Mega Thread Elimination final opponent discussion

[Pure_Ownage]

From what I saw WC have injuries and are not playing as well as they did earlier in the year. To beat us by only 5 points at home with injuries to Hawkins, Bundy and Orren - and with players out like Kelly and Chappy - that seems like a poor result for them.

They have two hard games to finish off - and could well lose both - so without any serious conviction - we will finish 6 th it seems. But bloody hell - who knows with upsets occuring regularly of late !

Collingwood are making the hardest road trip in footy though with a couple of underdone players (looks like Johnson or Krak will come back in) and possibly no Jolly gives WC a big advantage to work with in the centre.

I reckon the Eagles are a pretty good chance to get up, but I'd be happy if they didn't.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

In that case a Sat night at the G I would happily play north. In the dew on th big ground I would be confident of a win. They can't play inside forever.

Doubt it will be a night game.

CH7 will probably want the QF's at night so I would expect we are going to play Sat arvo (if it's against North).

 

[candiehappy]

Mathmatically i suppose it's still possible to finish in the top 4, but I'm more concerned at the moment with trying to avoid having to play in Perth the first week.

agree with this, the biggest threat of all

 

[fpm84]

Doubt it will be a night game.

CH7 will probably want the QF's at night so I would expect we are going to play Sat arvo (if it's against North).

I think it could be Sunday afternoon if we play North, Saturday afternoon if we play a WA team in Melbourne (to give them the time to travel home and prepare for the next week if they win).

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

I think it could be Sunday afternoon if we play North, Saturday afternoon if we play a WA team in Melbourne (to give them the time to travel home and prepare for the next week if they win).

It will be interesting if West Coast stays in fifth and Carlton sneaks into eighth. Factoring in the trip to Perth, they'd have to put it on Sunday, which would give the Eagles a nine day break before a home game. The ideal finish for the AFL would be:

1. Hawthorn
2. Sydney
3. Adelaide
4. Collingwood
5. West Coast
6. North Melbourne/Geelong
7. North Melbourne/Geelong
8. Fremantle

If that happened, Hawthorn v Collingwood (MCG) would have to be the Friday night game, we'd play North (MCG) on the Saturday, Sydney would play Adelaide (ANZ) on Saturday night and West Coast would play Fremantle (Patersons) on the Sunday.

 

[Agis]

Im factoring in 2 scenarios and 2 scenarios only - Collingwood def West Coast and West Coast def Collingwood - No other game matters, As long as we defeat the dogs this weekend.

Collingwood win they will finish 3rd lose and they finish 4th no chance at making 10% on Adelaide. Hawthorn will beat Sydney this weekend at the SCG
West Coast will finish 7th if they lose both there games. 5th if they win against Collingwood.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Only half correct.

WC are guaranteed to finish 7th if they go 0-2 but not guaranteed to finish 5th unless they also beat Haw. If they beat Pies and lose to Hawks they could still finish 5th 6th or 7th, as could we (and North).

 

[Agis]

Only half correct.

WC are guaranteed to finish 7th if they go 0-2 but not guaranteed to finish 5th unless they also beat Haw. If they beat Pies and lose to Hawks they could still finish 5th 6th or 7th, as could we (and North).

how can they they.. have a superior percentage to finish 5th if they lose to hawthorn (taking into account thats after Geelong wins by 60+ to Bulldogs as well as North winning to GWS by 60+ points) . Fremantle will be a close game so will Sydney.. I cant see West Coast falling lower than 5th based on winning to collingwood then losing to hawthorn by around 30 points, even the top 4 is up for grabs should collingwood lose both of there games in a tight contest against West Coast and Essendon (unlikely but possible) and either sides Geelong or North Melbourne could get in if they have ~140+ result over 2 games. West Coast will not beat Hawthorn at the MCG im sure thats written in as a win already.. but ofc strange things happen (like last weekends unexpected upset in Brisbane). So West Coast still have the percemtage on us should the magpies loose the last 2 games.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

how can they they.. have a superior percentage to finish 5th if they lose to hawthorn (taking into account thats after Geelong wins by 60+ to Bulldogs as well as North winning to GWS by 60+ points) . Fremantle will be a close game so will Sydney.. I cant see West Coast falling lower than 5th based on winning to collingwood then losing to hawthorn by around 30 points, even the top 4 is up for grabs should collingwood lose both of there games in a tight contest against West Coast and Essendon (unlikely but possible) and either sides Geelong or North Melbourne could get in if they have ~140+ result over 2 games. West Coast will not beat Hawthorn at the MCG im sure thats written in as a win already.. but ofc strange things happen (like last weekends unexpected upset in Brisbane). So West Coast still have the percemtage on us should the magpies loose the last 2 games.

