Remove this Banner Ad

BigFooty Forum

There's a lot of talk and resentment on here regarding the Eagle's poor drafting. My gut feel has always been that it's slightly under par, but nowhere near as bad as many people make out. It's very easy to spot a gun player who was taken 10 players after a player we choose than turned out less than average. It's very easy to say, "why didn't we take Chad Warner!?".

Historically, the footy community thinks some stupid shit. Just ill thought out surface level stuff that is easy to digest and repeat. We're starting to learn that because the #1 pick is unlikely to end up the best player, it's a stupid reason not to take the best player. We now know that taking outside mids in the top 10 is a mugs game. We also know not to spend top 10 picks on KPDs, as you can get them in the 20s and 30s. We know that most successful list profiles are built on an elite midfield taken at the top of the draft, a strong KPF or two, and the rest of the team are role players. We know the vast majority of players will play well in good sides, but poorly in bad sides.

We know the rough percentages of draft success. The chances of finding that A+ player is way higher in the top 5 than anywhere else. But what about later in the draft? One thing that is really obvious, is that when you're using data sets of 10 or so drafts, you can see that the closer you move to the pointy end of the draft, the more likely you will find a better quality player. It's not perfectly linear, but fugg me if it doesn't look like a Christmas tree.

So if the top 12 is the Sunset Strip, laden with stars, then the rest of the draft is The Valley. An endless wasteland of shit with occasional gems. I could have split them up by rounds, but there's an obvious flaw in that, which is the huge gaps between the top 5, and picks in their teens. This is a much wider gap than a mid 20s pick and a mid 30s pick. So why did I choose 13? My gut says the number is somewhere between 13 and 15. I chose 13 because the Eagles have two fails in Brander and Venables and I wanted them included.

So about these numbers:

This is all drafts between 2009 - 2019, from pick 13 onwards.
I've graded players A+, A, B, C, and F. Some people may disagree with some rankings (it's hard to maintain a consistent base), but it's a case of swings and roundabouts.

The AFL average number of picks in this period is 43. All clubs hover around this except Suns (26) and GWS (29). I figure it is because these clubs had more picks in the top 12 than anyone else.

The AFL dud rate, which is a percentage of picks from #13 onward that end up being duds is 76%. So let's be clear here, you have a 1 in 4 chance of a player having a reasonable career after pick 12. All the clubs hover around this 76%. GWS and Hawks have a crazy good 55%, Sydney near as good with 56%, Fremantle good with 62%, and Gold Coast the worst with 88%. The stark difference between GWS and GCS can only be down to who sits in the seat. That campaigner at the Suns needs to go to Specsavers.

The average position of each clubs draft picks is similar. The AFL average number of picks inside 30, is 10. The outliers are Melbourne only 4, Hawthorn 7, and those greedy Lions had 17. There were only 7 A+ players out of a total of 776. Fremantle had two in Neale and Fyfe.

So how do the teams rank?

AFL Average
Avg. Picks42.83
A+7
A32
B89
C89
F559
Dud rate76%
Average Pos43.76
Avg. Inside #3010


Warren Buffet Level

Fremantle

Picks50
A+2Lachie NealeNathan Fyfe
A1Sean Darcy
B3Ed LangdonAlex PearceMatt Taberner
C13
F31
Dud rate62%
Average Pos52.90
Inside #3010


Sydney



Rene Rivkin Level

Hawthorn



Melbourne

Picks37
A+1Max Gawn
A1Jack Viney
B5Charlie SpargoBayley FritschAlex Neal-BullenHarrison PettyJeremy Howe
C6
F24
Dud rate65%
Average Pos49.59
Inside #304


Geelong



The Index

West Coast

Picks45
A+0
A3Oscar AllenJeremy McGovernJack Darling
B3Liam RyanWillie RioliTom Barrass
C4
F35
Dud rate78%
Average Pos47.76
Inside #3012


Adelaide

Picks41
A+0
A3Jake LeverRory LairdJack Gunston
B3Tom DoedeeBrodie SmithDaniel Talia
C2
F33
Dud rate80%
Average Pos51.51
Inside #3012


GWS



Western Bulldogs

Picks50
A+0
A2Josh DunkleyTom Liberatore (F/S)
B7Cody WeightmanEd RichardsTim EnglishBailey DaleCaleb DanielLachie HunterLiam Picken
C5
F35
Dud rate70%
Average Pos53.22
Inside #3013


Brisbane



Mum & Dad Level

Collingwood

Picks42
A+0
A3Josh DaicosBrodie GrundyJarrod Witts
B2Brayden MaynardIsaac Quaynor
C4
F33
Dud rate79%
Average Pos56.05
Inside #308


Essendon

Picks42
A+1Zach Merrett
A0
B4Mason RedmanKyle LangfordJayden LaverdeJordan Ridley
C5
F32
Dud rate76%
Average Pos51.00
Inside #3010


Port Adelaide



Richmond



Nick Leeson Level

Carlton

Picks44
A+1Patrick Cripps
A0
B2Tom De KoningZach Tuohy
C5
F36
Dud rate82%
Average Pos54.61
Inside #3011


Gold Coast

Picks26
A+1Touk Miller
A0
B1Charlie Ballard
C1
F23
Dud rate88%
Average Pos43.35
Inside #3011


North Melbourne

Picks47
A+0
A1Nick Larkey
B2Ben McKayBen Brown
C5
F39
Dud rate83%
Average Pos48.47
Inside #3011


St Rabble

Picks46
A+0
A0
B4Jade GreshamBlake AcresSebastian RossJamie Cripps
C5
F37
Dud rate80%
Average Pos52.22
Inside #3010

Remove this Banner Ad

🥰 Love BigFooty? Join now for free.

Back
Top