DudleyDocker
Cancelled
Our season summed up - sometimes you just need a hug...
Well, here we are at the midpoint of season 2017, and fair to say we have exceeded the expectations of some, and failed to meet the expectations of others.
After a mixed JLT preseason series, coach Ross Lyon went into Rounds 1 and 2 with what was essentially a “most experienced available best 22” in his eyes. There is a lot of speculation about why he did this, but suffice to say we were soundly spanked by Geelong and then Port Adelaide and the thinking quickly shifted.
Round 3 saw 6 changes including debuts for Harley Balic and Griffin Logue, and games for younger players in Brady Grey and Ethan Hughes. We also saw the reintroduction of Hayden Crozier and Tommy Sheridan for the first time in the season.
It was like a light had been switched on, and the constipated, error riddled play of the first two rounds gave way to a free-flowing error riddled game which saw the Dockers eventually run out winners by 16 points.
This was followed by nail-biting wins against Melbourne (on the MCG) and North Melbourne (at home) before another frustrating belting at the hands of the old enemy. I’m sure most of us would have swapped the two prior wins for one against West Coast but sadly that was not to be.
A solid win against Essendon, a close win against Richmond at the MCG then a good win against Carlton had us sitting in the top 8, and many supporters were starting to believe that we had turned a corner. Little did they know that just around the corner was a 100-point belting by Adelaide, a loss against Collingwood at home, then to top it off a 10-goal smashing by cellar dwellers Brisbane.
Which leaves us at the halfway point of the season on 6 wins and 6 losses, but with an abysmal percentage of 78.5, lower than all but Hawthorn and Brisbane.
After the season we had in 2016 and the first 2 rounds of this year, I think most of us would have taken a 6 / 6 record at the halfway point and raced off yelling “start the car”! However, after round 9 when we were sitting at 6 / 3 most of us are disappointed to be where we are now – not just by the losses, but by the way we have capitulated in most of the games we have lost.
Are we contending or are we rebuilding?
Firstly, let me be very clear about this – we are not contending for a flag this year. We are a very slim chance to make the finals, but looking at our fixture from here on in that would be a minor miracle.
In signing Ross Lyon last year through to the end of the 2020 season, the board sent a very powerful message that we were going into a rebuild phase and that they believed (rightly or wrongly) that Lyon was the man for the job. Depending on your interpretation of the noises coming out of the club we are either in the first year or the second year of a rebuild.
I believe last year was a “nothing” year, in that we did not have the personnel to commence a rebuild, but serious and long-term injuries to key players meant we were entirely uncompetitive for most of the season. Once it became obvious that finals were off the table, we started mixing the team up a bit, trying different players and trying players in different positions, but really the age profile of the club was skewed heavily towards older, more experienced “role players” and it was obvious we were not going to get a flag until that changed.
So, at the end of the season we cut deeply, including some much-loved club favourites and started the real business of rebuilding the team. This is an ongoing process, and along the way there will be successes and failures – changing an older player for a younger player does not guarantee success, and we have had our fair share of failures at the drafting and trading table in the past. It would be naïve to think we are going to get them all right in future, so some of our changes will end up as busts. We just have to keep trying until we get the right mix, and for that I think four years is a realistic timeframe. I’m sure we all have ideas on how this should happen, but for me I would be happy with something along the lines of:
2017: Finish with 8 – 10 wins (10th – 14th position). Rotate another 10 players through a combination of trades and drafting. No trades over 26 years old!
2018: Finish with 12 – 14 wins (6th to 9th position). Rotate another 8 – 10 players depending on how well we are travelling.
2019: Finish with 14 – 16 wins (3rd – 6th position) and at very least threaten for a grand final berth. Rotate another 6 – 8 players, by now we should be swapping out some of the unsuccessful trades and drafts from 2016 and 2017. None of the current 30+ year old should remain on the list.
