Draft Watcher eDPS Draft Watch 2019

[Davo-27]

I don't have the stats in front of me, I am relying solely on a podcast for this information, but Serong supposedly went at 47% kicking efficiency during the U18 Champs. While Devon Robertson went at 52%.

thats not how DE% works, most players are around 50%-60% kicking and like 80-90% handball efficient (inside mids), so unless you show all the stats they can manipulate some stats to make players look worse in a really simple minded way imo, if you are winning contested ball a lot of times you are gaining meters and not so much spotting up a lead, thats a luxury the outside players have with time and space, winning the ball in tight is a skill in itself, with mostly handballs resulting, sometimes you have to kick because you dont have a team mate available to run past, so your kick is just to gain meterage and hopefully gain momentum, also if your team mate drops a regulation mark then it counts against your DE% as well so you can kick it to a leading forw, he drops it, it counts against you, that scenario was common in this years champs because of a lack of good marking forws ect...

for example last season Sam Walsh went at 52% kicking efficiency in his 12 games at TAC Cup level...... and went at 62% DE% in the TAC Cup, he isnt that bad of a player if you ask me, obviously you would love players to have over 70% DE%, but that also comes with having better team mates imo, like in an AFL environment, he is going at a decent 65.7% at Carlton, anything above 65% is average, 70% is good and 75%+ is really good kicking anyone above 80% is rare/elite and you will find most of those players are the types to get space to use the footy, not the guys who are tackling, digging, extracting the footy, which Serong and Robertson are...

 

[briztoon]

thats not how DE% works, most players are around 50%-60% kicking and like 80-90% handball efficient (inside mids), so unless you show all the stats they can manipulate some stats to make players look worse in a really simple minded way imo, if you are winning contested ball a lot of times you are gaining meters and not so much spotting up a lead, thats a luxury the outside players have with time and space, winning the ball in tight is a skill in itself, with mostly handballs resulting, sometimes you have to kick because you dont have a team mate available to run past, so your kick is just to gain meterage and hopefully gain momentum, also if your team mate drops a regulation mark then it counts against your DE% as well so you can kick it to a leading forw, he drops it, it counts against you, that scenario was common in this years champs because of a lack of good marking forws ect...

for example last season Sam Walsh went at 52% kicking efficiency in his 12 games at TAC Cup level...... and went at 62% DE% in the TAC Cup, he isnt that bad of a player if you ask me, obviously you would love players to have over 70% DE%, but that also comes with having better team mates imo, like in an AFL environment, he is going at a decent 65.7% at Carlton, anything above 65% is average, 70% is good and 75%+ is really good kicking anyone above 80% is rare/elite and you will find most of those players are the types to get space to use the footy, not the guys who are tackling, digging, extracting the footy, which Serong and Robertson are...

The discussion I was referring to was highlighting that people have concerns over Robertson’s kick but not Serong’s. Yet by the stats, Serong was worse.

The main point I was trying to get across, is I’m not sure if Serong is a top 10 talent. But the counterpoint is, that in a weaker draft, someone has to round out the top 10.


Pykie in regards to the Lark Medal, Robertson won by one vote. Second was Luke Jackson.

 

[Davo-27]

The discussion I was referring to was highlighting that people have concerns over Robertson’s kick but not Serong’s. Yet by the stats, Serong was worse.

The main point I was trying to get across, is I’m not sure if Serong is a top 10 talent. But the counterpoint is, that in a weaker draft, someone has to round out the top 10.


Pykie in regards to the Lark Medal, Robertson won by one vote. Second was Luke Jackson.

im a massive fan of Serongs, i love how he plays and his influence on games, i like that he takes risks instead of playing it safe, thats just me, im a fan of people who take positive risks even if they dont work out, rather than a player playing it safe by going sideways ect, it shows confidence in themselves and their team mates, stats can be a good guide AFTER you have seen them play as they can also be misleading without context imo, i believe and i could be wrong that Serongs real disposal (not counting chipping to a free player) is better then Robertson's, but i like Robertsons accumulation, which is arguably more important?

 

[LemmingMaster]

I am more inline with briztoon, I do have concerns with Serong's kicking and decision making at times. We are talking about a top 10 player, so you have to split a few hairs along the way when deciding your ranks.

 

[Davo-27]

I am more inline with briztoon, I do have concerns with Serong's kicking and decision making at times. We are talking about a top 10 player, so you have to split a few hairs along the way when deciding your ranks.

personally the only 2 players who were rated highly that i was concerned over their disposal was Robertson and D.Stephens and they are both top 10 prospects, which goes against your theory.

although i have to say compared to last year the 2019 Champs were full of errors

 

[LemmingMaster]

personally the only 2 players who were rated highly that i was concerned over their disposal was Robertson and D.Stephens and they are both top 10 prospects, which goes against your theory.

although i have to say compared to last year the 2019 Champs were full of errors

How does it go against my theory?
If I'm picking Young or Ash or Serong... I personally pick the other two due to their kicking and decision making.
I also think Rowell makes good decisions and kicks to advantage.

