Foley#41
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There have been 90 games so far this year for a total of 180 scores.
To the end of round 10 last year there were 89 games, as Suns & Power had a bye in round 10 to allow time to clear customs in China.
The average score for all teams to round 10 this year has been 80.4 points.
The average score to round 10 last year was 83.1 points.
Now this might seem like a drop in scores, but a simple statistical analysis (2-tailed Student t-test for those who care) shows that these two numbers are not statistically different (p=0.28*). That is to say, statistically that difference in numbers could be just due to random variation and do not represent a meaningful change in either direction.
Conclusion: average score for all games is no different to last year. Not lower, but not higher either.
WTF you might say. Surely scoring has been lower this year.
Well not on average it hasn't. However....
If you look at the average score for winning teams there has been a drop.
2018 average winning score: 99.8
2019 average winning score: 93.9
That does represent a significant fall (p=0.040), so the average score for winning teams has fallen.
What about average score for losing teams? Well, that hasn't changed at all:
2018 average losing score: 66.3
2019 average losing score: 66.9
Not surprisingly, these are statically the same (p=0.83). Average losing scores are unchanged.
Now, since the winning score has fallen but the losing score is the same, that must mean the games are closer right?
Well actually it does. The average margin has fallen so far this year:
2018 average margin: 33.4
2019 average margin: 27.0
These are (just) statically significant (p=0.049), meaning that the margin this season is really lower than last season. The difference may not be meaningful in your mind but has change a bit.
Want more proof that games are closer? Well, the number of games decided by less than two goals and less than one goal has also risen:
2018 margin < 12 points: 15 games —- 2018 margin < 6 points: 7 games
2019 margin < 12 points: 20 games —- 2019 margin < 6 points: 15 games
In summary:
For the first 10 rounds of the season, compared to the first 10 rounds of 2018, the average score has not changed but the games are closer.
Now, it's not possible to say why this has happened. Certainly the new rules have not increased scoring to this stage, but they probably haven't wrecked the game in the way that some people, including me, thought they would.
If you have any questions, or would like any further analysis, I'd be happy to have a look (within the limits of my basic statistical abilities).
*I've included the p values for those who are familiar with statistical analysis. Essentially, if the p value is < 0.05 it means that there is less than 1 in 20 chance that the difference in numbers is due to random variation, a commonly accepted cutoff for a real (rather than a random) difference.
To the end of round 10 last year there were 89 games, as Suns & Power had a bye in round 10 to allow time to clear customs in China.
The average score for all teams to round 10 this year has been 80.4 points.
The average score to round 10 last year was 83.1 points.
Now this might seem like a drop in scores, but a simple statistical analysis (2-tailed Student t-test for those who care) shows that these two numbers are not statistically different (p=0.28*). That is to say, statistically that difference in numbers could be just due to random variation and do not represent a meaningful change in either direction.
Conclusion: average score for all games is no different to last year. Not lower, but not higher either.
WTF you might say. Surely scoring has been lower this year.
Well not on average it hasn't. However....
If you look at the average score for winning teams there has been a drop.
2018 average winning score: 99.8
2019 average winning score: 93.9
That does represent a significant fall (p=0.040), so the average score for winning teams has fallen.
What about average score for losing teams? Well, that hasn't changed at all:
2018 average losing score: 66.3
2019 average losing score: 66.9
Not surprisingly, these are statically the same (p=0.83). Average losing scores are unchanged.
Now, since the winning score has fallen but the losing score is the same, that must mean the games are closer right?
Well actually it does. The average margin has fallen so far this year:
2018 average margin: 33.4
2019 average margin: 27.0
These are (just) statically significant (p=0.049), meaning that the margin this season is really lower than last season. The difference may not be meaningful in your mind but has change a bit.
Want more proof that games are closer? Well, the number of games decided by less than two goals and less than one goal has also risen:
2018 margin < 12 points: 15 games —- 2018 margin < 6 points: 7 games
2019 margin < 12 points: 20 games —- 2019 margin < 6 points: 15 games
In summary:
For the first 10 rounds of the season, compared to the first 10 rounds of 2018, the average score has not changed but the games are closer.
Now, it's not possible to say why this has happened. Certainly the new rules have not increased scoring to this stage, but they probably haven't wrecked the game in the way that some people, including me, thought they would.
If you have any questions, or would like any further analysis, I'd be happy to have a look (within the limits of my basic statistical abilities).
*I've included the p values for those who are familiar with statistical analysis. Essentially, if the p value is < 0.05 it means that there is less than 1 in 20 chance that the difference in numbers is due to random variation, a commonly accepted cutoff for a real (rather than a random) difference.
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