing teams will be far greater this year.

If you want the car, go hard or go home.

So to sum it up, the perfect team may be difficult to achieve, but someone will come damn close.

 

[footylover18]

Nice post.

I agree that the perfect team is unachievable, however...

This year we have 24 trades and more DP utility players. Despite the byes, a small percentage of teams are going to avoid donuts and use their trades very efficiently. I imagine the point differential between the top finishing teams will be far greater this year.

If you want the car, go hard or go home.

So to sum it up, the perfect team may be difficult to achieve, but someone will come damn close.

Yeh, maybe. One of the points i raised in the post is that 100ppg from your 6th mid is fine. People obsess about their 6th mid scoring at least 105ppg because that's what it takes to make the perfect team. You're far more likely to finish higher by ensuring you have excellent coverage on your bench for byes/injuries/suspensions than you are by worrying about minor details like 100ppg vs 105ppg from your 6th mid. I would and always have been prepared to skimp a little on my starting team to ensure my bench is up to a standard i'm happy with.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

No good if your 6th midfielder is avg 110 and the other 5 are avg 112. Your gonna get beat by a 125 avg Swan, 4 112 avgs and a 100 avg player as your 6th.

People need to look at it as a group/combo/collection.

 

[old_poly]

Nice post.

I agree that the perfect team is unachievable, however...

This year we have 24 trades and more DP utility players. Despite the byes, a small percentage of teams are going to avoid donuts and use their trades very efficiently. I imagine the point differential between the top finishing teams will be far greater this year.

If you want the car, go hard or go home.

So to sum it up, the perfect team may be difficult to achieve, but someone will come damn close.

I'll be aiming for as close to the perfect team as I can get. The argument re: Liam Anthony may actually show that its possible to have Anthony and still have the perfect team.

Salary cap and other restraints this year will mean that it is highly unlikely the team with the best 7 backs, 6 mids, 2 rucks and 7 forwards is possible to achieve, so the "perfect team" may be made up of players averaging less still achieving the perfect team. This discussion also doesnt take into account that a player may average considerably higher scores AFTER being traded in, so a player that doesnt rank in say the top 6 mids could actually be a part of the perfect team because they are traded in after round 13 (lets us pendles as an example here) while averaging 95ppg, then increase output to 123ppg from there on until seasons end, without any further byes...

I'll post my team in the "post your team" thread after round 1 lockout

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

The "Perfect team" has to be defined only as the top 7,6,2,7 players in each positions regarding total scores for the season? does it not

People who aim for the perfect team will fall far behind.

Why do i say this? People wont be starting some top 6 midfielders come end of 2011 eg: Hayes, Boyd, Montagna, Barlow who ever they may be. These players may never become a juicy enough price to upgrade to at any time during the year, and thus people will be waiting way to long to upgrade to these specific players.

So aiming for the perfect team may actually be a bad idea.

 

[Athomas]

Aim for the perfect team with perfect depth too

It's definitely going to be a balance between getting the best 22 on the park but depth is critical as well.

Definitely a unique year, depth won't be as important next year. Think they will go back to 2 on the bench even?

 

[azza7071]

You would want a keeper if your picking Sidebottom, Beams or Wellingham. I would go far cheaper if you were looking to make money and off load to a premium type player. Palmer, Cotchin, Ward could be that player.

but the likes of siddebottom and wellingham are 30k more expensive than cotchin and palmer, play in better sides and look set to score better on a consistent basis. i really want callan ward however i already have boyd so yeah, he is very tempting. i guess it is only one round however that i will need more cover so i guess callan ward is a viable option.

 

[old_poly]

The "Perfect team" has to be defined only as the top 7,6,2,7 players in each positions regarding total scores for the season? does it not

People who aim for the perfect team will fall far behind.

Why do i say this? People wont be starting some top 6 midfielders come end of 2011 eg: Hayes, Boyd, Montagna, Barlow who ever they may be. These players may never become a juicy enough price to upgrade to at any time during the year, and thus people will be waiting way to long to upgrade to these specific players.

So aiming for the perfect team may actually be a bad idea.

