Mega Thread Elimination final opponent discussion

[vinum coupe]

Why are West Coast done?
If anything they've shown this year that they have some depth and are pretty resilient.
They did enough on the weekend and they beat us the week before.

Yes they have 2 tough games to come, but I'd hardly call them done.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Why are West Coast done?
If anything they've shown this year that they have some depth and are pretty resilient.
They did enough on the weekend and they beat us the week before.

Yes they have 2 tough games to come, but I'd hardly call them done.

They're average. Falling over the line against a Geelong side missing several key players and a few who were injured during the match, told the story for me.

I'd be very surprised if they won another game this year.

 

[LongBomb]

They're average. Falling over the line against a Geelong side missing several key players and a few who were injured during the match, told the story for me.

I'd be very surprised if they won another game this year.

I'm of the same opinion. If they lose to Collingwood (which I think they will) they will miss out on a home final and bomb out in week one.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I'm of the same opinion. If they lose to Collingwood (which I think they will) they will miss out on a home final and bomb out in week one.

Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong are their likely next 3 opponants. All I say to Eagles supporters is good luck finding a win from that group.

 

[candiehappy]

Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong are their likely next 3 opponants. All I say to Eagles supporters is good luck finding a win from that group.

I agree - but - I would not want to be playing them in Perth in the first final. That increases the degree of difficulty enormously. Having the best ruck combo in the league always makes them dangerous. They are really missing LeCras.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I agree - but - I would not want to be playing them in Perth in the first final. That increases the degree of difficulty enormously. Having the best ruck combo in the league always makes them dangerous. They are really missing LeCras.

If they lose their next 2 the final will be at the MCG.(assuming we win our last 2)

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

We can still make the top 4 believe it or not, If the following results occur.

RD 22

West Coast d Collingwood by 12 points
Geelong d Bulldogs by 100
Nth Melb d Fremantle by 12 or Fremantle win

RD 23

Hawthorn d West Coast by 60 points
Geelong d Sydney by 30 points
Nth Melb d GWS by 100 points
Essendon d Collingwood

It's unlikely but those 7 results aren't out of the realms of possibility. If they happen the ladder will end up the following.

4. Geelong 60 120.6%
5. Nth Melb 60 119.6%
6. West Coast 60 119.5%
7. Coll'wood 60 115.8%
8. Carlton/Fremantle

Geelong should field their best possible line-up this week and try to win by as much as possible.

 

[LongBomb]

We can still make the top 4 believe it or not, If the following results occur.

RD 22

West Coast d Collingwood by 12 points
Geelong d Bulldogs by 100
Nth Melb d Fremantle by 12 or Fremantle win

RD 23

Hawthorn d West Coast by 60 points
Geelong d Sydney by 30 points
Nth Melb d GWS by 100 points
Essendon d Collingwood

It's unlikely but those 7 results aren't out of the realms of possibility. If they happen the ladder will end up the following.

4. Geelong 60 120.6%
5. Nth Melb 60 119.6%
6. West Coast 60 119.5%
7. Coll'wood 60 115.8%
8. Carlton/Fremantle

Geelong should field their best possible line-up this week and try to win by as much as possible.

No way known Collingwood will lose their last 2.

Interestingly if we really smash the Bulldogs this opens up the possibility that we could end up 5th and play Carlton (8th). I would much prefer we finish 6th and play West Coast.

It's obviously going to be a lot clearer after this round.

 

[candiehappy]

If they lose their next 2 the final will be at the MCG.(assuming we win our last 2)

it's the assumption that we beat Sydney that worries me .....

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

No way known Collingwood will lose their last 2.

Interestingly if we really smash the Bulldogs this opens up the possibility that we could end up 5th and play Carlton (8th). I would much prefer we finish 6th and play West Coast.

It's obviously going to be a lot clearer after this round.

I said it was unlikely, but all those results are still possible. Essendon always lift for Pies matches but it'll be all in vein if the Pies win this weekend.

I was merely throwing out the point that a top 4 berth is still possible.

If Fremantle beat the Kangeroos this week, they'll finish 8th. Carlton still need to beat St.Kilda in the last round to have any chance of finals.

It's an interesting final 2 weeks we're about to witness.

it's the assumption that we beat Sydney that worries me .....

I'm confident we'll beat the Swans.

 

[Stig_90]

Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong are their likely next 3 opponants. All I say to Eagles supporters is good luck finding a win from that group.

They could beat the Pies this week, the Pies are actually in worse form. I wouldn't underrate the Eagles. I want to avoid having to travel to play them in finals at all costs.

 

[candiehappy]

more chance of swans beating us than essendon beating the pies IMO. All I'm saying is that we must throw the kitchen sink at the bulldogs game. There are too many variables and too much risk not to play our best team. Beat the dogs (by a good margin) and then see where the ladder is, work out the next permeation's, and select the team for the last round accordingly.

 

[Scottland2007]

Nth Melb, as long as its at the G and the Nth boys run into our half of the ground during warm up and try to beat up our forward. It was a good omen in 07.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

No way known Collingwood will lose their last 2.