2020: Finish in the top 2, anything less than a grand final appearance will be unacceptable, and Lyon will be looking for another coaching role. By this stage we should have a list with a mid to late 20 modal age bracket, ensuring we remain a force for a number of years (similar to the 2012 – 2015 era but with the addition of at least one flag AND continued rotation of the list).
Changes at 2016 season’s end…
Outs:
Matthew Pavlich (retired)
Michael Barlow (delisted)
Sean Hurley (delisted)
Tanner Smith (delisted)
Anthony Morabito (delisted)
Tendai Mzungu (delisted)
Matt de Boer (delisted)
Clancee Pearce (delisted)
Jack Hannath (delisted)
Brady Grey (delisted)
Josh Deluca (delisted)
Alex Silvagni (delisted)
Chris Mayne (free agent - Collingwood)
Ins (with my best estimate of their roles):
Joel Hamling - KPD (traded from Western Bulldogs)
Brad Hill - Outside midfielder (traded from Hawthorn)
Shane Kersten - 2nd / 3rd tall forward (traded from Geelong Cats)
Cam McCarthy - 2nd / 3rd tall forward (traded from GWS Giants)
Griffin Logue - Tall defender / potential big-bodies midfielder (National draft pick 8)
Sean Darcy - Ruck (National draft pick 38)
Brennan Cox - Tall forward / tall back (probably not KPP size) (National draft pick 41)
Luke Ryan - Mid-sized defender / distributor (National draft pick 66)
Taylin Duman - Tall defender (Rookie draft pick 3)
Luke Strnadica - Forward / Ruck (Rookie draft pick 21)
Brady Grey - Small forward / defender / inside midfielder (Rookie draft pick 38)
Joshua Deluca-Cardillo - Small forward / inside midfielder (Rookie draft pick 50)
Potential changes at 2017 season’s end
Bear in mind that we can only change a limited number of players in one year (hence why a rebuild takes a number of years) and this is a personal opinion. There will be many who disagree with all, but hopefully a few who agree with most of the changes.
Should go:
Zac Dawson
Garrick Ibbotson
Jonathon Griffin
Nic Suban
Zac Clark
Shane Yarran
At risk of leaving:
Harley Balic
Ed Langdon
Lachie Weller
Nathan Fyfe
Borderline, depending on form and fitness:
Tom Sheridan
Hayden Crozier
Hayden Ballantyne
David Mundy
Aaron Sandilands
Michael Johnson
Matthew Uebergang
Brady Grey
Josh Deluca-Cardillo
Lucky this year due to contract status – have one more year to impress:
Danyle Pearce
Michael Apeness
Cameron Sutcliffe
Lee Spurr
What are our recruiting priorities for this year?
1. Key forward. We currently have Matt Taberner who is a rookie upgrade as our only available key forward. Michael Apeness has been very injury prone, Luke Strnadica is a possibility but is probably 2 years away from being at AFL levels of fitness. Matthew Uebergang looks to have grown to KPF size and has shown some promise before his injury, but is yet to be tested at AFL level.
2. Ruck. With Aaron Sandilands approaching the end of his career, Jon Griffin proving ineffectual and Zac Clark unable to get on the field we are in desperate need of a transitional ruckman while Sean Darcy and possibly Luke Strnadica develop. We can’t recruit a young ruckman to fill this gap – we have a good one already in Sean Darcy – but need someone with an AFL ready body who can at least compete in the centre square and is not a liability around the ground. This will require us to trade someone in or go to the second-tier competitions to see if there is anyone who fits the bill.
3. Small forward. With Hayden Ballantyne coming to the end of his career and Michael Walters being used more in a midfield role, we desperately need a crumbing small forward who can hit the scorecard regularly. Josh Deluca is a possibility, but he is probably more in the Brady Grey mold – i.e. tough, defensive forward who can kick goals – rather than a pure goalkicking forward. Again, we may have to look to the WAFL / SANFL / VFL for a ready-made player while we develop our own.
