Hi all - this is my first post so please be gentle.
First the intro - I have been employed in AFL club land for a number of years and that ceased at the end of last season. Was in recruiting and talent id and emphasis was on observing players from U16 year through to Draft year - but mainly through APS/AGSV and TAC systems.
So now I am just an observer and these are just my opinions...
I believe the 2018 Draft crop - other than the first say 10 picks - will end up being a very disappointing group.
I base this on the fact that all great draft's have historically had a strong emphasis on the strength on the Vic Metro/Vic Country groups and i am putting it out there that the 2018 groups are very, very thin...
I base this on my initial observations from 2016 U16 Nationals - VM did not win a game and VC only beat VM in a very lack lustre game and lost other 2 games. This was early indicator of the weakness of this group from a Victorian standpoint. I also dont want to take away from strength of other states - as SA this year is as strong a group as i can remember - its just that i am making the point that all good draft crops rely on the largest pool of its players coming from Victoria and i believe this years Vics are very average. The AFL Academy intake at this year level also further backs up my point - the King brothers are covering the weakness in this group.
As mentioned earlier i have been a close observer of APS/AGSV over last decade and my concern with 2018 crop was further heightened during last years private school season. Sticking just with APS to make my point - 2017 was a really interesting year - with Haileybury with about best team in private school history (Brayshaw, Constable, Davies-Uniacke, Bonar, etc...and the Kings), Geelong Grammar had the fab four (Dow, Brander, O'Brien and Daniels), Caulfield were incredibly strong and Carey were brilliantly coached etc...but the thing i noted with great interest was the distinct lack of quality year 11's in a lot of the teams. To emphasize my concerns further i want to highlight 2 boys in particular that have recruiters very concerned about 2018 and very excited about 2019. In all my years of watching APS footy i have never seen year 10's come in and influence games as much as Matt Rowell (Carey) and Jack Mahony (St Kevins) did in 2017. History tells me that many year 10 boys play - but i have not seen young players do what these boys (and Noah Anderson from Carey) did consistently and that makes me think that they are simply a lot better than this years year 12 boys.
So that is my quick observations on last 2 years but what about this year - and round one of TAC i think further confirms my concerns. If you go through teams i simply cannot remember a Round 1 that had so many bottom age players. If you ignore the 19 year olds - which btw are becoming a joke as they were originally were meant to be either under developed bigs or injured players and now they have become just guys unlucky not to be drafted and coming back to assist teams to win games - the volume of bottom ages was very concerning from a 2018 draft perspective. Just look at Vic Metro TAC teams - bottom agers everywhere like never before in round one. I got told on weekend that initial VM squad for 2018 has 29 players - this includes 7 AFL Academy bottom agers and 3 19 year olds - so i ask the question is this really the year on the super draft ???
Now my disclaimer - the top end of 2018 draft is seriously elite - i am just questioning the depth...