Dunkley

[magpies2013]

Peoples prediction for Dunkly by election. Living in the electorate I think it’s too close to call. My Eliza being strong Liberal and Frankston nth being strong Labor. Will come down to the people in Langwarrin Carrum Downs and Frankston central. Driving around the area and visiting shops all you see is Liberal advertising for Nathan Conroy and hardly see any for the Alp candidate. Peta Murphy R.IP was a popular and much loved member which could help Jodie Belyea however the Murdoch media are doing their best for Nathan Conroy

 

[Rob R]

ALP with the same or close to the same margin as last time (55-56 / 44-44 LNP). libs should have closed the margin but Duttons out of touch performance and the hard right messaging in the seat will turn potential swing voters back to the ALP.

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[Kyptastic]

I think Turnout is going to play a big part in the result. Both the Aston (down 6%) and Fadden (down 14%) byelections had lower turnout than at the general election. I would imagine that a lot of the people who voted One Nation and UAP at the last election and the Liberals would be hoping to get back might just not turn up to vote.

 

[nut]

You can get $6.80 for a LNP win on Betfair.
Sportsbet pulled the betting which is telling IMO.
Are Labor a chance of increasing their Margin?

 

[Gavin Excell]

You can get $6.80 for a LNP win on Betfair.
Sportsbet pulled the betting which is telling IMO.
Are Labor a chance of increasing their Margin?

I was looking at that earlier
It's almost as if they have been completely written off
Don't know how Sky will spin it if Labor increases its majority

 

[Rob R]

I was looking at that earlier
It's almost as if they have been completely written off
Don't know how Sky will spin it if Labor increases its majority

Sky will say their usual "lost because not right enough" even though all evidence points they need to move to the centre)and get some leaders)

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[Gavin Excell]

Sky will say their usual "lost because not right enough" even though all evidence points they need to move to the centre)and get some leaders)

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Liberal Party really should be going close to winning a seat like Dunkley if have any chance at next year's Fed election

 

[nut]

Sky will say their usual "lost because not right enough" even though all evidence points they need to move to the centre)and get some leaders)

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Which means Sky is actually failing

 

[Theseventhhamster]

Frankston area has changed a bit in the last ~decade but it's still mostly a working class bogan area. If the Libs can't get a decent result there, it's going to look pretty bad given this is the kind of demographic they are banking on to carry them back to power.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Frankston area has changed a bit in the last ~decade but it's still mostly a working class bogan area. If the Libs can't get a decent result there, it's going to look pretty bad given this is the kind of demographic they are banking on to carry them back to power.

And a mix of wealthy retired types in Mt Eliza

 

[Theseventhhamster]

And a mix of wealthy retired types in Mt Eliza

Yeah Safe Lib ground there.

 

[JackFlash]

This should be an easy win for the Libs based on Albo's performance over the past 12months, but having been born, raised and lived my whole life in Victoria and once upon a time loved the place, i am well aware i live among the most injudicious people in the country. Labor will probably win with only a minor backlash against Labor's insane policies.

 

[nut]

This should be an easy win for the Libs based on Albo's performance over the past 12moths, but having been born, raised and lived my whole life in Victoria and once upon a time loved the place, i am well aware i live among the most injudicious people in the country. Labor will probably win with only a minor backlash against Labor's insane policies.

Name one insane policy

 

[Gough]

Name one insane policy

Or an alternative policy offered by the coalition.

 

[Festerz]

Was wondering what manufactured outrage issue will be used by Dutton this week to grab front page headlines in NewsCorp papers to wrest back control of the Dunkley by-election, but it seems that Advance Australia mob is doing the heavy lifting for him.

Or will he just let Advance Australia do the running for him

 

[QuietB]

Yeah Safe Lib ground there.

Small l lib though?

There has been quite a few articles about how people like Morrison (and Dutton is worse) petrify the small l liberals.

 

[QuietB]

This should be an easy win for the Libs based on Albo's performance over the past 12moths, but having been born, raised and lived my whole life in Victoria and once upon a time loved the place, i am well aware i live among the most injudicious people in the country. Labor will probably win with only a minor backlash against Labor's insane policies.

Move to Queensland and live with all the other failed Victorians then.

 

[Rob R]

This should be an easy win for the Libs based on Albo's performance over the past 12moths, but having been born, raised and lived my whole life in Victoria and once upon a time loved the place, i am well aware i live among the most injudicious people in the country. Labor will probably win with only a minor backlash against Labor's insane policies.

What insane policies, he has had a few that could be graded as a fail or close to but nothing insane and generally even failing hasn't failed as bad as the Libs.

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[magpies2013]

Not sure those betting odds are correct. I’m hearing there will be a big swing to the Libs but not sure it will be the 6.3% required. Still it’s going to be very close. Personally I can’t see why anyone would vote for Nathan Conroy the local major who has voted 3 times to increase rates above the standard. After all the great work of Peta Murphy who was very popular why would you vote liberal.

 

[Vindicater]

This should be an easy win for the Libs based on Albo's performance over the past 12moths, but having been born, raised and lived my whole life in Victoria and once upon a time loved the place, i am well aware i live among the most injudicious people in the country. Labor will probably win with only a minor backlash against Labor's insane policies.

This should be a win for the ALP based purely on Dutton.

 

[Vindicater]

Not sure those betting odds are correct. I’m hearing there will be a big swing to the Libs but not sure it will be the 6.3% required. Still it’s going to be very close. Personally I can’t see why anyone would vote for Nathan Conroy the local major who has voted 3 times to increase rates above the standard. After all the great work of Peta Murphy who was very popular why would you vote liberal.

Where are you hearing this big swing?

 

[DaRick]

What insane policies, he has had a few that could be graded as a fail or close to but nothing insane and generally even failing hasn't failed as bad as the Libs.

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The Voice was a failure, but I don't see how that alone affects him in this seat.

Especially given that Dutton's poison in VIC.

 

[magpies2013]

This should be a win for the ALP based purely on Dutton.

Where are you hearing this big swing?

We will wait and see,would not be surprised that a winner will not be known on Saturday night

 

[Vindicater]

We will wait and see,would not be surprised that a winner will not be known on Saturday night

That did not answer my question.

 

[Rob R]

We will wait and see,would not be surprised that a winner will not be known on Saturday night

Will be known Saturday evening, will be called by 730

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