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Draft Watcher eDPS Draft Watch 2020

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jesterwester said:
That AFL formula that determines the compensation is heavily weighted to getting the result they want.

So I’m sure Adelaide will apply for a compensation pick, on the basis of a disastrous season, then to be turned down by the AFL commission on the basis that they made a Grand final 3 years ago and that much of their issues Now are self inflicted.

Privately they recognise the troubles Adelaide are in. So, when Adelaide ships off Brad Crouch, maybe even pays part of his new contract and the AFL then decides that the formula has conveniently calculated a first round pick for his loss to the football club, given his age, contract size and whatever else they need to do to get it over the line.
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Even with weighting for age, he’d have to be paid in and around the top 35 or so players in the league.

You actually have to have a club willing to do that, it’s not just a hypothetical, generally the only ones with cap space like that are bottom 8 sides.

I don’t see a suitor that is going to make Crouch their second or third highest paid player.

Also, Adelaide can’t pay a % of a contract that doesn’t exist yet and doesn’t exist in their TPP.
 
jesterwester said:
That AFL formula that determines the compensation is heavily weighted to getting the result they want.

So I’m sure Adelaide will apply for a compensation pick, on the basis of a disastrous season, then to be turned down by the AFL commission on the basis that they made a Grand final 3 years ago and that much of their issues Now are self inflicted.

Privately they recognise the troubles Adelaide are in. So, when Adelaide ships off Brad Crouch, maybe even pays part of his new contract and the AFL then decides that the formula has conveniently calculated a first round pick for his loss to the football club, given his age, contract size and whatever else they need to do to get it over the line.
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Crouch is a restricted free agent, so Adelaide can not under any circumstances pay part of his wage if he signs for a new club.

If Adelaide were to re-sign Crouch and then trade him, then it’s a trade between two clubs. There’s no compensation from the AFL in trades.
 
Davo-27 said:
Players with family relations off the top of my head

Elijah Hollands son of Ben Hollands, Richmond player (no father son as Ben had a limited career)
Luke Edwards son of Tyson Edwards, Adelaide Player
Taj Schofield son of Jarrad Schofield, Port Adel Player
Even McPherson son of Steven McPherson, WB Player
Maurice Rioli Jnr son of Maurice Rioli, Richmond Player

Oliver Henry brother of Jack Henry (Geel)
Finlay Macrae brother of Jackson Macrae (WB)
Blake Coleman brother of Keidan Coleman (Bris)
Josh Green brother of Tom Green (GWS)

Ira Jetta, not sure, but possibly related to the couple of Jetta's in the AFL?

Thats all i can think of, happy to be corrected.
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Tom Powell - father Matthew played for the Crows, obviously not enough to qualify for F/S.

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Pykie said:
Even with weighting for age, he’d have to be paid in and around the top 35 or so players in the league.

You actually have to have a club willing to do that, it’s not just a hypothetical, generally the only ones with cap space like that are bottom 8 sides.

I don’t see a suitor that is going to make Crouch their second or third highest paid player.

Also, Adelaide can’t pay a % of a contract that doesn’t exist yet and doesn’t exist in their TPP.
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too true - we need this guy to connect the dots for us

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Pykie said:
Even with weighting for age, he’d have to be paid in and around the top 35 or so players in the league.

You actually have to have a club willing to do that, it’s not just a hypothetical, generally the only ones with cap space like that are bottom 8 sides.

I don’t see a suitor that is going to make Crouch their second or third highest paid player.

Also, Adelaide can’t pay a % of a contract that doesn’t exist yet and doesn’t exist in their TPP.
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Yeah fair enough- I don’t believe any club will, either. He’s worth getting, in a club with a better balanced midfield he will be a really good get. But not for millions.

The point I was trying to get across is that My cynical hat just thinks that the AFL will add whatever it needs to to get the result it really wants. Contract and Age not enough? Let’s throw in BNF results. Still not enough? Let’s add in something about leadership.

With a formula not publicly released it opens up so much options for the league to do what they want. Which is what I think they will do.
 
Nope, Campbell's not top 5. He's not even worth a third rounder. There's nothing to see here. You should all focus on players from states other than NSW.
 
jesterwester said:
Yeah fair enough- I don’t believe any club will, either. He’s worth getting, in a club with a better balanced midfield he will be a really good get. But not for millions.

The point I was trying to get across is that My cynical hat just thinks that the AFL will add whatever it needs to to get the result it really wants. Contract and Age not enough? Let’s throw in BNF results. Still not enough? Let’s add in something about leadership.

With a formula not publicly released it opens up so much options for the league to do what they want. Which is what I think they will do.
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The formula is publicly released.

You need to be in the top 5% of paid players in the league and they add weighting points due to your age for every player in the comp. I believe the maximum weighting is around 12 points.

Every player in the comp is ranked. If he falls in that top 37 or so players after weighting, it's Band 1.

It's not rocket science and AA and B&F results have nothing do with the weighting, you must assume if they are B&F winners and AA winners it's accounted for in their respective contract values.

It's not the total contract value that's relevant, purely the annual $/year salary ranking.