4. Key Defender. Hopefully Alex Pearce comes back into the mix next year, as he is seen by most as our potential 10 year centre half back. With him, Hamling, Collins and possibly Cox and Uebergang we have a number of options in the tall defender department. The problem is that the only ones who have really been tested and has proven themselves are Pearce and Hamling, the rest are either untried or have not excelled to this point. We could do with another tall defender as backup, possibly someone around 195 – 197 to play on the opposition tall forwards.
5. Midfielders. While you can never have enough quality midfielders I believe this is not an area we need to address as a priority this year. Apart from a couple of our best midfielders coming back from long layoffs and injury, I believe we have a strong core, and some very good young guys coming through – e.g. Blakely, Weller, Langdon. We also have some good young players with the potential to be groomed as midfielders, and I think that should be the focus for the next year. Let’s see how guys like Darcy Tucker, Griffin Logue and Ethan Hughes go once they start getting an AFL level tank. We also have a handy young bloke in the wings called Harley Bennell who might be a useful addition if we can get him back on the track.
Player ratings for the season so far (not counting Peel form).
Hayden Ballantyne: 0/10 Has not been able to get on the park at all this year, and sadly is coming to the end of a very good career.
Griffin Logue: 3/10 Has had 4 games as a first-year player, and will get more before the year is out. Showed glimpses of what he might become.
Zac Dawson: 2/10 Played the first two games of the year before being dropped. Hard to see him ever playing for Fremantle again.
Sean Darcy: 0/10 Has yet to play a game, but most believe he is not far away from getting a run. Has worked really hard to drop kilos, but probably a long way from AFL levels of fitness.
Garrick Ibbotson: 4/10 Has played 10 games, but has been a long way from his AA form of a few seasons ago. Looks like the pace of the game has moved beyond him, and unlikely to be a part of the push forward.
Danyle Pearce: 4/10 Has played 5 games, and been dropped twice to Peel. His long bombs into the forward line were not such a liability when we had great defensive forwards, but he doesn’t seem able to adapt to a more pinpoint kicking game.
Nat Fyfe: 7/10 Always judged against a tough standard because of what we know he is capable of. Had a year out with injury and has battled manfully, but looks to be struggling with injury or fitness. Still one of the premier midfielders in the game and will hopefully get back to his best.
Nic Suban: 3/10 Played the first two games before being banished to Peel. At his best was an average “role player” but that role no longer exists in AFL (some call for it in Rugby Union). Has been a loyal servant of the club, but his lack of pace will probably limit any real involvement in our push forward.
Bradley Hill: 7/10 Is he the recruit of the year? At his best, he has been dynamic in his end to end gut running and has shown he will be a great acquisition. The only knock on him is that he can go missing at times. Also needs to take some of the lairising out of his game and take the high percentage option when it is available.
Michael Walters: 7/10 Has played all 12 games, and at times has looked fantastic while at other times he has had some really flat patches. Whether this was due to injury or something else, he seems to have thrived since being given more time in the midfield. The problem is we need him scoring goals – can we clone him?
Tom Sheridan: 4/10 Has been in and out of the team, and just doesn’t seem able to impose himself on games. He is at that stage of his career where he should be consistently good, but he is consistently inconsistent. A high draft pick who had been disappointing overall.
Jon Griffin: 3/10 Has been a great servant of the club, and deserves to be remembered as a guy who gave his all on the field. Unfortunately, he is just too slow at the top level and is only playing now because we have no options.
Harley Bennell: 0/10 A perpetual tease who is probably one more injury or off field discretion away from being delisted. A shame because he is potentially a top 10 player in the competition. Fingers crossed!
Lachie Weller: 6/10 Is really developing into a consistent performer and has shown versatility in playing back, midfield and forward at different times. My main knock on him this year has been his kicking, which always looks immaculate but has been very inconsistent in terms of hitting targets.
Ethan Hughes: 5/10 Unlucky to be dropped last week, as he seems to be growing nicely into a solid defensive player. May have broken a team rule or missed a critical KPI but I suspect his Peel days will be short-lived. At times his skills can be a little suspect, but he seems to be calm in traffic and generally takes good options.
