Eagles 2020 season: Finals

Can we win the premiership?

  • Yes

    Votes: 8 72.7%
  • No

    Votes: 2 18.2%
  • Maybe

    Votes: 1 9.1%
  • Jack Watts

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    11

Remove this Banner Ad

Karim Abdul Yeo

All Australian
Jul 30, 2013
994
1,362
AFL Club
West Coast
Because if we finish fourth we could well have the opportunity to derail ports season yet again. Oh the melts.
I really hope that is the case. I am just trying to explain that 5th is not the end of the world as some suggest. Of course I'd take double chance to allow for off day, but I really think winning the flag this year can be done from 5th specially with cavalry arriving.
 

Doashuey

Club Legend
Sep 13, 2017
2,304
4,575
AFL Club
West Coast
Mate of course I would take 4th over 5th, that is not the argument here. All I am saying is if we end up 5th its not end of the world specially since we get home final and almost always 4th get to lose first week.
That's not really how I read this..
Any other position does not provide us with any specific advantage.Double chance (3rd or 4th)will at most get us to prelim away which is nothing different in playing 5th getting to PM. In both scenarios we play 2 games to get there. 5th gets there with EF + SF, 4th gets there with losing QF + SF. same same mate. It will be a massive upset if we finish 4th and beat 1st team away in their turf. so saying that, knowing 4th almost always loses first week, how on ******* earth is 4th better than 5th in this case?? :)
I think with some players like Shuey , Redden and Yeo back that we would be at minimum 50:50 vs Port at AO in week 1. In fact I would take odds on for them.

I agree that this year there is definite advantages to us finishing 5th over 4th- the longer stretch at home and the chance to play some blokes who have been out for stints against a (likely) weaker opponent. But to say there is NO difference between 4th and 5th and that it would be a massive upset if we won a qualifying final against a team that we have a 5-0 record against at AO is simply wrong.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Karim Abdul Yeo

All Australian
Jul 30, 2013
994
1,362
AFL Club
West Coast
That's not really how I read this..

I think with some players like Shuey , Redden and Yeo back that we would be at minimum 50:50 vs Port at AO in week 1. In fact I would take odds on for them.

I agree that this year there is definite advantages to us finishing 5th over 4th- the longer stretch at home and the chance to play some blokes who have been out for stints against a (likely) weaker opponent. But to say there is NO difference between 4th and 5th and that it would be a massive upset if we won a qualifying final against a team that we have a 5-0 record against at AO is simply wrong.
Fair enough. I disagree. All good. Hope for both tigers and Cats to lose and we end up 3rd :)
 

MIKE85

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 9, 2012
6,780
8,100
PERTH
AFL Club
West Coast
Said it a fair few times, will say again. We aren’t winning the flag from 5th. Never have, and this year won’t be any different. Even with QLD finals hub etc, won’t matter. Our only chance is winning a QF and getting straight into the PF. We’d be lucky to make it past the SF if we finish 5th. Just like every time in our history that we’ve finished 5th. Yes we won’t have to play Richmond or Cats at the G, but they’ve both got superior QLD form compared to us, and would be way more of a “home” game for them compared to us. We don’t flags from outside the top 2 (since the current system has been in play) we don’t even make GFs outside of the top 2, so to think we’ll just somehow pull it out of our arse this year and win it from 5th is delusional
 

Karim Abdul Yeo

All Australian
Jul 30, 2013
994
1,362
AFL Club
West Coast
Said it a fair few times, will say again. We aren’t winning the flag from 5th. Never have, and this year won’t be any different. Even with QLD finals hub etc, won’t matter. Our only chance is winning a QF and getting straight into the PF. We’d be lucky to make it past the SF if we finish 5th. Just like every time in our history that we’ve finished 5th. Yes we won’t have to play Richmond or Cats at the G, but they’ve both got superior QLD form compared to us, and would be way more of a “home” game for them compared to us. We don’t flags from outside the top 2 (since the current system has been in play) we don’t even make GFs outside of the top 2, so to think we’ll just somehow pull it out of our arse this year and win it from 5th is delusional
I agree with above. Specially not winning a flag outside top 2. If finishing top 2 is the only way for us to make it to GF then VIC media must be correct by calling us flat track bullies I guess. One minor error in your post. In 2006 we lost our QF in Perth to swans and still ended up winning the whole thing. So it can happen. In all honestly even if we finished top 2, it will take a monster performance to get over Richmond. This is Richmond's Flag to lose.
 

JohnW

Club Legend
Oct 6, 2005
1,396
1,241
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Having the opportunity of playing one less game towards GF is very different to execution. When it comes to execution, more often than not 4th team end up losing their first game and with it that opportunity. If I had a wish-list I would never compare 5th to 4th, I would compare 5th to 1st or 2nd due to home court advantage which is when opportunity becomes more realistic since we play better at home.For that reason alone, 5th and 4th to me are very similar unless we end up 4th and beat 1st team which is great.
Mate of course I would take 4th over 5th, that is not the argument here. All I am saying is if we end up 5th its not end of the world specially since we get home final and almost always 4th get to lose first week.
I agree. Of course you would take 4th over 5th.
 

StateOE

Senior List
Mar 16, 2017
296
425
AFL Club
West Coast
Do you think that perhaps players like shuey, redden, yeo (if he gets up) may benefit from an ‘easier’ final first up and may benefit from more matches rather than going in to a PF off one game in 6-7 weeks?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Sure it may be easier but it doesnt guarantee you a win in either scenario. Bulldogs knocked us out on our home turf in the 1st final remember?

At least 4th if you lose you have another go.
 