 

[Pykie]

The discussion I was referring to was highlighting that people have concerns over Robertson’s kick but not Serong’s. Yet by the stats, Serong was worse.

The main point I was trying to get across, is I’m not sure if Serong is a top 10 talent. But the counterpoint is, that in a weaker draft, someone has to round out the top 10.


Pykie in regards to the Lark Medal, Robertson won by one vote. Second was Luke Jackson.

I wasn't debating with you over DE%, I was debating the merits of this draft and height as a deciding factor in his case.

I'm not sure why you are running with the "weaker" draft line, if it's in a comparison to 2018, sure, but you aren't. It's a fairly standard draft with actually some decent depth through to the third round.

As for the Larke, I know what the standings were and it was as per my point, WA won, hence the two boys were ahead, I think you'd find if Vic Country managed to get up Serong (Vic Country MVP) was just as likely. Either way, he had a better carnival than Higgins or Ainsworth (Who had a reasonably poor one) managed.

 

[briztoon]

I wasn't debating with you over DE%, I was debating the merits of this draft and height as a deciding factor in his case.

I'm not sure why you are running with the "weaker" draft line, if it's in a comparison to 2018, sure, but you aren't. It's a fairly standard draft with actually some decent depth through to the third round.

As for the Larke, I know what the standings were and it was as per my point, WA won, hence the two boys were ahead, I think you'd find if Vic Country managed to get up Serong (Vic Country MVP) was just as likely. Either way, he had a better carnival than Higgins or Ainsworth (Who had a reasonably poor one) managed.

Ok let’s stick to your first two paragraphs.

Height as deciding factor absolutely should impact upon decisions. Especially if it might impact upon the players position at AFL level.

Cal Twomey first raised at what position Serong is likely to start his AFL career. He said Serong likely starts as a pressure and goal scoring small forward, similar to Ainsworth, as both players have the same questions over them at the next level. Do they have the tank and size to play regular midfield minutes.

The question was never about skills or ability. It was purely about size to play against bigger midfields.

Another draft focused podcast discussed Serong and the question of where he plays, where they rate him, and potential draft range in a bit more depth.

And the comparison was against Rowell and Robertson. Rowell at the same height has a far greater impact, makes smarter and safer decisions, and is much more consistent.

People don’t have the questions in regards Rowell, that they do with Serong.

Robertson is 5cm taller, which likely gives him a bigger wingspan, and the ability to out mark Serong, play at heavier weight, hold his own against more opponents.

The question is which player has the greatest skills and ability, and can those skills make up for playing against players 5cm, 10cm or 15cm taller.


As for the discussion about the strength and depth of this draft.

Again I’m referring to other people’s views.

This draft is very shallow on top end talent.

Certainly compared to the previous four drafts.

From my view has less first and second round talent than possibly the last four drafts, with the possible exception of 2017.

And 2017 second round was bolstered by the mature age talent that doesn’t look to be there this year.

Again referring to discussions here in the BF trial Phantom Draft, and draft focused podcast.

It’s been a common comment that this years talent looks to go about 30 deep.

The podcast I have been referring to said the second round talent goes out to pick 32. The same podcast said the first round talent goes to pick 16.

Not that it effects the over all depth of talent, but it does effect the talent available in the open pool, they included 5 academy or father son kids.

 

[eDPS]

Disappointed attending my first Nab League game for awhile and Sam De Koning is a late out. Glad Hayden Young decided to turn it on after quarter time to show he could have an impact as a midfielder.

Flanders was disappointing as was Comben in a dirty game for him especially with the lack of talls Dandenong had. Cahill pretty solid as was Baldi and I’m really liking Brock Smith he could prove extremely valuable in the finals down back as he offers them great stability and flexibility to play as an undersized key defender.

Zach Reid is certainly one to watch for next year and showed his Dustin Fletcher like traits with his smart ball use and kicking for his size and ability to get a timely fist and chase down tackle small forwards.

 

[LemmingMaster]

I don't mind Cahill, interesting to see how people view him differently to McHenry from last years draft.

Young is still my personal top ranked player, just some potential with that kick of his. If anyone has his testing results and shows he has a super tank, he is locked up high for me.

 

[Qfxonaa]

Disappointed attending my first Nab League game for awhile and Sam De Koning is a late out. Glad Hayden Young decided to turn it on after quarter time to show he could have an impact as a midfielder.

Flanders was disappointing as was Comben in a dirty game for him especially with the lack of talls Dandenong had. Cahill pretty solid as was Baldi and I’m really liking Brock Smith he could prove extremely valuable in the finals down back as he offers them great stability and flexibility to play as an undersized key defender.

Zach Reid is certainly one to watch for next year and showed his Dustin Fletcher like traits with his smart ball use and kicking for his size and ability to get a timely fist and chase down tackle small forwards.

It was an interesting game to watch.
Loved Hayden young, the smother after his mistake was huge. Was best on for me.
Brock Smith was very good!
Interested in your thoughts on pepper. Showed a bit for me!
Also really liked sparkes game.

