List Mgmt. "Dynamic Shaping." The new List Management.

[The Punter]

Everything about the system screams "players should get paid more" because players would be more likely to move for money (salary cap space is something we have) and to minimise the effects shady side deals can have.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Everything about the system screams "players should get paid more" because players would be more likely to move for money (salary cap space is something we have) and to minimise the effects shady side deals can have.

Money is relative though.

 

[stfan]

1/ There are different ways to improve, but they are all reliant on picking the right player.

St Kilda has been s**t at picking the right player.



2/ I believe the days of only using the draft are long gone, and the days of only drafting kids even longer gone.

Take this season. Keep Pick 5 and the best avalabale player most likely will be a HBF. Do we need such a player? = No.

Instead use pick 5 in some way to gain Hill, who is the type of player who can make a huge difference to our best 22 and you gain a much better result.

Hence what the OP has stated is true and is the way to go, BUT again you need to be able to pick the right players. Pick the wrong players and you will still either just tread water, or go backwards.

 

[gringo2011]

1/ There are different ways to improve, but they are all reliant on picking the right player.

St Kilda has been s**t at picking the right player.



2/ I believe the days of only using the draft are long gone, and the days of only drafting kids even longer gone.

Take this season. Keep Pick 5 and the best avalabale player most likely will be a HBF. Do we need such a player? = No.

Instead use pick 5 in some way to gain Hill, who is the type of player who can make a huge difference to our best 22 and you gain a much better result.

Hence what the OP has stated is true and is the way to go, BUT again you need to be able to pick the right players. Pick the wrong players and you will still either just tread water, or go backwards.

I'm not sure you can say the draft is dead, look at Port last year. Turned Polec and Pittard into draft picks that got Rozee, Dursma and Butters. All three look like they project from elite to above average at very worst.

What ever method you use you just have to nail it. We were quite good at bringing in players but sucked at the draft under Trout. Last year we got some good players in, just a shame we used most of this years picks.

 

[Drake Huggins]

Geelong just aren't a good example, they actually don't trade a lot compared to other clubs. Hawks since their last Premiership have traded in heavily, Carlton took a mass of ex Giants, Sydney cherry picked well in their heyday with players like Josh Kennedy and Shaw etc. Hawks are good at getting high end but are paying a lot in picks to get them, their premiership era was based on drafting not trades despite a couple of good ones.

No club has won a premiership yet based on substantial amounts of imported talent. Collingwood would be the exception if they win this year.

Collingwood funny enough are probably the best example, plenty of their high end is from other clubs. Treloar, Hoskins-Elliott, Adams, Wells, Varcoe, Maine, Greenwood, Aish, Dunn and Beams again.

You missed one of the critical points of my post and its thrust, Gringo. At the end of the second paragraph, I clearly state, "and the lower levels", meaning state and suburban leagues.

This usually means trading in and using later picks in the draft to maintain your list. Of course you have to be good at identifying needs and the talent to address them. We were poor at that in the Pelican/trout era.

The cats, hawks, swines and WCEs have all used a draft or two, got the right talent in, and then supplemented it with the dynamic shaping technique.

They have eschwed the traditional method of building and maintaining lists via early picks in the draft. Trade picks for what you need. Find the hidden gems at other clubs and leagues.

Dalhaus, Stanley, Rata, Stewart, Kelly, Danger, Gablett brought back, Bicavs etc. Please explain this to P66 as I think he missed it as well. He could be arguing in his spare time, though.

 

[stfan]

I'm not sure you can say the draft is dead,

I don't think that it is dead, just that drafting kids only is dead.

To become better you need to do a mix. Doing a mix gives you a vastly broader range of players to find what you need.

Crudely speaking in the draft your pick comes up every 18 players, and so the odds of the best available player at that pick also being best fit for StKilda (or indeed any team) is low.


Takes say GWS at present, chock full of talent but heading into 2020 what they most need is a good ruckman. Would they get that in the draft? Odds would be low. Can they trade for it, odds are much more higher.

Now the worse you list the more that "best available" will be helpful. With the saints this given that we do not have the first two picks Hill to me is a much more valuable acquisition that anyone we are likely to be able t draft with say pick 5 or 12.

 

[Young 27]

You missed one of the critical points of my post and its thrust, Gringo. At the end of the second paragraph, I clearly state, "and the lower levels", meaning state and suburban leagues.

This usually means trading in and using later picks in the draft to maintain your list. Of course you have to be good at identifying needs and the talent to address them. We were poor at that in the Pelican/trout era.

The cats, hawks, swines and WCEs have all used a draft or two, got the right talent in, and then supplemented it with the dynamic shaping technique.