Simple maths tells you on average it should be roughly the top 1 or 2 paid players in each of the 18 sides would qualify for Band 1 depending on age.

Based on the top 50 paid players Fox or the Hun released a month or so ago, Crouch would have to get around $700k/yr to get Band 1. Is someone going to offer that? Especially during Covid? Teams would quite concievably be looking at dropping TPP's to 92.5% to cover for massive off field commercial 2020 losses.


Crouch is relatively young, so that is a positive. However nobody knows the exact makeup of that top 40, there could quite concievably be players in that 30-60 range from GC that might be getting well overs at a very young age (Ben King as an example), who would get maximum weighting and rank him in the top 35. There'd be others you wouldn't expect also.
 
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Pykie said:
The formula is publicly released.

You need to be in the top 5% of paid players in the league and they add weighting points due to your age for every player in the comp. I believe the maximum weighting is around 12 points.

Every player in the comp is ranked. If he falls in that top 37 or so players after weighting, it's Band 1.

It's not rocket science and AA and B&F results have nothing do with the weighting, you must assume if they are B&F winners and AA winners it's accounted for in their respective contract values.

It's not the total contract value that's relevant, purely the annual $/year salary ranking.

Simple maths tells you on average it should be roughly the top 1 or 2 paid players in each of the 18 sides would qualify for Band 1 depending on age.

Based on the top 50 paid players Fox or the Hun released a month or so ago, Crouch would have to get around $700k/yr to get Band 1. Is someone going to offer that? Especially during Covid? Teams would quite concievably be looking at dropping TPP's to 92.5% to cover for massive off field commercial 2020 losses.


Crouch is relatively young, so that is a positive. However nobody knows the exact makeup of that top 40, there could quite concievably be players in that 30-60 range from GC that might be getting well overs at a very young age (Ben King as an example), who would get maximum weighting and rank him in the top 35. There'd be others you wouldn't expect also.
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Oh, no argument there. A team will pick him up and do very well but not for that kind of big dollars. 550-650k I think if he left he would get On the open market, depending on contract length.. He isn’t a bad footballer when fit.

it’s this part of the formula that I was referring to, I should clarify. As taken from the AFL.

In applying the formula, an expert committee reviews the formula outcomes. The committee has the power to recommend alternative outcomes to GM – Football Operations where the formula produces a materially anomalous result.

The cynic in me believes Adelaide will get pick 2 if he leaves, regardless of where he sits in that ranking.
 
eDPS said:
View attachment 938878
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Did anyone side out and jump in eDPS? It looks similar..

Still be surprised if we go those 3 talls.... id think Perkins at 14 would tempt ... anyway everyones an expert. ..NOT

What do you like about Cox to have him in front of Reid ? ... and who is the best runner in the draft; we do tend to like guys who do good times in the distance run at the Combine.
 
Turbocat said:
Did anyone side out and jump in eDPS? It looks similar..

Still be surprised if we go those 3 talls.... id think Perkins at 14 would tempt ... anyway everyones an expert. ..NOT

What do you like about Cox to have him in front of Reid ? ... and who is the best runner in the draft; we do tend to like guys who do good times in the distance run at the Combine.
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Haha nope although i should try and get a few different names in there since its very tight for those late picks anyway. I went somewhat best available for Cats and yeah i dont think you will take 3 talls either.

Cox is more dynamic than Reid and is a bit more versatile. Both have terrific skills for their size and both are great athletes aswell.

These where the scores in the yo-yo of players that look draftable

Harry Sharp 22.4
Noah Gadsby 22.1
Nathan O'Driscoll 21.8
Sam Berry 21.7
Liam Kolar 21.7
Heath Chapman 21.6
Joel Western 21.5
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan 21.3
Logan McDonald 21.3
Nik Cox 21.1
Lachlan Jones 21.1
 
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jesterwester said:
That AFL formula that determines the compensation is heavily weighted to getting the result they want.

So I’m sure Adelaide will apply for a compensation pick, on the basis of a disastrous season, then to be turned down by the AFL commission on the basis that they made a Grand final 3 years ago and that much of their issues Now are self inflicted.

Privately they recognise the troubles Adelaide are in. So, when Adelaide ships off Brad Crouch, maybe even pays part of his new contract and the AFL then decides that the formula has conveniently calculated a first round pick for his loss to the football club, given his age, contract size and whatever else they need to do to get it over the line.
Click to expand...

Crows definitely having a shocking season but they aren't a basketcase club like most of the others given a handout.

2019 draft: McASey has played 10 games(83%), Schoenberg 3(25%), Worrell 0(0%), O'Connor 0(0%), Gollant 0(0%).
2018: Jones 18(53%), McHenry 8(24%), Hamill 8(24%).
2017: Fogarty 19(34%), McPherson 6(11%)
2016: Gallucci 27(35%), Poholke 14(18%), Himmelberg 14(18%)

It is hard to make the case that you are in need of more young talent when you have barely played the young talent you have recruited over the last four years. The basketcase sides that needed the help have pretty much needed all that talent on field to be competitive.

