Karim Abdul Yeo
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I really hope that is the case. I am just trying to explain that 5th is not the end of the world as some suggest. Of course I'd take double chance to allow for off day, but I really think winning the flag this year can be done from 5th specially with cavalry arriving.
That's not really how I read this..
I think with some players like Shuey , Redden and Yeo back that we would be at minimum 50:50 vs Port at AO in week 1. In fact I would take odds on for them.Any other position does not provide us with any specific advantage.Double chance (3rd or 4th)will at most get us to prelim away which is nothing different in playing 5th getting to PM. In both scenarios we play 2 games to get there. 5th gets there with EF + SF, 4th gets there with losing QF + SF. same same mate. It will be a massive upset if we finish 4th and beat 1st team away in their turf. so saying that, knowing 4th almost always loses first week, how on ******* earth is 4th better than 5th in this case??
I agree that this year there is definite advantages to us finishing 5th over 4th- the longer stretch at home and the chance to play some blokes who have been out for stints against a (likely) weaker opponent. But to say there is NO difference between 4th and 5th and that it would be a massive upset if we won a qualifying final against a team that we have a 5-0 record against at AO is simply wrong.
Karim Abdul Yeo
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Fair enough. I disagree. All good. Hope for both tigers and Cats to lose and we end up 3rd
Said it a fair few times, will say again. We aren’t winning the flag from 5th. Never have, and this year won’t be any different. Even with QLD finals hub etc, won’t matter. Our only chance is winning a QF and getting straight into the PF. We’d be lucky to make it past the SF if we finish 5th. Just like every time in our history that we’ve finished 5th. Yes we won’t have to play Richmond or Cats at the G, but they’ve both got superior QLD form compared to us, and would be way more of a “home” game for them compared to us. We don’t flags from outside the top 2 (since the current system has been in play) we don’t even make GFs outside of the top 2, so to think we’ll just somehow pull it out of our arse this year and win it from 5th is delusional
Karim Abdul Yeo
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I agree with above. Specially not winning a flag outside top 2. If finishing top 2 is the only way for us to make it to GF then VIC media must be correct by calling us flat track bullies I guess. One minor error in your post. In 2006 we lost our QF in Perth to swans and still ended up winning the whole thing. So it can happen. In all honestly even if we finished top 2, it will take a monster performance to get over Richmond. This is Richmond's Flag to lose.
We finished top in 06. Yes we lost the QF and got to the GF the long way, but still finished top 2. One of our best wins ever was that PF at AAMI stadium
StateOE
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Last time I check 20% is greater than 0%?
Yeah, that's pretty much the definition of 'opportunity'. But it's still just an average; I'd give us a higher chance of winning a QF against Port or Brisbane than 20%.
StateOE
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Sure it may be easier but it doesnt guarantee you a win in either scenario. Bulldogs knocked us out on our home turf in the 1st final remember?
At least 4th if you lose you have another go.
Yes, fourth would have been better but I’m content we’re finishing fifth and if ever there was a year that not finishing top 4 wasn’t the be all and end all to winning the whole thing this would be that year.
Our very best is still better than anyone else’s, can we turn it on for more than 10-20 minutes against the top sides?
Well we will have to wait and see but with key personnel coming back and a few weeks at home for the boys to see their families I wouldn’t go writing us off just yet.
Call me a fool if you like but after last weeks win I believe anything is possible with this team and they will have nothing but my support and belief for the rest of the year.
They clearly believe they’re up to the task and so shall I.
Our very best is still better than anyone else’s, can we turn it on for more than 10-20 minutes against the top sides?
Well we will have to wait and see but with key personnel coming back and a few weeks at home for the boys to see their families I wouldn’t go writing us off just yet.
Call me a fool if you like but after last weeks win I believe anything is possible with this team and they will have nothing but my support and belief for the rest of the year.
They clearly believe they’re up to the task and so shall I.
Do the math
Probability of grand final win from 4th
Pr1 * Pr3 * Pr4
Pr1L * Pr2 * Pr3 * Pr4
Assume there is a 20% chance of a win when finishing 4th, and that we keep those odds throughout the final. But it can be adjusted for your own opinion, or kareem abduls opinion for this threads sake
20% * 20% * 20% = 0.80% chance of a grand final win based on winning first final and finish 4th
80% * 20% * 20% * 20% = 0.64% chance of a grand final win based on winning first final and a finish of 4th.
Assuming odds of winning a 1st final if we finish 5th increases to 90%?
90% * 20% * 20% * 20% = 0.144% chance of winning a grand final from 5th.
Any one know if thats correct?
Lets update it for Kareem's probabilities.