ThePuma #9

Club Legend
Sep 21, 2010
1,958
2,294
Melbourne
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Chicago Bulls, FC Barcelona
Yes, fourth would have been better but I’m content we’re finishing fifth and if ever there was a year that not finishing top 4 wasn’t the be all and end all to winning the whole thing this would be that year.

Our very best is still better than anyone else’s, can we turn it on for more than 10-20 minutes against the top sides?

Well we will have to wait and see but with key personnel coming back and a few weeks at home for the boys to see their families I wouldn’t go writing us off just yet.

Call me a fool if you like but after last weeks win I believe anything is possible with this team and they will have nothing but my support and belief for the rest of the year.

They clearly believe they’re up to the task and so shall I.
 

JohnW

Club Legend
Oct 6, 2005
1,396
1,241
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Do the math

Probability of grand final win from 4th

Pr1 * Pr3 * Pr4

Pr1L * Pr2 * Pr3 * Pr4

Assume there is a 20% chance of a win when finishing 4th, and that we keep those odds throughout the final. But it can be adjusted for your own opinion, or kareem abduls opinion for this threads sake

20% * 20% * 20% = 0.80% chance of a grand final win based on winning first final and finish 4th

80% * 20% * 20% * 20% = 0.64% chance of a grand final win based on winning first final and a finish of 4th.

Assuming odds of winning a 1st final if we finish 5th increases to 90%?

90% * 20% * 20% * 20% = 0.144% chance of winning a grand final from 5th.

Any one know if thats correct?

Lets update it for Kareem's probabilities.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

omarlittle1

Club Legend
Aug 1, 2010
2,153
1,475
Sydney
AFL Club
West Coast
Happy with these changes. They make perfect sense.

Fingers crossed on Shuey, Gov and Yeo. Yeo in particular seems unlikely to return at all this year but here's hoping the others do.
 

Jiggyman

Club Legend
Apr 1, 2010
2,982
3,431
AFL Club
West Coast
Yeo in particular seems unlikely to return at all this year but here's hoping the others do.
To be any chance for a late final, he has to recover rapidly in the next couple of weeks and then rebuild on a tailored program.

Seems unlikely with the way Simpson discussed it today.
 

Astro7

Official Oranges Man
Aug 6, 2017
2,497
2,988
AFL Club
West Coast
Week 2 is the furthest will get this season. Pretty worried about posting on here might get banned.

On CPH1921 using BigFooty.com mobile app
Think you'd have to do a lot worse than that to get banned?
I've given up on speculating and taken a casual approach of 'what will be, will be?'
(which is a forward projection and a slight improvement on 'it is what it is'...)

But I must say, for all our injuries and experience out, this weeks team still looks pretty solid!
Something maybe not factored in with the return of key players and finals, are injuries incurred during those finals games - not something you'd wish to dwell on, but it is a reality...another reason why top 4 and a double chance is invaluable...who knows, we're due for a bit of luck, maybe something from a Tiger/Cat game?
If Freo smashed the Kangas, are we expected to do the same - last game motivation from both sides?
 
Last edited:

ConcreteWaters

Club Legend
Aug 12, 2014
1,403
2,635
Edinburgh
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Swan Districts, Prescot Cables
we don’t even make GFs outside of the top 2, so to think we’ll just somehow pull it out of our arse this year and win it from 5th is delusional
I know 28 years ago isn't totally relevant to today, and the second McIntyre System is pretty ridiculous (Footscray finished second, beaten by top team Geelong goes into elimination, while our elimination final led to a double chance semi) but we won our first flag from 4th.

While we're still in it, the dream is alive!
 

KERRPOW

Premiership Player
Jul 28, 2008
3,424
3,216
in a town near you
AFL Club
West Coast
I know 28 years ago isn't totally relevant to today, and the second McIntyre System is pretty ridiculous (Footscray finished second, beaten by top team Geelong goes into elimination, while our elimination final led to a double chance semi) but we won our first flag from 4th.

While we're still in it, the dream is alive!
Thats a really bizzare finals system
 

Ishmael_

And so it goes....
Apr 30, 2013
2,164
5,116
Stockholm
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
South Fremantle
Generally I think it's too hard for us to win outside of the top 2 because of the travel factor. This year I agree things are different and if we were consistently dominant this year and got all our soldiers back for finals I think we could win it from the top four, maybe even the top five.

But honestly I don't think we've really clicked this year and played that top flight football. We don't have the elite line-breaking kicks we used to have and I don't think the Qld conditions suit that game plan anyway.

If that St Kilda win proved we are galvanised and have the game to match it in Qld, that's one thing, but the other problem we have is availability. I don't think we can win the flag without Yeo. I think he's our best player and our barometer, even more so than Nic Nat. Throw in Gov, the touch and go injury/fitness concerns hanging over another handful of players and we're up against it.

I also think travelling home and then back might stuff us up a bit too.

But hey, if we manage to win the flag this year, it will be without a doubt our greatest achievement as a football club. So let's do that.🤞
 

Rowan18

Club Legend
Feb 20, 2018
2,465
4,419
AFL Club
West Coast
I know 28 years ago isn't totally relevant to today, and the second McIntyre System is pretty ridiculous (Footscray finished second, beaten by top team Geelong goes into elimination, while our elimination final led to a double chance semi) but we won our first flag from 4th.

While we're still in it, the dream is alive!
That system was so obviously flawed. The team with the easiest final wk1 (4th v 5th) gets the double chance in week 2, while the loser of the hardest final in wk1 (1v2) goes to an elimination in wk2. That mcintyre guy wasn't very good at finals.

The wikipedia article on the system also claims that under the current system, both 4th and 5th have a 12.5% chance to win GF. Therefore, the answer to this thread is that there is no difference between the finishing positions
 

Top Bottom