Mega Thread Elimination final opponent discussion

[SpryCorpse]

Yep - we need that experience as our last finals games have all been thrashings. Many on the North board see parallels between the 1993 North team and this year. We were booted out week 1 of the finals that year before winning a final in 1994 (and famously losing to your mob). We probably need to make the finals a few years in a row to become a serious challenger.

North were super impressive against the Pies. I haven't seen a lot of North until that game. Very strong looking bunch of players, skillful and, above all, very confident at the moment. After being jumped by the Pies they calmly rolled up their sleeves and got about the business of imposing themselves on the match and really bullied the Pies a bit after that.
They've beaten us, Adelaide, Collingwood, Carlton and StKilda along the way and are on a big roll at the moment.
I think they are the team to avoid to start the finals - hope that someone else can take them out for us.
I'm less concerned about any of the other possibles in week one of finals.

 

[Ricketts]

Eagles or Dockers for mine.

 

[Turbocat]

My imagination sees Taylor hunt screw a floater from the forward pocket to the top of the square, Hawkins out-bodies scotty Thompson then slots one from 15 out after the siren. Cats by a goal.

Takes it one handed too!! Gee , I hope not supa. Id hope Hawk doesn't wait till then to kick a goal.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Looking at the ladder the pies and eagles game doesn't even matter that much really.

Eagles have 10% percentage advantage and a game in hand over North so if the eagles beat pies then they will finish 5th, not 6th.

If they lose to the pies, then hawks in melbourne, we need to beat Dogs and Sydney to overtake them.

We need the Hawks to beat them in Melbourne, otherwise it is in our hands.

North however play GWS in the last round and they could make that gap up...everyone remember when Hawthorn got over 10 % against GWS? The danger is that if North win their last two, and WC win one and lose one, WC could drop below 125 (particularly if one of the losses is heavy) and North get up to 125.

To back this up, according to the ladder predictor:
-If North beat Freo by 30 then GWS by 100
-And WC beat Pies by 12 and lose to the Hawks by 60

Then North would be 1 % ahead of WC and we would go to Perth.

Under this scenario the only way we get above WC is if we beat the Dogs by 100 and the Swans by 30, which is a big ask.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

West Coast won't win another game this year.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

West Coast won't win another game this year.

Wouldn't bet on that, Pies aren't exactly in very good form and WC are much better at home than anywhere else.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Wouldn't bet on that, Pies aren't exactly in very good form and WC are much better at home than anywhere else.

West Coast are ordinary.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

West Coast are ordinary.

I agree, but I still think they are a pretty good chance to beat Pies at home.

 

[Claude Balls]

Surely West Coat or Freo in Melbourne. Whatever happens, the best chance we have of progressing to a Prelim is to not play too taxing a QF. As someone else mentioned, North are physically a reasonably strong side, and they have a fit, strong midfield. If we beat them in a hard fought contest I could see us fronting up the next week a little buggered. Despite our good recent form, we do have a lot of older chaps and a lot of kids in the team.

 

[topic97]

I just had a play around with the ladder predictor & if we win the remaining games we could well be finishing 5th and facing Carlton first week of finals.

Id back us heavily for that one!!

On the flip side if it pans out like I think we may be facing Hawthorn second week & I Have a sneaking suspicion if we put the game away I wouldnt discount them sniping as it would be the straw that broke the camels back with the kennett curse!!

 

[topic97]

And anyone had a peek over on the Hawks board?
They are banning opposition supporters & removing their posts if they mention anything about the Buddy 3 strikes rumor thats been going around.

....worried much.....

 

[SJ]

I wasn't aware that Carlton is a fair chance of finishing 8th. I would not want to play them in the first week if they had the form to get to that position.

 

[Hoffy95]

We need to win both games and hope Pies beat WC this weekend otherwise fair chance we travel to Subi.

 

[topic97]

I wasn't aware that Carlton is a fair chance of finishing 8th. I would not want to play them in the first week if they had the form to get to that position.

I wouldnt be all that worried SJ.
They have good coast this weekend which you would imagine is a win, and saints the following week which will be tough but winnable.

My reasoning is they will get in only if they win the final 2 games and freo goes down to north this week.

It's hardly a run that would make the heavy hitters worried if they got there.
Having said that they have exposed us for pace in the past.

 

[SleazySimon]

Collingwood ay. They never win on the rare occasions you want them to (hawthorn and north games). They have a good interstate record and Dane swan coming back so lets hope they do the job at subi.