 

[Les Malone]

WA should have two under 18's team in the champs like Vic, WA has a population twice of SA and very good depth through the colts, also on a per capita basis has more football players than Vic which balances up the population difference.

 

[Les Malone]

eDPS Rolling Mock Draft
22/07/2019
View attachment 713560

No offence, but as per usual a extremely Vic centric draft, which will not reflect reality in a couple of years through hindsight, not trying to disparage your hard work though.

 

[eDPS]

No offence, but as per usual a extremely Vic centric draft, which will not reflect reality in a couple of years through hindsight, not trying to disparage your hard work though.

Which interstate players in particular did I miss?

 

[Les Malone]

Which interstate players in particular did I miss?

23 Vic players out of 40, does not reflect the closeness of the state under 18's camps, where in one instance the allies beat Vic metro at Geelong, WA lost one game in the wet to SA kicking 4.11 and SA only lost by one point to Vic country.

Vic metro finished last on the ladder.

 

[eDPS]

23 Vic players out of 40, does not reflect the closeness of the state under 18's camps, where in one instance the allies beat Vic metro at Geelong, WA lost one game in the wet to SA kicking 4.11 and SA only lost by one point to Vic country.

Vic metro finished last on the ladder.

Eastern Ranges had 11 players drafted in one year and got knocked out in the elimination final, champs results mean didly squat

 

[Les Malone]

Eastern Ranges had 11 players drafted in one year and got knocked out in the elimination final, champs results mean didly squat

Possibly the 3 best midfielders running around - Fyfe, Cripps and Yeo all went to Aquinas college in Perth, drafted 20th, 13th and 30th, my bet all would have gone top 5 if Victorian.

That's just a small example.

 

[Les Malone]

Also the only WA boy in your top ten who just happens to be tenth! has always had pretty average kicking skills.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Also the only WA boy in your top ten who just happens to be tenth! has always had pretty average kicking skills.

Do you feel like suggesting names that are missed?
It is all well and good throwing stones but some added thoughts would be great. Sometimes a champion team beats a team of champions.
Henry, Rivers Sharp are the three names that could be top ten. Maybe Jackson but rucks often drift on draft day.

 

[eDPS]

Do you feel like suggesting names that are missed?
It is all well and good throwing stones but some added thoughts would be great. Sometimes a champion team beats a team of champions.
Henry, Rivers Sharp are the three names that could be top ten. Maybe Jackson but rucks often drift on draft day.

And I have them higher than most

 

[Les Malone]

Do you feel like suggesting names that are missed?
It is all well and good throwing stones but some added thoughts would be great. Sometimes a champion team beats a team of champions.
Henry, Rivers Sharp are the three names that could be top ten. Maybe Jackson but rucks often drift on draft day.

i could put up a whole heap of names, in fact i could put up some names who i think were very unlucky to miss out on the squad, or who beat the so called name players in trials, i realise though it is all subjective, my point is that these so called champion teams who beat teams of champions are used interchangeably depending on who Victoria beats or loses to in any given year.

Also, i am not throwing stones, i realise the hard work that has gone into these mock drafts, i just think over a period of time that WA boys are perennially underrated and this mock draft just backs my theory, Robertson is a good inside tough midfielder with good hands and quite suspect kicking skills that will be found out and i have seen him play since year 7, there are better FOOTBALLERS than him running around in Perth.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

i could put up a whole heap of names, in fact i could put up some names who i think were very unlucky to miss out on the squad, or who beat the so called name players in trials

Release those names please.

 

[LemmingMaster]

i could put up a whole heap of names, in fact i could put up some names who i think were very unlucky to miss out on the squad, or who beat the so called name players in trials, i realise though it is all subjective, my point is that these so called champion teams who beat teams of champions are used interchangeably depending on who Victoria beats or loses to in any given year.

Also, i am not throwing stones, i realise the hard work that has gone into these mock drafts, i just think over a period of time that WA boys are perennially underrated and this mock draft just backs my theory, Robertson is a good inside tough midfielder with good hands and quite suspect kicking skills that will be found out and i have seen him play since year 7, there are better FOOTBALLERS than him running around in Perth.

Once again, feel free to suggest some options. Currently at the moment your input into this discussion is to be critical without offering alternate options.

Maybe if you say Joe Bloggs that did not even make the WA team is a better option than Robertson, then people can look into that player and make up their own minds.
Especially considering it is very hard for a Victorian based mug punter to get much vision of WA talent.

 

[Pykie]

Possibly the 3 best midfielders running around - Fyfe, Cripps and Yeo all went to Aquinas college in Perth, drafted 20th, 13th and 30th, my bet all would have gone top 5 if Victorian.

That's just a small example.

Great.

Aquinas probably gets smacked by the top 20 Victorian school football sides.


There’s absolutely no way Nat Fyfe deserved to be a top 10, let alone top 5 pick in his draft year.

He was a skinny, mercurial, low possession half forward flanker.

 

[borderbarry]

eDPS you have nominated 40 players, which ones are indigenous?