David Mundy: 6/10 I would score him higher as he has been a star in some games, but he has had too many times where he has just gone missing. As a leader of the club and a key inside midfielder this has hurt us badly. Still an A grader and at his best is one of our most important.
Hayden Crozier: 5/10 Came in after the round 2 blood bath and has retained his spot. Must have been close to being dropped a couple of times as he has faded in and out of games, which seems to have been his career story. May be better suited to defence, and might get that opportunity when Ballantyne returns.
Darcy Tucker: 4/10 Has been in and out a couple of times, and has not yet lived up to his promise of last year. Probably needs another pre-season under his belt, but looks a good long-term prospect.
Connor Blakely: 8/10 Might be scoring him a touch high, but for his age I think he has really stepped up and shown leadership at times this year. Has been given tough “run with” roles and carried them out well, and has also been one of our cleanest extractors. Lots to improve, but looks like becoming an even better player than Tom Lamb.
Matt Taberner: 3/10 Has played one good game, and has tried hard in a couple of others but generally has not been given a sustained run at it. We need to either play him for a large chunk of games or leave him at Peel until he meets whatever standard they require of him. It must be demoralising playing three games then being dropped – over and over. Probably lucky we don’t have any alternative KPFs.
Joel Hamling: 8/10 Another gun recruit from the off-season, Joel has been a rock in defence. Has had a couple of down games, but considering the amount of ball coming towards him and the level of support he has around him he has done a great job. Hard to believe he has only played 35 games.
Shane Kersten: 3/10 Has played every game, but should consider himself pretty lucky in my view. Has had some good moments and at times has done some amazing things, but really doesn’t get involved nearly enough. With his size and mobility I think he has potential to be a good 2nd or 3rd forward, but I would be happy to see him sent back to Peel to refocus.
Cam McCarthy: 4/10 See comments for Kersten – I think both these guys have looked too often for the easy ball out the back rather than working hard to create opportunities. In Cam’s case this might be a fitness thing because he seems to have fallen off from his earlier work. Will be a good forward for us next year.
Harley Balic: 3/10 Showed some really nice glimpses in the 4 games he played before returning home for personal reasons. Would love to see him get sorted and play for us, but this is looking less likely with each passing week. May request a trade at the end of the year, hopefully we get something for him if that is the case.
Alex Pearce: 0/10 Has not managed to get on the park at all after suffering complications with a broken leg. Is seen as a key component of our backline, and hopefully can get back to playing with Peel in the next 6 weeks or so.
Ed Langdon: 5/10 Depending who you listen to he is a ball burner or a running machine (or both). Has shown some really good sign this year and could become an integral part of our young midfield. There is some talk of him wanting to return to Victoria, but I would not be too concerned.
Lachie Neale: 8/10 Had a late start to the year because of surgery, and was a little slow to get to his best. Over the last 6 weeks he has generally been very good, while not reaching the heights of last year. Should get better as the season progresses and is an A grader without question.
Brady Grey: 5/10 Came in for round 3 and has played every game since (although he injured a hamstring on the weekend). A tough, uncompromising player who will never back down from a contest. Will never have silky skills, but makes up for that in his inspirational attack on the ball and the opposition – lifts the players around him. (Did anyone guess he’s my official buddy?)
Zac Clark: 0/10 Again, has not been able to get on the field due to injury. In grave danger of being delisted, and if not he should be banned from ever attending a music festival again. At his best he was a very good player for us, but unlikely to be that again.
Aaron Sandilands: 8/10 Perhaps our most important player at the moment. When he has played he has been dominant in ruck contests and provides a target for the long outlet kick from defence. Has had some injury concerns, but should be back after the bye. Hoping we can wring one more year out of him while we develop some viable alternatives.
Stephen Hill: 7/10 Was probably our best player until he injured his hamstring, and since then has looked like a shadow of himself. At his best is a match winner and will hopefully come back from the bye at full throttle.