They have eschwed the traditional method of building and maintaining lists via early picks in the draft. Trade picks for what you need. Find the hidden gems at other clubs and leagues.

Dalhaus, Stanley, Rata, Stewart, Kelly, Danger, Gablett brought back, Bicavs etc. Please explain this to P66 as I think he missed it as well. He could be arguing in his spare time, though.

My view is that Geelong lucked out with Danger being a home town boy and without him would now be a middle of the pack team...

 

[SaintsSeptember]

My view is that Geelong lucked out with Danger being a home town boy and without him would now be a middle of the pack team...

yeah and Jack Steven wants to be within commuting distance of Lorne...cos Cats are great list managers....derp.

 

[Mat Mann]

The conventional wisdom amongst the pros differs from yours, MM, but only time will tell. I think all of Hawthorn, Geelong, the swines and WCE would beg to differ, having won 11 of the past 14 flags between them. In light of that evidence, I'm curious to know what your definition of success is, or what facts and evidence you are relying on to support your argument.

The swines dived this year, so what are they doing? Going after Joe Daniher, not kids. The sustained success of those clubs has me taking their sides on this. How have Melbourne, Carlton, GCS and even ourselves gone by relying on the draft? Flags between us in the same period? Nada, nil, zip, nix, zero.

The sustained success of those clubs, in the absence of early draft picks shows rebuilding through the draft is over rated. It is conventional and conservative thinking that has anchored its adherents to the foot of the ladder.

You have to get your picks right, especially first rounders, but it seems ever so more important to rely on exposed form at the highest level possible and to get your development programs right.

Who would you rather have, Tom Lynch or pick 5? Steve Coniglio or Noah Anderson? Even Ben King or pick 6? I know which way I'd be going if I was reducing my risk. My hillbillie mate hopes other clubs keep investing in the draft, while the pussies keep targeting proven players.

Four flags and only one finals series missed in the past 13 years would suggest they're doing something right. In that time they've used only one top ten pick at the draft. Joel Selwood. The prosecution rests.

You know the biggest difference between those clubs and ours, image, money, media.
Sydney got Buddy because he wanted out of Melbourne, Didn't go to GWS who offered more money, went to Sydney because they offered a reasonable level of success. As was said Geelong and Hawks built their initial sides through the draft, Hawks had PP's and Geelong had FS's. ( just saying they had a leg up, not that their success was due solely to these)
Hawks attract players because Clarko and 4 flags,they have been there or there abouts, losing their 3 last finals.
Geelong attract because they have maintained a level of success. the have a rough future imo though.
We've seen players bypass lower clubs and more money for the lure of bigger games and finals. Sheil, Lynch etc..
How did Brisbane lure Neal..... haven't played finals in eons, didn't look like playing them soon either. they Drafted a promising group of players that hinted at massive upside. something we haven't, Carlton and Melbourne both the same

the competition is so corrupted now days its almost impossible to compete, Sheil went to Ess for the things outside of football, same reason McGovern stayed at WC.
Compromised drafts is the next frontier, the reason StKilda has few options is because we cant fund our academies to the same level as the bigger clubs, why, because we don't have stand alone games, our fixture in compromised to cater for the bigger clubs to make even more money via memberships, sponsorship, and all the other benefits of being an AFL darling big club. Essendon after coming last had more Thursday/Friday/Saturday night games the following year than we've had in almost a decade. why would a player looking for a trade WANT to come to StKilda when for a little less money, go to a "bigger" club and enjoy the benefits outside of and post football that they can offer because they get an artificial leg up over 1/2 the competition.

I think the club is trying very had to trade for players, but there are external forces that appear to be working very very hard against delivering a fair and even competition. remember when we had that absolute bundle of cash for Josh Kelly and then the AFL approved to 20% salary cap increase that enabled not only GWS to keep him but now every other club enough cash to get close enough to other targets that our extra didn't matter anyway.
Our rebiulkd has taken to long, our admin have been scared of making waves in the past, the football dept was secondary to other matters until recently, so surely its no great surprise that trading has been off, but in saying that, we have had decent success with lower profile trades, Brown, Membrey, Steele, Carlisle, Roberton, etc. not as high profile as some others, but these guys are certainly not the reason why we are averaging 14th position over the last 4 years.

Geelong hasnt had to trade for any high end talent yet, promising kids they have drafted but that batch of over 28's is the reason why Geelong is still competitive. they will loses a few this year, more next year and it goes on, I cant possibly see how they can trade for enough quality talent to stay competitive.

I have to agree with the OP and his Hillbillie mate. I have had the same opinion for a while about we should be looking at trading out our top pick for a established young gun in the age of 22-24 bracket almost every year. Whilst using the second round onwards to unearth solid players while adding established guns by trading.