Aspiring for mediocrity will get you mediocrity in a best case scenario.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

^^ So if people are aiming for the perfect team and believe that involves Hayes and Montagna yet they dont start with them in the midfield from round 1 and they dont drop in price at all. People are willing to wait it out till round 16 and onwards. That is suicide. I actually use to do this when i only knew how to pick good starting teams, now i know how to trade properly and the rewards are so much different.

Value, value, value. Will always be a motto in DT for me.

 

[mezaire]

^^ So if people are aiming for the perfect team and believe that involves Hayes and Montagna yet they dont start with them in the midfield from round 1 and they dont drop in price at all. People are willing to wait it out till round 16 and onwards. That is suicide. I actually use to do this when i only knew how to pick good starting teams, now i know how to trade properly and the rewards are so much different.

Value, value, value. Will always be a motto in DT for me.

Hang on, you're saying you should have all the players you want for your perfect team in your starting team?? Impossible!!!

For instance I beleive the perfect team at rd. 24 will involve Swan and Pendles but there is no way I am starting with both, OR, I want 6 premium mids in my perfect team but there is no way I can afford that.
Do either of the above statements mean I will have an inferior rd. 24 team or not have a chance overall, I doubt it!!!

The perfect team is for me about 30% starting with the right team, 50% trading in the right players at the right time and 20% pure luck!!!

 

[old_poly]

^^ So if people are aiming for the perfect team and believe that involves Hayes and Montagna yet they dont start with them in the midfield from round 1 and they dont drop in price at all. People are willing to wait it out till round 16 and onwards. That is suicide. I actually use to do this when i only knew how to pick good starting teams, now i know how to trade properly and the rewards are so much different.

Value, value, value. Will always be a motto in DT for me.

I'm not really sure you even read my post, nor am I sure which post you are "pointing" upward to...

I'm not suggesting you need to start with a team full of premiums, nor am I suggesting you need to finish the year with a team full of players with the highest averages. You simply need to start the year with the right premiums, the right rookies and the right mid-pricers, then trade effectively and not make any dud picks or get unlucky.

The true perfect team cannot be known until seasons end when hindsight is on your side. If one could be bothered they could analyse every players score from every round, fluctuations in value etc and work out the perfect trading strategy to avoid all injuries, donuts, dud picks and to take advantage of players purple patches and down periods, to calculate the maximum score possible in that year as a total.

That team could involve having Jeff Garlett in your rnd 24 team traded in that week because he scores 130 in his best performance of the year, but nobody could know that would happen and are unlikely to trade him in at that point in the season.

So many variables contribute to what will end up being the "perfect team" and though possible, it would be ridiculously unlikely for someone to achieve it. All on can do is get as close to it as possible, given that its unlikely anyone at all will even start with the squad that ends up being the "perfect" starting team...

I dont care how far away my team is from perfect if I still win the car... but it doesn't mean I wont try.

 

[DB10]

Rory Sloane is absolutely dominating against Richmond, getting so much of the ball be it inside or outside. he's really tempting me to go with two mid-pricers in midfield.

 

[Hu$tler]

Rory Sloane is absolutely dominating against Richmond, getting so much of the ball be it inside or outside. he's really tempting me to go with two mid-pricers in midfield.

Same, and I have so many in mind. No early byes for Adelaide too I don't think.

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

Same, and I have so many in mind. No early byes for Adelaide too I don't think.

Round 2 bye IIRC

 

[azza7071]

what do people think of foley and cotchin in terms of being tagged? they both present as very good dt options at the moment, especially with richmond having late byes, they are perfect for that quick upgrade to a fallen premium. however, i am worried that either of the two are going to get tagged. a few times last year i noticed cotchin being tagged despite his ongoing injuries and lack of games. with deledio going back and no other major threats in the midfield despite martin possibly, do you think they will get the tag?

i have the same question with andrew swallow. i know it is nab cup, but he has pumped out some enticing scores, but once again i see him attracting most of the attention behind harvey, and if swallow did get tagged, im not willing to take the risk on anthony at this point in time. do you think I am right on saying these players wil attract the number 1 and 2 tags in their respective teams?

 

[samwise]

What are the cons of Sewell? Any Hawks fans think he may be a good candidate for the sub in some games? I think he is being overlooked to quickly.

 

[bombermick]

What do people think about Sammy Mitchell? Plays in a side many expect to go deep into September and is a clearance king.