Probability of grand final win from 4th
Pr1 * Pr3 * Pr4
Pr1L * Pr2 * Pr3 * Pr4
Assume there is a 20% chance of a win when finishing 4th, and that we keep those odds throughout the final. But it can be adjusted for your own opinion, or kareem abduls opinion for this threads sake
20% * 20% * 20% = 0.80% chance of a grand final win based on winning first final and finish 4th
80% * 20% * 20% * 20% = 0.64% chance of a grand final win based on winning first final and a finish of 4th.
Assuming odds of winning a 1st final if we finish 5th increases to 90%?
90% * 20% * 20% * 20% = 0.144% chance of winning a grand final from 5th.
Any one know if thats correct?
Lets update it for Kareem's probabilities.
omarlittle1
Club Legend
Happy with these changes. They make perfect sense.
Fingers crossed on Shuey, Gov and Yeo. Yeo in particular seems unlikely to return at all this year but here's hoping the others do.
Fingers crossed on Shuey, Gov and Yeo. Yeo in particular seems unlikely to return at all this year but here's hoping the others do.
To be any chance for a late final, he has to recover rapidly in the next couple of weeks and then rebuild on a tailored program.
Seems unlikely with the way Simpson discussed it today.
I forsee a similiar finals exit to last season unfortunately.
insidious
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Week 2 is the furthest will get this season. Pretty worried about posting on here might get banned.
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Which of our players is going to get done for urine substitution this time?
Think you'd have to do a lot worse than that to get banned?
I've given up on speculating and taken a casual approach of 'what will be, will be?'
(which is a forward projection and a slight improvement on 'it is what it is'...)
But I must say, for all our injuries and experience out, this weeks team still looks pretty solid!
Something maybe not factored in with the return of key players and finals, are injuries incurred during those finals games - not something you'd wish to dwell on, but it is a reality...another reason why top 4 and a double chance is invaluable...who knows, we're due for a bit of luck, maybe something from a Tiger/Cat game?
If Freo smashed the Kangas, are we expected to do the same - last game motivation from both sides?
Last edited:
I know 28 years ago isn't totally relevant to today, and the second McIntyre System is pretty ridiculous (Footscray finished second, beaten by top team Geelong goes into elimination, while our elimination final led to a double chance semi) but we won our first flag from 4th.
1992 AFL season - Wikipedia
While we're still in it, the dream is alive!
Thats a really bizzare finals systemI know 28 years ago isn't totally relevant to today, and the second McIntyre System is pretty ridiculous (Footscray finished second, beaten by top team Geelong goes into elimination, while our elimination final led to a double chance semi) but we won our first flag from 4th.
1992 AFL season - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
While we're still in it, the dream is alive!
Generally I think it's too hard for us to win outside of the top 2 because of the travel factor. This year I agree things are different and if we were consistently dominant this year and got all our soldiers back for finals I think we could win it from the top four, maybe even the top five.
But honestly I don't think we've really clicked this year and played that top flight football. We don't have the elite line-breaking kicks we used to have and I don't think the Qld conditions suit that game plan anyway.
If that St Kilda win proved we are galvanised and have the game to match it in Qld, that's one thing, but the other problem we have is availability. I don't think we can win the flag without Yeo. I think he's our best player and our barometer, even more so than Nic Nat. Throw in Gov, the touch and go injury/fitness concerns hanging over another handful of players and we're up against it.
I also think travelling home and then back might stuff us up a bit too.
But hey, if we manage to win the flag this year, it will be without a doubt our greatest achievement as a football club. So let's do that.
But honestly I don't think we've really clicked this year and played that top flight football. We don't have the elite line-breaking kicks we used to have and I don't think the Qld conditions suit that game plan anyway.
If that St Kilda win proved we are galvanised and have the game to match it in Qld, that's one thing, but the other problem we have is availability. I don't think we can win the flag without Yeo. I think he's our best player and our barometer, even more so than Nic Nat. Throw in Gov, the touch and go injury/fitness concerns hanging over another handful of players and we're up against it.
I also think travelling home and then back might stuff us up a bit too.
But hey, if we manage to win the flag this year, it will be without a doubt our greatest achievement as a football club. So let's do that.
That system was so obviously flawed. The team with the easiest final wk1 (4th v 5th) gets the double chance in week 2, while the loser of the hardest final in wk1 (1v2) goes to an elimination in wk2. That mcintyre guy wasn't very good at finals.I know 28 years ago isn't totally relevant to today, and the second McIntyre System is pretty ridiculous (Footscray finished second, beaten by top team Geelong goes into elimination, while our elimination final led to a double chance semi) but we won our first flag from 4th.
1992 AFL season - Wikipedia
While we're still in it, the dream is alive!
The wikipedia article on the system also claims that under the current system, both 4th and 5th have a 12.5% chance to win GF. Therefore, the answer to this thread is that there is no difference between the finishing positions
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We have won stretches og random games in a row before.
Just need to win the next 3, 4 or 5 and she's apples
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