If you are going to shove a player out of the club who wants to remain in the hope of getting a pick that is far beyond the value of the player then it is incumbent on the AFL to say no, especially when the club is barely playing their kids.
 
eDPS I'm kinda stuck on getting McDonald any way we can so much so that I would give up a future 1st with out current first to get pick 2 from the Kangas and some back change to match bids.
A) Do you think this is possible
B) Would you do it
C) Any North fans out there that like this idea?

My reasoning is that there are two potentially generational WA KPFs coming through this year and next with McDonald and Van Rooyen and we have Tabs who is 28, Lobb who isnt a front line KPF (and 28) and Hogan who is unreliable and I can see us hitting an almighty hole in 4 years when our draftee's since 2016 are hitting absolute prime and we dont have a KPF to kick to. Think we need to make sure we get one of McDonald or Van Rooyen
 
Snuffaluphagus said:
eDPS I'm kinda stuck on getting McDonald any way we can so much so that I would give up a future 1st with out current first to get pick 2 from the Kangas and some back change to match bids.
A) Do you think this is possible
B) Would you do it
C) Any North fans out there that like this idea?

My reasoning is that there are two potentially generational WA KPFs coming through this year and next with McDonald and Van Rooyen and we have Tabs who is 28, Lobb who isnt a front line KPF (and 28) and Hogan who is unreliable and I can see us hitting an almighty hole in 4 years when our draftee's since 2016 are hitting absolute prime and we dont have a KPF to kick to. Think we need to make sure we get one of McDonald or Van Rooyen
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As much as I like McDonald I think that’s giving away too much, at this stage I don’t think the gap is big enough where your current pick is to do a deal like that. On any given day I might prefer O’Driscoll over McDonald who I have going at your pick right now. Future picks should only be traded for absolute stars imo as it’s going to be a doozy. There are some decent talls next year aswell with Alex Lukic, Morgan Ferres and Luke Taylor just of the top of my head and I’d be confident at this stage that Van Rooyen should be available at your first next year as he isn’t in my top 20 for 2021 as of yet.
 

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If clubs don't bid on Campbell and Mcinnes before Sydney and Pies first picks to keep them honest they are idiots. campbell is top 5 and Mcinness is top 10 so win win.
 
eDPS said:
As much as I like McDonald I think that’s giving away too much, at this stage I don’t think the gap is big enough where your current pick is to do a deal like that. On any given day I might prefer O’Driscoll over McDonald who I have going at your pick right now. Future picks should only be traded for absolute stars imo as it’s going to be a doozy. There are some decent talls next year aswell with Alex Lukic, Morgan Ferres and Luke Taylor just of the top of my head and I’d be confident at this stage that Van Rooyen should be available at your first next year as he isn’t in my top 20 for 2021 as of yet.
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Thanks, interesting on Van Rooyen, I know he's getting a bit of hype over here so probably shows the strength of next years draft.
 
Snuffaluphagus said:
Thanks, interesting on Van Rooyen, I know he's getting a bit of hype over here so probably shows the strength of next years draft.
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Yeah it’s nothing against him he is a great young prospect.
 
I’m not sure what came over me to do this but thought I’d update some of my draft ranges for the player summaries i did but because so many have changed i decided to just put a list up of 60 of my favourite prospects and made ups draft range for them. Not to say anyone not on this a list shouldn’t be top 60 prospects i just can’t go too crazy haha.

Kaine Baldwin 10-40
Sam Berry 20-50
Jake Bowey 25-60
Cody Brand 20-45
Tanner Bruhn 5-20
Braeden Campbell 3-15
Jackson Callow 20-45
Jackson Cardillo 20-45
Jack Carroll 20-45
Bailey Chamberlain 25-60
Heath Chapman 5-25
Blake Coleman 20-50
Brayden Cook 20-50
Nik Cox 3-15
Oliver Davis 30-Late
Connor Downie 20-45
Corey Durdin 30-Late
Zac Dumesny 20-45
Luke Edwards 25-50
Denver Grainger-Barras 3-15
Errol Gulden 20-45
Cameron Fleeton 25-60
Eddie Ford 15-35
Clayton Gay 25-60
Jack Ginnivan 30-Late
Max Heath 25-50
Oliver Henry 5-20
Darby Hipwell 30-Late
Elijah Hollands 1-10
Jaiden Hunter 30-Late
Lachlan Jones 5-20
Charlie Lazzaro 25-60
Bailey Laurie 20-50
Finlay Macrae 15-40
Zavier Maher 10-35
Logan McDonald 1-10
Reef McInness 5-20
Liam McMahon 30-Late
Zac Meloncelli 30-Late
Carter Michael 30-Late
Shannon Neale 15-40
Tariek Newchurch 20-50
Nathan O’Driscoll 3-15
Luke Pedlar 20-50
Archie Perkins 5-25
Will Phillips 1-10
Caleb Poulter 10-35
Tom Powell 10-30
Zach Reid 5-25
Fraser Rosman 30-Late
Taj Schofield 30-Late
Harry Sharp 30-Late
Connor Stone 20-50
Riley Thilthorpe 3-15
Zane Trew 5-20
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan 1-5
Brandon Walker 15-40
Joel Western 30-Late
Isiah Winder 30-Late
Hagan Wright 20-50
 
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