Lets think about thisWould you rather go into a do or die final with underdone players, or one with a 2nd chance for the loser?
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Lets think about thisWould you rather go into a do or die final with underdone players, or one with a 2nd chance for the loser?
Because if we finish fourth we could well have the opportunity to derail ports season yet again. Oh the melts.
That's not really how I read this..Mate of course I would take 4th over 5th, that is not the argument here. All I am saying is if we end up 5th its not end of the world specially since we get home final and almost always 4th get to lose first week.
I think with some players like Shuey , Redden and Yeo back that we would be at minimum 50:50 vs Port at AO in week 1. In fact I would take odds on for them.Any other position does not provide us with any specific advantage.Double chance (3rd or 4th)will at most get us to prelim away which is nothing different in playing 5th getting to PM. In both scenarios we play 2 games to get there. 5th gets there with EF + SF, 4th gets there with losing QF + SF. same same mate. It will be a massive upset if we finish 4th and beat 1st team away in their turf. so saying that, knowing 4th almost always loses first week, how on ******* earth is 4th better than 5th in this case??
That's not really how I read this..
I think with some players like Shuey , Redden and Yeo back that we would be at minimum 50:50 vs Port at AO in week 1. In fact I would take odds on for them.
I agree that this year there is definite advantages to us finishing 5th over 4th- the longer stretch at home and the chance to play some blokes who have been out for stints against a (likely) weaker opponent. But to say there is NO difference between 4th and 5th and that it would be a massive upset if we won a qualifying final against a team that we have a 5-0 record against at AO is simply wrong.
Said it a fair few times, will say again. We aren’t winning the flag from 5th. Never have, and this year won’t be any different. Even with QLD finals hub etc, won’t matter. Our only chance is winning a QF and getting straight into the PF. We’d be lucky to make it past the SF if we finish 5th. Just like every time in our history that we’ve finished 5th. Yes we won’t have to play Richmond or Cats at the G, but they’ve both got superior QLD form compared to us, and would be way more of a “home” game for them compared to us. We don’t flags from outside the top 2 (since the current system has been in play) we don’t even make GFs outside of the top 2, so to think we’ll just somehow pull it out of our arse this year and win it from 5th is delusional
Having the opportunity of playing one less game towards GF is very different to execution. When it comes to execution, more often than not 4th team end up losing their first game and with it that opportunity. If I had a wish-list I would never compare 5th to 4th, I would compare 5th to 1st or 2nd due to home court advantage which is when opportunity becomes more realistic since we play better at home.For that reason alone, 5th and 4th to me are very similar unless we end up 4th and beat 1st team which is great.
Mate of course I would take 4th over 5th, that is not the argument here. All I am saying is if we end up 5th its not end of the world specially since we get home final and almost always 4th get to lose first week.
the stats showing 4th team losing 80% of the time in first week of finals does not support your argument regarding "opportunity". If that number was more like 40-50 percent, then I'd understand, since it is only 20% then your statement falls short IMO.
Yeah, that's pretty much the definition of 'opportunity'. But it's still just an average; I'd give us a higher chance of winning a QF against Port or Brisbane than 20%.Last time I check 20% is greater than 0%?
Do you think that perhaps players like shuey, redden, yeo (if he gets up) may benefit from an ‘easier’ final first up and may benefit from more matches rather than going in to a PF off one game in 6-7 weeks?
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To be any chance for a late final, he has to recover rapidly in the next couple of weeks and then rebuild on a tailored program.Yeo in particular seems unlikely to return at all this year but here's hoping the others do.
I forsee a similiar finals exit to last season unfortunately.
Think you'd have to do a lot worse than that to get banned?Week 2 is the furthest will get this season. Pretty worried about posting on here might get banned.
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I know 28 years ago isn't totally relevant to today, and the second McIntyre System is pretty ridiculous (Footscray finished second, beaten by top team Geelong goes into elimination, while our elimination final led to a double chance semi) but we won our first flag from 4th.we don’t even make GFs outside of the top 2, so to think we’ll just somehow pull it out of our arse this year and win it from 5th is delusional
Thats a really bizzare finals systemI know 28 years ago isn't totally relevant to today, and the second McIntyre System is pretty ridiculous (Footscray finished second, beaten by top team Geelong goes into elimination, while our elimination final led to a double chance semi) but we won our first flag from 4th.
1992 AFL season - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
While we're still in it, the dream is alive!
That system was so obviously flawed. The team with the easiest final wk1 (4th v 5th) gets the double chance in week 2, while the loser of the hardest final in wk1 (1v2) goes to an elimination in wk2. That mcintyre guy wasn't very good at finals.I know 28 years ago isn't totally relevant to today, and the second McIntyre System is pretty ridiculous (Footscray finished second, beaten by top team Geelong goes into elimination, while our elimination final led to a double chance semi) but we won our first flag from 4th.
1992 AFL season - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
While we're still in it, the dream is alive!