Thought I'd try the predictor.
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Mega Thread Elimination final opponent discussion
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If we were to win week 1 I reckon we will be making a trip to boganville in week 2.
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Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Huh?
How do you have North on 116. They're on 115 now and have GWS to come. If they go 2-0 their % will be way above 116 surely. In fact they are probably going to be in the 120s.
I didn't bother too much with %. I don't see how it matters.
I just did it again and was more generous in the margins. I got them up to 118.5
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
We have three teams who are on 60, and then 5th/6th/7th could possibly all finish on the same points. Of course % matters, this year more than any other. Not much point doing the predictor unless you make some calls on % (i.e. North +100 vs GWS).
Just to back this up, I did the predictor with the following:
-North beat Freo by 30, GWS by 100
-WC beat Pies by 12, lose to Hawks by 60
-Cats beat Dogs by 60, Swans by 12.
All three finish 60 points with North 120.6, WC 119.5 and Geelong 117.3. So % can have a big role to play.
I did make calls. But I gave no one a 100 point win.
Gave plenty 60 points and made a lot of calls on lower margins i.e. Hawks beating Swans by 12 points.
But I'm not about to go insane trying to get the margins correct. If I could do that with any accuracy across 18 games I'd be rich.
Gave plenty 60 points and made a lot of calls on lower margins i.e. Hawks beating Swans by 12 points.
But I'm not about to go insane trying to get the margins correct. If I could do that with any accuracy across 18 games I'd be rich.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
True. We can't predict the margins.
Although a tiring GWS is a good bet to get triple figures if ever there was one.
Regardless my point is % does matter. Just by changing the margins in the predictor (without changing any of the actual WL results) you can move 5th 6th and 7th around, which shows it's pretty close.
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North will be no push over. Good balanced side.
SJ
Premium Platinum
And, most importantly, in form.
The plus for us is the fact most won't have finals experience, and that they play a 'dry weather' game. Run and carry, handball happy. They 'cheat' by getting players ahead of the ball and take risks to move the ball quickly through them, via their young and deep midfield. If conditions are wet or in any way difficult, they may struggle to come to terms with this, particularly with the added pressure of finals footy.
fpm84
Premium Gold
Agree, they play Etihad superbly but it's very hard to gauge how their gameplan works on the MCG as they've only played there once (and took until the last minute of the game to put away Richmond). When St Kilda were dominant in 2009-10, they were almost unbeatable at Etihad but nowhere near as powerful at the 'G.
Not many teams have two AA-quality key defenders like we do in Lonergan and Taylor, so we're fairly well placed to limit the influence of Petrie and Tarrant/Hansen.
SJ
Premium Platinum
They won't be the threat - as with Carlton (and Collingwood, and Hawthorn, and almost any team that can beat us) the threat will be the goals from the midfield and the small forwards. I don't remember the figures but when North beat us earlier in the year, their midfield kicked a staggering amount of goals.
Not to mention the Fact that North has only had one game at the MCG this year in front of a 47,000 crowd - its gonna be a lot different for them playing only their 2nd MCG game, finals footy in front of 60k + crowd in quite possibly wet conditions.
It skews it heavily to our favor if that happens.
But at the end of the day we have to beat whoever is in front of us.
fpm84
Premium Gold
Ziebell and Bastinac kicked four each. As did Edwards who isn't in the team any longer.
Their scoring spread seems to have changed a bit since then. Looking at the stats on Footywire - Petrie, Tarrant and Hansen kicked 8 between them v Collingwood, 6 v Essendon (surprisingly Petrie didn't kick one) and 9 v Bulldogs in the past three weeks.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
Like SJ said, it's the mids and small forwards as well as the pace at the front and back half that will worry us.
In round 3, even with an avalanche of ball coming in, Taylor restricted Petrie very well. The only one who got exposed was Gillies. Our 3 defensive talls (Gillies won't play of course) are as good as any in the league so I have no worries there. It's the pace factor over the 22 that worries me more.
GarnerSmash
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73 goals between them since round 12, which is less than 50% of all goals scored since then. Thomas and Harvey are good for a few, as is Harper, so the forwards do their job.
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This is the way I see it happening, which means we play Eagles in Perth week 1 of the finals :-(
BallerO
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You're assuming Sydney will beat us at SS in 2 weeks.
At their home ground, when we were not in form, they barely just beat us. I think we have a good chance of beating them in 2 weeks if we have most of our best team playing.
We loose to Sydney and we play West Coast at their ground.
We beat Sydney and we play Carlton.
I thought the whole thread was about assumptions.
I think the Eagles will lose their last two, so we need to be sure to win our last two to make sure we climb above them, otherwise a trip to Perth beckons.
Pure_Ownage
TheBrownDog
That would be a better result though than 1-1, because then it's out of our hands to an extent.
At least if they lose both we have the pressure of having to beat Syd but we are in control of our destiny.
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I agree with those saying the Eagles won't win anything for the rest of the year. Kennedy won't make much of a difference and they're toast even playing Collingwood in Subi with the bungle brothers up front on this Saturday. It's possible we get them at the G, I'd prefer the Dockers upset Norf on Sunday to be honest.
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