Interestingly if we really smash the Bulldogs this opens up the possibility that we could end up 5th and play Carlton (8th). I would much prefer we finish 6th and play West Coast.

It's obviously going to be a lot clearer after this round.

Or Fremantle, and while I wouldn't want to face Carlton I'd be delighted to play Freo in Melb. In any case I doubt we get 5th ahead of North (even if the Eagles drop) given they have GWS to come. Possible but not likely.

Simply put we have to smash the Dogs by as much as possible to ensure that our worst finish is 6th, not 7th, which avoids a trip to Perth. The margin becomes especially important if the Eagles win this week.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

more chance of swans beating us than essendon beating the pies IMO. All I'm saying is that we must throw the kitchen sink at the bulldogs game. There are too many variables and too much risk not to play our best team. Beat the dogs (by a good margin) and then see where the ladder is, work out the next permeation's, and select the team for the last round accordingly.

Geelong should field their best possible line-up this week and try to win by as much as possible.

I'm in no way saying that my assumption will happen at all. I wanted to stipulate the possibilty of the top 4 still within reach, which is why I said we should field our best possible side this week and put the foot down.

Nobody within their right mind would confidently declare an Essendon victory over Collingwood but in a 2 horse race anything is possible.

The point of my post was until it's impossible there is always hope.

 

[Belisarius]

North will most likely win both games so will finsh 5th - and we will be 6 th.

The game that seems to make the biggest difference is the Freo v North game.

I like the look of North and reckon they will beat Freo over here.

But if Freo win - and the Cats beat the Swannies - then we finish 5th.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

North will most likely win both games so will finsh 5th - and we will be 6 th.

The game that seems to make the biggest difference is the Freo v North game.

I like the look of North and reckon they will beat Freo over here.

But if Freo win - and the Cats beat the Swannies - then we finish 5th.

Both of us winning 2 games only gets 5th for them and 6th for us if WC go 0-2. If they go 1-1 then it's all down to % as all three teams will finish on the same points.

Reckon North will get Freo although wouldn't be unhappy if Freo win.

 

[proboy]

Has North even played at the MCG this year?

 

[fpm84]

Has North even played at the MCG this year?

Once, they beat Richmond by 4 points in round 17.

 

[Belisarius]

Both of us winning 2 games only gets 5th for them and 6th for us if WC go 0-2. If they go 1-1 then it's all down to % as all three teams will finish on the same points.

Reckon North will get Freo although wouldn't be unhappy if Freo win.

From what I saw WC have injuries and are not playing as well as they did earlier in the year. To beat us by only 5 points at home with injuries to Hawkins, Bundy and Orren - and with players out like Kelly and Chappy - that seems like a poor result for them.

They have two hard games to finish off - and could well lose both - so without any serious conviction - we will finish 6 th it seems. But bloody hell - who knows with upsets occuring regularly of late !

 

[Belisarius]

I would prefer to play Freo than North at this stage. Even with Sandilands back that exposes our achillies heel - the rucks.

But Freo will need to beat North. Being at Pattersons - it could happen. But North in really good form.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I said it was unlikely, but all those results are still possible. Essendon always lift for Pies matches but it'll be all in vein if the Pies win this weekend.

I was merely throwing out the point that a top 4 berth is still possible.

The other thing to remember is the percentage implications for a twelve point (or any) margin will be completely different, depending on what the final scores are. So while the ladder predictor is good to get a rough gauge, it can't really be taken as gospel. Though the idea of somehow sneaking into fourth and coming up against Hawthorn at the MCG does make me chuckle.

If North defeats Fremantle 60-48, their percentage increases slightly. If they win 140-128, it decreases slightly. We're only talking like 0.4%, but that could be the difference in this race, considering the gap between us and North is currently 0.5%.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I would prefer to play Freo than North at this stage. Even with Sandilands back that exposes our achillies heel - the rucks.

But Freo will need to beat North. Being at Pattersons - it could happen. But North in really good form.

It's at Etihad.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

The other thing to remember is the percentage implications for a twelve point (or any) margin will be completely different, depending on what the final scores are. So while the ladder predictor is good to get a rough gauge, it can't really be taken as gospel. Though the idea of somehow sneaking into fourth and coming up against Hawthorn at the MCG does make me chuckle.

If North defeats Fremantle 60-48, their percentage increases slightly. If they win 140-128, it decreases slightly. We're only talking like 0.4%, but that could be the difference in this race.

That's true and it's so hard to gauge. Like somebody else has previously stated, the predictor needs to offer more variants in regards to possible margins.

Mathmatically i suppose it's still possible to finish in the top 4, but I'm more concerned at the moment with trying to avoid having to play in Perth the first week. While I think we'd win fairly comfortably in Perth, the ramifications of playing a semi-final after a game in Perth could take it's toll, particularly if we have to travel interstate again in the second week.

 

[proboy]

Once, they beat Richmond by 4 points in round 17.

In that case a Sat night at the G I would happily play north. In the dew on th big ground I would be confident of a win. They can't play inside forever.