 

[LongBomb]

The Eagles are done. We should play them week 1 at the MCG which would be a great result.

 

[fpm84]

The Eagles are done. We should play them week 1 at the MCG which would be a great result.

I just did the ladder predictor and had the same. I have us and North Melbourne winning both of our games and West Coast losing both. North finishing ahead of us on percentage and playing Carlton, us finishing 6th and playing West Coast. Would gladly take that result.

 

[SJ]

I wouldnt be all that worried SJ.
They have good coast this weekend which you would imagine is a win, and saints the following week which will be tough but winnable.

My reasoning is they will get in only if they win the final 2 games and freo goes down to north this week.

It's hardly a run that would make the heavy hitters worried if they got there.
Having said that they have exposed us for pace in the past.

Our Achilles heel is a weakness against teams with strong midfields and quick forward lines.

Carlton is a good chance to win both those matches (particularly as St Kilda won't have anything to play for in Round 23). North is likely to defeat Fremantle this week.

That will mean Carlton will be up and about heading into an elimination final. They almost beat us earlier in the year when they were at their worst and were missing a number of their best players.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

We need to win both games and hope Pies beat WC this weekend otherwise fair chance we travel to Subi.

What we want to happen depends on whether we think Eagles will beat the Hawks or not.

If they win both they finish 5th and if they lose both they finish 7th (if we beat Sydney). It's if they go 1-1 that we could be stuck in the twilight zone and be off to Subi.

 

[year of the cat]

Wouldn't like to meet Carlton week one - I reckon they have turned the corner now and will play some pretty good footy for the rest of the season however long that is. Hopefully the Dockers do us a favour in beating the Kangaroos this weekend which will finish their season.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Our Achilles heal is a weakness against teams with strong midfields and quick forward lines.

Carlton is a good chance to win both those matches (particularly as St Kilda won't have anything to play for in Round 23). North is likely to defeat Fremantle this week.

That will mean Carlton will be up and about heading into an elimination final. They almost beat us earlier in the year when they were at their worst and were missing a number of their best players.

Assuming North don't beat Freo then yes it comes down to whether Carlton beat GC by more than Freo beat Melbourne, and they may just get in.

In any case it doesn't matter to us as we are unlikely to finish 5th and have to play them-assuming the Eagles lose and 5th becomes open, North are likely to beat Freo and GWS by a greater margin than we beat WB and Syd, so realistically our best result is 6th-we will either finish 6th or 7th.

 

[topic97]

Our Achilles heal is a weakness against teams with strong midfields and quick forward lines.

Carlton is a good chance to win both those matches (particularly as St Kilda won't have anything to play for in Round 23). North is likely to defeat Fremantle this week.

That will mean Carlton will be up and about heading into an elimination final. They almost beat us earlier in the year when they were at their worst and were missing a number of their best players.

Yeah but we weren't in anywhere near the form we are now last time we played them either.

Especially the form of a one T.Hawkins, not to mention possibly Varcoe if he carries any form from last weekend could well play a running HB role which would be fantastic against their smaller forwards.

It's sure going to be an interesting few rounds that's for sure!!

 

[SpryCorpse]

Wouldn't like to meet Carlton week one - I reckon they have turned the corner now and will play some pretty good footy for the rest of the season however long that is. Hopefully the Dockers do us a favour in beating the Kangaroos this weekend which will finish their season.

From what I saw of the Roos on the weekend, the Dockers have as much chance of beating them as I do.

 

[year of the cat]

From what I saw of the Roos on the weekend, the Dockers have as much chance of beating them as I do.

Think you are right. Lyon's eyes will roll out of his head by the end of the game if last week is anything to go by!!

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Our Achilles heel is a weakness against teams with strong midfields and quick forward lines.

Carlton is a good chance to win both those matches (particularly as St Kilda won't have anything to play for in Round 23). North is likely to defeat Fremantle this week.

That will mean Carlton will be up and about heading into an elimination final. They almost beat us earlier in the year when they were at their worst and were missing a number of their best players.

In hindsight, it would have been a great help to us if the Fremantle v Melbourne and Carlton v St Kilda games in Round 23 had been reversed, so St Kilda played on the Saturday and Fremantle on the Sunday. If that had happened, St Kilda would not have been mathematically eliminated from the finals race until Fremantle's game against Melbourne had finished. But is it stands, it's the final nail in St Kilda's 2012 coffin will almost certainly go in by about 10:30 on Saturday night.