As i said above, it's all well and good to plan and try, but we simply aren't in a position to attract good players, they simply don't want to come to us

I remember J Dunstall saying that at Hawthorn, it was all about getting the best available talent, no matter what kind of player they were, over particular players for particular roles. Clearly the development of younger players shows the strength and smarts of a club over the also-rans.

GT has said the same thing numerous time as well, get the best, you can turn mids into forwards and backs, but * its hard to turn a forward/back into a mid, and we've drafted a lot of forwards and backs during this rebuild.

didn't help that the AFL scrapped the limit on third party deals per club. that was canned as part of the last CBA.

so what would have happened previously is any third party deal outside of footy, would have to be included in another cap. so a club like Geelong with Cotton On only had so much bandwidth they could use from them.

the AFLPA pushed back and wanted an unlimited spend, so as long as the player could demonstrate the revenue was not footy related and had nothing to do with their club, it would not contribute to any cap. if it did, it was part of the normal salary cap or marketing allowance.

what that has meant is situations like dylan shiel where you can manipulate circumstance to get part of your salary paid outside the cap.

now there's rumour someone like McGovern was able to stay by getting a third party to buy into his "construction business". a third party with no connection to the club. how the AFL can prove it is, would be very hard. you're essentially landing your self in an ATO type role without any right to access bank accounts etc. to forensically examine if the money should be in the cap or not. so my opinion is that the salary cap is now dead. clubs will pay what ever they feel they want to pay their players. how many that are awake to this is another question. how much a club can pay will be dictated by their influence. how many wealthy supporters they have that are in a position to take players on.

the introduction of zones, the removal of the cap and the AFL's need to expand will make it hard for our club to survive long term if the TV rights and sponsorship $$$ retract.

there's other things occurring in the player pathway over here that i'm not prepared to put into writing. my feel is talent is now being hidden to ensure it stays in the state.

whilst off-field equalisation has improved somewhat, i feel the onfield equalisation measures have gone backwards in a big big way.

backwards in a massive way, its an unmitigated disaster waiting to happen, the gaps between the haves and have-nots has never been so great and it's only getting worse.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

If we go back to 2009, we should have been drafting by whatever means we could.

We burnt our first pick on Lovett in what we were told was a crappy draft year.
All of the focus was on the current playing group.

Why did that preclude us finding replacements for the future players?
Things we could have done if we were more competent at the time...

Read the Ball situation better and gotten at least pick 30 for him.
Drafted players the Calibre of Max Gawn, Sam Reid, Allen Christensen, Nathan Vardy, Ben Stratten, Sam Jacobs.

Used players from state leagues...yes like Geelong did. Podsiadly was a great pick up for them.
Orren Stephenson ( our rucks were thin on the ground ).
Barlow could have won us a premiership.

But nah... its a crap draft , lets get that Winmar guy cos it'll make the fans feel good cos of his name.

We did get Tommy Walsh who later gave us a draft pick.

----------------

Later our strategy was better , we downgraded our draft pick so we could get Milera and Saad.
We downgraded another to get Lee from the state league.
We tried state level players such as Dunell, Shenton, Templeton.

Ultimately the players we chose weren't up to it.

I don't see that our strategy was wrong, it was just poorly executed.

Talent identification is everything.

 

[gringo2011]

If we go back to 2009, we should have been drafting by whatever means we could.

We burnt our first pick on Lovett in what we were told was a crappy draft year.
All of the focus was on the current playing group.

Why did that preclude us finding replacements for the future players?
Things we could have done if we were more competent at the time...

Read the Ball situation better and gotten at least pick 30 for him.
Drafted players the Calibre of Max Gawn, Sam Reid, Allen Christensen, Nathan Vardy, Ben Stratten, Sam Jacobs.

Used players from state leagues...yes like Geelong did. Podsiadly was a great pick up for them.
Orren Stephenson ( our rucks were thin on the ground ).
Barlow could have won us a premiership.

But nah... its a crap draft , lets get that Winmar guy cos it'll make the fans feel good cos of his name.

We did get Tommy Walsh who later gave us a draft pick.

----------------

Later our strategy was better , we downgraded our draft pick so we could get Milera and Saad.
We downgraded another to get Lee from the state league.
We tried state level players such as Dunell, Shenton, Templeton.

Ultimately the players we chose weren't up to it.

I don't see that our strategy was wrong, it was just poorly executed.

Talent identification is everything.

I looked over what we used at the draft in that period and we did very little drafting choosing players like Polo, Pattison, Ray, Schnides, Dempster the slow guy from Geelong, Gardy and King etc. Lots of late picks and poor use of the draft as well.