Realistically, we're a middle of the road side like Richmond, Collingwood, Adelaide and Gold Coast who are all vying for that final spot. We are the worst against current top 8 sides: 0-9. Richmond is 2-6, the Crows 2-8, Gold Coast 3-6 and Collingwood 5-4. Of all the teams unlucky to make it, Collingwood have been hit hard with injuries and according to the 'logic' of this article (loose term), 'deserve' to play finals. But like any premiership jaunt, injuries play a part and the 'best' team doesn't always win, particularly if they can't get on the park. A fit Collingwood team would be around the 4th-6th mark.
We don't do too badly against other top 8 teams, losing by an average of 28 points, which isn't too different from our rivals for 8th.
Richmond have lost by an average of 30, Adelaide 29, Collingwood 40, Gold Coast 44.
We do quite well against out rivals for 8th spot (Rich, Coll, Adel, GC): 3 wins, 2 losses
Richmond are 1 win, 3 losses
Collingwood are 2 wins, 4 losses
Adelaide are 4 wins, 2 losses
GC are 2 wins, 2 losses
We've also made it count against the bad sides, where our rivals have sometimes lost games. We've been competitive against most top 8 sides, beaten the sides around us and smashed some sides below us....ie: middle of the road.
Surely the best way to get rid of the inequalities in the draw would be to merge some Melbourne clubs. From a competition equality standpoint, it's ludicrous to have suburban clubs next to each other (like Carlton, Collingwood and Richmond), whilst having two clubs representing whole states (WA, SA, Qld, NSW) in what is supposed to be a national competition.