West Coast beats Collingwood 120-115
West Coast loses to Hawthorn 75-120

Drops them over 5% to 119.74

Geelong beats Western Bulldogs 140-55
Geelong beats Sydney 100-65

Pushes us up 5.5% to 120.21

It wouldn't take anything too outrageous for us to go ahead of the Eagles on percentage.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

how can they they.. have a superior percentage to finish 5th if they lose to hawthorn (taking into account thats after Geelong wins by 60+ to Bulldogs as well as North winning to GWS by 60+ points) . Fremantle will be a close game so will Sydney.. I cant see West Coast falling lower than 5th based on winning to collingwood then losing to hawthorn by around 30 points, even the top 4 is up for grabs should collingwood lose both of there games in a tight contest against West Coast and Essendon (unlikely but possible) and either sides Geelong or North Melbourne could get in if they have ~140+ result over 2 games. West Coast will not beat Hawthorn at the MCG im sure thats written in as a win already.. but ofc strange things happen (like last weekends unexpected upset in Brisbane). So West Coast still have the percemtage on us should the magpies loose the last 2 games.

WC can fall lower than 5th if they lose either of their games by a lot, which is quite possible against Hawthorn, and North has a massive win over GWS or we go massive over the Dogs, we could pass them on %.

We actually don't want Coll to lose both their last 2 as due to their % they would then drop to 7th and we may well have to play them in the first week. What is more preferable is if WC beat Haw (unlikely I know) + Coll beat Ess, then Coll don't finish lower than 5th but probably have to go interstate in the 2nd week.

 

[LongBomb]

Freo spanking North has really shaken things up.

We are now on track to finish 6th and play the Dockers in week one. This is a great result for us.

 

[Hoffy95]

Freo spanking North has really shaken things up.

We are now on track to finish 6th and play the Dockers in week one. This is a great result for us.

We have to beat Sydney or we're in all sorts.

 

[cynical]

if we beat sydney we get freo or north which is great if we lose we get most likely WCE which is terrible

 

[LongBomb]

We have to beat Sydney or we're in all sorts.

If we lose it's all down to percentage.

We could lose by 2 goals and Freo and North could both win by 5 and we would still be 6th.

Makes today's result even more frustrating. Had we won by 15 goals we would have been a lock for 6th.

 

[Senatorguesty]

Lets be honest boys if we cant beat the Swans AT HOME we dont deserve to go past week 1 of the finals.
So for me it almost doesnt matter what happens, win and we are in to our necks, lose and I dont care, our season is done.
Will be a cracking game!

 

[Gaz_Brownlow]

Lets be honest boys if we cant beat the Swans AT HOME we dont deserve to go past week 1 of the finals.
So for me it almost doesnt matter what happens, win and we are in to our necks, lose and I dont care, our season is done.
Will be a cracking game!

True, but it does mean that instead of being able to take a slightly conservative approach into the game, we will be gunning for it and have a hell of a finals warm up against a Sydney team hell bent on going to a top-two position.

 

[Ricketts]

We have to beat Sydney or we're in all sorts.

This is correct unfortunately. Must win next week.

 

[Geelong Dynasty]

Using a very quick and probably poor calculation I think if we lose to Sydney and Freo beat Melbourne by about 70 points we will have to travel to Perth to play Freo in week 1.

Not ideal...

Given that Sydney need a win against us to get a home final they will be playing to win.

Freo will smack the Dees.

Its a very likely result.

 

[LongBomb]

'A very likely result' ?
Come on - where has the trust in this team gone?

We will go in as favourites and beat Sydney.
And if we can't we wont be a player in the finals anyway.

Lets look at the best case scenario. We put Sydney away and we get a home final against Freo.
I like that a lot.

 

[Geelong Dynasty]

'A very likely result' ?
Come on - where has the trust in this team gone?

We will go in as favourites and beat Sydney.
And if we can't we wont be a player in the finals anyway.

I am hesitant to underestimate Sydney, but we need to win as much as they do so I do give us better then even money chance.
We would want to play alot better than we did today, which Im sure we will.

 

[LongBomb]

We always step up against the quality teams. Always.

 

[bulletproof]

I am very confident we will beat Sydney.

Freo in Melbourne is a good result, however, I would be just as happy with North. I think I would actually prefer North, because Fremantle is actually quite an experienced side with a coach who can pull something off.

15 wins and 115% should have got us in the top 4, so in a sense we have judged our season nicely, and an unfavourable draw has hurt us.

If West Coast game was in Geelong (which it should have been, given how rarely they have visited us) that is our top 4 place. That's enough moaning though, something brilliant might still be happening......

 

[supahoops]

Using a very quick and probably poor calculation I think if we lose to Sydney and Freo beat Melbourne by about 70 points we will have to travel to Perth to play Freo in week 1.

Not ideal...

Given that Sydney need a win against us to get a home final they will be playing to win.

Freo will smack the Dees.

Its a very likely result.

Given north play gws a loss would more likely mean west coast in Perth. Possibly collingwood at the g

 

[Geelong Dynasty]

Given north play gws a loss would more likely mean west coast in Perth. Possibly collingwood at the g

We need to win.

 

[supahoops]

Best case scenario:

Beat Sydney convincingly and head into September fearing no-one, with a near full list, our vfl team flying and history beckoning