Cameron Sutcliffe: 3/10 Has been in and out of the side, and when he has been in has been mostly ineffectual. Turns the ball over in terrible positions, and has not really been able to replicate his form of a few years ago. At best a support player in a strong defence, but as it stands he is a liability.
Lee Spurr: 4/10 Part of the leadership group and a player whose courage is beyond question. Having said that, he has also burned the ball too often coming out of defence, and has been exposed for speed on a number of occasions. May just have reached his highest potential and if that is the case he needs to be replaced at some point with a faster, better kick.
Michael Apeness: 0/10 Unfortunately another who hasn’t been able to get onto the park. If we can get him fit he can play a valuable role as a forward / support ruckman, but he seems to be injury prone. Would be very handy right about now!
Brennan Cox: 2/10 Played his first game last weekend and from all accounts (I could not bring myself to watch the game) he showed glimpses of potential. Is a good size and has shown he can play both ends of the ground, although he seems more settled as a defender. Something to work with perhaps?
Michael Johnson: 7/10 Started slowly, but has gradually built back to somewhere near his best. Unfortunately, father time is catching up with Michael and he has lost a bit of pace, but still probably our best rebounding defenders.
Luke Ryan: 4/10 Has played the last two games and in that short time has shown a lot of promise. He was recruited for his disposal skills and already he is showing he could be another distributor from the half back line. Plenty to work with.
Sam Collins: 2/10 Played his first game on the weekend and from all accounts was serviceable without being great. Proved last year he has some ability and is big enough to play on some of the large forwards, but probably not good enough at this stage to be one of our two key defenders. Definitely solid depth and should be persevered with.
Josh Deluca (Rookie): 0/10 Has not played a game this year, but is probably right on the verge of a debut. Might bring some much-needed zip around the ball.
Matthew Uebergang (R): 0/10 Another who has yet to play a game. Has shown some potential at both ends of the ground and a possibility to get back for Peel this year.
Ryan Nyhuis (R): 0/10 Has not played yet, but he is another on the verge of a recall – has been upgraded.
Taylin Duman (R): 0/10 Has not played seniors, but shows some promise at Peel. Is sneaky tall (192cm) but very lightly framed. Will need a couple of pre-seasons to get to AFL size, but looks a good prospect.
Luke Strnadica (R): 0/10 Young key forward / ruck who grew up supporting the Dockers. Yet to play a game and needs to work on his fitness and work ethic, but lots to like in his marking and kicking.
So where are Fremantle really at?
We are a list in transition, probably one year into a four year rebuild. If you had offered me 6 / 6
at the mid-season break I would have taken it in a heartbeat after last year’s debacle of a season.
There will be a lot more disappointment to come before we become a good side again. I remember
Dennis Cometti saying years ago that sides on the way up and sides on the way down become very
inconsistent. I would like to think that we are on the way up, and we have certainly demonstrated
admirable inconsistency. As we rotate players through the team and through different roles, we lose the instinctive understanding that players develop playing together over a long period. The loss of great team players like Pavlich, McPharlin, Barlow, Crowley, DeBoer, Mzungu, Clancee Pearce and Chris Mayne has hurt us from the perspective that they all knew their roles and they generally all played them beautifully from week to week. We now have guys who have to think too much about their game rather than instinctively knowing what is required. This will not change overnight, and while individual acts of brilliance will occasionally get us over the line, real consistent winning form will come when we have a fairly settled best 22 and some experienced guys behind them we can call on when we need them.
If we can keep and develop the likes of Weller, Langdon, Blakely, Tucker and Logue alongside our A-Graders then inject a few more links in the chain we have every chance of becoming a force again.
Is Ross Lyon the man to get us there? I have no idea, but he will get the opportunity and I for one will not be sharpening my pitchfork until this time next year. Until then, let's all enjoy the ride!
OVERALL DUDLEY RATING FOR 2017 SO FAR: 5/10
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